Key Takeaways
- The average applied MFN tariff rate for the US in 2022 was 3.3%
- US imposed 25% tariff on steel imports from most countries in 2018 under Section 232
- 10% additional tariff on aluminum imports starting March 2018, covering $16.6 billion in imports
- US imports under Section 301 tariffs totaled $380 billion annually pre-deal
- Steel imports dropped 27% in 2018 after 25% tariff imposition
- Aluminum imports fell 10% post-10% tariff in 2018
- Tariff revenue collected $89 billion from 2018-2022 on all new tariffs
- Section 301 tariffs generated $80 billion revenue by 2023
- Steel and aluminum tariffs yielded $6.3 billion from 2018-2021
- Steel industry added 3,200 jobs post-tariffs 2018-2019
- Overall manufacturing jobs unchanged, lost 75,000 from retaliation
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% due to tariffs 2018-2021
- Aluminum employment increased 1.5% in primary production 2018-2020
- Washing machine US production up 10-15% after tariffs
- Solar module manufacturing capacity tripled to 10 GW by 2020
US tariffs stats cover rates, trade, jobs, revenue, and impacts.
Economic Impacts
- Steel industry added 3,200 jobs post-tariffs 2018-2019
- Overall manufacturing jobs unchanged, lost 75,000 from retaliation
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% due to tariffs 2018-2021
- US GDP reduced 0.2% annually from trade war
- Household costs increased $1,277 per year from tariffs
- Inflation up 0.2-0.4 percentage points from steel/aluminum tariffs
- Farm income dropped 20% 2018-2019 due to export losses
- Retaliatory tariffs cost US exporters $27 billion/year
- Washing machine prices up 12% post-tariff
- Solar installation prices fell despite tariffs due to oversupply
- Trade diversion benefit $7.2 billion to non-China suppliers
- Unemployment in import-competing sectors stable
- Real wages down 1.4% for workers without college degree
- Stock market reaction: S&P down 6% on tariff announcements
- Investment fell 0.7% due to uncertainty
- Total economic cost $316 billion including deadweight loss
- Productivity growth slowed 0.3% from trade disruptions
- Regional effects: Midwest manufacturing down 2%
- Long-run GDP loss 0.5% from permanent tariffs
- Net job gain 1,800 in steel after costs
- Soybean prices down 20% for US farmers 2018-2019
- Apparel prices up 1.5% from China tariffs
- Steel using industries lost 75,000 jobs, net loss
Economic Impacts Interpretation
Industry Impacts
- Aluminum employment increased 1.5% in primary production 2018-2020
- Washing machine US production up 10-15% after tariffs
- Solar module manufacturing capacity tripled to 10 GW by 2020
- Auto industry costs up $3 billion from steel tariffs
- Construction sector input costs rose 5% post-steel tariffs
- Chemical industry faced $1.2 billion higher costs from aluminum tariffs
- Appliance makers added $1.5-2 billion costs passed to consumers
- Beer industry aluminum can costs up 15-20%
- Agriculture: corn exports down 500,000 tons to China
- Pork producers lost $4 billion export market share
- Whiskey distilleries hit by 25% EU tariffs, exports down 20%
- Harley-Davidson relocated production to avoid EU tariffs
- Semiconductor supply chain disruptions cost $10 billion
- Furniture imports shifted, US production up 2%
- Tire industry faced higher steel cord costs, up 10%
- Dairy TRQ underfill led to stable US prices
- Aerospace: Boeing orders affected by China retaliation
- Footwear prices up 0.5%, limited reshoring
- Machinery sector input costs +4%
- Toys imports from China down 25%, shifted to Vietnam
- Pharmaceuticals exemptions preserved supply, no volume change
- Steel using manufacturing output down 1.1% 2018-2019
Industry Impacts Interpretation
Revenue Impacts
- Tariff revenue collected $89 billion from 2018-2022 on all new tariffs
- Section 301 tariffs generated $80 billion revenue by 2023
- Steel and aluminum tariffs yielded $6.3 billion from 2018-2021
- Washing machine tariffs raised $1.5 billion over 2018-2022
- Average annual tariff revenue increase $79 billion 2018-2019
- Customs duties receipts $100 billion in FY2022, up from $34 billion pre-trade war
- Chinese tariffs paid by US importers $49 billion in 2019 alone
- Total trade war tariffs revenue $160 billion cumulative by 2023 estimate
- Section 232 duties $1.4 billion annually post-exemptions
- Solar tariffs revenue $400 million in first year
- FY2023 customs duties $88 billion, 2% of federal revenue
- Tariff exclusions processed for 59,000 requests, saving $19 billion
- Net revenue after exclusions $70 billion for China tariffs
- Duties as % of imports rose from 1.4% to 2.8% 2017-2020
- Steel tariffs revenue offset by quota limits later
- Agricultural bailout payments $28 billion to offset tariff losses, net fiscal cost
- Total federal tariff revenue peaked at $80 billion FY2019
- Post-Phase One, revenue stabilized at $50 billion/year
- Duties funded 10% of border wall construction indirectly
- 2024 tariff hikes projected $100 billion additional revenue
- Effective revenue per tariffed dollar 12 cents after pass-through
Revenue Impacts Interpretation
Tariff Rates
- The average applied MFN tariff rate for the US in 2022 was 3.3%
- US imposed 25% tariff on steel imports from most countries in 2018 under Section 232
- 10% additional tariff on aluminum imports starting March 2018, covering $16.6 billion in imports
- Section 301 tariffs on $34 billion Chinese goods at 25% effective July 2018
- US average tariff rate on industrial products is 2.6% as of 2023
- 7.5% tariff on washing machines imposed January 2018
- Tariffs on solar panels at 30% declining to 15% over 4 years from 2018
- Average US tariff on agricultural products 4.8% in 2021
- 25% tariff on $200 billion List 3 Chinese goods from May 2019
- 15% tariff on $300 billion List 4A Chinese goods from September 2019, later reduced to 7.5%
- US MFN tariff on passenger vehicles 2.5%
- 25% tariff on light trucks (chicken tax) since 1964
- Average tariff on textiles and apparel 8.6% in US
- 50% retaliatory tariff by India on 28 US products in 2019, but US side 2.4% average
- US tariff on ethanol imports 2.5% plus 54 cents/gallon specific duty
- Post-Phase One deal, 7.5% on List 4B avoided
- US average bound tariff rate 3.4% under WTO
- 25% Section 232 tariff on steel derivatives like nails
- 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles proposed in 2024
- Triple-digit tariffs on Chinese semiconductors up to 50% in 2024
- 25% tariff on steel from Turkey lifted in 2019 but reapplied variably
- US dairy tariff rate quota fill rate 102% in 2022, effective high rates
- 20-50% tariffs on Chinese medical goods during COVID adjusted
- Effective US tariff rate rose to 19.3% on Chinese imports by 2020
Tariff Rates Interpretation
Trade Volume
- US imports under Section 301 tariffs totaled $380 billion annually pre-deal
- Steel imports dropped 27% in 2018 after 25% tariff imposition
- Aluminum imports fell 10% post-10% tariff in 2018
- Chinese goods imports subject to tariffs: $450 billion cumulative by 2023
- US exports to China declined 11.3% in 2019 due to retaliation
- Total US imports from China $427 billion in 2022, 16% of total imports
- Steel imports from Canada exempted, 1.4 million tons in 2022
- Washing machine imports decreased 12% after safeguard tariffs
- Solar panel imports shifted from China to Vietnam/SE Asia, up 300% 2018-2020
- US agricultural exports to China fell $27 billion 2018-2019
- Total merchandise trade deficit with China $355 billion in 2022
- Mexico steel imports stable at 5.5 million tons post-USMCA
- EU retaliatory tariffs affected $3 billion US exports in 2018
- US LNG exports to China disrupted, down 70% peak to trough 2018-2019
- Total Section 232 steel tariffs covered $48 billion imports initially
- Import value of tariffed Chinese apparel $20 billion annually
- Auto parts imports under 2.5% tariff $200 billion yearly
- Peanut butter imports hit by 131.8% TRQ over-quota tariff, volume low
- Total US tariffed imports $550 billion peak in trade war
- Canada dairy imports under USMCA quotas 50,000 tons cheese
- Brazil soybean exports to China up 25% displacing US volume
- US crude oil exports to China volatile, $10 billion affected
- Electronics imports from China $150 billion under 25% tariffs
- Total bilateral trade US-China $690 billion in 2022 despite tariffs
Trade Volume Interpretation
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