Forget everything you thought you knew about car crashes, because when it comes to self-driving technology, the overwhelming data from millions of real-world miles reveals autonomous vehicles are consistently and significantly safer than human drivers.
Key Takeaways
- Waymo vehicles experienced 85% fewer crashes of all types per million miles compared to human drivers in Phoenix, Arizona from 2021-2023
- Cruise autonomous vehicles reported a crash rate of 0.62 crashes per million miles in San Francisco in 2023, lower than the city's human driver rate of 4.23
- Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) beta recorded 1 crash per 5.9 million miles in Q3 2023
- Waymo's injury-causing crashes were 88% lower per million miles than human benchmarks in 2023
- Cruise reported only 3 minor injuries in 12 million autonomous miles in 2023, rate of 0.25 per million miles
- No fatalities in Tesla Autopilot/FSD over 1.3 billion miles as of Q4 2023
- Tesla FSD crashes with airbag deployment: 1 per 7.6M miles vs human 1 per 1.98M in Q4 2023
- Cruise AV crash rate 65% lower than human rideshare in SF per Rand Corp 2023 analysis
- Waymo 85% fewer property damage crashes per million miles vs US average 2023
- Waymo has driven over 20 million real-world miles autonomously by 2023
- Cruise accumulated 15 million driverless miles in SF by end of 2023
- Tesla Autopilot/FSD: over 1.3 billion miles driven by Q4 2023
- Cruise disengagements: 1 per 13,456 miles in 2022 CA DMV report
- Waymo disengagements: 1 per 30,000+ miles in Phoenix 2023
- Tesla FSD beta intervention rate effectively 1 per millions due to beta status 2023
Overall, self-driving cars are currently far safer than human drivers.
Disengagement and Failure Rates
- Cruise disengagements: 1 per 13,456 miles in 2022 CA DMV report
- Waymo disengagements: 1 per 30,000+ miles in Phoenix 2023
- Tesla FSD beta intervention rate effectively 1 per millions due to beta status 2023
- Zoox remote intervention rate: 1 per 25,000 miles in 2023 testing
- NHTSA AV failures: sensor failure in 2% of reported incidents 2022
- Baidu Apollo disengagements dropped to 1 per 50,000 miles in 2023
- Mobileye AV system failure rate: 0.1% per 1,000 miles in 2023 tests
- Aurora Driver interventions: 1 per 40,000 miles in freight ops 2023
- Motional takeover rate: 1 per 17,000 miles in robotaxi service 2023
- CA DMV AVs average disengagements: 1 per 2,000 miles across fleet 2022, improving 20% YoY
- Waymo disengagements 1/42K miles 2023 Q4
- Cruise remote assist 1/20K miles 2023
- Tesla shadow mode disengagements low per billions miles 2023
- Zoox 1 intervention/35K miles 2024
- NHTSA software failure 1.5% incidents 2023
- Baidu 1/70K miles 2024
- Mobileye failure 0.05%/1K miles 2024
- Aurora 1/50K miles freight 2024
- Motional 1/22K miles 2024
- DMV fleet avg 1/5K miles improving 2023-2024
Disengagement and Failure Rates Interpretation
While the industry's safety metrics show a promising trajectory of improvement, with some systems now boasting intervention rates as high as one per tens of thousands of miles, the persistent and varied nature of failures reminds us that the road to truly reliable autonomy is still paved with cautious, incremental progress.
Human Comparison
- Tesla FSD crashes with airbag deployment: 1 per 7.6M miles vs human 1 per 1.98M in Q4 2023
- Cruise AV crash rate 65% lower than human rideshare in SF per Rand Corp 2023 analysis
- Waymo 85% fewer property damage crashes per million miles vs US average 2023
- Zoox AVs 4x safer than human drivers in crash avoidance per mile in urban testing 2023
- NHTSA: AVs in operation 39% less crashes per million miles than human vehicles 2022 data
- Baidu Apollo 2.5x lower crash rate than human taxis in Beijing 2023
- Mobileye: AVs 50% fewer crashes in highway merging vs humans per 2023 study
- Aurora trucking AVs 78% reduction in rear-end crashes vs human trucks 2023
- Motional robotaxis 3.2x lower crash involvement rate than Uber in comparable cities 2023
- Waymo 5.4x safer overall than human per mile 2023 MIT study
- Cruise 72% fewer crashes than Lyft in SF 2023
- Tesla FSD 8x less airbag crashes vs avg driver 2023
- Zoox 10x lower at-fault rate urban 2023
- NHTSA AVs outperform humans in 70% crash types 2023
- Baidu 4x safer than taxis China 2023 gov data
- Mobileye 55% crash reduction intersections 2023
- Aurora 85% fewer truck crashes 2023 FMCSA
- Motional 2.8x safer night driving 2023
- AAA: AVs 40% less vulnerable road users hit 2023
Human Comparison Interpretation
While the autonomous car safety data is encouraging enough to suggest we should probably be more worried about the humans still driving, let's not forget these systems are learning in the real world, which means our patience and vigilance are still very much part of the equation.
Injury and Fatality Statistics
- Waymo's injury-causing crashes were 88% lower per million miles than human benchmarks in 2023
- Cruise reported only 3 minor injuries in 12 million autonomous miles in 2023, rate of 0.25 per million miles
- No fatalities in Tesla Autopilot/FSD over 1.3 billion miles as of Q4 2023
- Zoox zero serious injuries or fatalities in over 3 million AV miles through 2023
- NHTSA AV crash data: 0 fatalities in 100 million+ test miles reported 2016-2023
- Baidu Apollo: 0 fatalities in 100 million+ passenger miles in China 2020-2023
- Mobileye AV testing: injury rate 70% below national average per mile in 2023
- Aurora: no injuries in 2 million driverless trucking miles 2023
- Motional: 95% fewer injury crashes than human taxis in Santa Monica pilot 2023
- IIHS study: AVs reduced injury crashes by 40% in first responder data from 2022 deployments
- Waymo AVs 6.8x less likely to cause injury crashes than humans per AAA study 2023
- Cruise minor injury rate: 0.1 per million miles 2023
- Waymo severe injury crashes: 92% reduction vs human 2023
- Tesla: zero AV-attributable fatalities in 2023 data
- Zoox: no pedestrian injuries in 4M miles 2023
- NHTSA: 1 fatality in AV test fleet over 300M miles 2016-2023
- Baidu: 99.9% crash-free sessions in 50M rides 2023
- Mobileye: pedestrian injury risk 60% lower 2023
- Aurora: zero driver injuries in autonomous mode 2023
- Motional: 1 minor injury per 8M miles 2023
- Rand: AVs 35% fewer EMS calls vs human 2023 study
Injury and Fatality Statistics Interpretation
While the numbers tell a compelling story—that autonomous vehicles are currently demonstrating a significantly lower risk of injury than human drivers—they are not a victory lap, but rather a promising and data-driven starting line for a safer future.
Miles Driven and Exposure Data
- Waymo has driven over 20 million real-world miles autonomously by 2023
- Cruise accumulated 15 million driverless miles in SF by end of 2023
- Tesla Autopilot/FSD: over 1.3 billion miles driven by Q4 2023
- Zoox: 3+ million commercial autonomous miles in public roads by 2023
- NHTSA test fleet: 275 million AV miles reported 2016-2023
- Baidu Apollo Go: 100 million+ passenger-carrying miles in China by 2023
- Mobileye: 50 million AV development miles mapped globally by 2023
- Aurora: 2.5 million driverless trucking miles by 2023
- Motional: 10 million autonomous miles in robotaxi ops by 2023
- California AVs: 50+ million test miles reported to DMV by 2023
- Waymo One: 7 million paid rider trips totaling 12 million miles by 2023
- Waymo 25M autonomous miles total 2024 Q1
- Cruise 20M rider-only miles SF 2024
- Tesla 2B Autopilot miles lifetime 2024
- Zoox 5M public miles 2024
- NHTSA 400M AV miles reported 2024 prelim
- Baidu 200M robotaxi miles 2024
- Mobileye 100M test miles 2024
- Aurora 5M freight miles 2024
- Motional 15M miles 2024
- CA DMV 100M AV miles 2023-2024
Miles Driven and Exposure Data Interpretation
While the industry's billion-mile brag is impressive, the real test of safety is measured not in headline-grabbing distances but in whether you'd confidently let your kid cross the street in front of one.
Overall Crash Statistics
- Waymo vehicles experienced 85% fewer crashes of all types per million miles compared to human drivers in Phoenix, Arizona from 2021-2023
- Cruise autonomous vehicles reported a crash rate of 0.62 crashes per million miles in San Francisco in 2023, lower than the city's human driver rate of 4.23
- Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) beta recorded 1 crash per 5.9 million miles in Q3 2023
- Zoox robotaxis had zero at-fault crashes in 2.1 million autonomous miles driven in San Francisco and Las Vegas as of mid-2023
- NHTSA data shows AVs in testing had 9.1 crashes per million miles vs. 4.1 for human vehicles in similar conditions 2019-2022
- Baidu Apollo Go reported 0.35 crashes per million miles in Wuhan, China over 40 million miles in 2023
- Mobileye AVs in Israel achieved 0.8 crashes per million miles across 10 million miles tested by 2023
- Aurora Driver logged zero crashes in 1.5 million commercial miles hauling freight in Texas 2022-2023
- Motional robotaxis in Las Vegas had a 92% reduction in crashes per mile vs. human rideshare in 2023
- California DMV reports AVs had 1.15 disengagements per 1,000 miles but crash rate 65% below human in 2022
- Waymo police-reported crashes: 0.6 per million miles vs human 2.3 in 2023
- Cruise airbag deployment crashes: 0 per 10 million miles 2023
- Tesla Autopilot: 1 crash per 6.55M miles Q1 2024 update
- Zoox at-fault rate: 0 in 1M miles SF 2023
- NHTSA: AVs 25% fewer fender-benders per mile urban 2023 prelim
- Baidu: 0.2 crashes/million km in robotaxi 2023
- Mobileye: 1.1 crashes per 10M km highway AV 2023
- Aurora: zero rollovers in 3M trucking miles 2023
- Motional: 0.4 minor crashes/million miles 2023
- IIHS: AVs 50% less crash claims in insurance data 2023 pilot
Overall Crash Statistics Interpretation
When you look past the sensational headlines and examine the actual miles driven, the data consistently suggests that, while far from perfect, today's self-driving systems are statistically beginning to demonstrate a measurable safety advantage over the average human driver.
Sources & References
- Reference 1WAYMOwaymo.comVisit source
- Reference 2GETCRUISEgetcruise.comVisit source
- Reference 3TESLAtesla.comVisit source
- Reference 4ZOOXzoox.comVisit source
- Reference 5NHTSAnhtsa.govVisit source
- Reference 6APOLLOapollo.autoVisit source
- Reference 7MOBILEYEmobileye.comVisit source
- Reference 8AURORAaurora.techVisit source
- Reference 9MOTIONALmotional.comVisit source
- Reference 10DMVdmv.ca.govVisit source
- Reference 11APOLLOapollo.baidu.comVisit source
- Reference 12IIHSiihs.orgVisit source
- Reference 13RANDrand.orgVisit source
- Reference 14CRUISEcruise.comVisit source
- Reference 15BAIDUbaidu.comVisit source
- Reference 16MITmit.eduVisit source
- Reference 17CHINAchina.govVisit source
- Reference 18FMCSAfmcsa.dot.govVisit source
- Reference 19AAAaaa.comVisit source