Imagine a world where the number of silver-haired citizens will more than double, transforming our societies and economies in profound ways by the middle of this century.
Key Takeaways
- By 2050, the global population aged 60 years or over is projected to more than double from 1 billion in 2020 to 2.1 billion
- The number of persons aged 80 years or over is expected to triple by 2050 to 426 million worldwide
- In 2022, 1 in 6 people globally were aged 60 years or over, increasing to 1 in 4 by 2050
- Global life expectancy at birth rose from 66.8 years in 2000 to 73.3 in 2022
- Women globally outlive men by 5 years on average, with life expectancy of 76.6 vs 71.5 years in 2022
- Healthy life expectancy (HALE) globally stands at 63.7 years in 2022, up from 60.6 in 2000
- The old-age dependency ratio globally will rise from 15% in 2020 to 25% by 2050
- In Europe, the dependency ratio for those 65+ will reach 52% by 2050, meaning 52 elderly per 100 working-age
- Japan's old-age dependency ratio is projected at 80% by 2050, highest worldwide
- By 2050, pension spending in OECD countries will rise to 8.5% of GDP from 6.9% in 2019
- Global healthcare costs for aging will increase by 50% by 2050, reaching 10% of GDP in advanced economies
- Labor force participation rate for 65-69 year olds in OECD rose from 25% in 2000 to 35% in 2022
- By 2050, 2/3 of the global population 60+ will live in developing countries needing care systems
- Only 1 in 10 low-income countries have national aging policies as of 2023
- Age-friendly cities initiative covers 1,000+ cities worldwide, promoting inclusive urban planning for elderly
By 2050, the world's population will be much older and concentrated in Asia.
Dependency Ratios
- The old-age dependency ratio globally will rise from 15% in 2020 to 25% by 2050
- In Europe, the dependency ratio for those 65+ will reach 52% by 2050, meaning 52 elderly per 100 working-age
- Japan's old-age dependency ratio is projected at 80% by 2050, highest worldwide
- In the US, the ratio will increase from 29 in 2020 to 49 per 100 working-age by 2060
- China's dependency ratio for 65+ will peak at 47% in 2050
- South Korea's ratio is expected to hit 72% by 2050
- Italy's current ratio is 37%, projected to 52% by 2050
- Global child dependency ratio declines from 44% in 2020 to 25% by 2050, offset by rising old-age ratio
- In Germany, 36 elderly per 100 working-age in 2022, to 50 by 2050
- Brazil's ratio will rise from 15% to 38% by 2050
- Russia's old-age dependency ratio from 23% to 39% by 2050
- In the UK, ratio increases from 32% to 47% by 2050
- India's ratio low at 12% in 2020, to 22% by 2050
- Spain's ratio to reach 61% by 2050, second highest in Europe
- Australia's ratio from 29% to 44% by 2050
- France's projected ratio 48% by 2050
- Canada’s ratio to 47% by 2050 from 28% in 2020
Dependency Ratios Interpretation
Buckle up, the future holds a great inversion where the world's workforce will find itself simultaneously outnumbered by its retirees and under-recruited by its children.
Economic and Workforce Impacts
- By 2050, pension spending in OECD countries will rise to 8.5% of GDP from 6.9% in 2019
- Global healthcare costs for aging will increase by 50% by 2050, reaching 10% of GDP in advanced economies
- Labor force participation rate for 65-69 year olds in OECD rose from 25% in 2000 to 35% in 2022
- By 2030, 1 in 5 workers globally will be over 55, up from 1 in 8 in 2000
- US Social Security Trust Fund projected to deplete by 2035 due to aging demographics
- Europe's working-age population (15-64) will shrink by 20 million by 2050
- Global silver economy (goods/services for 50+) valued at $15 trillion in 2020, projected to $27 trillion by 2050
- In Japan, aging reduces potential GDP growth by 0.5-1% annually
- China's workforce peaked at 900 million in 2014, declining to 700 million by 2050
- Long-term care costs in high-income countries average 1.5% of GDP, rising to 2.5% by 2050
- Retirement age increases in OECD: average effective age worked to 64.5 for men in 2022 from 62.5 in 2000
- Aging contributes to 1-2% higher public debt in advanced economies by 2030
- Global investment needed for aging infrastructure: $15 trillion by 2040
- Women's unpaid care work for elderly averages 4.5 hours/day globally
- By 2030, 88% of older people in low-income countries will lack pension coverage
- 25% of OECD countries face labor shortages due to aging by 2030
- In the EU, long-term care needs will double by 2050, costing €200 billion annually extra
- 70% of people 80+ need long-term care, costing $1.2 trillion globally in 2022
Economic and Workforce Impacts Interpretation
Our pensions and healthcare costs are rising as we age, but our longer working lives and a booming 'silver economy' reveal a future that demands we finance not just our longer retirements but also a profound redesign of our societies.
Life Expectancy and Health
- Global life expectancy at birth rose from 66.8 years in 2000 to 73.3 in 2022
- Women globally outlive men by 5 years on average, with life expectancy of 76.6 vs 71.5 years in 2022
- Healthy life expectancy (HALE) globally stands at 63.7 years in 2022, up from 60.6 in 2000
- By 2030, 2 billion people worldwide will be 60+, with 80% in low- and middle-income countries facing multimorbidity
- Alzheimer's disease and other dementias affect 55 million people globally in 2023, projected to triple by 2050
- 1 in 6 people over 60 suffer from a mental health disorder like depression
- Hearing loss affects 1.5 billion people globally, with 430 million experiencing disabling hearing loss, mostly older adults
- Globally, 50 million people have dementia, expected to reach 152 million by 2050
- Falls cause 684,000 deaths annually worldwide, with 37.3 million falls severe enough for medical attention among elderly
- Sarcopenia affects up to 50% of people over 80 years old globally
- Osteoporosis causes 8.9 million fractures yearly, with 1.5 million hip fractures, mostly in those over 65
- Global prevalence of diabetes in adults 65+ is 19.1%, higher than younger groups
- 15% of adults aged 60+ have experienced physical elder abuse in the past year
- Multimorbidity affects 82% of those aged 65+ in high-income countries
- Vision impairment affects 2.2 billion people globally, 1 billion preventable, many elderly
Life Expectancy and Health Interpretation
While humanity's victory lap is longer than ever, with more of us living to blow out the candles, we're spending an increasing number of those hard-won years battling a daunting chorus of chronic ailments, from failing bodies to faltering minds.
Policy and Social Responses
- By 2050, 2/3 of the global population 60+ will live in developing countries needing care systems
- Only 1 in 10 low-income countries have national aging policies as of 2023
- Age-friendly cities initiative covers 1,000+ cities worldwide, promoting inclusive urban planning for elderly
- OECD countries' pension reforms since 2000 increased retirement age by 2.5 years on average
- Singapore's Pioneer Generation Package supports 450,000 seniors with healthcare subsidies
- Japan's Long-Term Care Insurance covers 6.5 million elderly since 2000, costing 2.5% GDP
- Universal health coverage reaches only 46% of those 65+ in low/middle-income countries
- Community-based care programs serve 100 million elderly in China via 200,000 centers
- Nordic countries lead in elderly care with 4-5% GDP spending on LTC, universal access
- India's National Programme for Health Care of Elderly covers 10 million since 2010
- 80% of US elderly live independently, supported by Medicare covering 63 million
- Australia's Aged Care Act 1997 reformed system for 250,000 residents in facilities
- Brazil's elderly receive BPC pension, reaching 5.8 million poor seniors monthly
- Germany's Pflegeversicherung insures 20 million for LTC since 1995
- South Africa's Older Persons Act 2006 protects rights, provides grants to 3.9 million
- Mexico's pension for elderly covers 11 million since 2019, $50/month
- In Europe, 40% of elderly live alone, prompting social isolation policies
- Thailand's universal coverage includes LTC pilot for 400,000 elderly
Policy and Social Responses Interpretation
The world is planning for its silver tsunami with a haphazard patchwork of sandbags, ranging from robust Nordic dikes and Japan's intricate plumbing to the many places still desperately trying to cup their hands.
Population Projections
- By 2050, the global population aged 60 years or over is projected to more than double from 1 billion in 2020 to 2.1 billion
- The number of persons aged 80 years or over is expected to triple by 2050 to 426 million worldwide
- In 2022, 1 in 6 people globally were aged 60 years or over, increasing to 1 in 4 by 2050
- Europe's share of the world's population aged 60+ will decline from 23% in 2020 to 19% in 2050 despite absolute growth
- Asia will host 60% of the world's population aged 60+ by 2050, up from 54% in 2020, totaling 1.3 billion people
- Africa's population aged 60+ is projected to grow from 91 million in 2020 to 243 million by 2050, a 170% increase
- By 2100, one in five people globally will be aged 65 or over, reaching 2.37 billion
- The global median age is expected to rise from 30.4 years in 2020 to 36.3 by 2050
- In Japan, 36% of the population is projected to be 65+ by 2050, highest globally
- China's elderly population (65+) will peak at 400 million by 2050, comprising 28% of its total population
- By 2030, the number of centenarians worldwide is expected to reach 3.7 million, up from 573,000 in 2020
- Latin America's 60+ population will grow from 93 million in 2020 to 199 million by 2050
- Northern America's 65+ population share will rise from 17% in 2020 to 23% by 2050
- By 2050, India will have 319 million people aged 60+, second only to China
- Oceania's elderly population (65+) will increase from 3.6 million in 2020 to 6.5 million by 2050
Population Projections Interpretation
The statistics reveal a profound demographic transformation where by mid-century the world will shift from every sixth person to every fourth person being over 60, a stark aging led by Asia's massive numbers, meaning we must build a society not just for the young, but for the two billion wise, wrinkled heads who will define our future.
Regional Variations
- Europe's population aged 65+ will rise from 20.6% in 2020 to 30.3% by 2100
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 60+ population to grow 160% by 2050 to 162 million
- Middle East and North Africa's elderly share from 7% to 14% by 2050
- In the US, non-Hispanic whites 65+ will drop from 75% to 55% by 2060 due to diversity
- South Asia's 60+ from 196 million to 544 million by 2050
- Eastern Europe's fertility rate at 1.5, accelerating aging faster than West
- Latin America and Caribbean's median age to 41 by 2050 from 31 in 2020
- In Canada, 25% of population 65+ by 2040, mostly in Atlantic provinces
- Western Asia's elderly population doubles to 40 million by 2050
- Australia's 65+ share highest in Tasmania at 21%, national 16% in 2022
- Central Asia's low aging, 65+ at 7% in 2050 vs global 16%
- UK's elderly concentration in South East England, 20% 65+
- Southern Europe's 65+ share 23% in 2022, highest continentally
- Nigeria's 60+ only 3% now, to 5% by 2050, youngest major region
- In the EU, Greece and Italy have 24% 65+, vs 15% in Ireland
Regional Variations Interpretation
The world is not so much getting older as it is getting a dramatically new face, with Europe gracefully retiring into its silver years while Africa bursts with youthful energy, all while our maps of aging are being redrawn by migration and plummeting birthrates.
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