A seismic shift is reshaping America's population map, as millions pack their bags and head to the Sun Belt, leaving coastal powerhouses behind for warmer weather, lower costs, and new opportunities.
Key Takeaways
- Between 2010 and 2021, Texas gained a net of 1,062,000 domestic migrants from other states
- From July 2021 to July 2022, Florida experienced a net domestic migration gain of 234,901 residents
- California's net domestic out-migration reached 342,156 people between 2021 and 2022
- In 2021, 28.5 million Americans moved within the same county
- About 9.8 million people moved between different counties in the same state in 2021
- In 2022, intrastate migration accounted for 70% of all domestic moves in the US
- In 2021, median age of intrastate migrants was 32 years
- 38% of domestic migrants in 2021 were aged 25-44
- Women comprised 52% of all domestic movers in 2021
- In 2021, domestic migration reduced poverty rate by 0.5% in gaining states
- Net migration added $1.2 trillion to Southern states' GDP 2010-2020
- Out-migration from Northeast cost $800 billion in lost wages 2015-2022
- From 2010-2020, net migration reversed from +200k to -100k in Midwest
- Interstate migration peaked at 4.5 million in 2005, fell to 2.8M in 2021
- Post-COVID, domestic migration surged 20% in 2021 over 2020
Texas and Florida gained many residents while California and New York lost many.
Demographic Characteristics of Migrants
- In 2021, median age of intrastate migrants was 32 years
- 38% of domestic migrants in 2021 were aged 25-44
- Women comprised 52% of all domestic movers in 2021
- 28% of movers were Hispanic in 2021 domestic migration
- Non-Hispanic Whites made up 62% of domestic migrants in 2021
- Blacks represented 13% of interstate migrants in 2021
- Asians accounted for 6% of domestic movers in 2021
- 45% of domestic migrants aged 25-34 were college-educated in 2021
- Median household income of movers was $65,000 in 2021
- 55% of domestic migrants rented their previous home in 2021
- Families with children under 18 were 32% of movers in 2021
- Single-person households drove 41% of domestic migrations in 2021
- Veterans comprised 7% of domestic migrants in 2021
- In 2021, 22% of movers cited job changes as reason
- 18% of domestic migrants were recent college graduates in 2021
- Foreign-born individuals had 10.2% mobility rate in domestic migration 2021
- Native-born mobility rate was 11.8% for domestic moves in 2021
- In 2021, 35% of Black migrants moved South domestically
- 48% of young migrants (18-24) moved for college in 2021
- High-income households (>$100k) were 28% of movers in 2021
- Low-income (<$25k) comprised 22% of domestic migrants 2021
Demographic Characteristics of Migrants Interpretation
The great American shuffle reveals a story of young, restless renters—primarily women and diverse twenty- and thirty-somethings chasing education, jobs, and new starts—while painting a portrait of mobility that remains starkly unequal by race, income, and the choice between packing a family or going it alone.
Economic Impacts of Migration
- In 2021, domestic migration reduced poverty rate by 0.5% in gaining states
- Net migration added $1.2 trillion to Southern states' GDP 2010-2020
- Out-migration from Northeast cost $800 billion in lost wages 2015-2022
- Migrants to Texas contributed 15% to state job growth in 2022
- Florida's housing prices rose 20% due to net in-migration 2021-2022
- California's out-migrants took $100 billion in income away in 2022
- Domestic migration boosted labor force by 2 million in Sun Belt 2020-2022
- Net migrants to low-tax states saved $50 billion in taxes 2021
- In-migration increased school enrollment by 5% in Florida 2022
- Out-migration reduced welfare costs by $10 billion in donor states 2021
- Migrants filled 25% of tech jobs in Austin via domestic moves 2022
- Domestic in-migration raised median wages 3% in Boise, ID 2021-2022
- Net migration losses correlated with 1.2% GDP drop in NY 2022
- Southern states gained $200 billion in federal tax refunds via migrants 2021
- Migration shifted $300 billion in AGI to Sun Belt 2019-2022
- In-migrants started 12% more businesses in gaining states 2021
- Out-migration increased unemployment 0.8% in California 2022
- Domestic migration added 1.5 million to workforce in Texas 2020-2022
- Rent increases of 15% linked to in-migration in Phoenix 2022
- Net domestic migration grew US GDP by 0.4% in 2022
Economic Impacts of Migration Interpretation
Americans are voting with their U-Hauls, shifting fortunes state by state in a monumental reshuffling of people, money, and power that is simultaneously revitalizing sunnier economies and leaving colder regions to reckon with the bill.
Interstate Migration Flows
- Between 2010 and 2021, Texas gained a net of 1,062,000 domestic migrants from other states
- From July 2021 to July 2022, Florida experienced a net domestic migration gain of 234,901 residents
- California's net domestic out-migration reached 342,156 people between 2021 and 2022
- New York lost 236,945 domestic migrants to other states in 2022
- Between 2018 and 2022, North Carolina had a net inflow of 418,000 domestic migrants
- Illinois saw a net domestic migration loss of 118,000 from 2020 to 2022
- From 2016 to 2021, Arizona gained 305,000 net domestic migrants
- Georgia's net domestic migration gain was 152,000 between 2021 and 2022
- From July 2020 to 2021, Tennessee added 79,000 net domestic migrants
- Nevada's net domestic inflow was 48,000 in 2022
- South Carolina gained 101,000 net domestic migrants from 2021-2022
- Between 2019 and 2022, Idaho saw a net gain of 92,000 domestic migrants
- Utah experienced a net domestic migration gain of 57,000 in 2022
- Washington's net domestic out-migration was 22,000 from 2021-2022
- Colorado gained 41,000 net domestic migrants in 2022
- Massachusetts lost 57,000 domestic migrants net in 2022
- New Jersey had a net domestic migration loss of 67,000 in 2022
- Maryland's net loss was 19,000 domestic migrants in 2022
- Oregon lost 17,000 net domestic migrants from 2021-2022
- Connecticut's net domestic out-migration was 22,000 in 2022
- Hawaii saw a net loss of 12,000 domestic migrants in 2022
- New Mexico gained 11,000 net domestic migrants in 2022
- Montana added 9,000 net domestic migrants from 2021-2022
- Wyoming's net gain was 3,000 domestic migrants in 2022
- South Dakota gained 12,000 net domestic migrants in 2022
- North Dakota lost 2,000 net domestic migrants in 2022
- Alaska had a net loss of 4,000 domestic migrants in 2022
- Oklahoma gained 21,000 net domestic migrants in 2022
- Arkansas added 14,000 net domestic migrants from 2021-2022
- Kentucky's net gain was 10,000 domestic migrants in 2022
Interstate Migration Flows Interpretation
The Sunbelt’s sunny appeal and lower costs are drawing a relentless, spreadsheet-driven evacuation from the traditional coastal powerhouses, as America’s workforce votes with its U-Haul.
Intrastate Migration Patterns
- In 2021, 28.5 million Americans moved within the same county
- About 9.8 million people moved between different counties in the same state in 2021
- In 2022, intrastate migration accounted for 70% of all domestic moves in the US
- California had 1.2 million intrastate migrants in 2021, mostly within metro areas
- Texas saw 850,000 intrastate moves in 2021, with 60% same-county
- New York State had 450,000 intrastate migrants in 2021
- Florida's intrastate migration totaled 620,000 in 2021
- Illinois recorded 380,000 intrastate moves in 2021
- Pennsylvania had 410,000 intrastate migrants in 2021
- Ohio saw 370,000 intrastate migrations in 2021
- Michigan's intrastate moves numbered 320,000 in 2021
- Georgia had 420,000 intrastate migrants in 2021
- North Carolina recorded 390,000 intrastate moves in 2021
- In urban areas, 75% of intrastate moves were within the same metro in 2021
- Rural intrastate migration rate was 11.3% in 2021
- In the South, intrastate moves made up 72% of domestic migration in 2021
- Midwest intrastate migration was 68% of total moves in 2021
- West region saw 65% intrastate moves among domestic migrants in 2021
- Northeast had 74% intrastate migration rate in 2021
- Between 2017-2021, 52% of intrastate movers stayed in principal city
- 28% of intrastate migrants moved to suburbs in 2021
- In 2021, young adults aged 25-34 drove 40% of intrastate moves
- Rental households accounted for 55% of intrastate migrations in 2021
- In 2021, 15.3% of the US population aged 1+ moved intrastate
- Blacks had an intrastate mobility rate of 12.1% in 2021
- Hispanics showed 14.5% intrastate migration rate in 2021
Intrastate Migration Patterns Interpretation
Americans are a restless people, but the great migration of 2021 reveals a surprisingly homely truth: most of us are just shuffling the deck chairs within our own state, with young renters leading the charge to a slightly better deck, but rarely a different ship.
Trends Over Time
- From 2010-2020, net migration reversed from +200k to -100k in Midwest
- Interstate migration peaked at 4.5 million in 2005, fell to 2.8M in 2021
- Post-COVID, domestic migration surged 20% in 2021 over 2020
- Net migration to suburbs rose 50% from 2019-2022
- Sun Belt net gains tripled from 1M in 2010 to 3M in 2022
- Pandemic accelerated retirement migration by 30% 2020-2022
- Remote work drove 15% increase in non-metro migration 2021-2022
- From 2000-2020, Rust Belt lost 5 million net domestically
- Millennial migration shifted Southward 25% more since 2010
- Overall mobility rate dropped from 12% in 2010 to 8.4% in 2022
- Black return migration to South doubled from 1990-2020
- Interstate moves for jobs fell 40% post-2008 recession
- Housing affordability drove 35% migration shift 2015-2022
- Net migration to high-growth metros up 18% 2018-2022
- Climate migration increased coastal outflows 12% 2010-2022
- Gen Z migration rates rose 22% post-2020
- Pandemic reversed urban in-migration trend since 2010
- Tax migration outflows from CA/NY up 50% 2019-2022
- Rural rebound migration grew 28% 2020-2022
Trends Over Time Interpretation
America, sensing a fever, appears to be self-medicating with a massive dose of sun, space, and quiet, leaving its old industrial veins and crowded coasts as it chases affordability and a back porch with a disturbingly pragmatic desperation.
Sources & References
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