In the high-stakes drama of the US-China trade war, the numbers tell a story as tangled as the policies themselves—from the $419.2 billion trade deficit in 2018 to 2023 projections, tariffs that soared to 19.3% on US imports and 21.1% on Chinese goods, a 57% shortfall in Phase One purchase targets, impacts like 245,000 lost US jobs and China’s 6.1% GDP slowdown in 2019, and unintended shifts ranging from $100 billion in global supply chain relocation to a 90% drop in US cotton exports to China; in this blog post, we unpack these critical statistics to decode how tariffs, deficits, and cross-border flows have redefined bilateral trade, and what they reveal about the war’s complex, lasting effects.
Key Takeaways
- US trade deficit with China reached $419.2 billion in 2018, up 12.5% from 2017
- US goods imports from China totaled $539.5 billion in 2018
- US goods exports to China fell to $120.3 billion in 2018 from $129.9 billion in 2017
- US imposed tariffs on $380 billion of Chinese imports by 2020
- China retaliated with tariffs on $110 billion of US goods by 2019
- Average US tariff on Chinese goods rose from 3.8% to 19.3% by Feb 2020
- US GDP reduced by 0.3% due to trade war tariffs per Moody's
- 245,000 US jobs lost due to trade war by 2020, Fed study
- US manufacturing employment fell 1.4% (180,000 jobs) 2018-2019
- China's GDP growth slowed to 6.1% in 2019 from 6.6% 2018
- Industrial production growth fell to 5.7% YoY in 2019
- Chinese exports declined 4.4% in 2019, first drop since 2016
- Global GDP loss of 0.5% from trade war per IMF 2019
- World trade volume growth slowed to 0.9% in 2019 from 3.6% 2018
- EU GDP reduced 0.1% from US-China tariffs spillover
US-China trade war stats: deficits, tariffs, impacts.
China Economic Impacts
- China's GDP growth slowed to 6.1% in 2019 from 6.6% 2018
- Industrial production growth fell to 5.7% YoY in 2019
- Chinese exports declined 4.4% in 2019, first drop since 2016
- Manufacturing PMI averaged 49.8 in 2019, contraction territory
- Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 5.4% in 2019
- Retail sales growth dropped to 8.0% in 2019 from 9.0%
- 5.1 million manufacturing jobs lost 2018-2020 est.
- Trade war reduced China's export growth by 2.3 ppt, IMF
- RMB depreciated 5.5% vs USD in 2018 amid tariffs
- Producer prices deflated -0.3% avg 2019
- Foreign direct investment inflows fell 8% to $138B in 2019
- Stock market (Shanghai Composite) down 25% peak-to-trough 2018
- Corporate debt distress rose, NPL ratio up to 1.9% in banks 2019
- Consumer confidence index fell to 122.2 in Dec 2019 low
- Import growth from non-US sources up 10% to diversify
- Fiscal stimulus increased to 2.8% of GDP in 2020 response
- Youth unemployment peaked at 6.3% in mid-2019
- Trade surplus with world hit record $595B in 2022 despite war
- Electronics exports to US down 10% but shifted to ASEAN
- Global supply chains relocated $100B+ FDI from China 2019-2022
- US ag imports from China fell 50% 2018-2020
- Pork imports surged 70% as US tariffs hit suppliers
China Economic Impacts Interpretation
The US-China trade war left China’s economy in a tight squeeze between 2018 and 2020, with GDP growth cooling to 6.1% (down from 6.6%), exports slipping 4.4% (the first drop since 2016), industrial production and retail sales slowing, 5.1 million manufacturing jobs lost, the yuan weakening 5.5%, producer prices deflating, foreign direct investment falling 8%, the stock market dropping 25% peak-to-trough, corporate debt rising, consumer confidence dipping to a 2019 low, youth unemployment peaking at 6.3%, and US agricultural imports plummeting 50%—though there were faint signs of adaptation, like diversifying imports from non-US sources by 10%, rolling out 2.8% of GDP in fiscal stimulus in 2020, and even hitting a record trade surplus of $595 billion in 2022, while global supply chains lured over $100 billion in FDI out and electronics exports to the US shifted to ASEAN, though pork imports surged 70% to fill the gap left by hit suppliers.
Global and Sectoral Effects
- Global GDP loss of 0.5% from trade war per IMF 2019
- World trade volume growth slowed to 0.9% in 2019 from 3.6% 2018
- EU GDP reduced 0.1% from US-China tariffs spillover
- Vietnam exports to US up 35% 2018-2020 as diversion
- Mexico US imports share rose 2.5 ppt post-2018
- Taiwan semiconductor exports boomed 20% to both sides
- Soybean prices global fell 20% in 2018 due to China shift
- Boeing lost $20B orders as China favored Airbus
- Rare earth exports from China restricted, affecting 80% global supply
- Tech sector decoupling: US chip imports from China down 15%
- Apparel imports shifted: Bangladesh up 30% to US 2018-2021
- Steel prices global up 25% post-US tariffs 2018
- EV battery supply chain: China share 70% but US tariffs 25%
- Solar panel prices fell 40% as China overcapacity despite tariffs
- Pharma imports from India to US up 15% bypassing China
- ASEAN FDI inflows doubled to $180B 2018-2022 from China diversion
- WTO dispute cases: 25+ filed by China vs US tariffs
- Aircraft deliveries delayed: China canceled 150 Boeing 737 orders
- Cotton prices volatile, US exports to China down 90% peak
- LNG trade: China diversified to Australia, US share down 50%
Global and Sectoral Effects Interpretation
The US-China trade war wasn’t just a tiff—it clipped global growth by 0.5% (IMF), slowed trade to a crawl (from 3.6% to 0.9% in 2019), forced the EU to lose 0.1% GDP, redirected exports to Vietnam (up 35%), Mexico (up 2.5 ppt), and Taiwan (20% semiconductor surge), tanked soybean prices (20% drop), grounded Boeing’s $20B China orders, tossed China’s 80%-global-supply rare earths into a geopolitical storm, scaled back US chip imports from China (15% down), shifted apparel manufacturing to Bangladesh (30% up), lifted global steel prices (25% jump), tangled China’s 70%-top EV battery supply chain with 25% US tariffs, sent solar panel prices plummeting (40% drop) via China overcapacity, rerouted pharma imports from India to the US (15% up), doubled ASEAN FDI (to $180B), flooded the WTO with 25+ Chinese complaints, nixed 150 Boeing 737s, whiplashed cotton exports (US to China down 90%), and turned China’s LNG reliance into “Australia, anyone?” (US share halved)—all while proving tariffs create messy, unintended winners *and* losers, from farmers to CEOs to global supply chains.
Tariff Measures
- US imposed tariffs on $380 billion of Chinese imports by 2020
- China retaliated with tariffs on $110 billion of US goods by 2019
- Average US tariff on Chinese goods rose from 3.8% to 19.3% by Feb 2020
- China's average tariff on US goods increased to 21.1% in 2019
- Section 301 tariffs covered 66.6% of US imports from China by 2020
- US List 1 tariffs: 25% on $34 billion Chinese goods July 2018
- List 2: 25% on $16 billion effective Aug 2018
- List 3: 10% (later 25%) on $200 billion Sept 2018-Jan 2019
- List 4A: 7.5% on $120 billion Sept 2019
- Exclusions granted for 2,200+ products under Section 301
- China tariffs on US autos raised to 40% in July 2018
- Chinese VAT rebates on US exports suspended for 5,000+ products
- US steel tariffs under Section 232 affected $1.8B Chinese imports
- Aluminum tariffs at 10% on Chinese products from 2018
- Phase One agreement suspended new tariffs in 2020
- Biden retained all Trump-era tariffs on China as of 2023
- Additional 100% tariffs proposed on Chinese EVs in 2024
- Tariffs on semiconductors raised to 50% by 2025 announced 2024
- Cumulative tariff revenue from China tariffs exceeded $80 billion by 2023
- US farmers lost $27 billion in exports due to retaliatory tariffs 2018-2019
- China imposed 25% tariffs on $14 billion US goods in April 2018
Tariff Measures Interpretation
The China-U.S. trade war, from 2018 to 2024, unfolded as a costly, tangled escalation: the U.S. imposed $380 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports (lifting its average rate from 3.8% to 19.3% by 2020, covering 66.6% of such imports via Lists 1-4A) while China retaliated with $110 billion in duties (hitting 21.1% by 2019), including 40% tariffs on autos, a suspension of VAT rebates for 5,000+ U.S. exports, and 25% duties on $14 billion in U.S. goods by 2018; there were also U.S. steel tariffs on $1.8 billion in Chinese imports, 10% aluminum duties, 2,200+ exclusions under Section 301, a paused Phase One agreement in 2020, all Trump-era tariffs retained by Biden in 2023, proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs, and 50% semiconductor tariffs set for 2025, with cumulative tariff revenue exceeding $80 billion by 2023 and U.S. farmers losing $27 billion in exports due to retaliation during 2018-2019—all of it a high-stakes, human-driven clash of economic policy and tangible, costly consequences.
Trade Balance and Volumes
- US trade deficit with China reached $419.2 billion in 2018, up 12.5% from 2017
- US goods imports from China totaled $539.5 billion in 2018
- US goods exports to China fell to $120.3 billion in 2018 from $129.9 billion in 2017
- Bilateral trade volume between US and China was $659.8 billion in 2018
- US-China trade deficit narrowed to $345.6 billion in 2019 due to tariffs
- China's exports to US dropped 12.5% in 2019 to $452.2 billion
- US exports to China declined 11.9% in 2019 amid trade war
- Total US-China goods trade fell 14.6% in 2019 to $558 billion
- Trade deficit with China was $310.8 billion in 2020, down from pre-war levels
- US imports from China decreased 7.3% in 2020 to $435.4 billion
- US exports to China rose 7.9% in 2020 to $125.0 billion despite tensions
- Bilateral trade volume in 2021 reached $657.3 billion, up 19.2% YoY
- US-China trade deficit hit $382.9 billion in 2021
- China's share of US imports fell from 21.6% in 2017 to 18.6% in 2021
- US goods exports to China grew 8.1% to $151.1 billion in 2022
- Imports from China in 2022 were $536.8 billion, up 2.0% YoY
- Trade deficit narrowed to $367.4 billion in 2023 Q1-Q3 average annualized
- Total two-way trade in 2023 projected at $664 billion
- US-China container trade volume fell 20% in early 2019
- Phase One deal aimed to increase Chinese purchases by $200 billion over 2020-2021
- China met only 57% of Phase One purchase commitments by 2021
- US services trade surplus with China was $40.5 billion in 2019
- Cumulative trade deficit reduction of $100 billion+ since 2018 peak
- China's global trade share rose to 14.7% in 2022 despite US war
Trade Balance and Volumes Interpretation
The U.S.-China trade war offered a wild ride for the balance sheet, with the trade deficit leaping 12.5% to $419.2 billion in 2018 (imports at $539.5 billion, exports down to $120.3 billion from $129.9 billion in 2017), zigzagging amid tariffs—narrowing to $310.8 billion in 2020 (below pre-war levels), spiking to $382.9 billion in 2021, and edging lower in 2023's Q1-Q3 annualized average—while two-way trade fluctuated sharply: down 14.6% to $558 billion in 2019, up 19.2% to $657.3 billion in 2021, and projected at $664 billion in 2023, China hitting just 57% of Phase One's $200 billion 2020-2021 purchase target, its share of U.S. imports falling from 21.6% to 18.6%, U.S. exports to China rising 7.9% in 2020 (despite tensions) to $125 billion (up from $120.3 billion in 2018), and a persistent $40.5 billion services trade surplus in 2019, with the cumulative deficit from the 2018 peak dropping by over $100 billion.
US Economic Impacts
- US GDP reduced by 0.3% due to trade war tariffs per Moody's
- 245,000 US jobs lost due to trade war by 2020, Fed study
- US manufacturing employment fell 1.4% (180,000 jobs) 2018-2019
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% due to tariffs, costing households $419/year
- US agricultural exports declined $13.3 billion in 2019
- Soybean exports to China dropped 74% to $3.1B in 2018
- Government farm aid reached $28 billion 2018-2019 for trade war losses
- US GDP growth shaved 0.23% in 2019 by tariffs, IMF estimate
- 300,000+ manufacturing jobs at risk per Oxford Economics
- Inflation up 0.2-0.5% from tariffs 2018-2020, Fed NY
- US households paid $51 billion extra in 2019 from tariffs
- Unemployment in farm states rose 0.5% avg 2019
- Investment fell 0.7% of GDP due to uncertainty
- Phase One boosted ag exports by $12.8B but short of target
- Stock market volatility index (VIX) spiked 50% during tariff escalations
- Retail prices for washing machines up 12% post-tariffs
- US auto industry lost $3.5B in exports to China 2019
- Small business confidence dropped 5 points in 2019 surveys
- Corporate earnings reduced 2.5% avg for S&P 500 in 2019
US Economic Impacts Interpretation
If the US-China trade war were an economic board game, the US economy would be trailing badly: tariffs have shaved 0.3% off GDP (and 0.23% in 2019 alone), cost households $419 in extra 2019 expenses (and $51 billion total), eliminated 245,000 jobs by 2020, cut manufacturing employment by 1.4% (180,000 jobs), hit farmers with $13.3 billion in lost exports (including a 74% drop in soybean sales to China) and $28 billion in government aid, spiked inflation by 0.2-0.5%, choked investment by 0.7% of GDP, boosted stock volatility by 50%, raised washing machine prices by 12%, cost the auto industry $3.5 billion in exports to China, dropped small business confidence by 5 points, and trimmed S&P 500 earnings by 2.5%—even as Phase One lifted ag exports by $12.8 billion, it fell short of its target.
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