With billions flowing into campaign coffers and unprecedented sums shaping political battlegrounds, understanding how money and media influence modern elections is crucial to grasping their final outcomes.
Key Takeaways
- In the 2020 US presidential election, the Biden campaign raised a total of $1.6 billion, with 61% coming from small individual donations under $200
- The Trump 2020 campaign spent $1.1 billion overall, including $215 million on digital advertising alone
- Democratic Senate candidates in 2022 raised $1.2 billion collectively, surpassing Republicans by 25%
- In the 2020 election, 18-29 year olds made up 17% of the electorate, with 55% voting for Biden
- White voters comprised 67% of 2020 turnout, supporting Trump by 57%
- Black voters were 12% of 2020 electorate, 87% for Biden
- Biden campaign spent $1.5 billion on TV ads in 2020, 40% in final month
- Trump 2020 digital ad spend $215 million, Facebook $112 million
- 2022 midterms saw $9.4 billion total ad spend, up 40% from 2018
- Biden won national popular vote by 7 million, 51.3% to 46.8%
- Final 2020 polls averaged Biden +8.4 nationally, accurate within 1%
- RCP average Oct 2020: Biden +7.2, Trump +2.5 in swing states
- Biden flipped AZ, GA, WI for 306 EV win in 2020
- Democrats lost House trifecta in 2022 midterms, GOP +9 seats
- Trump 2016: 304 EV, popular vote 46.1%
Modern campaigns now spend billions on media and mobilize diverse voter demographics.
Advertising and Media
- Biden campaign spent $1.5 billion on TV ads in 2020, 40% in final month
- Trump 2020 digital ad spend $215 million, Facebook $112 million
- 2022 midterms saw $9.4 billion total ad spend, up 40% from 2018
- Harris 2024 campaign launched $100 million ad buy in August across battlegrounds
- In 2016, Clinton TV ads $656 million vs Trump $104 million
- Super PAC Future Forward spent $200 million on pro-Biden ads in 2020
- Fox News received $78 million in 2020 campaign ads, top network
- CNN aired $50 million in 2020 political ads
- TikTok political ads in 2024 exceeded $10 million by September
- Google's YouTube political ad revenue 2020: $1.3 billion
- Facebook banned Trump post-Jan 6, halting $70 million ad flow
- In 2022 PA Senate, Fetterman ads $50 million, Oz $72 million
- MSNBC ad spend 2020: $25 million, mostly Democratic
- Podcast ads surged 300% in 2024 cycle, $50 million total
- Local TV stations captured 55% of 2020 ad dollars, $3 billion
- Spanish-language Univision ads 2020: $100 million
- Negative ads comprised 90% of 2020 presidential airwaves in October
- Streaming platforms like Hulu saw $150 million political ads 2020
- In 2024, crypto PACs spent $20 million on pro-Trump ads
- Radio ads 2020 total $200 million, battleground focus
- Billboards and outdoor ads $50 million in 2020 cycle
- Email marketing reach: Biden list 35 million, open rate 40%
- SMS texts sent by campaigns 2020: 10 billion, 25% opt-out rate
- Influencer partnerships 2024: 500+ creators, $5 million spend
- Print ads declined to 2% of 2020 budget, $20 million total
Advertising and Media Interpretation
In politics, the only thing more inflated than the promises are the ad budgets, which have ballooned into a multi-billion-dollar arms race where every screen, radio, and billboard screams for your vote, proving that while you can't put a price on democracy, campaigns will certainly rent its attention by the second.
Financial Aspects
- In the 2020 US presidential election, the Biden campaign raised a total of $1.6 billion, with 61% coming from small individual donations under $200
- The Trump 2020 campaign spent $1.1 billion overall, including $215 million on digital advertising alone
- Democratic Senate candidates in 2022 raised $1.2 billion collectively, surpassing Republicans by 25%
- The 2016 Clinton campaign allocated 68% of its budget to media buys, totaling $457 million
- Super PACs supporting Biden in 2020 contributed $1.8 billion, with top donor Michael Bloomberg giving $100 million
- Republican gubernatorial campaigns in 2022 averaged $15.4 million per race in swing states
- The 2024 Trump campaign reported $100 million in Q1 fundraising, boosted by small-dollar donors post-conviction
- Kamala Harris's 2024 campaign raised $81 million in 24 hours after entering the race
- In 2018 midterms, Beto O'Rourke's Senate campaign raised $80 million, 55% from grassroots
- GOP House candidates in 2020 spent an average of $2.1 million each, up 15% from 2018
- ActBlue processed $4.5 billion for Democrats in 2020 cycle
- WinRed platform for Republicans handled $1.8 billion in 2020
- The 2022 Georgia Senate runoff saw $500 million in total spending by both sides
- Obama's 2012 campaign raised $715 million, with 66% from donations under $200
- In 2024 primaries, Nikki Haley's campaign spent $114 million, mostly on ads
- Democratic challengers in 2022 flipped 9 House seats with average fundraising of $3.2 million each
- Koch network spent $889 million in 2020 cycle across races
- Bloomberg's 2020 self-funded campaign spent $1 billion total
- In 2016, Sanders raised $228 million, 99% from individuals averaging $27 per donation
- 2024 RFK Jr. campaign raised $15 million by Q2, with 70% small donors
- Texas AG Ken Paxton's 2022 primary defense raised $4 million amid impeachment
- National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $268 million in 2022 cycle
- AARP spent $28 million on 2022 midterms advocating senior issues
- In 2020, Latino Victory Fund raised $12 million for Hispanic candidates
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund spent $45 million in 2022 supporting Democrats
- NRA Political Victory Fund raised $30 million in 2020
- In 2018, House Majority PAC spent $267 million on Democratic ads
- Everytown for Gun Safety raised $50 million in 2020 cycle
- 2024 DNC raised $200 million post-Biden dropout
Financial Aspects Interpretation
While the political machine may be oiled by billionaires and PACs, the American electoral engine ultimately hums on the small change of millions, proving that even in a billion-dollar race, democracy still has a price—and we’re all paying it, one way or another.
Outcomes and Impacts
- Biden flipped AZ, GA, WI for 306 EV win in 2020
- Democrats lost House trifecta in 2022 midterms, GOP +9 seats
- Trump 2016: 304 EV, popular vote 46.1%
- Obama 2012: 332 EV, 51.1% popular
- 2020 turnout 158 million, +20 million from 2016
- GOP Senate +2 in 2020, held trifecta pre-Jan 6
- 2022 Dems held Senate +1 net gain
- Fetterman beat Oz in PA Senate 2022 by 4.9%
- Warnock won GA Senate runoff 51.4-48.6%
- GOP flipped 9 governorships in 2022, net +7 trifectas
- Voter ID laws in 36 states impacted 2020 turnout minimally
- Mail ballots 46% of 2020 votes, Biden 65% of them
- Kari Lake lost AZ Gov 2022 by 0.6%, lawsuit dismissed
- Trump endorsed 219 candidates 2022, 186 won (85%)
- Mail-in rejection rate avg 0.8% in 2020
- Independents broke for Biden 54-41 in 2020
- Women gender gap 2020: +15 Biden
- Suburban shift: Biden +11 over Clinton 2016
- Black turnout 62.6% in 2020, down slightly from 2012
- Latino turnout record 53.7% in 2020
- Youth turnout 55% in 2020, highest in 50 years
- Post-2020, 19 states passed 34 election laws
- Jan 6 riot led to 2 impeachments, no convictions
Outcomes and Impacts Interpretation
Biden’s 2020 victory built a grand electoral coalition that proved to be a magnificent but fragile sandcastle, as the very next tide of midterms washed much of it away, leaving everyone to fiercely argue over how to rebuild the beach.
Polling and Surveys
- Biden won national popular vote by 7 million, 51.3% to 46.8%
- Final 2020 polls averaged Biden +8.4 nationally, accurate within 1%
- RCP average Oct 2020: Biden +7.2, Trump +2.5 in swing states
- Gallup final 2020: Biden 51-48 lead among likely voters
- 2022 generic ballot polls averaged D+1, GOP won House by 9 seats
- PA 2020 polls missed Trump support by 4 points
- Youth poll CIRCLE 2020: 60% Biden among 18-29, turnout projection 50%
- Latino polls 2020 underestimated Trump by 8 points
- 2024 Harris vs Trump polls averaged +1.5 Harris as of Oct
- MI 2020 final polls: Biden +6, won by 2.8%
- WI 2020 polls averaged Biden +8, actual +0.6
- AZ 2020 Trump overperformed polls by 4.5 points
- GA 2020 polls tight, Biden won by 0.2%
- NV 2020 Biden polls +5, won +2.4
- NC 2020 Trump polls +1, won +1.3
- 2016 polls nationally Hillary +3.2, lost by 2.1
- 2022 Senate polls averaged Dem hold, GOP +1 net
- Undecided voters 8% in final 2020 polls, broke 60-40 Biden
- Phone vs online polls 2020: online missed Trump by 3 more points
- Education weighting key: polls underweighted non-college by 2-3%
- 2024 battleground polls: Harris +1 aggregate
- Iowa 2024 caucus polls spot-on: Trump 51% actual 51%
- NH primary 2024: Haley overperformed polls by 5 points
- Voter enthusiasm polls 2020: Dems +10 Biden
- Issue polls: COVID top concern 40% in Oct 2020
- Economy polls: 35% priority, Trump edge +15
Polling and Surveys Interpretation
The polling crystal ball remains stubbornly foggy, as evidenced by a history of national surveys being deceptively close while swing state margins are often a coin flip masked by shy Trump voters and education-weighting errors, making the current horse race feel like a déjà vu of statistical mischief waiting to happen again.
Voter Demographics
- In the 2020 election, 18-29 year olds made up 17% of the electorate, with 55% voting for Biden
- White voters comprised 67% of 2020 turnout, supporting Trump by 57%
- Black voters were 12% of 2020 electorate, 87% for Biden
- Latino voters reached 13% in 2020, with 65% backing Biden but Trump gaining 32%
- Women were 53% of 2020 voters, favoring Biden 57-42
- Men accounted for 47% of 2020 turnout, Trump winning 53-45
- College graduates were 38% of 2020 voters, 62% for Biden
- Non-college whites were 41% of electorate, 65% Trump support
- Suburban voters grew to 26% in 2020, Biden winning 50-48
- Rural voters 18%, Trump 65-33
- Urban voters 32%, Biden 59-39
- Independents 26% of 2020 voters, split 54% Biden 41% Trump
- Democrats 37%, Republicans 36% of electorate
- In 2022 midterms, turnout among 18-29 was 23%, down from 2020
- Seniors 65+ were 27% in 2022, highest turnout at 71%
- Asian Americans 4% of 2020 voters, 61% Biden
- Native Americans estimated 1-2% turnout, strong Democratic lean
- In 2024 early voting, women outpaced men by 52-48% in battlegrounds
- Union households 19% of 2020 voters, Biden 59-39
- Evangelical Christians 20-25%, 80% Trump in 2020
- In 2022, Latino men shifted 12 points toward GOP
- First-time voters 11% in 2020, 60% Biden
- Military veterans 6% of electorate, Trump 60-38
- In 2020, voters without college degree 62%, Trump edge
- Catholics 20% of voters, split 50-49 Biden in 2020
- Jewish voters 2%, 70% Biden
- In 2022 Georgia, Black women turnout 64%, key to Warnock win
- Overall 2020 turnout 66.8%, highest since 1900
Voter Demographics Interpretation
The 2020 election revealed an America cleaved by demography and geography, where Biden’s victory was woven from a coalition of the young, the non-white, the college-educated, and women, while Trump's fortress was built on white men, rural hearts, and the evangelical faithful, making the political landscape a patchwork quilt of starkly opposing loyalties.
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