China, once a demographic titan that grew from half a billion people to over 1.4 billion in just seventy years, has now entered an era of historic decline, with its population not only shrinking for a second consecutive year but also aging at a pace that will profoundly reshape its future.
Key Takeaways
- China's total population at the end of 2023 was 1,409,670,000, down 2.08 million or 0.15% from 2022.
- As of 2020 Census, China's mainland population was 1,411,778,724.
- China's population peaked at approximately 1.426 billion in 2021 according to UN estimates.
- 12,175,000 births registered in 2023.
- 11,433,000 deaths in 2023.
- 9,027,000 births in 2022.
- 0-14 years: 17.17% of population in 2020 census.
- 15-59 years: 63.35% working age in 2020.
- 60+ years: 18.70% in 2020, up from 13.26% in 2010.
- Sex ratio at birth: 111.1 males per 100 females in 2020.
- Overall sex ratio: 104.7 males per 100 females in 2020.
- Sex ratio 0-14: 113.2 in 2020.
- Urban population: 65.22% or 920 million in 2023.
- Rural population: 34.78% or 489 million in 2023.
- Urbanization rate 2020 census: 63.89%.
China's population is now declining after decades of rapid growth, signaling a historic demographic shift.
Age Distribution
- 0-14 years: 17.17% of population in 2020 census.
- 15-59 years: 63.35% working age in 2020.
- 60+ years: 18.70% in 2020, up from 13.26% in 2010.
- 65+ years: 13.50% in 2023.
- Median age: 40.1 years in 2023.
- Dependency ratio total: 44.8% in 2020.
- Youth dependency: 24.4%, old-age: 20.4% in 2020.
- Population under 15 projected to fall to 11% by 2050.
- 80+ years: 2.62% in 2020 census.
- Age pyramid narrowing at base due to low TFR.
- Working age population peaked 2014 at 1.02 billion.
- Children 0-4: 5.06% in 2023.
- School-age 6-11: stable at ~100 million.
- Elderly 60-69: largest group 12.5% in 2023.
- Centenarians: over 60,000 in 2023.
- Age structure 2020: 0-14 male 115 million, female 107 million.
- 15-64: male 452 million, female 419 million in 2020.
- 65+: male 63 million, female 71 million.
- UN projection 0-14: 12.4% in 2050.
- Old-age dependency to rise to 50% by 2050.
- Youth bulge ended, now aging society.
- 2023 age groups: 0-14 240 million.
- 15-59: 858 million in 2023.
- 60+: 296 million in 2023.
Age Distribution Interpretation
The statistics show a nation maturing rapidly, with its formerly bustling youth demographic now being gently but decisively overshadowed by a swelling elderly population, which presents a profound challenge of supporting more grandparents with fewer grandchildren.
Births, Deaths, and Migration
- 12,175,000 births registered in 2023.
- 11,433,000 deaths in 2023.
- 9,027,000 births in 2022.
- 10,414,000 deaths in 2022.
- Total fertility rate 1.0 in 2023.
- TFR was 1.18 in 2022.
- Replacement level fertility is 2.1, China's is below since 1990s.
- Annual births declined 208,000 from 2022 to 2023.
- Deaths increased 1,019,000 from 2022 to 2023.
- Net international migration outflow: about 300,000 annually.
- Internal migrants (floating population): 375 million in 2020.
- Rural-urban migrants: 296 million inter-provincial in 2020.
- One-child policy births affected 400 million fewer births est.
- COVID-19 deaths impact minimal in official 2023 stats post-zero.
- Life expectancy male: 76.0 years in 2023.
- Life expectancy female: 80.4 years in 2023.
- Stillbirth rate: 3.7 per 1,000 in recent years.
- Neonatal mortality: 4.0 per 1,000 live births.
- Under-5 mortality: 5.6 per 1,000.
- Marriages registered: 6.1 million fewer in 2023 vs 2022.
- Divorces: 2.8 million in 2023.
- 2020 census births 1950s cohort high due to baby boom.
- Migration to cities peaked at 2.4% urban growth 2010s.
- Overseas Chinese diaspora: 60 million est.
- Remittances inflow: $57 billion in 2022.
- Emigration rate: 0.1% of population.
Births, Deaths, and Migration Interpretation
China finds itself in a silent demographic reversal, where the echoes of its past one-child policy now meet a sobering present of fewer cradles and more coffins, all while its cities swell with internal migrants and its youth increasingly postpone or forgo family life altogether.
Population Size and Growth
- China's total population at the end of 2023 was 1,409,670,000, down 2.08 million or 0.15% from 2022.
- As of 2020 Census, China's mainland population was 1,411,778,724.
- China's population peaked at approximately 1.426 billion in 2021 according to UN estimates.
- World Bank data shows China's population at 1,425,887,337 in 2022.
- CIA World Factbook estimates China's 2023 population at 1,413,182,000.
- China's population density is 148 people per square kilometer as of 2023.
- From 1950 to 2023, China's population grew from 543 million to 1.41 billion.
- Annual population growth rate in China was -0.15% in 2023.
- China's population in 1953 census was 594,067,420.
- 1982 census recorded 1,008,175,288 people in mainland China.
- 1990 census: 1,133,682,501.
- 2000 census: 1,242,612,226.
- 2010 census: 1,339,724,852.
- Population projection for 2050: 1.313 billion (medium variant UN).
- 2100 projection: 767 million (UN medium).
- China's population share of world total: 17.72% in 2023.
- Urban population growth rate 2020-2023 averaged 1.5% annually.
- Total fertility rate contributed to growth decline post-2016.
- Life expectancy at birth rose to 78.2 years in 2023.
- Infant mortality rate fell to 4.5 per 1,000 live births in 2023.
- Maternal mortality ratio: 14.5 per 100,000 live births in 2023.
- Crude birth rate: 6.39 per 1,000 in 2023.
- Crude death rate: 7.87 per 1,000 in 2023.
- Natural growth rate: -1.48 per 1,000 in 2023.
- Net migration rate: -0.1 migrants per 1,000 population annually.
- Population doubled from 1967 to 2017 approximately.
- 2022 population: 1,411,750,000.
- 2021 population: 1,412,360,000.
- 2020 population: 1,411,780,000.
- Population growth 2010-2020: 5.38%.
Population Size and Growth Interpretation
China has finally perfected the art of subtraction, swapping its legendary demographic boom for a meticulous, statistically-significant sigh as it enters the era of the carefully managed decline.
Sex and Gender Ratios
- Sex ratio at birth: 111.1 males per 100 females in 2020.
- Overall sex ratio: 104.7 males per 100 females in 2020.
- Sex ratio 0-14: 113.2 in 2020.
- 15-59: 104.5 males/females.
- 60+: 89.4 males per 100 females.
- 30 million more males than females due to one-child policy.
- Sex ratio at birth declined to 108.9 in 2023.
- Male population 2023: 720 million, female 690 million.
- Female life expectancy advantage: 4.4 years.
- Marriage age males 29.4, females 27.9 in 2023.
- Single males 30+: 20 million est.
- Sex-selective abortions peaked 2000s.
- Rural sex ratio higher: 107.7 vs urban 103.5 in 2020.
- Gender parity index education: near 1.0.
- Labor force female participation: 60%.
- Maternal age first birth rising to 28+.
- Widows outnumber widowers 4:1 in elderly.
- Boys born per 100 girls: 108 in 2022.
- Female-headed households rising post-policy.
- Gender imbalance peaks at ages 20-40.
- Policy relaxation 2016 reduced ratio slightly.
- Urban female ratio 102.5 in 2023.
- Rural male surplus 20 million.
- Female literacy 96.8% vs male 97.5%.
Sex and Gender Ratios Interpretation
The one-child policy crafted a generation where men crowded the cradle only to find themselves in a lonely adulthood, while women, though outnumbered in youth, inherit the longevity and resilience to outlast them.
Urbanization, Regional, Ethnic
- Urban population: 65.22% or 920 million in 2023.
- Rural population: 34.78% or 489 million in 2023.
- Urbanization rate 2020 census: 63.89%.
- Shanghai most dense urban: 3,922/km².
- Beijing population 21.86 million 2020.
- Han Chinese: 91.11% or 1.288 billion in 2020.
- Zhuang: 1.34% 18.9 million.
- Hui: 0.81% 11.4 million.
- Guangdong province: 126.01 million 2020.
- Shandong: 101.53 million.
- Henan: 99.37 million.
- Rural poverty population fell to 16.6 million 2020.
- Tibetan pop: 6.28 million, 0.45%.
- Uyghur: 11.62 million in Xinjiang.
- Floating pop urban hukou ineligible: 236 million 2020.
- Mega-cities 10+ million: 15 in China.
- Sichuan province: 83.90 million.
- Hubei: 57.83 million.
- Hunan: 66.37 million.
- Ethnic minorities: 8.89% or 125.5 million.
- Manchu: 10.4 million.
- Miao: 9.43 million.
- Yi: 8.85 million.
- Tujia: 8.35 million.
- Hebei province: 74.61 million.
Urbanization, Regional, Ethnic Interpretation
China’s urbanization has drawn nearly two-thirds of its people into its cities, creating a nation where over 900 million urbanites coexist with a rural population larger than that of most countries, all while navigating the complex tapestry of its vast ethnic diversity and internal migration.
Sources & References
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