With alarming numbers revealing that most prisoners who taste freedom find themselves behind bars again, our justice systems worldwide face a persistent crisis of recidivism that demands urgent understanding.
Key Takeaways
- In a study of 404,638 prisoners released from 30 states in 2005, 67.8% were rearrested within 3 years, with property offenders at 82.1% rearrest rate
- Among the same cohort, 76.6% of released prisoners were rearrested within 5 years
- Violent offenders in the 2005 release cohort had a 3-year rearrest rate of 71.3%
- Federal offenders released in 2005 had 51.2% rearrested within 8 years
- Federal violent offenders 2005 release had 68.7% rearrest rate within 8 years
- Federal drug traffickers released 2005 showed 66.7% rearrested in 8 years
- Juvenile offenders in Florida 2010-2014 had 66% rearrested within 1 year post-release
- National juvenile rearrest rate within 12 months is 55% for delinquents
- 66% of juvenile offenders released from residential facilities rearrested within 12 months per OJJDP
- Adult state prisoners 83% rearrested within 9 years per 2005 BJS 34-state study
- Adults released on parole have 52% return rate within 3 years nationally
- 68% of adults under community supervision violate terms within 3 years
- UK prisoners released 2010 had 46.3% reconvicted within 1 year
- Australia national prisoners 2016-17 59.4% returned to prison within 2 years
- Canada federal offenders 2013-14 38% readmitted within 2 years
Most released prisoners are rearrested, with rates varying by offense and region.
Adult Recidivism General
- Adult state prisoners 83% rearrested within 9 years per 2005 BJS 34-state study
- Adults released on parole have 52% return rate within 3 years nationally
- 68% of adults under community supervision violate terms within 3 years
- Male adults recidivate at 68% vs 57% for females within 3 years
- Blacks 73%, whites 63%, Hispanics 65% 3-year rearrest rates
- Younger adults 24 or younger 78% rearrest vs 55% age 40+
- High school dropouts 72% recidivate vs 44% graduates within 3 years
- Employed at release adults 60% rearrest vs 75% unemployed
- Adults with substance abuse history 70% recidivism rate
- Mental health diagnosed adults 65% rearrest within 3 years
- Adults with 10+ prior arrests pre-release 81% rearrest post-release
- Parole vs mandatory release adults: 50% vs 60% recidivism in 3 years
- Adults serving longer sentences >3 years 62% recidivate vs shorter 70%
- Urban released adults 70% rearrest vs rural 60%
- Adults with gang affiliation 75% recidivism rate within 3 years
- Homeless at release adults 78% rearrest rate
- Adults with family ties 55% recidivate vs no ties 75%
- History of abuse victims among adults 68% recidivism
- Adults participating in prison education 43% recidivate vs 68% non-participants
- Vocational training completers 28% lower recidivism than non
Adult Recidivism General Interpretation
The data paints a stark and sardonic portrait of the "correctional" system, revealing it to be a revolving door that spins most efficiently for those who are young, underemployed, undereducated, lack support, and have been given a master class in criminality rather than genuine rehabilitation.
International Recidivism
- UK prisoners released 2010 had 46.3% reconvicted within 1 year
- Australia national prisoners 2016-17 59.4% returned to prison within 2 years
- Canada federal offenders 2013-14 38% readmitted within 2 years
- Germany released prisoners 2018 had 48% reoffended within 3 years
- France parolees 2017 42% recidivated within 1 year
- Netherlands 2014 prisoners 47% recidivism within 2 years
- Sweden 2017 releases 40% reconvicted within 3 years
- Norway low-security prisoners 20% recidivism vs 46% high-security
- Denmark 2016 29% reincarcerated within 1 year
- New Zealand prisoners 2014-15 65% reconvicted within 12 months
- South Africa parolees 2015 55% recidivated within 5 years
- Japan probationers 2018 30% reoffended within 1 year
- UK sex offenders 2011 14% reconvicted within 1 year vs 9% non-sex
- Australian Indigenous prisoners 70% recidivism vs 45% non-Indigenous in 2 years
- Canadian Indigenous offenders 45% readmission vs 32% non within 2 years
- EU average recidivism 40-60% within 2 years per Eurostat
- Finland 2017 releases 36% recidivated within 2 years
- Belgium prisoners 2016 43% reoffended in 1 year
- Italy community sanctions 2015 25% recidivism rate
- Spain parole 2018 35% returned within 2 years
- Ireland prisoners 2019 45% reconvicted within 1 year
International Recidivism Interpretation
Despite their impressive geographical diversity, these figures stubbornly suggest that modern prison systems, with notable and hopeful exceptions, often function less as a cure for criminality and more as a particularly grim and expensive revolving door.
Juvenile Recidivism
- Juvenile offenders in Florida 2010-2014 had 66% rearrested within 1 year post-release
- National juvenile rearrest rate within 12 months is 55% for delinquents
- 66% of juvenile offenders released from residential facilities rearrested within 12 months per OJJDP
- California juveniles released 2013-2015 had 43.3% recidivism within 12 months
- Texas juvenile probationers 2014 had 24% revoked and committed within 1 year
- New York juvenile justice youth 2012-2016 showed 35% re-arrested within 12 months
- Ohio juveniles 2010 cohort had 50.2% recidivated within 12 months
- Pennsylvania juvenile offenders 2013-2017 had 38% rearrest rate in year 1
- Washington state juveniles 2016 releases 42% recidivated within 18 months
- Multistate juvenile study found 59% rearrest within 1 year for felony adjudicated
- Females juveniles recidivate at 52% vs 58% males within 12 months nationally
- Juvenile drug offenders rearrest 61% within 12 months per multistate data
- Violent juvenile offenders have 66% 1-year recidivism rate
- Property crime juveniles recidivate at 64% within year 1
- Public order offense juveniles 55% rearrested in 12 months
- Status offense juveniles lowest at 47% recidivism in 12 months
Juvenile Recidivism Interpretation
While Florida’s juvenile justice system seems determined to win the recidivism race, the national scoreboard confirms that, regardless of state or crime, we are consistently failing to turn young offenders into former offenders.
Risk Factors Predictors
- History of prior convictions increases recidivism odds by 2.5 times
- Substance use disorder raises recidivism risk by 50%
- Antisocial personality disorder predicts 40% higher recidivism
- Low employment history doubles recidivism probability
- Criminal associates increase risk by 30%
- Family criminality raises odds ratio 1.8 for recidivism
- Low self-control scores predict 25% higher reoffending
- History of violence increases recidivism by 35%
- Poor housing stability at release 45% higher recidivism
- Mental illness without treatment 55% recidivism vs 30% treated
- Age under 25 multiplies risk by 2.2
- Male gender 1.5 odds ratio for recidivism
- Non-white race/ethnicity 1.3 higher risk controlling factors
- No high school diploma 1.6 odds ratio
- Gang membership 2.0 risk multiplier
- Childhood trauma history 1.7 odds for adult recidivism
- Pro-criminal attitudes score high predicts 60% recidivism
- Dynamic risk factors like impulsivity 40% predictive power
- Static factors account for 50% variance in recidivism models
- LSI-R score >30 predicts 70% recidivism probability
- COMPAS algorithm high risk 65% recidivate
Risk Factors Predictors Interpretation
The statistics paint a grim, almost comically predictable portrait: a system that efficiently identifies the deck-stacked odds against someone, yet seems perpetually surprised when those same factors—untreated illness, crippling poverty, a life scripted by trauma and bad company—inevitably lead the same people back through its revolving door.
US Federal Recidivism
- Federal offenders released in 2005 had 51.2% rearrested within 8 years
- Federal violent offenders 2005 release had 68.7% rearrest rate within 8 years
- Federal drug traffickers released 2005 showed 66.7% rearrested in 8 years
- Federal prisoners with prior criminal history had 70% recidivism within 8 years from 2005
- US Sentencing Commission FY2010 federal offenders had 49.3% recidivated within 8 years
- Federal sex offenders 2005-2014 releases had 20.7% rearrest rate within 9 years, lower than others
- Non-production child pornography offenders federally had 28.8% recidivism in 8 years
- Federal firearms offenders 2010 cohort had 70.2% rearrested within 8 years
- US federal drug offenders FY 2014 had 50.1% recidivism rate within 8 years
- BOP releases 2005 federal had 33% returned for violation within 3 years
- Federal violent crime offenders post-2010 had 64.8% rearrest rate
US Federal Recidivism Interpretation
The data paints a grim but nuanced portrait where federal prison often acts as a revolving door, especially for violent and repeat offenders, yet intriguingly, it seems to slam shut a bit more effectively for sex offenders, leaving us to wrestle with the uncomfortable question of whether our system is better at punishing some crimes than preventing others.
US State Recidivism Rates
- In a study of 404,638 prisoners released from 30 states in 2005, 67.8% were rearrested within 3 years, with property offenders at 82.1% rearrest rate
- Among the same cohort, 76.6% of released prisoners were rearrested within 5 years
- Violent offenders in the 2005 release cohort had a 3-year rearrest rate of 71.3%
- Drug offenders from 30 states released in 2005 showed 76.9% rearrest within 3 years
- 83% of property crime prisoners released in 2005 were rearrested within 3 years across 30 states
- In 15 states tracking 1994 releases, 67.5% rearrested within 3 years
- 5-year rearrest rate for 1994 state prisoners was 83% in 15 states
- California state prisoners released in 2005 had 48.9% reincarcerated within 3 years
- Texas released offenders from 2008 showed 37.6% recidivism within 3 years
- Florida's 2014 prison releases had 25.4% reincarcerated within 1 year
- New York state parolees 2010-2012 had 19% rearrested within 1 year
- Ohio's 2012 released prisoners showed 28.7% recidivated within 1 year
- Michigan 2017 releases had 37% returned to prison within 3 years
- Pennsylvania 2006 cohort had 53% rearrested within 3 years
- Virginia's 2010 releases showed 23.7% reincarcerated within 3 years
- Washington state 2015 releases had 31.1% recidivism rate within 2 years
US State Recidivism Rates Interpretation
Our correctional systems appear to be functioning less as a path to rehabilitation and more as a grueling, high-failure-rate revolving door that treats released prisoners like boomerangs with a criminal record.
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