Think you've got college football all figured out? This deep dive into the numbers—from the 52.3% success rate of favorites in tight 3-6 point games to how public betting sentiment so often leads you astray—will challenge everything you thought you knew about beating the spread.
Key Takeaways
- In the 2023 college football season, favorites covering the spread occurred in 52.3% of games when the line was between 3-6 points
- Road favorites in Power 5 conferences covered the spread at a 48.1% rate during the 2022 regular season
- Teams with a top-25 rushing offense covered as underdogs 61.2% of the time in 2023
- In 2023, Michigan moneyline favorites won outright 92.3% of their 13 victories
- Underdogs on the moneyline +200 or higher won 18.4% of games in Power 5 matchups 2023
- Home teams won 57.2% of moneyline bets in non-conference games 2022
- Over hit 54.2% in 2023 games with totals set at 55.5 or higher
- Big Ten games went over 52.8% when both teams averaged 30+ PPG 2023
- Wind under 10mph correlated with overs hitting 57.1% in 2023 domes
- In 2023, public bet 58% on Ohio State -6 vs Michigan, but Michigan covered
- Reverse line movement occurred in 23.4% of games where public was 70%+ on one side 2023
- Public hammered favorites 62% in Week 1, favorites went 45-32 ATS
- U.S. sportsbooks handled $2.5 billion in college football bets during 2023 season
- Nevada sportsbooks took in $93.2 million profit from college football in 2023
- College football accounted for 28.4% of total sports betting handle in Q4 2023
The blog post details many statistics revealing subtle trends and edges for betting on college football.
Betting Trends and Public Betting
- In 2023, public bet 58% on Ohio State -6 vs Michigan, but Michigan covered
- Reverse line movement occurred in 23.4% of games where public was 70%+ on one side 2023
- Public hammered favorites 62% in Week 1, favorites went 45-32 ATS
- 71% public on over in Alabama-LSU 2023, game stayed under by 12
- Dogs drew 55% public bets in bowls, covering 52.1% 2023
- Steam moves hit 68.3% ATS following public heavy favorites 2023
- Public 67% Georgia ML vs Florida, Georgia won by 3 after line move
- Fade the public worked 54.7% in Big Ten public 60%+ games 2023
- 73% public on over in CFP semis averaged under by 8 points 2023
- Public bet home teams 59% in non-conf, homes 56.2% ATS 2023
- Sharp money opposed 69% public overs in low total SEC games
- Public 64% on Michigan -1.5 vs OSU, public side lost
- Rivalry games saw public 61% favorites, dogs covered 53.8% 2023
- 70% public on Pac-12 overs before collapse, overs 48% actual
- Public money % peaked 66% Week 13, contrarian dogs 55% ATS
- Bowl public 62% overs, unders cashed 51.9% 2023
- Sharp vs public divergence 24.6% games, sharps 58.2% ATS 2023
- Public 68% Texas vs Bama, underdogs covered adjusted line
- Big 12 public 57% homes, but road teams 52.4% ATS 2023
- 65% public on totals 60+, but unders hit 54.3% high totals 2023
- Fade public in primetime: public 63%, contrarian 56.1% ATS 2023
- Public bet 72% favorites Week 0 intl games, split ATS
- Conference champs public 60% ML chalk, won 67.4% 2023
- Public 59% overs cold weather, unders 57.6% 2023
- Short week public 61% favorites lost 53.2% ATS 2023
- Top-25 public 66%, but #15-25 dogs covered 54.9% 2023
Betting Trends and Public Betting Interpretation
Despite all their loud conviction, the public’s betting herd often sounds like a confident but off-key marching band, reliably pointing toward value on the quieter, contrarian side of the street.
Handle and Revenue
- U.S. sportsbooks handled $2.5 billion in college football bets during 2023 season
- Nevada sportsbooks took in $93.2 million profit from college football in 2023
- College football accounted for 28.4% of total sports betting handle in Q4 2023
- DraftKings reported $450 million handle on college football bowls 2023-24
- FanDuel college football revenue share was 15.2% of total sports revenue 2023
- Total U.S. college football betting handle reached $3.1 billion in 2022 season
- CFP national championship generated $150 million handle across U.S. books 2023
- New Jersey sportsbooks handled $248 million on college football 2023
- Pennsylvania college football handle up 22% to $420 million in 2023
- Michigan legalized betting led to $180 million college football handle 2023
- BetMGM college football profit margin averaged 8.7% in 2023 season
- College football Week 1 handle hit record $350 million nationally 2023
- Illinois sportsbooks $112 million college football handle 2023
- Indiana college football betting revenue $28.5 million in 2023
- Colorado handled $89 million on college football, hold 7.9% 2023
- Iowa sportsbooks college football handle $76 million, profit $6.2M 2023
- Tennessee college football wagers totaled $145 million 2023 season
- West Virginia $42 million college football handle, 9.1% hold 2023
- Louisiana college football betting $98 million handle 2023 launch year
- Ohio $210 million college football handle post-legalization 2023
- Sportsbook hold on college football averaged 7.2% across U.S. 2023
- CFP quarterfinals combined handle $85 million 2023-24
- Kentucky debut year college football $55 million handle 2023
- Massachusetts $72 million college football handle 2023 partial season
- College football parlays accounted for 42% of total handle 2023
- Nevada college football super contest entries up 18% to 12,500 in 2023
- U.S. total sports betting revenue $10.9B 2023, college football 12.4%
Handle and Revenue Interpretation
Even with fans constantly complaining about the officials, America still bet a staggering, debt-ceiling-level amount on college football last year, proving that while we might not trust the refs, we absolutely trust our own bad gambling instincts.
Moneyline Odds
- In 2023, Michigan moneyline favorites won outright 92.3% of their 13 victories
- Underdogs on the moneyline +200 or higher won 18.4% of games in Power 5 matchups 2023
- Home teams won 57.2% of moneyline bets in non-conference games 2022
- Top-10 teams cashed moneyline 88.6% as favorites under -500 in 2023
- SEC moneyline underdogs won 22.1% outright in rivalry weeks 2022-2023
- Bowl game moneyline favorites won 65.4% from 2019-2023
- Teams with 70%+ win rate prior to game won ML 76.8% in 2023
- Road moneyline dogs +150 to +250 won 24.7% in Big Ten 2023
- CFP moneyline favorites since 2014 won 82.1% of games
- ACC teams won ML 59.3% at home vs non-Power 5 foes 2022-2023
- Moneyline payouts averaged +420 for successful underdogs 10+ point spreads 2023
- Favorites -300 or shorter cashed 91.2% in primetime slots 2023
- Post-bye moneyline favorites won 62.4% in conference play 2022
- Teams off upset loss won ML 55.8% next game as slight dogs 2023
- Pac-12 home ML favorites won 68.7% before conference realignment 2023
- Moneyline underdogs with elite QBR won 28.3% outright 2023
- Big 12 ML road favorites won 53.1% despite tough travel 2022-2023
- Neutral site moneyline even-money bets split 51.2% home listed 2023 bowls
- Top-25 ML dogs +400 or more cashed 12.6% since 2015
- Favorites after shutout win took ML 89.4% next game 2023
- Conference openers saw ML favorites win 64.7% 2022-2023
- ML implied probability for -200 favorites was accurate 78.5% in 2023
- Underdogs in holiday bowls won ML 31.8% from 2018-2023
- Teams with 300+ total yards/game won ML 71.2% 2023
- Short week ML favorites (Thu-Sat) won 56.9% in 2023
- New Year Six bowls ML chalk won 77.3% since expansion
- ML favorites in games with injuries to key players dropped to 48.2% win rate 2023
Moneyline Odds Interpretation
College football tells us the best bet is usually on the powerhouses, unless a gritty underdog with a hot quarterback decides to ruin the spreadsheet, because chaos isn't a bug in the system, it's the sport's most reliable feature.
Over/Under Totals
- Over hit 54.2% in 2023 games with totals set at 55.5 or higher
- Big Ten games went over 52.8% when both teams averaged 30+ PPG 2023
- Wind under 10mph correlated with overs hitting 57.1% in 2023 domes
- Teams with top-20 pace of play pushed totals over 59.3% 2022-2023
- SEC rivalry games stayed under 48.6% with totals 52+
- Bowl unders hit 53.4% in games with spreads under 7 points 2019-2023
- First-half totals over 56.7% when full game total 60+ in 2023
- Post-bye unders 51.9% in defensive matchups (top-40 defenses) 2023
- ACC games with dual-threat QBs went over 58.2% 2023
- Totals under 50 hit 55.4% in night games under 40 degrees 2022-2023
- CFP games stayed under 62.1% average total since 2015
- Teams allowing under 20 PPG/game unders 57.8% 2023
- Pac-12 overs 60.3% in high-elevation stadiums 2023
- Halftime total leaders went over full total 53.2% 2023
- Big 12 shootouts (70+ combined pts last game) over 61.4% next 2023
- Unders hit 54.7% in rematch games with prior low score 2022-2023
- Totals movement up 1+ point presaged overs 56.1% 2023
- Mountain West unders 52.9% after offensive explosion 2023
- Top-25 vs top-25 overs 58.6% with totals 55-65 2023
- Low total games (45 or less) unders 63.2% cold weather 2023
- Conference championship totals over 51.3% since 2015
- Teams with new OC overs 55.7% first 4 games 2023
- Neutral site bowls overs 54.8% with spread 10+ 2023
- Short week totals under 50.1% hit rate 2023 Thu games
- Unders after shutout 59.4% for favorites 2023
- Public bet 65%+ on over led to unders 57.2% in 2023
Over/Under Totals Interpretation
It appears the data suggests that while the over is tantalized by pace, altitude, and offensive fireworks, it is ultimately strangled by the cold, cautious hands of rivalry, defense, and the public’s excessive optimism.
Point Spreads
- In the 2023 college football season, favorites covering the spread occurred in 52.3% of games when the line was between 3-6 points
- Road favorites in Power 5 conferences covered the spread at a 48.1% rate during the 2022 regular season
- Teams with a top-25 rushing offense covered as underdogs 61.2% of the time in 2023
- In bowl games from 2018-2023, the average spread was 6.8 points with favorites covering 53.4%
- SEC teams as double-digit favorites (10+ points) covered 57.9% in 2023
- Home underdogs covering by 3 points or less succeeded in 55.6% of Big 12 games in 2022
- First-half spreads in primetime games were covered by favorites 49.8% in 2023
- Teams off a bye week covered as favorites 58.3% when lines were under 7 points in 2022-2023
- ACC teams with top-20 defenses covered 60.1% as home favorites in 2023
- Spread movement of 1+ point toward underdogs correlated with 54.2% covers from 2020-2023
- Pac-12 favorites in rivalry games covered 51.7% over the last 5 seasons
- Teams ranked 15-25 covered as underdogs 62.4% in non-conference games 2023
- Average spread for top-10 vs bottom-50 teams was 18.2 points with 56.8% favorite covers in 2023
- Underdogs with backup QBs covered 46.3% when lines were 7+ points 2022
- Big Ten home teams covered 59.2% in night games under 50-degree temps 2023
- Post-injury spreads shifted 4.1 points on average, with adjusted favorites covering 53.7% 2021-2023
- Conference championship games saw favorites cover 61.5% since 2015
- Teams with 90+ team rushing yards/game covered 57.1% as dogs 2023
- Spreads opened tighter by 1.2 points in rematch games, covers 55.9% for chalk
- Mountain West favorites covered 54.6% on short weeks (Thu games) 2022-2023
- Top-10 teams covered 63.2% as -14 or more dogs since 2010
- Halftime leaders covering full game spread 52.8% in 2023 regular season
- Favorites after scoring 40+ points last game covered 58.4% next outing 2023
- Underdogs +3 to +6 covered 56.7% vs top-25 teams 2022-2023
- Average spread error for Vegas lines was 2.9 points in CFP games 2015-2023
- Home field advantage averaged 2.8 points in neutral site bowls 2023
- Teams with new coaches covered 47.2% as favorites first 3 games 2023
- Spreads in games with totals under 50 saw 54.1% underdog covers 2023
- Big 12 underdogs covered 60.3% after a loss by 20+ in 2022
- Favorites -7 to -10 covered 53.9% in dome stadiums since 2018
Point Spreads Interpretation
Betting on college football is like trying to predict a tornado with a barometer; even with all these compelling angles, the data shows the house still has a slim but infuriatingly persistent edge.
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