While headline inflation cooled to 2.9% in July, the real story of your rising cost of living is hiding in a stubborn 5% jump in housing and a sharp 8.5% surge in car insurance.
Key Takeaways
- The CPI-U for All Urban Consumers (1982-84=100) in the United States was 314.540 in July 2024, up 2.9 percent from July 2023.
- The CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W, 1982-84=100) stood at 308.635 in July 2024, reflecting a 2.9 percent annual increase.
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to 324.808 in July 2024, a 3.2 percent increase over the past 12 months.
- China's CPI year-over-year change was 0.3 percent in July 2024.
- Euro Area CPI rose 2.4 percent year-over-year in July 2024.
- Japan's CPI increased 2.8 percent in July 2024 from a year earlier.
- Food CPI in the US rose 2.2 percent annually to July 2024.
- US Housing CPI (shelter) increased 5.0 percent over 12 months to July 2024.
- Energy CPI in the US declined 2.0 percent annually to July 2024.
- US CPI inflation rate peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022.
- CPI inflation fell to 3.0 percent in June 2024 from 3.3 percent prior.
- Core CPI inflation was 3.2 percent in July 2024.
- The US CPI basket weights housing at 33.4 percent as of 2024.
- Food and beverages comprise 13.4 percent of US CPI-U basket.
- Apparel and services weight is 2.6 percent in CPI-U.
US inflation cooled to around three percent with shelter costs still rising sharply.
CPI Components
- Food CPI in the US rose 2.2 percent annually to July 2024.
- US Housing CPI (shelter) increased 5.0 percent over 12 months to July 2024.
- Energy CPI in the US declined 2.0 percent annually to July 2024.
- US Gasoline index fell 3.2 percent from July 2023 to 2024.
- Electricity CPI rose 2.7 percent annually in the US to July 2024.
- Natural gas CPI decreased 5.8 percent over the year to July 2024.
- New vehicles CPI up 1.0 percent in US annually to July 2024.
- Used cars and trucks CPI down 5.0 percent annually.
- Medical care services CPI increased 3.4 percent to July 2024.
- Physicians' services CPI up 3.9 percent annually.
- Hospital services CPI rose 4.6 percent over 12 months.
- Apparel CPI in US down 0.4 percent annually to July 2024.
- Men's and boys' apparel down 1.1 percent annually.
- Women's and girls' apparel decreased 1.2 percent.
- Footwear CPI up 1.5 percent over the year to July 2024.
- Household furnishings CPI down 0.7 percent annually.
- Laundry machinery down 1.8 percent in US CPI.
- Furniture CPI decreased 3.8 percent annually to July 2024.
- Transportation services CPI up 8.5 percent over 12 months.
- Motor vehicle insurance rose 14.1 percent annually.
- Airline fares declined 3.2 percent to July 2024.
CPI Components Interpretation
Americans are getting squeezed at home and on the road, finding fleeting relief only at the gas pump, the used car lot, and in the laundry room.
CPI Methodology
- The US CPI basket weights housing at 33.4 percent as of 2024.
- Food and beverages comprise 13.4 percent of US CPI-U basket.
- Apparel and services weight is 2.6 percent in CPI-U.
- Transportation accounts for 16.8 percent of the CPI basket.
- Medical care weights 8.5 percent in US CPI.
- Recreation is 5.6 percent of CPI-U expenditure weights.
- Education and communication at 6.2 percent weight.
- Other goods and services 3.2 percent in CPI basket.
- CPI-U covers 93 percent of US population, CPI-W 29 percent.
- CPI uses Laspeyres index formula with fixed basket.
- Geometric mean applied to 61 percent of lower-level CPI items.
- BLS updates CPI weights every two years from CES data.
- Chained CPI (C-CPI-U) uses Törnqvist formula for substitution.
- CPI outlet substitution adjustment implemented since 1999.
- Quality adjustment for hedonic models in electronics since 1999.
- CPI reference base changed to 1982-84=100 in 1988.
- Imputation used for 26 percent of CPI item observations.
- Approximately 80,000 prices collected monthly for CPI.
- CPI surveys 23,000 retail and service establishments.
CPI Methodology Interpretation
America's cost of living is officially monitored by a sprawling, often lagging, mathematical detective that is morbidly obsessed with your housing costs (a third of its brain), reasonably concerned about your transportation and food, and barely gives a thought to your new clothes or your Netflix subscription, all while constantly tweaking its methods to chase a moving target it can never quite catch.
Inflation Trends
- US CPI inflation rate peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022.
- CPI inflation fell to 3.0 percent in June 2024 from 3.3 percent prior.
- Core CPI inflation was 3.2 percent in July 2024.
- 12-month shelter inflation averaged 5.2 percent in mid-2024.
- Food-at-home CPI inflation slowed to 1.2 percent annually in July 2024.
- Food-away-from-home inflation at 4.7 percent to July 2024.
- Energy inflation turned negative at -2.0 percent annually.
- Gasoline prices deflation of 3.2 percent in past year.
- Core goods CPI down 0.6 percent over 12 months to July 2024.
- Services inflation remained sticky at 5.0 percent annually.
- US CPI 3-month annualized rate was 1.0 percent in July 2024.
- 6-month annualized CPI inflation at 2.6 percent ending July 2024.
- Eurozone CPI inflation cooled to 2.4 percent in July 2024.
- UK CPI hit Bank of England target of 2.0 percent in May 2024.
- Japan's core CPI inflation at 2.6 percent excluding fresh food.
- China's CPI inflation remained subdued at 0.3 percent YoY.
- India's retail inflation eased to 3.6 percent in July 2024.
- Turkey's annual CPI inflation decelerated to 61.8 percent.
- Brazil CPI inflation at 4.2 percent amid policy tightening.
Inflation Trends Interpretation
While the overall inflation fever has broken—with the headline U.S. rate cooling dramatically from its scorching 9.1% peak—the patient is not fully recovered, as proven by the stubborn 5.2% shelter cost and the fact that your restaurant bill is still inflating four times faster than your grocery receipt.
International CPI Data
- China's CPI year-over-year change was 0.3 percent in July 2024.
- Euro Area CPI rose 2.4 percent year-over-year in July 2024.
- Japan's CPI increased 2.8 percent in July 2024 from a year earlier.
- United Kingdom CPI inflation was 2.2 percent in July 2024.
- India's CPI rose 3.6 percent year-on-year in July 2024.
- Brazil's CPI inflation rate was 4.2 percent in July 2024.
- Germany's CPI increased 2.3 percent annually in July 2024.
- France CPI rose 1.1 percent year-over-year in July 2024.
- Canada's CPI inflation was 2.7 percent in July 2024.
- Australia's CPI increased 3.6 percent over the 12 months to June 2024.
- Mexico's CPI rose 4.9 percent in July 2024 annually.
- South Korea CPI inflation was 2.4 percent in July 2024.
- Russia's CPI increased 9.3 percent year-on-year in July 2024.
- Turkey's CPI surged 61.8 percent annually in July 2024.
- Sweden CPI rose 0.7 percent in July 2024 from a year ago.
- Italy's CPI inflation was 1.3 percent in July 2024.
- Spain CPI increased 2.8 percent year-over-year in July 2024.
- Argentina's CPI skyrocketed 68.3 percent monthly in July 2024.
- South Africa's CPI was 4.6 percent in July 2024.
International CPI Data Interpretation
While central bankers elsewhere fret over decimal points, Turkey and Argentina are in a league of their own, redefining ‘inflation’ as a high-stakes spectator sport where the prices are the sprinters.
US CPI Data
- The CPI-U for All Urban Consumers (1982-84=100) in the United States was 314.540 in July 2024, up 2.9 percent from July 2023.
- The CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W, 1982-84=100) stood at 308.635 in July 2024, reflecting a 2.9 percent annual increase.
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to 324.808 in July 2024, a 3.2 percent increase over the past 12 months.
- The shelter index increased 5.0 percent over the last 12 months to July 2024.
- New vehicle CPI rose 1.0 percent annually to July 2024.
- Gasoline CPI declined 3.2 percent from July 2023 to July 2024.
- Food CPI increased 2.2 percent over the year ended July 2024.
- Energy CPI fell 2.0 percent annually to July 2024.
- Medical care CPI rose 3.0 percent in the 12 months to July 2024.
- Apparel CPI decreased 0.4 percent from July 2023 to July 2024.
- The national CPI-U for June 2024 was 314.175, up 3.0 percent from June 2023.
- CPI-U for New York-Newark-Jersey City was 336.849 in July 2024.
- Los Angeles CPI-U reached 310.456 in July 2024.
- Chicago CPI-U was 299.214 in July 2024.
- Atlanta CPI-U stood at 305.672 in July 2024.
- US CPI peaked at 313.225 in October 2023 before moderating.
- Annual average CPI-U for 2023 was 304.702.
- CPI for All Items Less Food and Energy averaged 311.5 in 2023 annually.
- Rent of primary residence index was 397.788 in July 2024.
- Owners' equivalent rent rose to 404.553 in July 2024.
- CPI for services increased 5.0 percent annually to July 2024.
- CPI for commodities declined 0.6 percent over the year to July 2024.
- Education and communication CPI up 2.7 percent annually.
- Recreation CPI increased 1.8 percent to July 2024.
- Household furnishings CPI down 0.7 percent annually.
- Alcoholic beverages CPI up 2.4 percent over 12 months.
- Tobacco CPI rose 6.3 percent annually to July 2024.
- The CPI-U index for January 2024 was 308.417.
- CPI-W for December 2023 was 303.871.
- Core CPI for May 2024 was 323.919.
US CPI Data Interpretation
Your grocery bill isn't getting any lighter because, while the sting of gasoline has subsided, you're essentially paying a 5% 'roof tax' just to exist somewhere, which conveniently cancels out any relief you felt at the pump.
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