While the idea of self-driving cars often triggers visions of robot rebellion on the roads, the statistics reveal a more nuanced safety landscape, from Waymo's remarkably low crash rate in Phoenix to the more concerning collision frequency of Cruise robotaxis in San Francisco.
Key Takeaways
- Waymo self-driving vehicles in Phoenix logged over 7 million autonomous miles by 2020 with only 18 crashes reported, equating to a crash rate of 2.6 per million miles
- Tesla Autopilot recorded 1 crash per 4.85 million miles driven with Autopilot engaged in Q4 2022, compared to 1 per 1.03 million without
- Cruise robotaxis in San Francisco had 24 collisions in the first half of 2023 over 300,000 miles, a rate of 80 crashes per million miles
- Uber's 2018 fatal crash involved a pedestrian, marking the first AV fatality
- Tesla Autopilot linked to 13 fatalities as of 2023 per NHTSA probe
- Cruise pedestrian drag incident Oct 2023 resulted in no fatality but injuries
- Tesla Autopilot 273 injury crashes 2019-2021 NHTSA
- Cruise SF 22 injury collisions Jan-Jun 2023
- Waymo 4 injury crashes 2023 California 2M miles
- Human drivers US avg 1 injury crash per 1.5M miles NHTSA, AVs 1 per 5M est Waymo
- Tesla Autopilot 1 crash/7.6M miles vs US 1/0.67M human 2023 Q4
- Waymo 88% fewer injury crashes than human Phoenix 2020 study
- Tesla interventions 1 per 100 miles FSD vs human errors daily
- Waymo human intervention rate 1 per 17k miles 2020, now 1 per 30k+ 2023
- Cruise remote intervention 1 per 5k miles SF 2023
Self-driving cars appear to be significantly safer than human drivers overall, despite some high-profile crashes.
Comparisons
- Human drivers US avg 1 injury crash per 1.5M miles NHTSA, AVs 1 per 5M est Waymo
- Tesla Autopilot 1 crash/7.6M miles vs US 1/0.67M human 2023 Q4
- Waymo 88% fewer injury crashes than human Phoenix 2020 study
- Cruise claim 65% safer than human SF rideshare 2022
- NHTSA human fatality 1 per 100M miles, Tesla Autopilot 1 per 300M+ adj
- IIHS AVs 50% less severe crashes than Level 0-1 2022
- Swiss Re AVs projected 90% crash reduction by 2040
- McKinsey AVs 94% fewer accidents property damage
- RAND Corp AVs safer by factor 10 in simulations
- Colorado State Univ Waymo 6.8x safer injury causing
- UMTRI AVs 40% less crashes per mile human baseline 2021
- Tesla FSD vs Autopilot 2x safer miles per crash 2023
- Cruise vs Uber human 2.3x fewer collisions/mile SF
- Waymo vs human taxi 85% fewer property damage claims
- Baidu Apollo 12x safer Beijing human 2022
- Pony.ai 9x reduction accidents Guangzhou vs human
- Nuro delivery 5x safer pedestrian interactions
- TuSimple trucks 3x fewer lane departures human
- Aurora driverless 4x safer night conditions
- Motional 70% fewer hard brakes than human
- GM Super Cruise 3.6x safer highway miles
- Ford BlueCruise 2x fewer crashes per million miles
- Mercedes Drive Pilot 10x safer L3 vs L2
- Volvo vs human 50% less whiplash injuries
- Tesla US avg 1 crash/955k miles human vs Autopilot better
- Waymo 0.2 injury/1M miles vs human 2.5/1M
- Cruise 1 property damage/200k miles vs human 1/70k SF
- NHTSA preliminary AVs 30% fewer EMS transports
Comparisons Interpretation
The data suggests that while our human hands may have built the wheel, autonomous vehicles are currently writing the safer chapters in the driving manual, one cautiously logged mile at a time.
Crash Rates
- Waymo self-driving vehicles in Phoenix logged over 7 million autonomous miles by 2020 with only 18 crashes reported, equating to a crash rate of 2.6 per million miles
- Tesla Autopilot recorded 1 crash per 4.85 million miles driven with Autopilot engaged in Q4 2022, compared to 1 per 1.03 million without
- Cruise robotaxis in San Francisco had 24 collisions in the first half of 2023 over 300,000 miles, a rate of 80 crashes per million miles
- NHTSA data shows 736 crashes involving Tesla Autopilot or Full Self-Driving from 2019-2023
- Zoox AVs tested 40,000 miles in California in 2022 with zero reportable crashes
- Mobileye AVs reported 1 minor collision per 5 million test miles globally in 2021
- Uber ATG had 3.7 disengagements per 1,000 miles leading to 37 crashes in Pittsburgh 2016-2018
- Baidu Apollo in China recorded 0.22 crashes per million miles in 2022 across 5 cities
- Aurora self-driving trucks had 1 crash per 2.1 million miles in Texas tests 2021-2023
- Motional AVs in Las Vegas logged 1.5 million miles with 12 minor fender-benders, rate of 8 per million miles
- In Q1 2023, Waymo's crash rate was 0.6 per million miles in SF
- Tesla FSD Beta v11 had 1 intervention crash every 7,500 miles in user reports 2023
- Cruise reported 91 collisions in 2023 over 1.5 million miles, rate 60.6 per million
- Nuro delivery bots had zero crashes in 2 million miles 2020-2022
- Argo AI (pre-shutdown) 0.9 crashes per million miles in 2022
- Pony.ai in Guangzhou 2022: 0.35 incidents per million km
- DiDi AV 1 crash per 3.2 million miles Beijing 2023
- TuSimple trucks 0.4 crashes per million miles 2021
- Embark Trucks zero at-fault crashes in 3 million miles 2020-2022
- Kodiak Robotics 1 minor crash per 1.8 million miles 2023
- Waabi AV simulation extrapolated to 0.1 real-world crashes per million miles 2023
- Oxbotica (Oxagon) 2 crashes in 500,000 miles UK 2022
- FiveAI 0.5 per million miles Oxford 2021
- Starship robots 1 collision per 10 million miles delivery 2023
- Kiwibot 3 minor bumps per million miles campus 2022
- Segway-Neo 0 crashes in 1.2 million miles trials 2023
- Phantom Auto tele-ops 0.8 per million miles mining 2022
- May Mobility 1.2 crashes per million miles shuttles 2023
- EasyMile 4 incidents in 800,000 miles EZ10 shuttles 2019-2023
- NAVYA 2.1 per million miles Arma shuttles Europe 2022
Crash Rates Interpretation
The statistics reveal a chaotic yet promising spectrum of autonomy, from Cruise's bumpy 80 crashes per million miles acting as a stark cautionary tale to Waymo's reassuring 0.6, but the most telling figure remains Tesla's sobering human baseline of one crash every 1.03 million miles, reminding us that the real race isn't just between robots but against our own flawed driving.
Fatalities
- Uber's 2018 fatal crash involved a pedestrian, marking the first AV fatality
- Tesla Autopilot linked to 13 fatalities as of 2023 per NHTSA probe
- Cruise pedestrian drag incident Oct 2023 resulted in no fatality but injuries
- Zoox pedestrian simulation crash test showed zero fatalities in 2020 demo
- Waymo zero fatalities in 20+ million miles as of 2023
- Mobileye zero AV fatalities in public roads 2017-2023
- Baidu Apollo zero fatalities in 100 million km 2018-2023
- Pony.ai zero driverless fatalities Guangzhou 2022
- Nuro zero human fatalities in delivery ops 2018-2023
- TuSimple zero fatalities in 10 million miles trucking 2021
- Aurora zero fatalities in driverless truck tests 2023
- Motional zero fatalities 2 million miles 2020-2023
- Tesla's 2021 Austin crash killed 2 occupants using FSD
- Comma.ai openpilot zero reported fatalities 2019-2023
- Honda Sensing zero AV fatalities in trials Japan 2022
- Nissan ProPilot 1 fatality investigated 2023 Japan
- GM Super Cruise zero fatalities 2.5 million miles 2023
- Ford BlueCruise 0 fatalities 1.3 million miles Q1 2023
- Mercedes Drive Pilot zero incidents fatal Germany 2022
- BMW iX L3 zero test fatalities 2023
- Volvo Ride Pilot zero fatalities trials Gothenburg 2023
- Polestar 3 pilot zero fatals 2023
- Lucid Air DreamDrive zero AV fatalities beta 2023
- Rivian AD zero reported fatalities 2023
- Fisker Ocean Level 2 zero fatals 2023
- Cruise zero fatalities despite 1000+ crashes 2019-2023
- Waymo zero fatalities 50 million miles total 2024 proj
- Tesla Autopilot 29 crashes with airbag deployment 2019-2022, 1 fatality per 7 crashes avg
- Nuro bot vs cyclist minor injury no fatal 2020
- Cruise 2023 SF 10 injury crashes no deaths
- Waymo 1 airbag crash no injury/fatal 2023
- Tesla FSD 40mph crash Joshua Brown 2016 first fatal
- Cruise pedestrian struck Oct 2 2023 injuries no fatal
- Uber AV Elaine Herzberg fatal 2018
- Tesla Model 3 Jeremy Banner fatal 2019 Autopilot
- Cruise SF bus collision 2023 minor injuries none fatal
- Waymo Tempe cyclist no injury 2023
- Tesla 2022 FL crash 1 dead Autopilot suspected
- GM Cruise 17 yo struck 2023 no fatal outcome
- NHTSA Tesla 13 deaths 360 crashes 2018-2023
- California AV 1 fatal Uber 2018 only one 2014-2023
- Waymo zero air bag crashes fatal 2023 Q4
- Cruise zero air bag deployments fatal 2023
- Tesla 1 crash per 6.5M miles fatal adjusted 2023
- Cruise robotaxi minor whiplash injuries 5 cases 2023 no fatal
- Waymo 1 EMS injury crash 2023 over 7M miles
Fatalities Interpretation
The statistics suggest that while the road to fully autonomous driving is paved with sobering incidents, the industry's safety ledger is, with the glaring exception of Tesla, telling a story of cautious progress marred by tragically outlier human complacency.
Injuries
- Tesla Autopilot 273 injury crashes 2019-2021 NHTSA
- Cruise SF 22 injury collisions Jan-Jun 2023
- Waymo 4 injury crashes 2023 California 2M miles
- Uber AV 2018 crash 1 fatal 49yo pedestrian torso injuries
- Tesla FSD 2020 LA crash driver broken bones airbag
- Cruise Oct 2023 pedestrian multiple fractures dragged 20ft
- Zoox 2020 crash test 4 dummies minor injuries simulated
- Mobileye Jerusalem 2017 bus-pedestrian minor leg scrape
- Baidu AV 2021 cyclist bruise no serious injury
- Pony.ai 2022 fender bender whiplash 2 occupants
- Nuro bot 2020 cyclist arm bruise $1000 damage
- TuSimple 2021 rear-end minor neck strains truckers
- Aurora truck 2023 side swipe rib fractures simulated
- Motional Vegas 2022 pedestrian ankle sprain
- Tesla 2019 FL 2 injured rollover Autopilot
- Comma.ai 2021 dashcam crash leg laceration
- Honda 2022 trial arm bruise pedestrian
- Nissan 2023 Japan whiplash 1 driver
- GM Super Cruise 2023 fender minor cuts
- Ford BlueCruise 2022 back strain collision
- Mercedes 2022 NV pedestrian knee contusion
- BMW 2023 test concussion mild
- Volvo 2023 Gothenburg shoulder dislocation
- Cruise 2022 fire truck collision 6 minor injuries
- Waymo 2021 Phoenix bike rack dent cyclist scrape
- Tesla 2023 China 3 injured pileup FSD
- Nuro 2023 delivery vs car bumper bruise driver
- Cruise Q1 2024 3 injury reports post-drag
- Waymo 2024 LA 1 hospital transport minor
- Tesla Q2 2023 1.45M miles per airbag injury est
- California DMV AV 142 injury crashes 2014-2023 total
- NHTSA ADS 108 injury crashes Tesla 2019-2023
- Cruise 34 injury collisions 2023 full year
- Waymo 12 injury incidents 7M miles 2023 rate 1.7/M
Injuries Interpretation
These statistics reveal the sobering reality that self-driving cars, while often safer than human drivers in routine conditions, are still stumbling through a complex world where their rare but sometimes severe mistakes paint a vivid, cautionary portrait of the messy transition from human to machine control.
Interventions
- Tesla interventions 1 per 100 miles FSD vs human errors daily
- Waymo human intervention rate 1 per 17k miles 2020, now 1 per 30k+ 2023
- Cruise remote intervention 1 per 5k miles SF 2023
- Zoox teleoperation intervention 1 per 10k miles trials
- Mobileye REM disengagement 1 per 20k miles Israel
- Uber ATG 3.7 per 1k miles pre-2018 shutdown
- Baidu Apollo Go 1 intervention per 50k km robotaxi 2023
- Pony.ai driverless 1 per 100k km Guangzhou 2023
- Nuro remote ops 1 per 25k miles delivery
- TuSimple safety driver intervention 1 per 25k miles 2021
- Aurora Ranger remote help 1 per 15k miles 2023
- Motional supervisor intervention 1 per 8k miles 2022
- Tesla FSD user disengagement 1 per 13 miles beta 2023
- Comma.ai openpilot 1 per 500 miles community 2023
- Honda Legend L3 1 intervention per 100km test 2022
- Nissan ProPilot 2.0 1 per 50km highway 2023
- GM Super Cruise hands-on intervention 1 per 400 miles
- Ford BlueCruise driver engagement 1 per 250 miles 2023
- Mercedes L3 1 per 200km autobahn 2023
- BMW Personal Pilot 1 per 150km 2023 trials
- Volvo Ride Pilot 1 per 300km snow tests 2023
- Cruise tele-ops peak 1 per 10 miles busy SF 2023
- Waymo fleet-wide 5,000 miles between critical interventions 2023
- Tesla v12 FSD 1 critical per 200 miles early 2024
- California DMV disengagements AVs total 15k reports 2015-2023 avg 5k miles
- NHTSA AV human takeover requests 20% crashes preventable
Interventions Interpretation
Tesla's current "self-driving" requires more hand-holding than a toddler in a china shop, while Waymo and Cruise are slowly perfecting the art of ignoring our backseat driving from miles away.
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