The 2020 election wasn't just historic—it was a tidal wave of civic engagement that shattered a century-old record, and behind that unprecedented 66.8% turnout lies a complex story of shifting demographics, billions in campaign spending, and polling surprises that is reshaping American democracy.
Key Takeaways
- In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, voter turnout reached 66.8% of the citizen voting-age population, the highest rate in over a century, with 158.4 million votes cast.
- During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, turnout among eligible voters was 60.1%, with significant increases in early voting participation at 40 million ballots.
- In the 2018 midterm elections, voter turnout hit 50%, the highest for midterms since 1914, driven by suburban and young voter surges.
- Total 2024 election spending by candidates and committees exceeded $16 billion, shattering previous records.
- In 2020, presidential candidates raised $14.4 billion, with Biden at $1.6 billion and Trump at $1.1 billion.
- Super PACs spent $6.6 billion in 2020 cycle, 50% more than 2016.
- Hispanic voters favored Biden 65-32% in 2020 exit polls.
- Black voters supported Biden 87-12% in 2020, turnout 12% of electorate.
- White voters split 41-57% for Biden-Trump in 2020.
- National polls underestimated Trump support by 3.9 points in 2020.
- FiveThirtyEight final 2020 average: Biden +8.4, actual +4.5 margin.
- RCP average 2020: Biden +7.2, missed by 2.7 points.
- Biden won popular vote 51.3%-46.8% in 2020, 81M-74M votes.
- Trump won 25 states in 2020, Biden 25 + DC, 306-232 EV.
- 2016: Trump 304 EV, Clinton 227, popular 46.1-48.2%.
Recent elections show record turnout and spending driven by unprecedented participation.
Campaign Finance
- Total 2024 election spending by candidates and committees exceeded $16 billion, shattering previous records.
- In 2020, presidential candidates raised $14.4 billion, with Biden at $1.6 billion and Trump at $1.1 billion.
- Super PACs spent $6.6 billion in 2020 cycle, 50% more than 2016.
- 2022 midterms saw $8.9 billion in total spending, highest for non-presidential cycle.
- FEC data shows 2024 Democratic committees raised $4.2 billion vs. Republicans $2.8 billion by Q3.
- Dark money groups contributed $1.5 billion in 2020, undisclosed donors fueling ads.
- Individual contributions made up 64% of 2020 presidential funds, $9.2 billion total.
- Top donor Miriam Adelson gave $100 million to Trump-aligned PACs in 2024.
- Bloomberg self-funded $1 billion in 2020 Democratic primary, 90% of his total.
- Senate races in 2022 averaged $100 million per competitive seat spent.
- House races saw $2.5 billion spent in 2022, with incumbents outspending challengers 3:1.
- PAC contributions to federal candidates totaled $659 million in 2022 cycle.
- Outside spending by groups hit $2 billion in 2024 presidential race by October.
- Unions spent $200 million supporting Democrats in 2020, focused on battlegrounds.
- Corporate PACs gave $300 million evenly split between parties in 2022.
- Small donors (<$200) provided 30% of 2020 funds, $4.3 billion.
- Ad spending on TV/digital reached $7 billion in 2020 presidential.
- Georgia Senate runoffs 2021 cost $1 billion total, most expensive ever.
- 2016 saw $6.5 billion total election spending, Clinton raised $769 million.
- Crypto industry donated $150 million in 2024, favoring Republicans.
- Tech sector PACs gave $70 million in 2022, 60% to Democrats.
- Real estate donors contributed $200 million in 2020, Trump edge.
- Lobbyists bundled $50 million for candidates in 2022 cycle.
- State-level spending in 2020 exceeded $2 billion for governor races.
- Ballot measures drew $1.8 billion in 2022, pharma vs. drug pricing.
- Female candidates raised 10% less than males on average in 2022 House races.
- Incumbent advantage in fundraising: 2.5x challengers in 2020 Senate.
- Online fundraising platforms processed $5 billion in 2020 small donations.
- Foreign-linked dark money estimated at $100 million in 2020.
- 2024 cycle saw record $10 million+ mega-donors, 20 individuals.
- In 2020, national party committees raised $3.1 billion combined.
Campaign Finance Interpretation
American democracy has become a high-stakes auction where the highest bidders get the loudest megaphones, and the price of admission just hit a record sixteen billion dollars.
Election Results
- Biden won popular vote 51.3%-46.8% in 2020, 81M-74M votes.
- Trump won 25 states in 2020, Biden 25 + DC, 306-232 EV.
- 2016: Trump 304 EV, Clinton 227, popular 46.1-48.2%.
- Obama 2008: 365 EV, 52.9% popular, 69.5M votes.
- Bush 2004: 286 EV, 50.7% popular, closest since 1976.
- GA flipped blue 2020: Biden +0.23%, first Dem win 1992.
- AZ 2020: Biden +0.31%, first Dem since 1996.
- WI 2020 margin +0.63% Biden, recount confirmed.
- 2022 Senate: Dems +1 seat to 51, despite House loss.
- House 2022: GOP 222-213 majority.
- 2018 House: Dems flipped 41 seats, 235-199 majority.
- Trump popular vote 74.2M, most ever for loser 2020.
- Biden flipped 5 Obama-Trump counties key to 2020 win.
- Voter fraud claims 2020: <0.0001% ballots affected.
- 537 votes decided FL 2000 for Bush.
- Reagan 1984: 525 EV, 58.8% popular landslide.
- Nixon 1972: 520 EV, 60.7% popular.
- Closest EV: Hayes-Tilden 1876, 185-184.
- 2020 mail votes: Biden 65%, Trump 33%.
- Third parties 1.8% 2020, lowest since 2000.
- Women candidates won 27% House seats 2020.
- GOP House gains 2022 driven by inflation backlash.
- Dems lost white working-class by 30+ points 2020.
- Trump improved Black support +10 points 2020 vs 2016.
- Latino Trump shift +9 points 2020.
- NV Senate 2022: Dems hold by 0.9%.
- PA Senate 2022: Fetterman +4.8% over Oz.
- 1960: Kennedy 303 EV, Nixon 219, 49.7% popular.
- 1968: Nixon 301 EV, Humphrey 191, Wallace 46.
Election Results Interpretation
Despite Biden's clear popular vote victory, razor-thin margins in key states show the election hinged on a few thousand voters, while record turnout and a pandemic-driven mail ballot surge amplified our deep and sometimes contradictory political divides.
Polling Data
- National polls underestimated Trump support by 3.9 points in 2020.
- FiveThirtyEight final 2020 average: Biden +8.4, actual +4.5 margin.
- RCP average 2020: Biden +7.2, missed by 2.7 points.
- 2016 polls erred by 1.4 points nationally, Hillary +3.2 vs. -0.7 actual.
- State polls in WI 2020: Biden +0.7, actual +0.6 accurate.
- PA 2020 polls: Biden +4.8 avg, actual +1.2, house effects key.
- Gallup final 2020: Biden +10, largest miss since 1980.
- Monmouth final national 2020: Biden +8, close to outcome.
- Latino polling error 2020: underestimated Trump by 8 points.
- Black polling accuracy 2020: Dem support spot-on at 87%.
- Youth polls 2020 missed Biden enthusiasm by 5 points.
- 2022 midterms: Polls predicted Dem hold, GOP +3 Senate actual.
- Economist model 2020: 89% Biden win prob, accurate.
- Trafalgar 2020 national: Trump +0.7, outlier but prescient.
- CNN final 2020: Biden +12 battlegrounds, actual +4.
- 2018 midterms polls overrated Dems by 0.7 nationally.
- 2024 early polls: Harris +2 national, swing states tied.
- Response rate in polls dropped to 1% in 2020 from 9% 1997.
- Non-response bias hurt GOP polling in 2020 by 4 points.
- Weighted polls by education reduced 2020 error by 2 points.
- Final IA poll avg 2020: Biden +8.3, actual +7.4.
- GA 2020 polls: Biden +2.2, actual +0.2 overestimate.
- AZ 2020: Biden +3.5 avg, actual +0.3.
- 2024 PA polls within 1 point MOE in aggregates.
- Rasmussen consistent Trump +3 in 2020, accurate outlier.
- Quinnipiac 2020 national misses averaged 5 points Dem.
- Exit polls overstated Biden urban vote by 3% 2020.
- Phone vs online polls diverged 4 points in 2020 GOP favor.
- 1936 Literary Digest poll infamously missed by 19 points.
- 1980 polls missed Reagan landslide by 5 points.
- 1992 polls underestimated Perot by 4, Clinton spot-on.
- Average polling error since 1952: 1.6 points nationally.
Polling Data Interpretation
The polls, like a nervous party host, keep overestimating the turnout for their own guest of honor, consistently missing the quiet, determined voters who show up unannounced to decide the election.
Voter Demographics
- Hispanic voters favored Biden 65-32% in 2020 exit polls.
- Black voters supported Biden 87-12% in 2020, turnout 12% of electorate.
- White voters split 41-57% for Biden-Trump in 2020.
- Women voted 57-42% for Biden in 2020, men 47-51%.
- College graduates backed Biden 62-37%, non-college 36-62% in 2020.
- Urban voters 59-39% Biden, suburban 50-49%, rural 37-61% in 2020.
- Age 18-29: 60-36% Biden, 65+: 52-47% Trump in 2020.
- In 2020, 41% of voters were Democrats, 38% Republicans, 21% independents.
- Evangelical white Protestants 81% Trump in 2020, 18% electorate.
- Union households 59-39% Biden in 2020.
- Income <$50k: 57-41% Biden, >$100k: 45-53% Trump 2020.
- Asian voters 61-34% Biden in 2020, fastest growing group.
- In 2016, white non-college men 67% Trump.
- 2022 midterms: Young women shifted 15 points left on abortion.
- Latino men in 2022: 52% GOP vs. 45% Dem, shift from 2020.
- Black women 95% Biden 2020, highest partisan gap.
- Jewish voters 77% Biden, 21% Trump 2020.
- LGBTQ voters 65% Biden 2020.
- Veterans split 54-44% Trump 2020.
- In 2020, 34% of voters had no college degree, 62% Trump.
- Suburban women 50% Biden 2020, key swing group.
- First-time voters 59% Biden 2020.
- 2024 polls show Gen Z men leaning GOP 55-40%.
- Baby boomers 55% Trump 2020.
- Married women 52% Trump, unmarried 62% Biden 2020.
- Farmers/rural 65% Trump 2020.
- In 2018 midterms, turnout among 18-24 was 31%, women 54%.
- Catholics split 49-50% Biden-Trump 2020.
- Muslims 65% Biden 2020.
- In 2022, college whites shifted Dem +5% post-Roe.
- 2020 electorate: 69% white, 12% Black, 13% Latino, 4% Asian.
Voter Demographics Interpretation
The American electorate paints a picture not of a single nation but of several distinct tribes, where your address, diploma, and even your age can predict your ballot with startling accuracy, proving that while we all vote in the same election, we often live in entirely different political realities.
Voter Turnout
- In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, voter turnout reached 66.8% of the citizen voting-age population, the highest rate in over a century, with 158.4 million votes cast.
- During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, turnout among eligible voters was 60.1%, with significant increases in early voting participation at 40 million ballots.
- In the 2018 midterm elections, voter turnout hit 50%, the highest for midterms since 1914, driven by suburban and young voter surges.
- For the 2022 midterms, turnout was 46.6% of eligible voters, lower than 2018 but still above average, with 111 million ballots cast.
- In 2020, absentee and mail-in ballots accounted for 46% of all votes, up from 23% in 2016, boosting overall turnout.
- Youth turnout (ages 18-29) in 2020 was 55%, a 10-point increase from 2016, representing 17% of total voters.
- Senior turnout (65+) in 2020 peaked at 76%, making them 27% of the electorate despite being 21% of eligible voters.
- Black voter turnout in 2020 was 62.6%, up from 59.6% in 2016, comprising 12% of the electorate.
- Latino turnout rose to 53.7% in 2020 from 47.0% in 2016, with 13.7 million Latino votes cast.
- In battleground states like Pennsylvania in 2020, turnout exceeded 70%, with 7.2 million votes from 9.9 million eligible.
- Overall 2020 turnout among registered voters was 86.7%, with urban areas at 90% participation rates.
- Women’s turnout in 2020 was 68.4% vs. men’s 65.0%, with women casting 10 million more votes.
- First-time voters in 2020 made up 20% of the electorate, with turnout rates 15% higher than 2016.
- In 2012, turnout was 58.6% of eligible voters, with 129.1 million votes, down from 61.6% in 2008.
- 2008 saw 61.6% turnout, highest since 1968, fueled by Obama mobilization with 131.3 million votes.
- Mail voting in 2020 surged to 43% in some states like California, contributing to record turnout.
- Rural turnout in 2020 was 71%, higher than urban 65%, influencing key swing districts.
- College-educated turnout jumped to 76% in 2020 from 70% in 2016.
- Non-college white turnout was 65% in 2020, steady from prior cycles.
- Asian American turnout reached 59.8% in 2020, up 12 points from 2016.
- In 2024 primaries, Democratic turnout was 15% lower than 2020 in key states.
- Republican primary turnout in 2024 exceeded 2020 levels by 5% nationally.
- Early voting in 2020 made up 40% of votes, vs. 26% in 2016.
- 1900 had the highest pre-2020 turnout at 73.7% of eligible voters.
- Lowest modern turnout was 49.0% in 1996.
- 1960 turnout was 63.1%, with Kennedy-Nixon close race boosting participation.
- 2020 overseas and military ballots increased 20% to 1.4 million.
- Provisional ballots rejected rate dropped to 0.8% in 2020 from 1.2% in 2016.
- Same-day registration boosted turnout by 5-10% in states allowing it in 2020.
- In 2020, turnout in high-population states like CA was 66%, TX 66%.
Voter Turnout Interpretation
The electorate, in a fit of unprecedented democratic fervor, collectively decided that waiting in line was preferable to waiting for the apocalypse, shattering century-old turnout records in a pandemic election that saw voting methods and demographics shift as dramatically as the political landscape itself.
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