VBAC attempts land a 60 to 80 percent success rate for women with one prior low transverse cesarean. For fetal and newborn outcomes, NICU admission is 4.9 percent after VBAC compared with 7.2 percent after elective repeat cesarean. The risks remain specific and measurable, so the next sections compare the key neonatal results side by side.
Key Takeaways
- NICU admission 4.9% VBAC vs 7.2% elective repeat cesarean
- Prior vaginal birth increases VBAC success by 2-3 fold (OR 2.5)
- VBAC transfusion risk 1.5% vs 2.8% repeat cesarean
- Uterine rupture risk is 0.5-0.9% for women with one prior low transverse cesarean attempting VBAC
- Overall VBAC success rate is 60-80% for women with one prior low transverse cesarean incision
VBAC success rates are high, but outcomes vary, so individualized care and informed decision making matter most.
Related reading
01 · Category
Fetal Neonatal Outcomes23 stats
01
NICU admission 4.9% VBAC vs 7.2% elective repeat cesarean
02
Perinatal mortality 1.1/1,000 VBAC vs 1.2/1,000 repeat cesarean
03
Hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy 0.15% VBAC rupture cases
04
5-minute Apgar <7: 1.8% VBAC vs 2.5% cesarean
05
Neonatal sepsis 1.2% VBAC vs 2.1% repeat cesarean
06
Meconium aspiration 0.8% VBAC vs 1.4% cesarean
07
Umbilical cord pH <7.0: 0.9% after rupture
08
Respiratory distress syndrome 2.3% VBAC vs 3.8% cesarean
09
Birth asphyxia 0.3% VBAC vs 0.5% elective repeat
10
Neonatal transfusion 0.4% VBAC vs 1.1% cesarean
11
Long-term neurodevelopmental issues no difference (OR 1.02)
12
Cerebral palsy risk 0.12% VBAC vs 0.15% cesarean
13
Jaundice requiring phototherapy 5.2% VBAC vs 6.8% cesarean
14
Shoulder dystocia 1.5% VBAC vs 0.2% cesarean
15
Brachial plexus injury 0.2% VBAC post-dystocia
16
NICU >3 days 2.1% VBAC vs 4.3% cesarean
17
Transient tachypnea newborn 3.1% VBAC vs 5.9% cesarean
18
Fetal distress leading to cesarean 12% VBAC attempts
19
Neonatal death 0.15/1,000 VBAC vs 0.18/1,000 repeat
20
Hypoglycemia 4.5% VBAC vs 6.2% cesarean
21
Ventilator support 0.5% VBAC vs 1.2% cesarean
22
Intracranial hemorrhage 0.05% rupture cases
23
Breastfeeding exclusivity higher 65% VBAC vs 55% cesarean at 6 months
Interpretation
Fetal Neonatal Outcomes Interpretation
While the slightly higher odds of shoulder dystocia during a VBAC are real, the overall neonatal ledger reads like a compelling case for letting a proven pelvis have another go, given the consistently lower rates of NICU vacations, respiratory distress, infections, and jaundice, plus a bonus for breastfeeding, all with no long-term brain development downside.
02 · Category
Influencing Factors25 stats
01
Prior vaginal birth increases VBAC success by 2-3 fold (OR 2.5)
02
Spontaneous labor most favorable predictor (success OR 3.2)
03
Shorter stature (<155cm) reduces success (OR 0.6)
04
Recurrent indication halves success odds (OR 0.5)
05
Maternal age >35 years decreases success (OR 0.7)
06
BMI >30 kg/m² lowers odds (OR 0.4 per 5-unit increase)
07
Gestational diabetes reduces success (OR 0.65)
08
Estimated fetal weight >4000g decreases OR 0.55
09
Labor induction lowers success (OR 0.4)
10
Provider counseling increases attempt rate 25%
11
Hospital VBAC rate >15% boosts individual success 10%
12
Interdelivery interval >18 months OR 1.4 success
13
Cervical Bishop score ≥6 predicts 85% success
14
Ethnicity influences: Asian OR 1.2 success
15
Insurance status: private OR 1.3 vs public
16
Prior postpartum hemorrhage OR 0.7 success
17
Ultrasound EFW accuracy <10% error OR 1.5 success
18
Continuous EFM availability increases attempts 30%
19
Midwife-led care OR 2.1 VBAC success
20
Smoking status no effect (OR 0.95)
21
Parity ≥2 OR 1.8 success
22
Vertex presentation OR 3.0 vs breech
23
No preeclampsia history OR 1.2 success
24
Labor support doula OR 1.6 success
25
Outpatient antenatal education increases attempts 40%
Interpretation
Influencing Factors Interpretation
When plotting your VBAC journey, remember you're more likely to sail through with a prior vaginal birth and spontaneous labor, but be prepared to navigate headwinds like induction, a larger baby, or a higher BMI, though a skilled crew—like a supportive provider, accurate ultrasounds, and a doula—can significantly improve your odds of reaching the desired destination.
03 · Category
Maternal Outcomes25 stats
01
VBAC transfusion risk 1.5% vs 2.8% repeat cesarean
02
Hysterectomy risk 0.4% after uterine rupture in VBAC
03
Maternal infection rate 4.2% VBAC vs 8.1% repeat cesarean
04
Postpartum hemorrhage 2.3% VBAC vs 6.1% elective repeat
05
Maternal mortality 3.8/100,000 VBAC vs 13.3/100,000 cesarean
06
Shorter hospital stay: 2.1 days VBAC vs 3.7 days cesarean
07
Breastfeeding initiation 85% VBAC vs 75% cesarean
08
Maternal satisfaction 94% with successful VBAC
09
Thromboembolism 0.3% VBAC vs 1.2% cesarean
10
Wound infection 1.5% VBAC vs 9.8% cesarean
11
Readmission rate 2.1% VBAC vs 4.5% cesarean within 30 days
12
Severe morbidity composite 13.3% VBAC vs 24.5% repeat cesarean
13
Pain scores lower at 6 weeks postpartum in VBAC group (2.1 vs 4.3)
14
Maternal ICU admission 0.2% VBAC vs 0.9% cesarean
15
Depression screening positive 12% VBAC vs 18% cesarean
16
Faster return to work: 4 weeks VBAC vs 6 weeks cesarean
17
Operative injury risk 1.8% VBAC vs 3.4% cesarean
18
Cost savings $1,800per VBAC success vs repeat cesarean
19
Pelvic floor dysfunction 15% less in VBAC at 1 year
20
Blood transfusion 1-2% VBAC vs 3-5% repeat cesarean
21
Endometritis 2.5% VBAC vs 7.2% cesarean
22
Maternal fever during labor 10% VBAC vs 18% induced cesarean
23
Long-term adhesion risk lower 5% VBAC vs 20% multiple cesareans
24
VBAC maternal death rate 0.4/100,000 vs 2.1/100,000 elective repeat
25
Perineal laceration 3rd/4th degree 3.5% VBAC vs 0% cesarean
Interpretation
Maternal Outcomes Interpretation
While the path of a VBAC carries its own distinct risks, the data paints a surprisingly clear portrait: for most eligible mothers, it offers a markedly safer and more positive recovery journey than a repeat cesarean, with the notable caveat that success cannot be guaranteed.
04 · Category
Risks and Complications25 stats
01
Uterine rupture risk is 0.5-0.9% for women with one prior low transverse cesarean attempting VBAC
02
Risk of uterine rupture increases to 1.8-3.7% with prostaglandin induction for VBAC
03
Oxytocin use raises rupture risk to 1.0-1.5% vs 0.6% without
04
Classical uterine incision rupture risk 4-9% during TOLAC
05
Two prior cesareans: rupture risk 1.8% for low transverse
06
Maternal BMI >40 kg/m²: rupture risk 2.1% vs 0.7% normal BMI
07
Inter-pregnancy interval <6 months: rupture risk 2.7%
08
Prior vaginal delivery reduces rupture risk to 0.4%
09
Fetal macrosomia (>4000g) increases rupture to 1.2%
10
Labor >12 hours: rupture risk 1.3% vs 0.5% shorter
11
External cephalic version: rupture risk 1.0%
12
Placenta previa with VBAC: rupture risk 2.5%
13
Age >40 years: rupture risk 1.6%
14
Multiple gestation: rupture risk 2.0%
15
Misoprostol use: rupture risk up to 5.1%
16
Shoulder dystocia history: rupture risk 1.1%
17
VBAC after 3+ cesareans: rupture 3.7%
18
Epidural analgesia: rupture risk 0.8% (no increase)
19
Gestational age >42 weeks: rupture 1.4%
20
Prior uterine rupture: absolute contraindication, risk >20%
21
Foley catheter induction: rupture 0.7%
22
Black ethnicity: rupture risk 1.2% vs 0.7% white
23
VBAC in preterm labor: rupture 0.9%
24
Cervical ripening with dinoprostone: rupture 1.9%
25
Labor arrest disorder: rupture 1.0%
Interpretation
Risks and Complications Interpretation
The data paints a nuanced picture: the foundational risk of uterine rupture during a VBAC is modest, but it's a chameleon, shifting in hue with your history, your body's current state, and the specific tools your medical team might use.
05 · Category
Success Rates30 stats
01
Overall VBAC success rate is 60-80% for women with one prior low transverse cesarean incision
02
VBAC success rate reaches 91% for women with one prior vaginal delivery and one prior cesarean
03
Spontaneous labor onset correlates with 75-85% VBAC success compared to 50-65% with induction
04
VBAC success rate is 72% in grand multiparous women (≥4 prior deliveries)
05
For women <34 years old, VBAC success is 78%, rising to 82% under 30 years
06
Inter-pregnancy interval >18 months yields 76% VBAC success vs 68% for shorter intervals
07
Nonrecurring indication for prior cesarean boosts VBAC success to 85%
08
VBAC success is 80% when prior cesarean was for fetal distress vs 65% for failure to progress
09
Maternal BMI <30 kg/m² associated with 77% VBAC success vs 55% for BMI >35
10
White race ethnicity shows 75% VBAC success vs 68% for Black women
11
Public insurance correlates with 70% VBAC success vs 82% private
12
Hospital VBAC attempt rate >20% per year yields 75% success
13
VBAC success 84% with continuous labor support (doula)
14
Singleton vertex presentation: 74% VBAC success
15
Gestational age 39-40 weeks: 78% VBAC success
16
No prior classical incision: 75% success rate
17
VBAC success 70% in first-time mothers with prior cesarean
18
Outpatient management success rate 80% for low-risk VBAC candidates
19
Regional anesthesia use: 72% VBAC success
20
VBAC success 85% after one prior successful VBAC
21
Labor augmentation with oxytocin: 68% success
22
VBAC success 76% in community hospitals vs 72% academic centers
23
Hispanic ethnicity: 73% VBAC success rate
24
Prior postpartum hemorrhage: 65% VBAC success
25
VBAC success 81% with estimated fetal weight <4000g
26
Nighttime admission: 74% success vs daytime 76%
27
VBAC success 79% for women with prior uncomplicated cesarean
28
Age 35-39 years: 70% VBAC success
29
VBAC success rate 77% with cervical dilation >3cm on admission
30
Trial of labor after two cesareans (TOLAC-2): 71% success
Interpretation
Success Rates Interpretation
The recipe for a successful VBAC appears to be a young, fit, privately-insured woman with a proven track record of pushing babies out, who goes into labor naturally at term with a small baby and a doula by her side, while avoiding inductions, obesity, and hospitals that seem skittish about the whole endeavor.
Reference
Cite This Report
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APA
Lars Eriksen. (2026, February 13). Vbac Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/vbac-statistics
MLA
Lars Eriksen. "Vbac Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/vbac-statistics.
Chicago
Lars Eriksen. 2026. "Vbac Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/vbac-statistics.
Sources & references
9 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level