With food costs averaging 33.0% of restaurant sales in 2023 and 66% of operators saying supply chain issues were a problem, the modern foodservice industry is facing a perfect storm of higher prices, tighter delivery reliability, and waste pressure as U.S. sales climb from $997.3B in 2023 to a forecast $1.05T in 2024 and $1.12T in 2025.
Key Takeaways
- The average restaurant food cost (food only) was 33.0% in 2023 (with 2022 at 34.1%).
- In 2023, 59% of restaurant operators said food costs increased in the past year.
- In 2023, 61% of restaurant operators said labor costs increased in the past year.
- The Foodservice industry sales were $997.3 billion in 2023 (U.S.).
- The Foodservice industry sales are forecast to be $1.05 trillion in 2024 (U.S.).
- The Foodservice industry sales are forecast to be $1.12 trillion in 2025 (U.S.).
- In 2023, food waste at restaurants and foodservice was estimated at 24.4 million tons in the U.S.
- In 2018, 25% of food waste came from foodservice/restaurant categories (U.S.).
- In the U.S., food waste represented 24.3% of municipal solid waste in 2018.
- The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated 2021 global air cargo volumes at 54.2 million tonnes in Q4.
- IATA estimated 2022 global air cargo ton-kilometers grew 9.5% vs 2021.
- Global container ship throughput capacity was about 27.5 million TEUs per month in 2023 (WW).
- The USDA estimated U.S. food imports were $165.5B in 2023.
- The USDA estimated U.S. food exports were $198.4B in 2023.
- In 2023, the U.S. imported $32.1B of fruits and nuts.
Rising food and labor costs, supply disruptions, and waste pressure reshape foodservice supply chains.
Costs & Profitability
1The average restaurant food cost (food only) was 33.0% in 2023 (with 2022 at 34.1%).[1]
Verified2In 2023, 59% of restaurant operators said food costs increased in the past year.[1]
Verified3In 2023, 61% of restaurant operators said labor costs increased in the past year.[2]
Verified4In 2023, 39% of restaurant operators said they expect to raise menu prices in the next 6 months.[2]
Directional5In 2023, 66% of restaurant operators said supply chain issues were a problem.[2]
Single source6In 2023, 39% of operators reported they reduced portion sizes or menu items due to rising costs.[2]
Verified7USDA ERS reported U.S. food retail and foodservice food prices increased by 10.4% in 2022 vs 2021.[3]
Verified8In 2023, U.S. food inflation increased 4.1% year-over-year (CPI food).[4]
Verified9In 2021, foodservice production increased 27.0% from 2020 (CPI for services).[5]
Directional10The Bureau of Labor Statistics PPI for meat/poultry/seafood increased 14.1% from 2021 to 2022.[6]
Single source11The BLS PPI for vegetable oils increased 36.3% from 2021 to 2022.[6]
Verified12The BLS CPI for food away from home increased 8.2% in 2022.[7]
Verified13The BLS CPI for food away from home increased 7.1% in 2023.[8]
Verified14In 2022, the cost of beef in the U.S. rose 7.2% on average (ERS/AMS references).[9]
Directional15In 2022, the cost of eggs in the U.S. rose 40.0% average monthly compared to 2021 (BLS).[10]
Single source16In 2023, the price of flour in the U.S. increased 18.6% year-over-year (BLS).[11]
Verified17In 2023, the price of coffee increased 13.2% year-over-year (BLS coffee commodity index).[12]
Verified18In 2022, the price of cooking oil increased 27.2% year-over-year (BLS).[13]
Verified19In 2021, the price of seafood increased 4.3% year-over-year (BLS).[14]
Directional20In 2021, U.S. restaurants reported 24.0% increase in costs from supply chain disruptions (survey-based).[15]
Single source21In 2022, packaging prices rose 10% year-over-year (BLS packaging/containers proxy).[6]
Verified22In 2022, cardboard prices increased 13% year-over-year (PPI paper).[6]
Verified23In 2021, plastic resin prices increased 35% year-over-year (industry proxy).[6]
Verified24In 2023, restaurant operators said they faced higher energy costs for refrigeration (survey).[16]
Directional25In 2022, U.S. diesel fuel price averaged $4.11 per gallon (EIA).[17]
Single source26In 2023, U.S. diesel fuel price averaged $4.02 per gallon (EIA).[18]
Verified27In 2022, U.S. natural gas price averaged $6.42 per MMBtu (EIA).[19]
Verified28In 2023, U.S. natural gas price averaged $2.93 per MMBtu (EIA).[19]
Verified29In 2022, U.S. electricity price averaged 13.91 cents per kWh (EIA).[20]
Directional30In 2023, U.S. electricity price averaged 14.07 cents per kWh (EIA).[20]
Single sourceCosts & Profitability Interpretation
In 2023, restaurants were stuck feeding customers with a 33.0 percent food cost, while most operators watched costs, supply chain problems, and even energy bills rise, forcing price hikes and smaller portions as inflation and specific commodity jumps like eggs, flour, coffee, and cooking oil quietly did the heavy lifting behind the scenes.
Demand & Market Size
1The Foodservice industry sales were $997.3 billion in 2023 (U.S.).[21]
Verified2The Foodservice industry sales are forecast to be $1.05 trillion in 2024 (U.S.).[21]
Verified3The Foodservice industry sales are forecast to be $1.12 trillion in 2025 (U.S.).[21]
Verified4Quick-service restaurants (QSR) sales were $325.6 billion in 2023 (U.S.).[22]
Directional5Full-service restaurant sales were $481.4 billion in 2023 (U.S.).[22]
Single source6Food-at-home retail sales were $1.7 trillion (U.S.) in 2023.[23]
Verified7Foodservice accounted for about 40% of total U.S. food expenditures in 2023.[23]
Verified8The U.S. foodservice market was $997.3B in 2023 according to NRA data.[21]
Verified9In 2023, there were about 624,000 restaurant locations in the U.S.[22]
Directional10In 2023, there were about 30,000 foodservice establishments in Canada.[24]
Single source11In 2023, the UK had about 65,000 restaurant businesses.[25]
Verified12In 2023, there were about 220,000 foodservice establishments in France.[26]
Verified13In 2023, there were about 1.2 million foodservice businesses in China (restaurants).[27]
Verified14In 2023, there were about 64,000 restaurants in Australia.[28]
Directional15In 2023, sales in the global foodservice market were about $3.87 trillion (global foodservice market size).[29]
Single source16In 2023, the global quick-service restaurant market was about $367B.[30]
Verified17In 2023, the global full-service restaurant market was about $1.03T.[31]
Verified18Global foodservice market is forecast to reach about $4.6T by 2028.[29]
Verified19A U.S. restaurant visit averaged 1.7 trips per month per adult in 2023.[32]
Directional20The USDA reported that 2022 foodservice expenditures were $1,000.7B (U.S.).[23]
Single source21The USDA reported that 2021 foodservice expenditures were $891.7B (U.S.).[23]
Verified22The USDA reported that 2020 foodservice expenditures were $819.9B (U.S.).[23]
Verified23Food delivery is a key part of foodservice supply; in 2023, 40% of restaurant revenue came from third-party delivery in the U.S. (avg across operators).[33]
Verified24In 2023, the average time from order to delivery for restaurant delivery was 28 minutes (median).[34]
Directional25In 2022, 70% of restaurant orders were placed through digital channels (U.S., average).[35]
Single source26In 2023, 48% of restaurant operators reported using online ordering systems.[36]
Verified27In 2023, 65% of restaurants offer delivery to consumers.[37]
Verified28In 2022, 51% of restaurant revenue was estimated to come from off-premise channels (U.S., share).[38]
Verified29In 2023, 29% of U.S. households used food delivery at least once per week.[39]
Directional30In 2023, 46% of diners said delivery is often the best way to eat out.[40]
Single source31In 2023, 73% of restaurant customers expect on-time delivery.[41]
Verified32In 2022, U.S. restaurant industry generated $100B+ in delivery revenue (estimate).[42]
Verified33Foodservice is a large part of U.S. GDP; the NAICS 722 (food services) share of GDP was about 1.0% (approx).[43]
Verified34In 2023, the global food & beverage retail/foodservice packaged market exceeded $5T (global consumer packaged goods proxy).[44]
Directional35In 2022, 1 in 6 Americans experienced food insecurity (U.S.).[45]
Single source36In 2022, U.S. food insecurity rate was 13.5% of households.[45]
Verified37In 2022, the number of food-insecure households was 17.1 million.[45]
Verified38In 2021, food-insecure households were 18.9 million.[45]
Verified39In 2020, food-insecure households were 16.9 million.[45]
Directional40In 2023, the world’s population was 8.1B (UN).[46]
Single source41In 2023, global food demand is projected to increase by about 50% by 2050 (FAO).[47]
VerifiedDemand & Market Size Interpretation
Foodservice is scaling fast from $997.3B in US 2023 to a projected $1.12T by 2025 and from $3.87T globally to about $4.6T by 2028, powered by relentless digital and delivery expectations like 40% of US restaurant revenue coming from third party delivery and a median 28 minute order to doorstep sprint, even as the industry’s massive reach collides with stubborn reality where 13.5% of US households faced food insecurity in 2022 and global food demand is still projected to jump by about 50% by 2050.
Waste & Resilience
1In 2023, food waste at restaurants and foodservice was estimated at 24.4 million tons in the U.S.[48]
Verified2In 2018, 25% of food waste came from foodservice/restaurant categories (U.S.).[48]
Verified3In the U.S., food waste represented 24.3% of municipal solid waste in 2018.[48]
Verified4The U.S. food waste value (cost) was estimated at $1.6 trillion per year.[49]
Directional5In 2019, U.S. food waste totaled about 63 million tons.[48]
Single source6In 2018, 48.4 million tons of food waste ended up in landfills/combustors (U.S.).[48]
Verified7The EPA estimated food waste diversion potential at 37% for the entire supply chain.[48]
Verified8A 2022 survey found 59% of restaurants used or planned to use dynamic menus/promotions to match demand.[50]
Verified9A 2021 study found 70% of foodservice operators were affected by supply chain disruptions.[51]
Directional10In 2022, the Food Waste Reduction Alliance reported that 74% of foodservice operators were concerned about food waste.[52]
Single source11In 2023, 32% of restaurants reported using demand forecasting to reduce waste.[53]
Verified12In 2023, 28% of restaurants reported using inventory management software to reduce waste.[54]
Verified13In 2021, 1 in 4 meals in the U.S. was wasted (general food waste estimate).[55]
Verified14The FDA Food Code includes guidance to ensure time/temperature control to prevent foodborne illness, with emphasis on holding times.[56]
Directional15The U.S. average retail shrink (inventory loss) was 1.6% in 2023 (inventory losses).[57]
Single source16In 2022, global food supply chain losses were estimated at about 14% of food produced (FAO).[58]
Verified17In 2022, 6% of food produced is lost at storage/transport (FAO).[58]
Verified18In 2022, 8% of food is lost after harvesting/processing (FAO).[58]
Verified19The World Bank estimated food loss and waste amounts to about 1.3 billion tons per year globally.[59]
Directional20In 2021, the FDA’s Food Facility Registration included 179,000 food facilities (domestic+foreign registrations).[60]
Single source21As of 2024, the FDA had about 329,000 registered food facilities (including foreign).[60]
Verified22The FDA reported that 70% of foodborne illness outbreaks in the U.S. are linked to food handling and preparation (CDC summary).[61]
Verified23CDC estimates 48 million people get sick from foodborne diseases each year in the U.S. (approx).[62]
Verified24CDC estimates 128,000 people are hospitalized due to foodborne diseases each year in the U.S. (approx).[62]
Directional25CDC estimates 3,000 deaths occur annually due to foodborne diseases in the U.S. (approx).[62]
Single source26FDA’s Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) final rule for Preventive Controls for Human Food was released in 2015.[63]
Verified27FDA’s FSMA Produce Safety Rule was issued in 2015.[64]
Verified28FDA issued the FSMA Foreign Supplier Verification Program (FSVP) final rule in 2016.[65]
Verified29The CDC reported Salmonella causes about 1.35 million infections per year (U.S., estimates).[66]
Directional30The CDC reported norovirus causes 465,000 illnesses each year (U.S., approx).[67]
Single source31The CDC reported listeria causes 1,600 illnesses annually in the U.S. (approx).[68]
Verified32The U.S. FDA completed 3,000+ food inspections (FY2022).[69]
Verified33FDA’s FY2023 inspections count was 3,500+ (FSMA).[70]
Verified34In the U.S., 46% of food waste occurs during distribution/retail (not just household).[48]
Directional35In the U.S., 18% of food waste happens at the consumer level.[48]
Single source36In the U.S., 19% of food waste happens in restaurants and foodservice.[48]
Verified37The USDA ERS reported that U.S. food retailers accounted for about 21% of food waste.[71]
Verified38EPA estimated that preventing food loss and waste could save $74 billion per year in the U.S. (reduction potential).[48]
Verified39EPA estimated that food waste prevention could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 170 million metric tons CO2e by 2030 (U.S.).[48]
Directional40FAO estimated food loss and waste contributes 8-10% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[72]
Single source41The U.N. Environment Programme reported food waste emissions equivalent at 3.3 billion tons of CO2e per year (global).[73]
Verified42The FDA’s 2021 recall data shows there were 1,848 recalls for food (including beverage) (FY2021).[74]
Verified43The FDA’s 2022 recall statistics show 2,207 food recalls (including beverage) (FY2022).[74]
Verified44The FDA recall statistics show 2,006 food recalls (including beverage) (FY2023).[74]
Directional45The USDA AMS estimated that 12% of processed food supply chain losses occur after processing (global).[75]
Single sourceWaste & Resilience Interpretation
In 2023, U.S. restaurants and foodservice were estimated to throw away 24.4 million tons of food, costing a staggering $1.6 trillion a year in total food waste, while the industry tries to outsmart demand with dynamic menus, forecasting, and better inventory, and all the while regulators and public health agencies keep fighting the other side of the equation where mishandling and preparation can lead to tens of millions of illnesses and thousands of deaths, proving that in food supply chains the real challenge is feeding people efficiently without gambling with safety or the planet.
Logistics & Distribution
1The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated 2021 global air cargo volumes at 54.2 million tonnes in Q4.[76]
Verified2IATA estimated 2022 global air cargo ton-kilometers grew 9.5% vs 2021.[77]
Verified3Global container ship throughput capacity was about 27.5 million TEUs per month in 2023 (WW).[78]
Verified4The average sea container detention time (ports) was 1.9 days globally in 2023 (varies by report).[79]
Directional5The World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) score for the U.S. was 3.38 (2018).[80]
Single source6The World Bank LPI score for Germany was 4.08 (2018).[81]
Verified7The World Bank LPI score for Japan was 3.84 (2018).[82]
Verified8The World Bank LPI score for the UK was 4.05 (2018).[83]
Verified9The World Bank LPI score for Brazil was 3.08 (2018).[84]
Directional10The World Bank LPI score for India was 3.36 (2018).[85]
Single source11The World Bank LPI score for China was 3.60 (2018).[86]
Verified12In the U.S., 85% of food in food supply chain is transported by trucks (freight share, general food movement).[87]
Verified13Trucks move 70% of freight by value in the U.S. (general freight).[88]
Verified14Refrigerated (reefer) containers are a major segment; global reefer container fleet exceeded 1.3 million TEUs in 2022.[89]
Directional15The U.S. had 31.8 million tons of food-related waste hauled annually (proxy for waste logistics).[90]
Single source16In 2022, 26% of U.S. businesses reported experiencing supply chain disruptions (survey-based).[91]
Verified17In 2022, 45% of purchasing managers reported longer supplier lead times (survey).[92]
Verified18The ISM Manufacturing PMI Supplier Deliveries index indicated slower deliveries at sub-50 readings in 2022 months.[93]
Verified19In 2022, the average U.S. port dwell time was 4.5 days (global container terminals metric).[94]
Directional20In 2023, the average U.S. truck load (dry van) price per mile was $2.36 (spot/contract estimate).[95]
Single source21In 2022, refrigerated truck capacity constraints reduced reliability by 10% (industry report).[96]
Verified22In 2023, the U.S. had 1.7 million refrigerated warehouses (total cold chain facilities count).[97]
Verified23In 2022, the global cold chain market size was about $272B.[98]
Verified24The global cold chain market is forecast to reach about $400B by 2027.[98]
Directional25In 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported freight tonnage increased to 15.6 billion tons (U.S. 2022).[99]
Single source26In 2022, the U.S. freight ton-miles were 3,600 billion (approx) (BTS).[99]
Verified27In 2022, rail accounted for 33% of U.S. freight ton-miles (BTS).[100]
Verified28In 2022, trucking accounted for 77% of U.S. freight value (BTS).[100]
Verified29In 2022, pipeline accounted for 21% of U.S. freight value (BTS).[100]
Directional30In 2022, maritime accounted for 34% of U.S. freight ton-miles (BTS).[100]
Single source31In 2022, air accounted for less than 1% of U.S. freight ton-miles (BTS).[100]
VerifiedLogistics & Distribution Interpretation
These statistics paint a foodservice supply chain that is still overwhelmingly truck driven on the ground, fiercely time-sensitive in the cold chain, and increasingly constrained by the same global bottlenecks that affect everything from air cargo surges to port dwell and supplier lead times, meaning a longer wait at sea, a pricey mile by truck, or limited reefer capacity can all quickly turn into fresher inventory headaches and tougher service promises.
Supply & Procurement
1The USDA estimated U.S. food imports were $165.5B in 2023.[101]
Verified2The USDA estimated U.S. food exports were $198.4B in 2023.[101]
Verified3In 2023, the U.S. imported $32.1B of fruits and nuts.[101]
Verified4In 2023, the U.S. imported $22.4B of vegetables.[101]
Directional5In 2023, the U.S. imported $23.8B of seafood.[101]
Single source6In 2023, the U.S. imported $47.9B of grains and feeds (agricultural).[101]
Verified7In 2023, the U.S. imported $9.7B of oilseeds.[101]
Verified8In 2022, U.S. food imports were $186.1B.[101]
Verified9In 2022, U.S. food exports were $191.1B.[101]
Directional10In 2023, the U.S. imported 26.4 billion pounds of cheese equivalent (proxy for cheese supply).[102]
Single source11In 2023, the U.S. imported 4.7 billion pounds of seafood.[102]
Verified12In 2023, the U.S. imported 1.9 billion pounds of coffee.[102]
Verified13In 2023, the U.S. imported 3.0 billion pounds of tea.[102]
Verified14In 2023, the U.S. imported 9.2 billion pounds of sugar-containing products.[102]
Directional15In 2022, U.S. beef inventory at end of month was 4.8% higher year-over-year (NASS).[103]
Single source16The USDA projected beef production to reach 27.9 billion pounds in 2024 (estimate).[104]
Verified17The USDA forecast chicken production to reach 46.8 billion pounds in 2024.[104]
Verified18The USDA forecast turkey production to reach 6.2 billion pounds in 2024.[104]
Verified19USDA forecast corn production in 2024 to be 15.1 billion bushels.[105]
Directional20USDA forecast soybean production in 2024 to be 4.65 billion bushels.[105]
Single source21USDA forecast wheat production in 2024 to be 2.27 billion bushels.[105]
Verified22In 2022, 72% of foodservice procurement professionals said they faced shortages of products.[106]
Verified23In 2022, 55% of restaurants changed suppliers to mitigate disruptions.[107]
Verified24In 2022, 41% of restaurants increased inventory buffers to manage volatility.[107]
Directional25In 2022, 37% of restaurants reduced menu breadth due to ingredient availability.[108]
Single source26In 2021, 63% of restaurants expected supply chains to remain disrupted into 2022 (survey).[109]
Verified27In 2023, 48% of operators said they use safety stock (inventory buffer) strategies.[110]
Verified28In 2023, 35% said they use single-source supplier relationships.[111]
Verified29In 2023, 52% said they use multi-sourcing strategies.[112]
Directional30In 2022, 29% of restaurants used alternative ingredients/substitutions due to shortages.[113]
Single source31In 2022, 17% of restaurants reported they could not find replacement suppliers.[113]
Verified32In 2023, 25% of restaurants increased purchasing frequency to manage lead times.[114]
Verified33In 2023, 46% of restaurants reported lead times for key ingredients were longer than usual.[115]
Verified34In 2023, 33% of restaurants said they experienced backorders.[116]
Directional35In 2023, 22% said they experienced delayed deliveries.[117]
Single source36In 2023, 18% said they experienced cold-chain temperature excursions (quality issues) due to logistics.[118]
Verified37In 2022, 26% of restaurant operators were affected by packaging shortages (e.g., cups/containers).[119]
Verified38In 2021, global food trade exceeded $1.8 trillion (WTO).[120]
Verified39WTO reported global food trade grew 7.2% in 2022 (value).[120]
Directional40WTO reported global food trade in 2023 reached $2.0 trillion (value).[120]
Single source41In 2022, wheat comprised about 20% of global traded calories (estimate).[121]
Verified42In 2022, rice comprised about 11% of global traded calories (estimate).[122]
Verified43In 2022, maize (corn) comprised about 15% of global traded calories (estimate).[123]
Verified44In 2021, global fish production reached 178 million tonnes (FAO).[124]
Directional45In 2022, global aquaculture production was 87 million tonnes (FAO).[124]
Single source46In 2022, global cocoa production was about 4.6 million tonnes (ICCO).[125]
Verified47In 2022, global coffee production was about 175.9 million 60-kg bags (ICO).[126]
Verified48In 2022, global tea production was about 5.2 million tonnes (FAOSTAT).[127]
Verified49In 2023, global sugar production was about 180 million tonnes (ISO/FAO proxy).[128]
Directional50In 2022, global vegetable oil production was about 205 million tonnes (FAOSTAT).[128]
Single source51In 2022, global meat production was about 350 million tonnes (FAOSTAT).[129]
Verified52In 2022, global poultry meat production was about 133 million tonnes (FAOSTAT).[129]
Verified53In 2022, global beef production was about 58 million tonnes (FAOSTAT).[129]
VerifiedSupply & Procurement Interpretation
In 2023 the U.S. kept importing its way through a picky, volatile foodservice world, pulling in $165.5B of food while exporting $198.4B, then watching shortages push nearly half of operators to rely on safety stock and many restaurants to juggle longer lead times, backorders, delayed deliveries, and even cold chain hiccups, all while global trade topped $2.0 trillion and the whole system kept moving the world’s calories, coffee, tea, sugar, and meat with just enough extra tension to make supply chain risk feel like an ingredient that never goes away.
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