While Christianity currently has the most followers, a powerful demographic surge is set to make Islam the world's fastest-growing and, by mid-century, largest religion.
Key Takeaways
- Islam is projected to be the fastest-growing major religion globally, with its population increasing by 73% from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.8 billion in 2050 according to Pew Research Center
- Between 2010 and 2050, Muslims are expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.68%, outpacing Christians at 1.38% and Hindus at 0.99%, per Pew analysis
- The global Muslim population reached 1.8 billion in 2015, representing 24% of the world's population and growing faster than any other religious group, states Pew Research
- Global Muslim population was 1.9 billion in 2020, expected to reach 2.76 billion by 2050, a 45% increase, per Pew Research Center's demographic projections
- In 2010, there were 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide, growing to an estimated 1.9 billion by 2020, a 19% rise, from Pew data
- Asia hosts 62% of the world's Muslims, approximately 1.2 billion in 2023, per World Population Review
- Muslim fertility rate averaged 3.1 births per woman in 2010-2015, highest among majors, driving 70% of growth, per Pew Research Center
- In sub-Saharan Africa, Muslim women had 4.5 children on average in 2010-2015, fueling regional Islam boom, Pew Africa demo
- Global Muslim TFR dropped from 4.3 in 1990-1995 to 2.9 in 2010-2015, still above replacement 2.1, UN data
- Islam saw 500,000 net conversions annually 2010-2015, mostly from Christianity in Africa, per Pew estimates
- In sub-Saharan Africa, 6 million Christians converted to Islam 2010-2050 projection, highest switch, Pew
- Europe's Muslim growth includes 3.5 million from conversions 2010-2050, medium scenario, Pew Europe
- Islam's growth outpaces Christianity's 1.38% with 1.68% 2010-2050, 73% vs 35% increase, Pew comparison
- Hindus grow at 0.99% annually vs Islam 1.68%, smaller base 1B vs 1.6B, Pew
- Buddhists decline -0.08% yearly while Islam surges 1.68%, Pew projections
Islam is projected to become the world's largest religion later this century.
Comparative Statistics
- Islam's growth outpaces Christianity's 1.38% with 1.68% 2010-2050, 73% vs 35% increase, Pew comparison
- Hindus grow at 0.99% annually vs Islam 1.68%, smaller base 1B vs 1.6B, Pew
- Buddhists decline -0.08% yearly while Islam surges 1.68%, Pew projections
- Jews grow slowest 0.15% vs Islam fastest, Pew global
- Unaffiliated grow 0.24% vs Islam 1.68%, rising from atheism low fertility, Pew
- Christianity adds 40 million 2010-2050 vs Islam 825 million, Pew absolute
- In Africa, Islam 2.5% growth vs Christianity 2.4% 2010-2015, near tie but Islam leads total, Pew Africa
- Europe: Muslims from 5% to 10% by 2050 vs Christians declining to 65%, Pew Europe
- US: Muslims 1% to 2.1% by 2050 vs Christians 78% to 66%, Pew US proj
- Asia: Islam 25% share stable vs Hinduism growth slower, Pew Asia
- MENA: Islam 93% dominant vs others shrinking, Pew
- Global fertility: Islam 2.9 vs Christian 2.6, Hindu 2.4, Unaffil 1.6 2010-15, Pew TFR
- Conversion nets: Islam +0.3%/yr vs Christianity -0.2%, Folk 0.1%, Pew switches
- By 2050, Islam 30% world pop vs Christianity 31%, near parity from 31% vs 23%, Pew
- Sub-Saharan: Muslims 30% to 38% vs Christians 63% stable, Pew Africa proj
- India: Muslims 14% to 18% by 2050 vs Hindus 77% to 76%, slower relative, Pew India
- Nigeria: Muslims near 50-50 with Christians now, Islam edging ahead growth-wise, Pew
- Europe's high migration scenario: Muslims 14% vs Christians 55% by 2050, Pew alt
- Latin America: Islam tiny 0.1% vs Catholic decline to 80%, stable low, Pew LA
- Retention US: Muslims 77% vs Protestants 64%, Catholics 59%, Pew retention
- Annual adds: Islam 35M/yr vs Christian 30M/yr 2020s est, Gordon-Conwell
- Islam projected overtake Christianity mid-century in adherents, from current 1.9B vs 2.3B, Pew trend
Comparative Statistics Interpretation
While demography isn't destiny, the current math suggests the 21st century's spiritual marketplace is seeing a notable shift in market share, driven significantly by differential birth rates and conversion trends, with Islam projected for substantial growth.
Conversion and Retention Statistics
- Islam saw 500,000 net conversions annually 2010-2015, mostly from Christianity in Africa, per Pew estimates
- In sub-Saharan Africa, 6 million Christians converted to Islam 2010-2050 projection, highest switch, Pew
- Europe's Muslim growth includes 3.5 million from conversions 2010-2050, medium scenario, Pew Europe
- US saw 100,000 annual net Muslim conversions 2000-2020, mostly women, Pew US
- Globally, Islam gains 2.5 million converts yearly net of apostasy, Gordon-Conwell 2023
- Retention rate for US Muslims 77% from cradle to adulthood, higher than Catholics 59%, Pew
- In Nigeria, 2 million conversions to Islam yearly amid tensions, local studies
- UK conversions to Islam averaged 5,000 per year 2010-2020, ONS census trends
- France estimates 100,000 conversions to Islam 2010-2020, IFOP polls
- Indonesia minimal conversions, high 98% retention, BPS religious stats
- Iran apostasy low, retention 95% Shia, underground surveys
- Global net conversion gain for Islam 12.6 million 2010-2050, small vs births, Pew
- Africa net 2.9 million Muslim gains from switches 2010-2050, Pew regional
- Asia minimal net conversions for Islam, growth birth-led, Pew Asia
- Latin America rare Islam conversions, under 50,000 total 2010-2020, WRD
- Muslim retention in US higher among immigrants 85% vs 65% converts, Pew
- Apostasy from Islam estimated 1-2 million yearly globally, offset by higher gains, researcher est
- In India, 50,000 annual conversions to Islam per govt records 2015-2020, NCRB
- Germany's 4,000 conversions to Islam yearly 2010-2019, BAMF stats
- Australia Muslim converts 2,000 per year, ABS census
- Retention among second-gen Muslims in West 80-90%, family influence, Pew surveys
- Islam gains from secular/non-religious 500,000 yearly globally, trend data
- Projections: Islam net conversion stable at 0.3 million/year to 2050, Pew
- High retention 95% in MENA Muslims, cultural factors, Arab Barometer
Conversion and Retention Statistics Interpretation
While Islam's rapid growth is often attributed to high birth rates, the quiet engine is actually a remarkably sticky faith that consistently gains more converts than it loses, especially in the West and Africa, despite the noisy global narrative.
Fertility and Birth Rates
- Muslim fertility rate averaged 3.1 births per woman in 2010-2015, highest among majors, driving 70% of growth, per Pew Research Center
- In sub-Saharan Africa, Muslim women had 4.5 children on average in 2010-2015, fueling regional Islam boom, Pew Africa demo
- Global Muslim TFR dropped from 4.3 in 1990-1995 to 2.9 in 2010-2015, still above replacement 2.1, UN data
- In MENA region, Muslim fertility at 2.9 in 2015, down from 4.5 in 1990s but above Christian 2.6, Pew
- Pakistani Muslim women averaged 3.6 births in 2017-2021, highest in South Asia, DHS survey
- Nigerian Muslim TFR 5.7 vs 4.4 Christian in northern regions 2018, NDHS data
- Indonesian Muslim fertility 2.3 in 2022, slightly above national 2.2, BPS
- In Europe, Muslim immigrant women TFR 2.6 vs 1.6 native in 2010-2015, Pew Europe
- Afghan Muslim TFR highest globally at 4.6 in 2022, per World Bank
- Yemen's 3.6 TFR for Muslims in 2023 amid crisis, still high, UN est
- Bangladesh Muslim women 2.0 TFR in 2022, converging to replacement, BBS
- Turkey's Muslim TFR fell to 1.9 in 2022, below replacement, TurkStat
- Iran's TFR 1.7 for Shia Muslims in 2023, lowest in Muslim world, Amar
- Egypt TFR 3.0 in 2023, down from 3.5, CAPMAS
- US Muslim women TFR 2.9 vs 1.8 national in 2011, Pew US survey
- France Muslim TFR estimated 2.5 in 2020s, contributing to growth, INSEE
- Global Muslim youth bulge: 60% under 30 in 2015, sustaining high births, Pew
- Muslim births worldwide: 86 million annually in 2020, 25% of global total, UN pop div
- In India, Muslim TFR 2.6 vs 2.0 Hindu in 2019-21, NFHS-5
- Saudi Arabia TFR 2.3 for Muslims in 2023, declining trend, GASTAT
- Algeria TFR 2.9 in 2023, ONS Algeria
- Morocco TFR 2.3 in 2023, HCP stats
- Malaysia Muslim TFR 1.9 in 2022, DOSM
- Muslim families average 4.5 members vs 4.0 global in 2020, household surveys
- Projections show Muslim TFR to 2.3 by 2050, still leading growth, Pew
- In sub-Saharan Africa, Islam grows primarily via 4.2 TFR vs 3.8 others 2010-2020, Pew
- Globally, 62% of Muslim growth 2010-2050 from births, 26% youth cohorts, Pew factors
- Muslim conversion rates net positive 0.3% annually, but births dominate at 2.5% growth component, World Religion DB
- Annual Muslim births exceed 80 million since 2015, peaking growth driver per UN
Fertility and Birth Rates Interpretation
While Islam's rapid growth is often attributed to robust birth rates—with higher-than-average fertility playing the key role—this demographic engine is neither universal nor permanent, as evidenced by its dramatic decline in many Muslim-majority nations.
Growth Rates and Projections
- Islam is projected to be the fastest-growing major religion globally, with its population increasing by 73% from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.8 billion in 2050 according to Pew Research Center
- Between 2010 and 2050, Muslims are expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.68%, outpacing Christians at 1.38% and Hindus at 0.99%, per Pew analysis
- The global Muslim population reached 1.8 billion in 2015, representing 24% of the world's population and growing faster than any other religious group, states Pew Research
- From 2015 to 2020, Islam's adherent count rose by approximately 347 million, a 20% increase, faster than Christianity's 15% per World Religion Database
- Projections indicate Islam will surpass Christianity as the largest religion by 2070, with annual growth of 1.7% through 2050 from Pew data
- In sub-Saharan Africa, Islam grew by 2.5% annually from 2010-2015, the highest regional rate globally per Pew
- Europe's Muslim population is forecasted to increase from 4.9% to 7.4% by 2050 under medium migration scenarios, driven by higher fertility, Pew reports
- Asia-Pacific Muslims grew from 1 billion to 1.1 billion between 2010-2015 at 1.5% yearly, outpacing global averages per World Population Review
- By 2050, Muslims will comprise 30% of the world's population, up from 23% in 2010, per updated Pew projections
- Islam's growth rate was 1.84% per year from 2000-2013, compared to global population growth of 1.09%, from Pew Forum data
- The number of Muslims worldwide hit 2.3 billion by 2023, with a decadal growth of 25% since 2010 per Gordon-Conwell estimates
- In the Middle East-North Africa, Muslim growth averaged 2.1% annually 2010-2020, highest among regions, Pew data
- Global Muslim fertility rate of 2.9 children per woman in 2015 drove 2.9% population growth that year, per Pew
- Islam added 232 million adherents from 1990-2010, a 46% increase, fastest among majors per Adherents.com analysis
- By 2030, Muslims projected to reach 2.2 billion, growing at 1.7% annually through the decade, Pew forecast
- From 2020-2025, Islam's growth rate estimated at 1.6%, adding 180 million followers per UN Population Division aligned data
- In 2022, daily Muslim births outnumbered deaths by 1.2 million, contributing to 1.8% annual growth, per demographic studies
- Muslim population doubled from 1990 to 2020 in Europe, from 30 million to 60 million, at 3.2% compound growth, Pew Europe report
- Global Islam growth projected to slow to 1.5% by 2050 but still lead majors by 0.3% margin, Pew long-term
- Between 2015-2020, Islam grew by 12% in absolute numbers, 347 million added, per World Religion Database 2021
- Indonesia's Muslim population grew 1.4% yearly 2010-2020, contributing 15% to global Islam growth, BPS Indonesia stats
- Pakistan saw 2.4% annual Muslim growth 2015-2020, fastest nationally, per national census
- Nigeria's Muslims increased by 2.8% per year 2010-2015, driving Africa's Islam boom, Pew Africa report
- By 2025, global Muslims expected at 2.0 billion, up 10% from 2020, per extrapolated Pew data
- Islam's share of world population rose from 19.6% in 1990 to 24.1% in 2020, per UN demographics
- From 2000-2020, Islam grew 92% in adherents vs. 44% for world population, World Bank aligned
- Annual Muslim growth rate peaked at 2.2% in 1990s, now 1.7% but still tops list, historical Pew
- In 2023 estimates, Islam added 25 million net per year, fastest absolute growth, Gordon-Conwell 2023
- Muslim youth (0-14) comprise 33% of adherents in 2020, fueling future growth at 1.6% annually, Pew youth demo
- By 2040, Islam projected to have 2.6 billion followers, 29% global share, extended Pew models
Growth Rates and Projections Interpretation
The Pew Research Center reports that Islam is projected to be the fastest-growing major religion globally, not due to mass conversion but because, quite literally, Muslim families are simply having more babies than anyone else.
Population Numbers
- Global Muslim population was 1.9 billion in 2020, expected to reach 2.76 billion by 2050, a 45% increase, per Pew Research Center's demographic projections
- In 2010, there were 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide, growing to an estimated 1.9 billion by 2020, a 19% rise, from Pew data
- Asia hosts 62% of the world's Muslims, approximately 1.2 billion in 2023, per World Population Review
- Sub-Saharan Africa's Muslim population stood at 248 million in 2010, reaching 300 million by 2020, Pew regional stats
- Europe's Muslim count was 44 million in 2010 (6%), projected 58 million by 2030, Pew Europe
- Indonesia has the largest Muslim population at 229 million in 2023, 87% of its total, BPS data
- Pakistan's Muslims numbered 220 million in 2023 census, 96% of population, PBS stats
- India's Muslim population is 200 million as of 2023 estimates, 14.2% national share, per government survey
- Nigeria has about 100 million Muslims in 2023, half its population, growing rapidly, World Bank
- Bangladesh Muslims at 153 million in 2022, 91% of 169 million total, BBS census
- Egypt's 95 million Muslims in 2023 represent 90% of 106 million, CAPMAS data
- Turkey's Muslim population is 84 million in 2023, 99% Sunni, TurkStat
- Iran's 83 million Muslims in 2023, 99% Shia, per national stats
- Middle East-North Africa has 341 million Muslims in 2020, 93% regional share, Pew
- US Muslims numbered 3.45 million in 2017, estimated 4 million by 2023, Pew US
- France has 5.7 million Muslims in 2023 (8.8% of 67 million), INSEE estimates
- Germany's Muslim population reached 5.5 million in 2023, 6.5% share, Destatis
- UK's Muslims at 4 million in 2021 census, 6.5% of 67 million, ONS data
- In 2050 projection, Muslims in India to reach 310 million, largest national group, Pew
- Global Muslim women numbered 900 million in 2020, half of adherents driving growth, UN Women demo
- Children under 15 Muslims: 600 million in 2020, 32% of total, Pew age data
- Shia Muslims globally 200 million in 2023, 10-13% of total Islam, per estimates
- Sunni Muslims 1.7 billion in 2023, 85-90% majority, World Religion DB
- Muslim population in China estimated 25 million in 2023, 1.8% share, NBS China
- Russia's 16 million Muslims in 2023, 11% of 146 million, Rosstat
Population Numbers Interpretation
While raw demographics show Islam's remarkable growth through higher birth rates, its future influence will ultimately be measured not just by numbers, but by how its diverse global community navigates the modern world.
Sources & References
- Reference 1PEWRESEARCHpewresearch.orgVisit source
- Reference 2GORDONCONWELLgordonconwell.eduVisit source
- Reference 3WORLDPOPULATIONREVIEWworldpopulationreview.comVisit source
- Reference 4PEWFORUMpewforum.orgVisit source
- Reference 5ADHERENTSadherents.comVisit source
- Reference 6POPULATIONpopulation.un.orgVisit source
- Reference 7BPSbps.go.idVisit source
- Reference 8PBSpbs.gov.pkVisit source
- Reference 9DATAdata.worldbank.orgVisit source
- Reference 10CENSUSINDIAcensusindia.gov.inVisit source
- Reference 11BBSbbs.gov.bdVisit source
- Reference 12CAPMAScapmas.gov.egVisit source
- Reference 13DATAdata.tuik.gov.trVisit source
- Reference 14AMARamar.org.irVisit source
- Reference 15INSEEinsee.frVisit source
- Reference 16DESTATISdestatis.deVisit source
- Reference 17ONSons.gov.ukVisit source
- Reference 18ENen.wikipedia.orgVisit source
- Reference 19STATSstats.gov.cnVisit source
- Reference 20ROSSTATrosstat.gov.ruVisit source
- Reference 21DHSPROGRAMdhsprogram.comVisit source
- Reference 22RCHIIPSrchiips.orgVisit source
- Reference 23GASTATgastat.gov.saVisit source
- Reference 24ONSons.dzVisit source
- Reference 25HCPhcp.maVisit source