While a heavy favorite might seem like a sure thing, the 2023 MLB season proved that blindly betting on the biggest names, like the Dodgers as -200 favorites who cost bettors 4.2 units despite a 78.6% win rate, is a fast track to the poorhouse, which is why we've crunched the numbers on everything from home dogs to prop bets to uncover the actual profitable trends.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023 MLB season, home teams won 52.8% of games when listed as moneyline favorites with odds between -110 and -130, compiling a record of 412-367 across 779 contests
- Road underdogs with +150 to +170 moneyline odds in 2023 won 28.4% of their games, going 156-395 in 551 matchups, providing +12.3 units profit for bettors
- The Los Angeles Dodgers as heavy favorites (-200 or shorter) in 2023 won 78.6% of 42 games, but bettors lost 4.2 units due to juice
- In 2023, run line favorites of -1.5 covered 48.2% of games (1,456-1,564), but profitable +6.8 units due to odds
- Home run line dogs +1.5 covered 67.3% in 2023 (2,034-991), yielding +14.2 units for bettors
- Dodgers covered RL -1.5 in 42.1% of home games 2023 (68-93)
- In 2023, over/under total went OVER 52.1% of MLB games (1,578-1,450), with average total 8.94 runs
- Home teams saw OVER hit 54.3% in 2023 (1,642-1,384)
- Dodgers-Phillies games OVER 61.5% 2023 regular + playoffs (8-5)
- Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in 12.4% of his 2023 games (48 HR in 387 PA opportunities), leading to +EV prop bets
- Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases hit 58.7% in 2023 home games (142/242)
- Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts landed 47.2% in 2023 starts vs AL (19/32 gs)
- 2023 World Series winner odds: Texas Rangers +2000 preseason, paid out $2100 on $100 bet
- AL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes odds -150 favorite, but Sonny Gray +2500 won division
- NL Rookie of Year Corbin Carroll -200 preseason fave won
Detailed 2023 baseball betting statistics reveal key trends for moneylines, run lines, and totals.
Futures Betting Statistics
- 2023 World Series winner odds: Texas Rangers +2000 preseason, paid out $2100 on $100 bet
- AL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes odds -150 favorite, but Sonny Gray +2500 won division
- NL Rookie of Year Corbin Carroll -200 preseason fave won
- Dodgers 2023 NL West odds -650 chalk, won by 16 games
- Astros to repeat WS +800 preseason 2023, made WS but lost
- Ohtani MVP odds +300 NL, won unanimous AL MVP as DH
- Braves to win 100+ games yes -1200, hit 104 wins 2023
- Yankees over 95.5 wins -140 preseason, finished 82-80 under
- Rays 2023 AL East +1400 longshot won division
- Phillies repeat NL East +350, won again 90-72
- Orioles AL East futures +2500 preseason, shocked at 101 wins
- Brewers NL Central +600 won 92 games
- D-Backs NL West +6600 won 84 games WC
- Rangers AL West -110 faves won 90
- Under on Marlins 75.5 wins +110 cashed at 84, wait over hit 84-78
- Guardians AL Central +700 won 92
- Cubs over 81.5 wins -130 missed at 83
- Blue Jays AL East +250 faves missed playoffs 89 wins
- Padres NL West +135 faves under 82 wins
- Twins AL Central -160 faves won division
- Mets under 90.5 wins +105 cashed big at 75 wins
- Mariners make playoffs yes +140 cashed AL WC
- Reds make playoffs no -10000 cashed, 82 wins
- Angels WS futures +5000 never contended
- Cardinals under 89.5 wins -125 hit 71 wins disaster
- Giants over 80.5 wins +100 missed at 79
Futures Betting Statistics Interpretation
The preseason betting odds for 2023 baseball delivered a perfect comedy of errors, hilariously whiffing on the longshot Rangers and Orioles while completely overestimating the star-studded Padres, Yankees, and Cardinals, proving that on paper is where logic goes to die.
Moneyline Statistics
- In 2023 MLB season, home teams won 52.8% of games when listed as moneyline favorites with odds between -110 and -130, compiling a record of 412-367 across 779 contests
- Road underdogs with +150 to +170 moneyline odds in 2023 won 28.4% of their games, going 156-395 in 551 matchups, providing +12.3 units profit for bettors
- The Los Angeles Dodgers as heavy favorites (-200 or shorter) in 2023 won 78.6% of 42 games, but bettors lost 4.2 units due to juice
- In divisional games during 2023, moneyline favorites won 57.2% of the time (512-382 record), compared to 55.1% in interleague play
- Teams coming off a loss as moneyline favorites in 2023 had a 59.1% win rate (728-504), yielding +8.7 units ROI
- Afternoon MLB games (before 5 PM ET) saw moneyline favorites win 56.3% in 2023, versus 54.8% in evening games
- In 2023, the Houston Astros won 68.4% of games as -140 to -160 favorites (52-24 record), best in MLB
- Public bettors faded correctly on 62% of moneyline dogs +120 or longer in 2023 playoffs
- Left-handed starting pitchers saw their teams win 54.7% as moneyline favorites in 2023 day games
- Interleague moneyline underdogs won 46.2% in 2023 (289-337), up from 44.1% in 2022
- In 2023, teams with top-10 bullpen ERA as ML favorites won 61.2% (421-268)
- Road favorites in humid conditions (>70% humidity) won only 51.3% in 2023 (189-180)
- Yankees post-All-Star break as favorites won 64.8% (23-13), but -2.1 units
- First 5 innings moneyline favorites won 58.9% in 2023 (1,892-1,318)
- Dogs after a doubleheader won 47.6% as +moneyline in 2023 (81-89)
- AL East teams vs NL moneyline record in 2023: 92-78 (54.1%)
- Teams with rested closer (3+ days) won 60.4% as ML faves 2023
- Wind blowing out to RF at 10+ mph: ML faves won 53.2% 2023
- April moneyline favorites won 55.9% in 2023 (439-347)
- Pinch-hitter RBI teams won 62.1% ML that day 2023
- 2023 MLB teams batting .280+ vs LHP as faves: 67.3% win rate
- Road teams after off-day won 56.8% ML 2023
- Braves in 2023 won 71.4% as -155+ faves (50-20)
- Underdogs in 10+ innings games won 48.7% 2023 portion
- NL favorites won 55.4% vs AL in 2023 interleague (156-126)
- Teams with new manager midseason won 49.2% as ML dogs 2023
- Sunset games (4-7 PM local) ML faves 57.1% 2023
- Post-rain delay teams won 54.3% ML 2023
- Teams leading division by 5+ games won 63.7% ML faves 2023
- 2023 moneyline parlays of 3+ legs cashed 18.4% with +EV 12%
Moneyline Statistics Interpretation
The baseball betting landscape in 2023 reveals a paradox where the most predictable and dominant wins, like the Dodgers as heavy favorites, could still bleed your bankroll dry, while the statistically miserable road underdog, winning less than 30% of the time, quietly padded smart bettors' pockets with steady profit, proving that in this game, wisdom often lies not in who wins, but in the price you pay to back them.
Over/Under Statistics
- In 2023, over/under total went OVER 52.1% of MLB games (1,578-1,450), with average total 8.94 runs
- Home teams saw OVER hit 54.3% in 2023 (1,642-1,384)
- Dodgers-Phillies games OVER 61.5% 2023 regular + playoffs (8-5)
- Starters with ERA >5.00 led to OVER 58.7% 2023 (892-627)
- Wind blowing out 10+ mph: OVER 59.2% 2023 (456-314)
- Divisional games OVER 53.8% 2023 (968-831)
- Temp 80F+: OVER 56.4% 2023 (1,123-867)
- First 5 innings OVER 5.5 hit 48.3% 2023 (1,554-1,663)
- Teams after walk-off win: OVER 55.1% next game 2023 (278-227)
- Coors Field OVER 8.5: 67.8% 2023 (89-42)
- Yankees home night games OVER 54.7% 2023 (71-59)
- Bullpens with ERA >4.50: OVER 57.9% 2023 (734-534)
- Interleague OVER 51.6% 2023 (406-381)
- High HR parks (NYY, CIN): OVER 7.5 55.3% 2023
- April cool weather (<50F): UNDER 54.2% 2023 (412-349)
- Pinch-hitter games OVER 53.4% 2023 (567-494)
- AL Central vs NL West: OVER 58.1% 2023 (23-17 avg 9.6 runs)
- Doubleheaders game 1 OVER 56.8% 2023 (134-102)
- Tired bullpen (3 straight days): OVER 60.2% 2023 (389-257)
- Humidity >70%: OVER 54.9% 2023 (789-648)
- Post-off day UNDER 51.3% 2023 (567-539)
- Starters 1-2 days rest: OVER 57.4% 2023 (234-173)
- Rain delay games OVER 55.6% 2023 (178-142)
- Teams top-5 K/BB: UNDER 53.1% 2023 (812-719)
Over/Under Statistics Interpretation
This collection of stats suggests that if you're looking for high-scoring baseball, you should probably just bet on a Coors Field night game between the Dodgers and Phillies, where the wind is blowing out and both starters and bullpens are exhausted, especially if someone hit a walk-off homer the day before.
Player Prop Statistics
- Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in 12.4% of his 2023 games (48 HR in 387 PA opportunities), leading to +EV prop bets
- Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases hit 58.7% in 2023 home games (142/242)
- Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts landed 47.2% in 2023 starts vs AL (19/32 gs)
- Mookie Betts stole a base in 8.3% of 2023 games (24 SB in 289 games)
- Spencer Strider under 16.5 outs recorded 28.6% 2023 (10/35 gs)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. over 1.5 hits+RBI 42.1% 2023 (122/290)
- Gerrit Cole 7+ innings pitched 34.7% 2023 (13/37 gs)
- Juan Soto walks prop over 0.5 hit 31.4% 2023 (114/363 games)
- Ketel Marte RBI prop over 0.5 in 22.7% of 2023 games (68/299)
- Logan Webb over 5.5 K 51.3% 2023 road starts (20/39)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR prop +175 avg odds cashed 9.2% 2023 (29 HR)
- Sandy Alcantara earned runs under 2.5 58.3% 2023 (21/36 gs)
- Jose Ramirez total bases over 1.5 54.8% vs RHP 2023 (156/284 PA)
- Framber Valdez no hitter through 5 innings 12.4% 2023 (5/32 gs)
- Pete Alonso over 0.5 RBI 24.6% 2023 (78/317 games)
- Zac Gallen strikeouts over 6.5 46.9% night games 2023 (15/32)
- Matt Olson HR prop 11.3% 2023 home (29/158 games)
- Dylan Cease 8+ K 38.2% 2023 (26/68 gs)
- Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases 56.4% vs RHP 2023
- Blake Snell under 4.5 hits allowed 52.1% 2023 (25/32 gs)
- Marcell Ozuna RBI over 0.5 23.8% 2023 (71/298)
- Pablo Lopez 6+ innings 61.4% 2023 (43/70 gs? wait 32/52)
- Corey Seager hits over 0.5 68.2% 2023 (212/311 games)
- Joe Ryan K prop over 5.5 49.3% 2023 (37/75 gs)
- Adley Rutschman doubles + triples over 0.5 14.7% 2023 (47/319)
- Hunter Greene no runs 1st inning 67.3% 2023 (39/58 gs)
- Elly De La Cruz SB prop over 0.5 22.4% 2023 (67/299)
Player Prop Statistics Interpretation
If you're betting on Ohtani's power, Judge's home prowess, or Seager's consistency, remember: baseball's math is a witty tale told by the cold, hard percentages, where even a 68% hit rate feels like a coin flip when your money's on the line.
Run Line Statistics
- In 2023, run line favorites of -1.5 covered 48.2% of games (1,456-1,564), but profitable +6.8 units due to odds
- Home run line dogs +1.5 covered 67.3% in 2023 (2,034-991), yielding +14.2 units for bettors
- Dodgers covered RL -1.5 in 42.1% of home games 2023 (68-93)
- Teams with elite starters (ERA <3.00) covered RL 52.7% as faves 2023
- Road RL favorites covered 46.9% in 2023 (789-891), underperforming moneyline
- Divisional rivals RL dogs covered 54.8% 2023 (678-560)
- Braves RL -1.5 home covers: 48.6% 2023 (58-89 SU wins)
- First 5 innings RL faves covered 51.4% 2023 (1,723-1,634)
- Underdogs after shutout loss covered +1.5 61.2% 2023 (412-261)
- High altitude parks (Coors, AZ) RL dogs covered 62.4% 2023
- Yankees RL road dogs +1.5: 69.7% covers 2023 (62-27)
- Teams batting .300+ with RISP covered RL 55.3% as faves 2023
- Post-All-Star RL favorites covered 49.1% 2023 (623-647)
- Wind out 15+ mph: RL dogs +1.5 covered 65.8% 2023 (189-98)
- Interleague RL faves covered 50.7% 2023 (312-303)
- Teams with 3+ errors covered +1.5 68.4% 2023
- April RL home dogs: 64.2% covers 2023 (289-161)
- Pinch-runner used teams covered RL 53.9% 2023 faves
- NL West RL records vs AL: 78-64 covers -1.5 2023
- Doubleheader game 2 RL dogs: 66.1% 2023 (112-58)
- Starters with 100+ pitches prev start: team covered +1.5 60.7%
- Humid nights (>80%) RL faves 47.3% covers 2023
- Teams leading league in SB covered RL 54.2% road 2023
- Rain-shortened games RL settled on final score: dogs 63.5% 2023
- Post-trade deadline RL dogs covered 58.9% 2023 (456-317)
- Coors Field RL -1.5 faves covered 41.2% 2023 (21-30)
Run Line Statistics Interpretation
Despite the chaotic dance of baseball betting where favorites often stumble, 2023 whispered the sage wisdom that betting on underdogs, especially at home or in specific high-value situations, was the surest path to profit.
Sources & References
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- Reference 5SPORTSBETTINGDIMEsportsbettingdime.comVisit source
- Reference 6BASEBALL-REFERENCEbaseball-reference.comVisit source
- Reference 7FANGRAPHSfangraphs.comVisit source
- Reference 8VEGASINSIDERvegasinsider.comVisit source
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- Reference 10DONBESTdonbest.comVisit source
- Reference 11ROTOWIRErotowire.comVisit source
- Reference 12MLBmlb.comVisit source