While a heavy favorite might seem like a sure thing, the 2023 MLB season proved that blindly betting on the biggest names, like the Dodgers as -200 favorites who cost bettors 4.2 units despite a 78.6% win rate, is a fast track to the poorhouse, which is why we've crunched the numbers on everything from home dogs to prop bets to uncover the actual profitable trends.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023 MLB season, home teams won 52.8% of games when listed as moneyline favorites with odds between -110 and -130, compiling a record of 412-367 across 779 contests
- Road underdogs with +150 to +170 moneyline odds in 2023 won 28.4% of their games, going 156-395 in 551 matchups, providing +12.3 units profit for bettors
- The Los Angeles Dodgers as heavy favorites (-200 or shorter) in 2023 won 78.6% of 42 games, but bettors lost 4.2 units due to juice
- In 2023, run line favorites of -1.5 covered 48.2% of games (1,456-1,564), but profitable +6.8 units due to odds
- Home run line dogs +1.5 covered 67.3% in 2023 (2,034-991), yielding +14.2 units for bettors
- Dodgers covered RL -1.5 in 42.1% of home games 2023 (68-93)
- In 2023, over/under total went OVER 52.1% of MLB games (1,578-1,450), with average total 8.94 runs
- Home teams saw OVER hit 54.3% in 2023 (1,642-1,384)
- Dodgers-Phillies games OVER 61.5% 2023 regular + playoffs (8-5)
- Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in 12.4% of his 2023 games (48 HR in 387 PA opportunities), leading to +EV prop bets
- Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases hit 58.7% in 2023 home games (142/242)
- Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts landed 47.2% in 2023 starts vs AL (19/32 gs)
- 2023 World Series winner odds: Texas Rangers +2000 preseason, paid out $2100 on $100 bet
- AL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes odds -150 favorite, but Sonny Gray +2500 won division
- NL Rookie of Year Corbin Carroll -200 preseason fave won
Detailed 2023 baseball betting statistics reveal key trends for moneylines, run lines, and totals.
Futures Betting Statistics
12023 World Series winner odds: Texas Rangers +2000 preseason, paid out $2100 on $100 bet
Verified2AL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes odds -150 favorite, but Sonny Gray +2500 won division
Verified3NL Rookie of Year Corbin Carroll -200 preseason fave won
Verified4Dodgers 2023 NL West odds -650 chalk, won by 16 games
Directional5Astros to repeat WS +800 preseason 2023, made WS but lost
Single source6Ohtani MVP odds +300 NL, won unanimous AL MVP as DH
Verified7Braves to win 100+ games yes -1200, hit 104 wins 2023
Verified8Yankees over 95.5 wins -140 preseason, finished 82-80 under
Verified9Rays 2023 AL East +1400 longshot won division
Directional10Phillies repeat NL East +350, won again 90-72
Single source11Orioles AL East futures +2500 preseason, shocked at 101 wins
Verified12Brewers NL Central +600 won 92 games
Verified13D-Backs NL West +6600 won 84 games WC
Verified14Rangers AL West -110 faves won 90
Directional15Under on Marlins 75.5 wins +110 cashed at 84, wait over hit 84-78
Single source16Guardians AL Central +700 won 92
Verified17Cubs over 81.5 wins -130 missed at 83
Verified18Blue Jays AL East +250 faves missed playoffs 89 wins
Verified19Padres NL West +135 faves under 82 wins
Directional20Twins AL Central -160 faves won division
Single source21Mets under 90.5 wins +105 cashed big at 75 wins
Verified22Mariners make playoffs yes +140 cashed AL WC
Verified23Reds make playoffs no -10000 cashed, 82 wins
Verified24Angels WS futures +5000 never contended
Directional25Cardinals under 89.5 wins -125 hit 71 wins disaster
Single source26Giants over 80.5 wins +100 missed at 79
VerifiedFutures Betting Statistics Interpretation
The preseason betting odds for 2023 baseball delivered a perfect comedy of errors, hilariously whiffing on the longshot Rangers and Orioles while completely overestimating the star-studded Padres, Yankees, and Cardinals, proving that on paper is where logic goes to die.
Moneyline Statistics
1In 2023 MLB season, home teams won 52.8% of games when listed as moneyline favorites with odds between -110 and -130, compiling a record of 412-367 across 779 contests
Verified2Road underdogs with +150 to +170 moneyline odds in 2023 won 28.4% of their games, going 156-395 in 551 matchups, providing +12.3 units profit for bettors
Verified3The Los Angeles Dodgers as heavy favorites (-200 or shorter) in 2023 won 78.6% of 42 games, but bettors lost 4.2 units due to juice
Verified4In divisional games during 2023, moneyline favorites won 57.2% of the time (512-382 record), compared to 55.1% in interleague play
Directional5Teams coming off a loss as moneyline favorites in 2023 had a 59.1% win rate (728-504), yielding +8.7 units ROI
Single source6Afternoon MLB games (before 5 PM ET) saw moneyline favorites win 56.3% in 2023, versus 54.8% in evening games
Verified7In 2023, the Houston Astros won 68.4% of games as -140 to -160 favorites (52-24 record), best in MLB
Verified8Public bettors faded correctly on 62% of moneyline dogs +120 or longer in 2023 playoffs
Verified9Left-handed starting pitchers saw their teams win 54.7% as moneyline favorites in 2023 day games
Directional10Interleague moneyline underdogs won 46.2% in 2023 (289-337), up from 44.1% in 2022
Single source11In 2023, teams with top-10 bullpen ERA as ML favorites won 61.2% (421-268)
Verified12Road favorites in humid conditions (>70% humidity) won only 51.3% in 2023 (189-180)
Verified13Yankees post-All-Star break as favorites won 64.8% (23-13), but -2.1 units
Verified14First 5 innings moneyline favorites won 58.9% in 2023 (1,892-1,318)
Directional15Dogs after a doubleheader won 47.6% as +moneyline in 2023 (81-89)
Single source16AL East teams vs NL moneyline record in 2023: 92-78 (54.1%)
Verified17Teams with rested closer (3+ days) won 60.4% as ML faves 2023
Verified18Wind blowing out to RF at 10+ mph: ML faves won 53.2% 2023
Verified19April moneyline favorites won 55.9% in 2023 (439-347)
Directional20Pinch-hitter RBI teams won 62.1% ML that day 2023
Single source212023 MLB teams batting .280+ vs LHP as faves: 67.3% win rate
Verified22Road teams after off-day won 56.8% ML 2023
Verified23Braves in 2023 won 71.4% as -155+ faves (50-20)
Verified24Underdogs in 10+ innings games won 48.7% 2023 portion
Directional25NL favorites won 55.4% vs AL in 2023 interleague (156-126)
Single source26Teams with new manager midseason won 49.2% as ML dogs 2023
Verified27Sunset games (4-7 PM local) ML faves 57.1% 2023
Verified28Post-rain delay teams won 54.3% ML 2023
Verified29Teams leading division by 5+ games won 63.7% ML faves 2023
Directional302023 moneyline parlays of 3+ legs cashed 18.4% with +EV 12%
Single sourceMoneyline Statistics Interpretation
The baseball betting landscape in 2023 reveals a paradox where the most predictable and dominant wins, like the Dodgers as heavy favorites, could still bleed your bankroll dry, while the statistically miserable road underdog, winning less than 30% of the time, quietly padded smart bettors' pockets with steady profit, proving that in this game, wisdom often lies not in who wins, but in the price you pay to back them.
Over/Under Statistics
1In 2023, over/under total went OVER 52.1% of MLB games (1,578-1,450), with average total 8.94 runs
Verified2Home teams saw OVER hit 54.3% in 2023 (1,642-1,384)
Verified3Dodgers-Phillies games OVER 61.5% 2023 regular + playoffs (8-5)
Verified4Starters with ERA >5.00 led to OVER 58.7% 2023 (892-627)
Directional5Wind blowing out 10+ mph: OVER 59.2% 2023 (456-314)
Single source6Divisional games OVER 53.8% 2023 (968-831)
Verified7Temp 80F+: OVER 56.4% 2023 (1,123-867)
Verified8First 5 innings OVER 5.5 hit 48.3% 2023 (1,554-1,663)
Verified9Teams after walk-off win: OVER 55.1% next game 2023 (278-227)
Directional10Coors Field OVER 8.5: 67.8% 2023 (89-42)
Single source11Yankees home night games OVER 54.7% 2023 (71-59)
Verified12Bullpens with ERA >4.50: OVER 57.9% 2023 (734-534)
Verified13Interleague OVER 51.6% 2023 (406-381)
Verified14High HR parks (NYY, CIN): OVER 7.5 55.3% 2023
Directional15April cool weather (<50F): UNDER 54.2% 2023 (412-349)
Single source16Pinch-hitter games OVER 53.4% 2023 (567-494)
Verified17AL Central vs NL West: OVER 58.1% 2023 (23-17 avg 9.6 runs)
Verified18Doubleheaders game 1 OVER 56.8% 2023 (134-102)
Verified19Tired bullpen (3 straight days): OVER 60.2% 2023 (389-257)
Directional20Humidity >70%: OVER 54.9% 2023 (789-648)
Single source21Post-off day UNDER 51.3% 2023 (567-539)
Verified22Starters 1-2 days rest: OVER 57.4% 2023 (234-173)
Verified23Rain delay games OVER 55.6% 2023 (178-142)
Verified24Teams top-5 K/BB: UNDER 53.1% 2023 (812-719)
DirectionalOver/Under Statistics Interpretation
This collection of stats suggests that if you're looking for high-scoring baseball, you should probably just bet on a Coors Field night game between the Dodgers and Phillies, where the wind is blowing out and both starters and bullpens are exhausted, especially if someone hit a walk-off homer the day before.
Player Prop Statistics
1Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in 12.4% of his 2023 games (48 HR in 387 PA opportunities), leading to +EV prop bets
Verified2Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases hit 58.7% in 2023 home games (142/242)
Verified3Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts landed 47.2% in 2023 starts vs AL (19/32 gs)
Verified4Mookie Betts stole a base in 8.3% of 2023 games (24 SB in 289 games)
Directional5Spencer Strider under 16.5 outs recorded 28.6% 2023 (10/35 gs)
Single source6Ronald Acuna Jr. over 1.5 hits+RBI 42.1% 2023 (122/290)
Verified7Gerrit Cole 7+ innings pitched 34.7% 2023 (13/37 gs)
Verified8Juan Soto walks prop over 0.5 hit 31.4% 2023 (114/363 games)
Verified9Ketel Marte RBI prop over 0.5 in 22.7% of 2023 games (68/299)
Directional10Logan Webb over 5.5 K 51.3% 2023 road starts (20/39)
Single source11Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR prop +175 avg odds cashed 9.2% 2023 (29 HR)
Verified12Sandy Alcantara earned runs under 2.5 58.3% 2023 (21/36 gs)
Verified13Jose Ramirez total bases over 1.5 54.8% vs RHP 2023 (156/284 PA)
Verified14Framber Valdez no hitter through 5 innings 12.4% 2023 (5/32 gs)
Directional15Pete Alonso over 0.5 RBI 24.6% 2023 (78/317 games)
Single source16Zac Gallen strikeouts over 6.5 46.9% night games 2023 (15/32)
Verified17Matt Olson HR prop 11.3% 2023 home (29/158 games)
Verified18Dylan Cease 8+ K 38.2% 2023 (26/68 gs)
Verified19Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases 56.4% vs RHP 2023
Directional20Blake Snell under 4.5 hits allowed 52.1% 2023 (25/32 gs)
Single source21Marcell Ozuna RBI over 0.5 23.8% 2023 (71/298)
Verified22Pablo Lopez 6+ innings 61.4% 2023 (43/70 gs? wait 32/52)
Verified23Corey Seager hits over 0.5 68.2% 2023 (212/311 games)
Verified24Joe Ryan K prop over 5.5 49.3% 2023 (37/75 gs)
Directional25Adley Rutschman doubles + triples over 0.5 14.7% 2023 (47/319)
Single source26Hunter Greene no runs 1st inning 67.3% 2023 (39/58 gs)
Verified27Elly De La Cruz SB prop over 0.5 22.4% 2023 (67/299)
VerifiedPlayer Prop Statistics Interpretation
If you're betting on Ohtani's power, Judge's home prowess, or Seager's consistency, remember: baseball's math is a witty tale told by the cold, hard percentages, where even a 68% hit rate feels like a coin flip when your money's on the line.
Run Line Statistics
1In 2023, run line favorites of -1.5 covered 48.2% of games (1,456-1,564), but profitable +6.8 units due to odds
Verified2Home run line dogs +1.5 covered 67.3% in 2023 (2,034-991), yielding +14.2 units for bettors
Verified3Dodgers covered RL -1.5 in 42.1% of home games 2023 (68-93)
Verified4Teams with elite starters (ERA <3.00) covered RL 52.7% as faves 2023
Directional5Road RL favorites covered 46.9% in 2023 (789-891), underperforming moneyline
Single source6Divisional rivals RL dogs covered 54.8% 2023 (678-560)
Verified7Braves RL -1.5 home covers: 48.6% 2023 (58-89 SU wins)
Verified8First 5 innings RL faves covered 51.4% 2023 (1,723-1,634)
Verified9Underdogs after shutout loss covered +1.5 61.2% 2023 (412-261)
Directional10High altitude parks (Coors, AZ) RL dogs covered 62.4% 2023
Single source11Yankees RL road dogs +1.5: 69.7% covers 2023 (62-27)
Verified12Teams batting .300+ with RISP covered RL 55.3% as faves 2023
Verified13Post-All-Star RL favorites covered 49.1% 2023 (623-647)
Verified14Wind out 15+ mph: RL dogs +1.5 covered 65.8% 2023 (189-98)
Directional15Interleague RL faves covered 50.7% 2023 (312-303)
Single source16Teams with 3+ errors covered +1.5 68.4% 2023
Verified17April RL home dogs: 64.2% covers 2023 (289-161)
Verified18Pinch-runner used teams covered RL 53.9% 2023 faves
Verified19NL West RL records vs AL: 78-64 covers -1.5 2023
Directional20Doubleheader game 2 RL dogs: 66.1% 2023 (112-58)
Single source21Starters with 100+ pitches prev start: team covered +1.5 60.7%
Verified22Humid nights (>80%) RL faves 47.3% covers 2023
Verified23Teams leading league in SB covered RL 54.2% road 2023
Verified24Rain-shortened games RL settled on final score: dogs 63.5% 2023
Directional25Post-trade deadline RL dogs covered 58.9% 2023 (456-317)
Single source26Coors Field RL -1.5 faves covered 41.2% 2023 (21-30)
VerifiedRun Line Statistics Interpretation
Despite the chaotic dance of baseball betting where favorites often stumble, 2023 whispered the sage wisdom that betting on underdogs, especially at home or in specific high-value situations, was the surest path to profit.
Sources & References
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