From disease-driven devastation to a remarkable recovery, China's pork industry is not just back on its feet but setting new production records, fundamentally reshaping global meat markets and domestic dinner tables alike.
Key Takeaways
- In 2022, China's pork production reached 53.91 million metric tons, marking a 2.9% increase from 2021 and recovering fully from the African Swine Fever impact
- China's sow herd expanded to 42.3 million heads by the end of 2022, up 1.9% year-on-year, supporting future production growth
- Pork output in Henan province, the top producer, accounted for 8.5% of national total at 4.58 million tons in 2022
- China's per capita pork production was 38.1 kg in 2022, up from 25 kg in 2019
- Urban household pork consumption averaged 18.5 kg per capita annually in 2022
- Rural per capita pork intake was 25.2 kg in 2022, higher than urban due to tradition
- China imported 1.68 million tons of pork in 2022 to supplement domestic supply amid high demand
- Pork exports from China totaled 140,000 tons in 2022, mainly to Hong Kong and Southeast Asia
- EU pork imports to China reached 450,000 tons in 2022, up 15% YoY
- China's wholesale pork price averaged RMB 24.5/kg in 2022, down 25% from 2021 peak
- Live hog price fluctuated between RMB 14-20/kg in 2022, averaging RMB 16.8/kg
- Pork producer profit margins reached RMB 2.5/kg in Q4 2022, up from losses in 2021
- African Swine Fever outbreaks reduced to 3 cases in 2022 from 10,000 in 2019
- National pig vaccination coverage for classical swine fever reached 99.5% in 2022
- Large-scale farms (over 5,000 heads) adopted full biosecurity, 60% of herds 2022
China's pork industry has fully recovered and is now growing with record domestic production.
Biosecurity and Sustainability
- African Swine Fever outbreaks reduced to 3 cases in 2022 from 10,000 in 2019
- National pig vaccination coverage for classical swine fever reached 99.5% in 2022
- Large-scale farms (over 5,000 heads) adopted full biosecurity, 60% of herds 2022
- Manure utilization rate in pig farms hit 85% for biogas/fertilizer 2022
- ASF vaccination trials covered 20 million doses in 2022 with 90% efficacy
- Antibiotic use in pig production reduced 40% since 2018 to 2022
- Number of certified biosecure farms increased to 15,000 in 2022
- Water usage per kg pork dropped to 4,500 liters in modern farms 2022
- Carbon emissions from pig sector 5% of national ag total, targeted 10% cut by 2025 from 2022
- FMD vaccination rate 98% in swine herds 2022
- Waste-to-energy plants at 2,500 pig farms producing 1.2 billion kWh 2022
- PRRS cases declined 70% to 1,200 outbreaks 2022
- Farm density regulated to <1 sow/km² in high-risk areas 2022
- GHG emissions per kg pork 3.2 kg CO2e in 2022, down from 4.1 in 2018
- Traceability systems implemented in 70% of commercial farms 2022
- Salmonella prevalence in pork <1% at slaughter 2022
- Straw bedding adoption 40% reducing ammonia emissions 30% 2022
- National animal health monitoring stations 500 in 2022
- E. coli resistance in swine antibiotics down 25% 2022
- Closed-loop farms with zero discharge 10% of total 2022
- Wildlife surveillance for ASF negative in 95% samples 2022
- Biosecurity investment RMB 50 billion industry-wide 2022
- Mycoplasma outbreaks reduced to 500 cases 2022
- Land use for pig feed crops 45 million ha, sustainable sourcing 60% 2022
- PPE usage mandatory 100% in farms post-ASF 2022
- AI monitoring for disease early warning in 5,000 farms 2022
- Phosphorus in manure fertilizer replaced 20% chemical 2022
- National cull policy for ASF affected 1 million heads 2022
Biosecurity and Sustainability Interpretation
China's pork industry has decisively gone from apocalyptic barnyard to a meticulously managed, data-driven fortress, slashing disease, trimming waste, and vaccinating its way toward a future where the only thing spreading is efficiency.
Consumption and Demand
- China's per capita pork production was 38.1 kg in 2022, up from 25 kg in 2019
- Urban household pork consumption averaged 18.5 kg per capita annually in 2022
- Rural per capita pork intake was 25.2 kg in 2022, higher than urban due to tradition
- Total pork consumption volume reached 55.2 million tons in 2022, up 3.2% YoY
- Pork accounted for 63% of China's total meat consumption in 2022
- Holiday demand during 2023 Chinese New Year boosted pork sales by 15% QoQ
- Processed pork products consumption grew 4.1% to 12.3 million tons in 2022
- Per capita fresh pork consumption was 32.4 kg in urban areas 2022
- Pork demand elasticity to income is 0.45 in China, per 2022 studies
- Total meat consumption hit 87 million tons in 2022, with pork dominant at 55 million
- Online pork sales via e-commerce platforms surged 28% to 1.2 million tons in 2022
- Rural pork expenditure share of food budget was 22% in 2022
- Pork imports substituted only 2.5% of domestic consumption in 2022
- Youth (18-35) pork consumption declined 5% YoY in 2022 favoring plant-based
- Institutional catering pork use was 8.7 million tons in 2022, up 3%
- Household freezer ownership at 85% drove frozen pork demand up 12% in 2022
- Pork protein intake per capita 12.5 kg in 2022
- Mid-autumn festival pork consumption spiked 18% in September 2022
- Female consumers preferred lean pork, accounting for 55% of low-fat sales 2022
- Total apparent pork consumption grew to 56.1 million tons in 2023 H1
- Pork share in protein consumption 58% in 2022
- Export-oriented processed pork for consumption abroad indirect demand 0.8 million tons 2022
- Urban disposable income growth 5% boosted pork spend by RMB 120/capita 2022
- BBQ and hotpot trends increased pork belly demand 22% in 2022
- Elderly (60+) pork consumption stable at 28 kg/capita 2022
- Pork imports met 4% of demand in Q1 2023 amid seasonal peaks
- Vegan trend reduced pork demand by 1.2% among millennials 2022
- Total pork disappearance estimated 55.5 million tons 2022
- School meal programs used 2.1 million tons pork in 2022
- Pork price drop 20% in 2022 stimulated volume consumption up 6%
Consumption and Demand Interpretation
China's pork industry is a study in hearty contradictions: while the youth flirts with plant-based plates and online sales surge, the rural heartland and holiday feasts remain unshakably loyal to the pig, proving that even as tastes modernize, tradition still owns the lion's—or perhaps the hog's—share of the dinner table.
International Trade
- China imported 1.68 million tons of pork in 2022 to supplement domestic supply amid high demand
- Pork exports from China totaled 140,000 tons in 2022, mainly to Hong Kong and Southeast Asia
- EU pork imports to China reached 450,000 tons in 2022, up 15% YoY
- Brazil supplied 580,000 tons of frozen pork to China in 2022, largest exporter
- US pork exports to China hit 310,000 tons in 2022 despite trade tensions
- China's pork import value was USD 2.8 billion in 2022, down 10% from 2021 peak
- Imports from Russia grew 25% to 120,000 tons in 2022
- Hong Kong imported 95% of its pork from mainland China in 2022, 380,000 tons
- Spain's pork exports to China doubled to 280,000 tons in 2022
- Total pork imports Q1 2023 dropped 40% YoY to 200,000 tons as production rose
- Argentina began pork shipments to China totaling 15,000 tons in 2022
- China's share of global pork imports was 25% in 2022
- Canada exported 180,000 tons pork to China in 2022
- Philippines imported 50,000 tons from China in 2022 amid local shortages
- Pork import tariffs averaged 8% in 2022 for China
- Netherlands supplied 90,000 tons to China 2022
- China's pork trade deficit narrowed to 1.54 million tons in 2022
- Vietnam exported 20,000 tons pork products to China 2022
- Germany pork exports to China 110,000 tons 2022
- Myanmar imports from China 30,000 tons pork 2022
- Pork import growth from ASEAN countries up 18% to 150,000 tons 2022
- Chile approved as supplier, shipped 5,000 tons to China 2022
- China's pork re-exports to Japan 25,000 tons 2022
- Mexico pork exports to China 40,000 tons 2022
- Pork import inspections rejected 0.5% of shipments in 2022
- Thailand exported 15,000 tons processed pork to China 2022
- Global pork trade volume affected by China imports at 1.7 million tons 2022
- Denmark 75,000 tons to China 2022
- Pork trade balance improved with exports up 10% to 155,000 tons 2022
- Belarus began shipments 8,000 tons 2022
- Live pig imports banned since 2018, all frozen/boneless 2022
- Average pork import price USD 2,200/ton CIF China 2022
International Trade Interpretation
Despite hogging the global market to the tune of a quarter of all imports, China's pork ledger tells a story of a nation strategically—and hungrily—balancing a massive domestic appetite against a recovering herd, playing a complex and price-sensitive game of international meat chess.
Market Prices and Economics
- China's wholesale pork price averaged RMB 24.5/kg in 2022, down 25% from 2021 peak
- Live hog price fluctuated between RMB 14-20/kg in 2022, averaging RMB 16.8/kg
- Pork producer profit margins reached RMB 2.5/kg in Q4 2022, up from losses in 2021
- National average retail pork price RMB 28.2/kg end-2022
- Feed cost as 65% of total hog production cost, RMB 9.5/kg in 2022
- Pork CPI index fell 18% YoY in 2022, easing inflation
- Breeding sow price averaged RMB 1,800/head in 2022, down 15%
- Industry revenue estimated USD 250 billion in 2022
- Cost of production RMB 14.1/kg live weight 2022
- Retail price for pork belly RMB 32/kg average 2022
- Hog futures on Dalian Exchange averaged RMB 16,200/ton 2022
- Pig farming gross margin 12% in 2022 for scale farms
- Import pork landed cost RMB 18/kg vs domestic RMB 16/kg 2022
- Slaughter fee averaged RMB 15/head in 2022
- Corn price RMB 2,600/ton impacted feed costs down 8% 2022
- Soybean meal RMB 4,200/ton average 2022
- Total industry losses in 2021 RMB 150 billion reversed to profits RMB 100 billion 2022
- Pork export price FOB RMB 22/kg 2022
- Labor cost RMB 1.2/kg production 2022
- Veterinary cost down 10% to RMB 0.8/kg 2022
- Electricity/water for farms RMB 0.5/kg 2022
- Capital investment in pig farms RMB 5,000/sow capacity 2022
- Depreciation cost RMB 1.1/kg 2022 large farms
- Marketing/sales cost 3% of revenue 2022
- RMB/USD exchange rate impacted import costs at 6.9 average 2022
- Subsidies to industry RMB 20 billion in 2022 for biosecurity
Market Prices and Economics Interpretation
China's pork industry staged a remarkable comeback in 2022, transforming from a year of profound oinking into a period of squealing profits, as disciplined cost management, favorable feed prices, and strategic subsidies allowed producers to thrive even while consumer prices fell.
Production and Supply
- In 2022, China's pork production reached 53.91 million metric tons, marking a 2.9% increase from 2021 and recovering fully from the African Swine Fever impact
- China's sow herd expanded to 42.3 million heads by the end of 2022, up 1.9% year-on-year, supporting future production growth
- Pork output in Henan province, the top producer, accounted for 8.5% of national total at 4.58 million tons in 2022
- National pig slaughter volume hit 715.26 million heads in 2022, a 3.1% rise from prior year
- By Q4 2023, China's live pig production capacity stabilized at 710 million heads annually, per Ministry of Agriculture data
- In 2021, pork production was 52.96 million tons, with a CAGR of 1.2% from 2017-2021 post-ASF recovery
- Shandong province produced 4.12 million tons of pork in 2022, second to Henan nationally
- Average daily pig slaughter in China averaged 1.96 million heads in 2022, up from 1.85 million in 2021
- China's commercial pig farming ratio reached 95% of total production by 2022, minimizing smallholder contributions
- Pork self-sufficiency rate in China was 97.5% in 2022, supported by domestic production surge
- In 2023 H1, pork output grew 1.8% YoY to 26.5 million tons, driven by sow herd expansion
- Sichuan province's pork production was 3.87 million tons in 2022, ranking third nationally
- National fattening pig inventory stood at 410 million heads end-2022, up 2.5% YoY
- Pork production per sow averaged 24.5 piglets in 2022, improved from 23.8 in 2021 due to better genetics
- Guangdong province output hit 2.95 million tons in 2022, boosted by integrated farms
- China's pork industry achieved 55 million tons production target ahead in 2023 Q3
- Hebei province produced 2.81 million tons, fourth-ranked in 2022
- Breeding sow productivity rose to 28.2 weaned piglets per sow annually in 2022
- Jiangsu pork output was 2.67 million tons in 2022
- National pig farming costs fell 5% YoY to RMB 14.2/kg in 2022 due to feed efficiency
- Hunan province's 2.45 million tons pork in 2022
- Integrated enterprise production share reached 55% of national total by 2022
- Anhui output 2.32 million tons in 2022
- Piglet survival rate improved to 96.5% in large-scale farms in 2022
- Hubei province 2.18 million tons pork
- Daily live pig output capacity hit 2.1 million heads by end-2022
- Jiangxi 2.05 million tons
- Fattening pig average daily gain reached 850g in modern farms 2022
- Guangxi 1.92 million tons pork 2022
- National sow culling rate dropped to 18% in 2022 from 25% pre-ASF
Production and Supply Interpretation
China's pork industry, in a remarkable feat of agricultural logistics, has not only bounced back from the swine fever crisis but has engineered itself into a high-efficiency machine, churning out over 700 million pigs annually with such commercial precision that the nation now practically swims in nearly self-sufficient, provincially-sourced bacon.
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