While the planet's fever, measured as a 1.09°C rise in global temperature, might sound modest, its accelerating symptoms—from vanishing ice and rising seas to intensifying storms—tell a more alarming story of climate change unfolding in real-time.
Key Takeaways
- Global surface temperature has risen by about 1.09°C (range: 0.95 to 1.20°C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020
- The decade 2011-2020 was likely the hottest decade on record, with global mean near-surface temperature 0.99°C [0.84-1.10°C] higher than 1850-1900
- Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C (likely between 0.8°C and 1.3°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2°C (0.1-0.3°C) per decade
- Global mean sea level rose by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m from 1901 to 2018
- Global mean sea level has risen by 21–24 cm since 1880, accelerating to 3.7 mm per year from 2006–2018
- Sea level rise rate is 3.7 mm/year (2006-2015), compared to 1.4 mm/year (20th century)
- Greenland Ice Sheet lost 4890 Gt of ice since 1992, contributing 13.5 mm to sea level rise
- Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance was -2670 ± 460 Gt from 1992-2020
- Arctic sea ice extent minimum in September averaged 4.11 million km² in 2010-2019, 40% less than 1979-1988
- Frequency of heatwaves has increased fivefold since the 1950s
- Proportion of intense tropical cyclones increased by 7% per decade since 1980
- Heavy precipitation events increased in frequency and intensity over most land areas since 1950
- Atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 419.3 ppm in May 2023
- Human activities emitted 59 GtCO2e in 2019
- CO2 levels rose from 278 ppm pre-industrial to 410 ppm in 2019
Human activity has caused record-breaking global warming with severe consequences.
Atmospheric Temperature Changes
- Global surface temperature has risen by about 1.09°C (range: 0.95 to 1.20°C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020
- The decade 2011-2020 was likely the hottest decade on record, with global mean near-surface temperature 0.99°C [0.84-1.10°C] higher than 1850-1900
- Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C (likely between 0.8°C and 1.3°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2°C (0.1-0.3°C) per decade
- Earth's average surface temperature in 2023 was the warmest on record, at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average
- Since 1880, average global temperatures have increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius
- The rate of global temperature rise has nearly doubled since 1981, reaching 0.36°F (0.20°C) per decade since 1982
- 2023 saw global average temperature 2.12°F (1.18°C) above the 20th-century average
- Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover has decreased at a rate of 1.0–2.6% per decade from 1967-2022
- Global land and ocean surface temperature for 2023 was 0.27°F (0.15°C) above 2022 and 2.43°F (1.35°C) above the 20th-century average
- Warming over land is 1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] times greater than over the ocean since 1850-1900
- Arctic amplification has increased Arctic temperatures 3.8 times faster than global average since 1979
- Global tropospheric temperature has warmed by 0.80°C from 1979 to 2021 at a rate of 0.19°C per decade
- Ocean heat content in the upper 2000m increased by 436 ± 9 ZJ from 1971-2018
- Global temperature has risen by about 1.09°C (range: 0.95 to 1.20°C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020
- The warming rate since 1981 is 0.20°C per decade (likely range 0.16 to 0.24°C)
- 2023 was 0.15 ± 0.10°C warmer than any other year since 1850
- Tropospheric temperatures warmed 0.87°C (1979-2022) per RSS data
- UAH satellite data shows +0.14°C/decade tropospheric warming (1979-2023)
- Ocean-only temperature rise 0.73°C (1901-2020)
- Land temperature anomaly +1.72°C above 1850-1900 (2011-2020)
- Coldest year since 1850 was 1904, warmest 2023 with +1.48°C anomaly
- Global mean surface air temperature for Dec 2023-Jan 2024 was +1.40°C above 1991-2020
- Sea surface temperatures reached record 20.97°C global average in 2023
Atmospheric Temperature Changes Interpretation
We've taken Earth's fever from a gentle whisper to a shouting siren, with every vital sign—from the scorching land to the feverish seas—showing our patient is running hot and the rate is alarmingly accelerating.
Cryosphere
- Greenland Ice Sheet lost 4890 Gt of ice since 1992, contributing 13.5 mm to sea level rise
- Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance was -2670 ± 460 Gt from 1992-2020
- Arctic sea ice extent minimum in September averaged 4.11 million km² in 2010-2019, 40% less than 1979-1988
- Glacier mass loss worldwide was 219 ± 32 Gt/yr for 2015-2019
- Spring snow cover in Northern Hemisphere declined by 3.3% per decade (1922-2016)
- Permafrost temperature at 20m depth warmed by 0.29 ± 0.12°C per decade (1980-2016)
- Antarctic sea ice extent peaked at 20.14 million km² in 2014 but declined 12% per decade since 1979
- Glacier retreat: 92% of glaciers monitored worldwide are in retreat
- Arctic sea ice volume declined 78% from 1979-2018
- Snow water equivalent in Northern Hemisphere decreased 9% from 1981-2020
- Thawing permafrost released 1.7 Gt C per year (2000-2009)
- Mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers was 21 ± 1.9 mm/yr sea level equivalent (2015-2019)
- Alpine glaciers lost 9% of area since 2000
- Greenland ice mass loss 1992-2020: 4890 Gt, SLR 13.5 mm
- Antarctic ice mass loss 1992-2020: 2670 Gt, SLR 7.4 mm
- Glacier mass loss 2000-2019: 21,000 Gt globally
- Arctic sea ice minimum extent 2023: 4.23 million km², 1.27 million km² below 1981-2010 average
- Antarctic sea ice extent 2023 minimum: record low 1.91 million km²
- Permafrost carbon stocks: 1300-1600 GtC
- Glacier volume loss 47% since Little Ice Age maximum
- Himalayan glaciers thinning 0.66 m/yr (2000-2016)
- Eurasian permafrost thaw: 38% by 2100 under high emissions
- Sea ice thickness Arctic declined 1.3 m (1975-2012)
Cryosphere Interpretation
The planet's icy vaults are bleeding billions of tons, the white landscapes that once reflected the sun's heat are shrinking into memory, and the very ground that was permanently frozen is now coughing up ancient carbon, all while we calmly measure our own undoing in millimeters and percentages.
Extreme Weather and Events
- Frequency of heatwaves has increased fivefold since the 1950s
- Proportion of intense tropical cyclones increased by 7% per decade since 1980
- Heavy precipitation events increased in frequency and intensity over most land areas since 1950
- Agricultural and ecological droughts have increased since 1950, especially in Mediterranean
- Number of weather-related disasters rose from 7117 (1980-1999) to 15,965 (2000-2019)
- Compound hot and dry extremes increased in 56% of global land area (1950-2019)
- Intensity of heavy-precipitation events increased 7% in the US (1960-2020)
- Category 4-5 hurricanes doubled since 1970
- Wildfires burned 7.0 million acres in 2023 in the US, above average
- Flood events increased 1.5 times in Europe (1980-2021)
- Heatwave duration increased by 46% globally (1979-2020)
- Tornado intensity has increased, with EF4+ tornadoes up 10% since 1950
- Global economic losses from weather disasters reached $155 billion in 2022
- Number of Category 3+ tropical cyclones doubled from 1970-2020
- US billion-dollar disasters: 28 in 2023, total 337 since 1980
- Global drought area affected increased 29% since 2000
- Heat-related mortality increased 50% in Europe 1980-2016
- Hurricane Ian 2022: $112.9 billion damages
- Australian bushfires 2019-2020: 18.6 million hectares burned
- European floods 2021: 220 deaths, €43 billion damage
- Intensity of rainfall events up 12% per °C warming
- Number of record high temperature days tripled since 1950
- Pacific typhoons: super typhoons 10% more frequent
Extreme Weather and Events Interpretation
Nature's invoice is arriving with alarming frequency, and the fine print is now written in fire, flood, and storm.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations
- Atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 419.3 ppm in May 2023
- Human activities emitted 59 GtCO2e in 2019
- CO2 levels rose from 278 ppm pre-industrial to 410 ppm in 2019
- Methane concentration increased to 1866 ppb in 2019, 162% of pre-industrial
- Global fossil CO2 emissions were 36.8 GtCO2 in 2022
- N2O concentration reached 332 ppb in 2019, 123% of pre-industrial
- Cumulative CO2 emissions from 1850-2019: 2390 ± 240 GtCO2
- Energy-related CO2 emissions grew 1.1% in 2023 to 37.4 GtCO2
- Deforestation emitted 1.5 GtCO2 per year (2001-2020)
- Fluorinated gases increased 46% since 1990
- US emitted 4798 MtCO2e in 2021
- China CO2 emissions: 11.9 Gt in 2022
- Radiative forcing from well-mixed GHGs was 3.24 [2.96 to 3.50] W m⁻² in 2019
- Global CO2 emissions 37 Gt in 2023, 1.1% increase
- CH4 emissions 375 Mt/yr (2000-2018)
- Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 2400 Gt since 1750
- EU ETS emissions down 47% since 2005 peak
- Aviation CO2 2.5% of global total, 1 GtCO2 2019
- Cement production 8% global CO2, 2.3 Gt/yr
- Land use change emissions -4.7 GtCO2/yr average 2010-2019
- HFCs phasedown: 98% reduction by 2050 under Kigali
- India emissions 2.8 GtCO2 2022
- Global growth rate CO2 2.6 ppm/yr (2015-2024)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations Interpretation
We're throwing a party for the planet with our industrial exhaust, and the guest of honor, at 419 ppm, is a heat-trapping blanket we can't seem to stop knitting.
Ocean and Sea Level Rise
- Global mean sea level rose by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m from 1901 to 2018
- Global mean sea level has risen by 21–24 cm since 1880, accelerating to 3.7 mm per year from 2006–2018
- Sea level rise rate is 3.7 mm/year (2006-2015), compared to 1.4 mm/year (20th century)
- Global sea level rose at an average rate of 4.62 mm/yr from 2013-2022
- Thermosteric sea level rise contributed 1.6 mm/yr (2006-2018)
- Mass loss from glaciers contributed 48 ± 10 Gt/yr to sea level rise (2012–2016)
- Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss was 169 ± 61 Gt/yr (1992–2020)
- Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss increased from 105 Gt/yr (1992–1996) to 372 Gt/yr (2016–2020)
- Ocean acidification has increased by 26% since the beginning of the industrial revolution
- Global mean sea surface temperature increased by 0.88°C [0.68–1.01°C] from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020
- Argo floats show ocean heat content increase of 0.10 ± 0.07 W m⁻² (2006–2018)
- Coral reefs have lost ~14% of area since 2009 due to bleaching
- pH of ocean surface waters decreased by 0.1 units since pre-industrial times
- Sea level at Miami has risen 3 inches per decade since 2006
- Global sea level rise projected to be 0.28–0.55 m by 2100 under low emissions (SSP1-1.9)
- Ocean oxygen content decreased by 0.5 to 3.3% from 1970-2010
- Global mean sea level change 1900-2020: +0.20 m (range 0.15-0.25 m), accelerating to 4.62 mm/yr (2013-2022)
- Tide gauge data shows 1.5 mm/yr rise 1901-1990, 3.3 mm/yr 1993-2022 satellite altimetry
- Glacial isostatic adjustment contributes -0.3 mm/yr to sea level rise
- West Antarctic ice streams contribute 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise
- Ocean thermal expansion: 50% of sea level rise since 1971
- Gulf of Mexico sea level rise 17 mm/yr (2006-2010)
- Pacific islands sea level rise 10 mm/yr in places like Kiribati
- Arctic ocean salinity decreased 0.05 psu per decade (1970-2017)
- Marine heatwaves increased from 0.8% (1979-1998) to 4.4% (1999-2017) of ocean area
- Upper ocean (700m) heat content +0.4°C since 1969
- Full-depth ocean heat gain 0.83 W/m² (1971-2018)
Ocean and Sea Level Rise Interpretation
Our oceans are swelling with the undeniable receipts of our planetary binge, turning up the heat and acid while quietly plotting the submergence of our coastal delusions at an ever-quickening pace.
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