After a precipitous 35% plunge in 2023, the U.S. mortgage industry is navigating a new landscape defined by higher rates, shifting market shares, and a renewed focus on purchase loans, as revealed by a deep dive into last year’s pivotal data.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, total US residential mortgage originations were $1.68 trillion, a 35% decline from $2.59 trillion in 2022.
- Purchase mortgage originations in Q4 2023 totaled $392 billion, up 7% from Q3 2023.
- Refinance originations dropped to $140 billion in Q4 2023, representing only 26% of total originations.
- The average mortgage origination fee was 1.02% of loan amount in Q4 2023.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.81% in 2023, up from 5.34% in 2022.
- 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.18% in 2023.
- Serious delinquency rate for all mortgages was 0.87% in Q4 2023.
- FHA delinquency rate stood at 10.38% in Q4 2023.
- VA delinquency rate was 4.28% as of Q4 2023.
- National median home price rose 5.3% YoY to $396,800 in Q4 2023.
- Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased 5.1% YoY in Dec 2023.
- Affordability index fell to 98.1 in Q4 2023, lowest since 2007.
- United Wholesale Mortgage held 8.5% origination market share in 2023.
- Rocket Mortgage captured 6.2% of total originations in 2023.
- LoanDepot originated $85 billion, 5.1% share in 2023.
The US mortgage market sharply contracted in 2023 amid rising interest rates and low affordability.
Delinquency and Default
1Serious delinquency rate for all mortgages was 0.87% in Q4 2023.
Verified2FHA delinquency rate stood at 10.38% in Q4 2023.
Verified3VA delinquency rate was 4.28% as of Q4 2023.
Verified4Conventional delinquency rate dropped to 2.45% in Q4 2023.
Directional5Foreclosure starts increased 10% YoY to 0.20% in Q4 2023.
Single source6Serious delinquency (90+ days) for FHA was 4.12% in Q4 2023.
Verified7Overall foreclosure inventory rate was 0.30% in Q1 2024.
Verified8Subprime delinquency rate remained low at 3.5% in 2023.
Verified9Prepayment rates fell to 5.2% CPR in Q4 2023.
Directional10Bankruptcy filings impacting mortgages rose 15% in 2023.
Single source11Forbearance exits reached 99% resolution rate by end-2023.
Verified12New foreclosure starts were 44,000 in Q4 2023.
Verified13Delinquency rate for prime jumbo loans was 0.25% in 2023.
Verified14FHA seriously delinquent loans totaled 380,000 in Q4 2023.
Directional15Overall mortgage default rate was 1.2% in 2023.
Single source16Prepayment speed index dropped 20% YoY in 2023.
Verified17Loss severity on foreclosed loans averaged 28% in 2023.
Verified18GSE delinquency rate was 0.92% in Q4 2023.
Verified19Non-agency RMBS delinquency was 5.8% in 2023.
Directional20Modification volume for delinquent loans was 120,000 in 2023.
Single source21Early delinquency (30-59 days) rate was 2.8% in Q4 2023.
Verified22Foreclosure sales totaled 25,000 properties in Q4 2023.
Verified23Delinquency transition rates fell to historic lows in 2023.
Verified24Manufactured home delinquency was 7.5% in 2023.
Directional25Investor loan delinquency held at 1.1% in Q4 2023.
Single source26Cure rate for 60+ day delinquents was 45% in 2023.
VerifiedDelinquency and Default Interpretation
The mortgage market appears remarkably healthy overall, with its stubborn 0.87% serious delinquency rate proving resilient, yet it's nursing a very specific and serious headache in the FHA corner where a 10.38% delinquency rate suggests a segment of borrowers is struggling profoundly despite the broader stability.
Home Prices and Affordability
1National median home price rose 5.3% YoY to $396,800 in Q4 2023.
Verified2Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased 5.1% YoY in Dec 2023.
Verified3Affordability index fell to 98.1 in Q4 2023, lowest since 2007.
Verified4Housing affordability dropped 16% YoY in Q1 2024.
Directional5Median sales price for existing homes was $382,200 in 2023.
Single source6New home median price reached $417,700 in 2023.
Verified7Home price-to-income ratio hit 5.5x in 2023.
Verified8Monthly mortgage payment for median home rose 10% to $2,118 in 2023.
Verified9Inventory of homes for sale increased 15% to 1.07 million in Q1 2024.
Directional10Months' supply of homes rose to 3.6 months in Q1 2024.
Single source11Price per square foot averaged $205 in Q4 2023.
Verified12First-time buyer affordability index was 65.2 in 2023.
Verified13Share of homes sold above asking price fell to 29% in 2023.
Verified14Pending Home Sales Index dropped 4.9% YoY in Jan 2024.
Directional15Repeat buyer median home price was $425,000 in 2023.
Single source16Price growth slowed to 3.9% YoY in Midwest Q4 2023.
Verified17Western region home prices up 6.2% YoY to $550,000 median.
Verified18Renter median income needed for homeownership rose to $102,000 in 2023.
Verified1930% of income threshold for affordability hit by 75% of counties in 2023.
Directional20Home price appreciation forecast for 2024 is 3.5%.
Single source21Median listing price was $425,000 in March 2024.
Verified22Price cuts on listings reached 41% in early 2024.
Verified23Luxury home prices grew 7.1% YoY in Q4 2023.
Verified24Starter home median price surged 5.8% to $350,000 in 2023.
Directional25Affordability-adjusted price index fell 2% in 2023.
Single sourceHome Prices and Affordability Interpretation
Despite the welcome increase in inventory and price cuts suggesting a cooling market, the relentless rise in home prices has decisively outpaced incomes, pushing affordability to its most crushing level since the eve of the last housing crisis.
Interest Rates
1The average mortgage origination fee was 1.02% of loan amount in Q4 2023.
Verified230-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.81% in 2023, up from 5.34% in 2022.
Verified315-year fixed rate averaged 6.18% in 2023.
Verified45/1 ARM rates hit 6.45% average in Q4 2023.
Directional5Mortgage rates peaked at 7.79% for 30-year fixed on Oct 23, 2023.
Single source6Effective mortgage rate spread over 10-year Treasury was 2.85% in 2023.
Verified7Discount points averaged 0.67 per loan in Q4 2023.
Verified8Jumbo 30-year rates averaged 6.95% in 2023.
Verified9FHA 30-year rates were 6.85% average in 2023.
Directional10VA 30-year rates averaged 6.45% in 2023.
Single source11Conforming loan limits rose to $766,550 in 2024 from $726,200 in 2023.
Verified12ARM share of applications reached 12% in January 2024.
Verified137/1 ARM rates averaged 6.60% in Q1 2024.
Verified14Mortgage rate lock volume increased 25% in Q4 2023 as rates stabilized.
Directional15Par rates for 30-year fixed fell to 6.75% by March 2024.
Single source16Credit spread for MBS tightened to 140 bps in early 2024.
Verified17Average lender yield on 30-year loans was 6.92% in Q4 2023.
Verified18Rate buydown usage hit 40% of loans in Q4 2023.
Verified1930-year FRM dipped to 6.69% in week ending March 28, 2024.
Directional20Mortgage APR averaged 7.02% for 30-year in 2023.
Single source21High-balance loan rates were 0.25% higher than conforming in 2023.
Verified22Non-QM rates averaged 8.5% in 2023.
Verified23Reverse mortgage rates averaged 6.75% for HECM in 2023.
Verified24Overall mortgage rate forecast for 2024 end is 6.2%.
Directional2510-year Treasury yield averaged 4.0% in 2023, influencing rates.
Single sourceInterest Rates Interpretation
The industry held its breath as rates soared above 7%, cleverly kept lenders profitable through generous fees and rampant rate buydowns, and now cautiously bets on a gentle descent back toward sanity by year's end.
Lender Market Share
1United Wholesale Mortgage held 8.5% origination market share in 2023.
Verified2Rocket Mortgage captured 6.2% of total originations in 2023.
Verified3LoanDepot originated $85 billion, 5.1% share in 2023.
Verified4Chase Bank mortgage volume was $62 billion, 3.7% share.
Directional5PennyMac Corp led IMBs with $140 billion in 2023.
Single source6Wells Fargo originated $54 billion, down 20% YoY.
Verified7Bank of America share was 2.8% at $47 billion volume.
Verified8Fairway Independent had 1.9% share with $32 billion.
Verified9Guild Mortgage volume reached $28 billion, 1.7% share.
Directional10Navy Federal Credit Union grew to $25 billion, 1.5% share.
Single source11Mr. Cooper serviced $11.2 trillion UPB end-2023.
Verified12Ocwen servicing portfolio was $87 billion UPB.
Verified13PHH Mortgage (Coventry) had 1.2% origination share.
Verified14Top 10 lenders controlled 45% of origination market in 2023.
Directional15Retail channel share fell to 22% in 2023.
Single source16Wholesale lenders dominated with 55% share.
Verified17Credit unions captured 7% origination share in 2023.
Verified18Non-bank lenders originated 75% of volume in 2023.
Verified19Flagstar Bank volume was $40 billion, 2.4% share.
Directional20Newrez LLC originated $38 billion.
Single source21Caliber Home Loans had $35 billion volume.
Verified22Top servicer SLM held 10% MSR market share end-2023.
VerifiedLender Market Share Interpretation
The mortgage market in 2023 was a story of wholesale non-bank dominance, where a few giants like United Wholesale and Rocket jostled for the top spot while traditional banks watched their retail influence steadily erode.
Originations and Volume
1In 2023, total US residential mortgage originations were $1.68 trillion, a 35% decline from $2.59 trillion in 2022.
Verified2Purchase mortgage originations in Q4 2023 totaled $392 billion, up 7% from Q3 2023.
Verified3Refinance originations dropped to $140 billion in Q4 2023, representing only 26% of total originations.
Verified4FHA loan originations in 2023 reached 890,000 units, accounting for 12% of all originations.
Directional5VA mortgage originations hit 413,000 in FY2023, with a total volume of $142 billion.
Single source6Conventional conforming originations dominated with 78% market share in 2023 at $1.31 trillion.
Verified7Jumbo mortgage originations fell 42% YoY in 2023 to $285 billion.
Verified8Total mortgage applications surged 49% in January 2024 compared to December 2023.
Verified9In 2022, mortgage originations peaked at $4.1 trillion, the highest since 2005.
Directional10Q1 2024 originations volume was $452 billion, with purchase loans at 81% share.
Single source11Multifamily mortgage originations increased 12% in 2023 to $335 billion.
Verified12Ginnie Mae-guaranteed originations were $678 billion in 2023, down 28% YoY.
Verified13Non-QM originations grew 15% in 2023 to $45 billion.
Verified14Reverse mortgage originations reached 64,000 in 2023, up 5% YoY.
Directional15USDA loan originations totaled 38,000 in FY2023, with $6.5 billion volume.
Single source162023 saw 1.65 million single-family mortgage originations for purchases.
Verified17Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) originations rose to 10% of total in Q4 2023.
Verified18Fixed-rate originations comprised 90% of 2023 volume at $1.51 trillion.
Verified19Cash-out refinance originations were $98 billion in 2023, down 60% YoY.
Directional20Rate-term refinance originations plummeted to $42 billion in 2023.
Single source21First-time buyer originations accounted for 28% of purchases in 2023.
Verified22Investor purchase originations rose to 19% of total purchases in 2023.
Verified23Total outstanding mortgage debt reached $12.25 trillion in Q4 2023.
Verified24New mortgage debt issuance was $1.72 trillion in 2023.
Directional25GSE (Fannie/Freddie) share of originations was 52% in 2023.
Single source26Portfolio lender originations held 15% market share in 2023.
Verified27Credit union mortgage originations grew 8% to $112 billion in 2023.
Verified28Independent mortgage bank originations volume fell 40% in 2023.
Verified29Wholesale channel originations were 62% of total in Q4 2023.
Directional30Correspondent channel captured 38% of originations in 2023.
Single sourceOriginations and Volume Interpretation
While the mortgage industry's overall volume took a sobering 35% dive to $1.68 trillion in 2023, the frantic January 2024 application surge and the steady rise of first-time and investor buyers suggest the market isn't drowning, just cautiously learning to swim in a higher-rate environment.
Sources & References
- Reference 1MBAmba.orgVisit source
- Reference 2FREDDIEMACfreddiemac.comVisit source
- Reference 3HUDhud.govVisit source
- Reference 4BENEFITSbenefits.va.govVisit source
- Reference 5FANNIEMAEfanniemae.comVisit source
- Reference 6CORELOGICcorelogic.comVisit source
- Reference 7URBANurban.orgVisit source
- Reference 8BLACKKNIGHTINCblackknightinc.comVisit source
- Reference 9GINNIEMAEginniemae.govVisit source
- Reference 10NATIONALMORTGAGENEWSnationalmortgagenews.comVisit source
- Reference 11NATIONALREVERSEnationalreverse.comVisit source
- Reference 12RDrd.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 13FHFAfhfa.govVisit source
- Reference 14NARnar.realtorVisit source
- Reference 15ATTOMDATAattomdata.comVisit source
- Reference 16FEDERALRESERVEfederalreserve.govVisit source
- Reference 17NCUAncua.govVisit source
- Reference 18INSIDEinside.compasspoint.comVisit source
- Reference 19BANKRATEbankrate.comVisit source
- Reference 20MORTGAGENEWSDAILYmortgagenewsdaily.comVisit source
- Reference 21ELLIE MAEellie Mae.comVisit source
- Reference 22VETERANSUNITEDveteransunited.comVisit source
- Reference 23OPTICALITYopticality.comVisit source
- Reference 24MBSLIVEmbslive.netVisit source
- Reference 25TREASURYtreasury.govVisit source
- Reference 26REVERSEreverse.mortgageVisit source
- Reference 27HOMEhome.treasury.govVisit source
- Reference 28AMERICANBANKRUPTCYINSTITUTEamericanbankruptcyinstitute.orgVisit source
- Reference 29SIFMAsifma.orgVisit source
- Reference 30MFmf.nationstar.comVisit source
- Reference 31SPGLOBALspglobal.comVisit source
- Reference 32CENSUScensus.govVisit source
- Reference 33REDFINredfin.comVisit source
- Reference 34FREDfred.stlouisfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 35REALTORrealtor.comVisit source
- Reference 36TRULIAtrulia.comVisit source
- Reference 37INSIDEMORTGAGEFINANCEinsidemortgagefinance.comVisit source
- Reference 38AMERICANBANKERamericanbanker.comVisit source
- Reference 39SOFIsofi.comVisit source
- Reference 40HOUSINGWIREhousingwire.comVisit source
- Reference 41IRir.mrcooper.comVisit source
- Reference 42OCWENocwen.comVisit source