While the dream of flawless robotaxis is still on the horizon, navigating the evolving safety landscape of self-driving cars reveals a complex story, from Waymo's 3.06 disengagements per 1,000 miles and Cruise's 31 crashes in San Francisco to Tesla Autopilot's involvement in 736 NHTSA-reported crashes and promising data points like Einride's zero crashes over 500,000 miles.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, Waymo reported 3.06 disengagements per 1,000 miles in autonomous mode, with 92% involving avoidance of potential collisions
- Cruise autonomous vehicles experienced 31 crashes in San Francisco from 2021-2023, averaging 10.3 per year
- Tesla Autopilot was involved in 736 crashes reported to NHTSA from 2018-2023
- Waymo fatal-free in 20+ million miles as of 2023, but 1 injury crash per 1.5 million miles
- Cruise 2023 pedestrian collision resulted in major injuries, 1 of 2 serious injuries in 100 crashes
- Tesla Autopilot linked to 13 fatalities 2019-2023 per NHTSA
- Waymo autonomous miles: 88% reduction in severe crashes vs humans 2019-2023
- Cruise claims 65% fewer property damage claims per mile than human rideshare
- Tesla Autopilot 5.4x safer than US average per million miles 2023
- Cruise Oct 2023 drag: AV stopped faster than human avg 1.2s
- Uber 2018 Herzberg: sensor occlusion by trash bag failed detection
- Tesla 2016 Joshua Brown fatality: overread white truck as sky
- NHTSA reports 392 AV crashes 2018-2023 total
- California DMV: 1,124 disengagements by all AVs 2022, Waymo 1,011
- NHTSA Standing General Order: 837 AV incidents reported Q1-Q3 2023
Autonomous vehicles have varied safety records but are generally involved in fewer severe crashes than human drivers.
Accident Frequency
- In 2023, Waymo reported 3.06 disengagements per 1,000 miles in autonomous mode, with 92% involving avoidance of potential collisions
- Cruise autonomous vehicles experienced 31 crashes in San Francisco from 2021-2023, averaging 10.3 per year
- Tesla Autopilot was involved in 736 crashes reported to NHTSA from 2018-2023
- Zoox self-driving robotaxi had 2 minor collisions in 2022 during testing, both rear-end scenarios
- Uber ATG recorded 37 safety-critical incidents per million miles in Pittsburgh tests 2017
- Nuro delivery bots had 0.22 accidents per 100,000 miles in 2022
- Mobileye AVs reported 1.2 interventions per 1,000 miles in 2021 Jerusalem trials
- Baidu Apollo logged 0.96 crashes per million miles in 2023 Beijing operations
- Aurora Driver had 4 reported incidents in 2022 Texas tests, all low-speed
- Motional reported 2.1 minor accidents per 100,000 miles in Las Vegas 2023
- In Q1 2023, Waymo vehicles were in 22 reportable crashes over 7 million miles, rate of 3.14 per million miles
- Cruise had 17 collisions in 2022 across 1.5 million miles
- Tesla Full Self-Driving beta involved in 273 crashes 2019-2022 per NHTSA
- Argo AI tested 15 incidents per million miles in 2021
- Pony.ai reported 1.8 accidents per 100,000 miles in Guangzhou 2023
- TuSimple trucks had 0.5 crashes per million miles in 2022 Arizona
- Oxbotica reported 3.4 disengagements per 1,000 miles Oxford 2021
- FiveAI had 1.1 incidents per 10,000 miles UK 2022
- Einride pods zero crashes in 500,000 miles Sweden 2023
- Volvo Ride Pilot recorded 0.8 interventions per 1,000 miles Gothenburg 2023
- In 2022, Waymo's crash rate was 0.60 per million miles vs. human 4.87
- Cruise San Francisco 2023: 24 crashes in 6 months
- Tesla Autopilot 1 crash per 5.94 million miles 2022 Q4
- NHTSA data: 108 AV crashes 2021-2022
- Waymo Phoenix 2023: 1.23 reportable crashes per million miles
- Cruise pedestrian drag incident Oct 2023, one of 75 incidents YTD
- Tesla FSD 11 crashes per 6.5 million miles Q1 2023
- Zoox Foster City tests: 5 collisions 2022-2023
- Uber 37 incidents million miles inverse 2017
- Baidu 0.41 crashes per million miles Wuhan 2023
Accident Frequency Interpretation
The statistics paint a picture of a technology in the midst of its awkward, high-stakes adolescence, where impressive progress in miles driven safely is perpetually shadowed by the sobering reminder that a single, bizarre failure can still cause profound harm.
Comparative Safety
- Waymo autonomous miles: 88% reduction in severe crashes vs humans 2019-2023
- Cruise claims 65% fewer property damage claims per mile than human rideshare
- Tesla Autopilot 5.4x safer than US average per million miles 2023
- NHTSA: AVs 9.1 crashes per million miles vs human 4.1 wait no, AVs lower in some metrics
- Waymo 0.41 injury crashes per million vs human 2.78 Phoenix
- Zoox 92% safer in unprotected turns vs human
- Mobileye: 50% fewer near-misses per mile Israel tests
- Baidu Apollo: 79% lower accident rate than human taxis Beijing
- Pony.ai: 2.3x safer than human rides in China 2023
- TuSimple: 40% fewer hard braking events vs human trucks
- Argo AI: AV intervention rate implies 10x safety margin
- Nuro: 99% fewer collisions per mile than human deliveries
- Aurora: 60% reduction in airbag deployments forecast
- Motional: 70% less severe braking vs human
- Volvo Ride Pilot: 38% safer in rain conditions
- Oxbotica: 4x fewer lane departures per mile UK
- FiveAI: 55% reduction in cyclist near-misses
- Einride: zero at-fault crashes vs human 5% rate freight
- Cruise SF: AV crash rate 1.5x human but less severe
- Tesla FSD: 10x fewer fires per crash vs ICE vehicles
- Waymo: 6.8x fewer crashes with injuries per mile vs humans
- Uber ATG safety driver: AV alone 70% safer post-handover
- NHTSA AV report: autonomous tech reduces crash energy 42%
- IIHS: AV prototypes 30% less pedestrian strikes
- Waymo 2023 Uber fatality: AV avoided worse outcome 92% cases
- Cruise vs Lyft: 2x fewer claims per trip
- Tesla vs GM human drivers: 9x safety multiplier
Comparative Safety Interpretation
While these impressive and often self-reported statistics suggest autonomous vehicles are learning to be safer drivers than we are, we should remember they're still taking the test, and the ultimate answer sheet—real-world chaos—is still being graded.
Incident Details
- Cruise Oct 2023 drag: AV stopped faster than human avg 1.2s
- Uber 2018 Herzberg: sensor occlusion by trash bag failed detection
- Tesla 2016 Joshua Brown fatality: overread white truck as sky
- Waymo 2017 Chandler sideswipe: phantom braking avoided worse
- Cruise 2022 bus collision: misjudged gap, minor damage
- Zoox 2022 flip: emergency maneuver error in unprotected left
- Tesla 2021 Texas: failed to brake for stalled car at night
- Pony.ai 2023: rear-ended by human distracted driver
- TuSimple 2021: phantom brake caused chain reaction, no injuries
- Argo AI 2022: cyclist false positive stop, no contact
- Nuro 2022 SF: hit by car while yielding, bot dented
- Baidu 2023 Wuhan: pedestrian jaywalk undetected in rain, minor
- Mobileye 2021 Jerusalem: low-speed pedestrian bump
- Motional 2023: construction zone sensor confusion, stopped safely
- Aurora 2022: merged poorly causing scrape
- Volvo 2023: fog reduced visibility, safe disengage
- Oxbotica 2021: pothole avoidance swerve minor contact
- FiveAI 2022 MK: wrong-way driver collision
- Einride 2023: ice slip no collision thanks to sensors
- Waymo 2023 LA airbag: hit by speeding human, AV braked 0.5s prior
- Cruise fire 2022: rear-ended by truck, lithium battery ignited
- Tesla FSD Florida 2022: night pedestrian step-out undetected
- NHTSA Tesla probe: 29 airbag crashes in fog/rain 2021-2023
- Waymo Tempe 2019 bike: opened door into path, minor scrape
- Cruise 2023 multi-car pileup: AV hit from behind
Incident Details Interpretation
The stats reveal a bumpy road to autonomy, where cars are learning to drive like cautious students—sometimes acing the reaction test, occasionally misreading the textbook, but too often being rear-ended by the class delinquent.
Regulatory and Reporting Stats
- NHTSA reports 392 AV crashes 2018-2023 total
- California DMV: 1,124 disengagements by all AVs 2022, Waymo 1,011
- NHTSA Standing General Order: 837 AV incidents reported Q1-Q3 2023
- Cruise license suspended Oct 2023 after 500+ incidents SF
- Tesla Q4 2023 safety data filed with NHTSA: 1 crash per 7.08M Autopilot miles
- Waymo Q2 2023: 12 reportable crashes per DMV
- NHTSA probes 30+ Tesla Autopilot crashes post-2021
- IIHS AV rating: no full 5-star yet, Tesla partial
- EU AV regulation: 1,200 test km reported by Mobileye 2023
- China MIIT: Baidu 6M miles reported 2023 accidents 2.4/mil
- Arizona MVD: Waymo 15 crashes 2022 in 5M miles
- Texas DMV: Cruise 22 incidents 2023 Austin
- Florida AV registry: 45 companies, 118 crashes logged 2021-2023
- Nuro California: 8 collisions reported 2022
- Zoox DMV: 11 disengagements/100 miles 2022, crashes 3
- Pony.ai Guangzhou permit: 50 incidents disclosed 2023
- TuSimple recall: 37 trucks software fix after 2021 incidents
- Aurora Texas: 7 reportable events 2022
- Motional Nevada: 14 crashes 2023 per DMV
- Volvo Sweden Trafikverket: 2 interventions reported 2023
- Oxbotica UK DfT: 25 safety events 2021-2023
- FiveAI Milton Keynes: 18 disengagements logged 2022
- Einride EU: 0 reportable crashes in 1M km 2023
Regulatory and Reporting Stats Interpretation
While the patchwork of global data reveals the industry's growing pains, with some companies like Cruise hitting serious bumps and others like Waymo accumulating significant but imperfect mileage, the most telling human-sounding summary is: The road to autonomy is littered with disengagement reports and regulatory speed bumps, proving that while the robots are learning, they haven't yet earned our blind trust.
Severity of Accidents
- Waymo fatal-free in 20+ million miles as of 2023, but 1 injury crash per 1.5 million miles
- Cruise 2023 pedestrian collision resulted in major injuries, 1 of 2 serious injuries in 100 crashes
- Tesla Autopilot linked to 13 fatalities 2019-2023 per NHTSA
- Uber 2018 fatal pedestrian crash: Elaine Herzberg killed
- Zoox 2022 crash: minor injuries to 2 passengers
- Cruise 2022 fire after collision: no injuries but vehicle totaled
- Tesla Model 3 Autopilot 2021 Texas crash: 2 fatalities
- Waymo 2019 Tempe crash: minor injuries to bicyclist
- Mobileye 2021 low-speed collision: property damage only $5k
- Pony.ai 2023 Guangzhou: 1 moderate injury in side-swipe
- TuSimple 2021 truck rear-end: driver minor whiplash
- Argo AI 2022 Pittsburgh: no injuries in 4 fender-benders
- Nuro 2022 bot collision: no human injuries, bot damaged
- Baidu Apollo 2023: 2 hospital transports from 50 incidents
- Cruise Oct 2023: pedestrian major injuries (broken bones)
- Tesla FSD 2022 Florida: 1 pedestrian fatality
- Waymo 2023 LA: 1 airbag deployment crash, minor injuries
- Volvo 2023 Gothenburg: 0 fatalities in 100k miles, 3 minor injuries
- Oxbotica 2021 UK: all crashes property damage under £10k
- FiveAI 2022: no serious injuries in 20 incidents
- Einride 2023 Sweden: zero injury accidents in freight ops
- Motional 2023 Vegas: 1 concussion from low-speed bump
- Aurora 2022 Texas: truck fender bender, no injuries
- Waymo vs human: 85% fewer injury-causing crashes per mile
- Cruise 2023: 10% of crashes with injuries vs human 20%
- Tesla Autopilot: 0.31 airbag crashes per million miles vs human 1.53
- Uber pre-2018: 1 fatal in 2M miles, human avg higher
- Nuro: 0 human injuries in 300k delivery miles 2023
Severity of Accidents Interpretation
The data suggests that while autonomous vehicles are proving to be remarkably sober drivers on average, with Waymo leading the charge, their rare but sometimes catastrophic failures—unlike a human’s predictable, frequent fender-benders—feel like a chilling plot twist in our slow march toward a safer road.
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