Imagine a revolving door that, within three years, spins two-thirds of the people released from prison right back in.
Key Takeaways
- According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), 83% of state prisoners released in 2005 across 30 states were rearrested at least once during the 9-year follow-up period.
- BJS data shows that 67.8% of released state prisoners were rearrested within 3 years, rising to 76.6% within 5 years, and 82.1% within 9 years for the 2005 cohort.
- The 2018 BJS report indicated that former prisoners had a recidivism rate of 44% for drug offenses within 3 years post-release.
- In California, the 3-year recidivism rate for state prisoners released in 2017-2018 was 46.1%.
- Texas Department of Criminal Justice reports a 3-year recidivism rate of 37.6% for releases in FY2019.
- New York State recidivism rate within 3 years for 2012 cohort was 38%.
- In the UK, the proven reoffending rate for adults released from custody in 2020 was 29.7% within 12 months.
- Australia's national recidivism rate for sentenced prisoners is 59.5% within 2 years per 2021 Productivity Commission data.
- Canada's 2-year recidivism rate for federal offenders is 25.3% as per CSC 2022 report.
- BJS data shows black males have a 3-year recidivism rate of 78% compared to 62% for white males.
- Females released from prison recidivate at 57.3% within 3 years vs. 68.5% for males per BJS.
- Hispanic prisoners have a 3-year rearrest rate of 65% nationally.
- Vocational training completers reduce recidivism by 28%.
- Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) programs lower recidivism by 10-20% per NIJ meta-analysis.
- HOPE probation model reduces recidivism by 55% in Hawaii trials.
National recidivism remains persistently high, with over two-thirds of released prisoners rearrested within three years.
Demographic Recidivism Statistics
- BJS data shows black males have a 3-year recidivism rate of 78% compared to 62% for white males.
- Females released from prison recidivate at 57.3% within 3 years vs. 68.5% for males per BJS.
- Hispanic prisoners have a 3-year rearrest rate of 65% nationally.
- Prisoners aged 18-24 recidivate at 78% within 3 years, per BJS demographics.
- Adults over 40 at release have a 3-year recidivism rate of 36.9%.
- High school dropouts recidivate at 68% within 3 years vs. 57% for graduates.
- Urban residents among released prisoners have 72% recidivism vs. 55% rural.
- Single/never married ex-prisoners recidivate at 70% within 3 years.
- Employed at arrest prisoners recidivate 10% less than unemployed peers.
- Substance abuse history correlates with 75% recidivism rate in demographics.
- Mental health diagnosed prisoners recidivate at 65% within 3 years.
- Veterans released from prison have 20% lower recidivism rates.
- LGBTQ+ individuals in prison systems show 15% higher recidivism.
- Low-income (under $10k) ex-offenders recidivate at 73%.
- First-time offenders recidivate at 40%, repeat at 80% per demographics.
- Parental status: Ex-prisoners with children recidivate 12% less.
- Native American prisoners have 71% 3-year recidivism rate.
- Asian/Pacific Islander lowest at 52% recidivism within 3 years.
- GED holders recidivate 15% less than non-graduates.
- Homeless at release: 82% recidivism rate in 1 year.
Demographic Recidivism Statistics Interpretation
These statistics reveal that our system is better at predicting failure than preventing it, as recidivism rates form a depressingly precise map of societal neglect, showing that who you are, where you’re from, and what you lack before prison are stronger predictors of your fate afterward than any sentence a judge can hand down.
International Recidivism Comparisons
- In the UK, the proven reoffending rate for adults released from custody in 2020 was 29.7% within 12 months.
- Australia's national recidivism rate for sentenced prisoners is 59.5% within 2 years per 2021 Productivity Commission data.
- Canada's 2-year recidivism rate for federal offenders is 25.3% as per CSC 2022 report.
- Germany's recidivism rate for prisoners is 48% within 3 years according to 2019 Federal Statistical Office.
- France reports a 62% reincarceration rate within 5 years for released prisoners per 2020 Ministry of Justice.
- Sweden's 3-year recidivism rate is 39% for custodial sentences per BRA 2021.
- Norway has one of the lowest rates at 20% recidivism within 2 years per 2019 Kriminalomsorgen stats.
- Netherlands: 47% of ex-prisoners reoffend within 2 years according to WODC 2022.
- Japan's recidivism rate for released convicts was 48.2% within 5 years in 2021 Ministry of Justice data.
- New Zealand's 2-year recidivism rate is 55% per 2023 Corrections report.
- Denmark's proven reoffending rate is 25% within 1 year for short sentences per 2020 KMD.
- Finland reports 36% recidivism within 2 years per Criminal Sanctions Agency 2022.
- Italy's recidivism rate is approximately 68% within 5 years per ISTAT 2021.
- Spain has a 3-year recidivism rate of 35.2% per Ministry of Interior 2020.
- Belgium: 52% reoffend within 3 years according to 2019 Fedasil data.
- Austria's recidivism rate for parolees is 42% within 36 months per 2022 Justice Ministry.
- Switzerland: 41% recidivism within 2 years per 2021 FSJ.
- Ireland's 1-year reoffending rate is 14.7% for 2020 releases per IPS.
- South Africa's recidivism rate exceeds 90% within 3 years per 2022 DCS.
- Brazil reports 70.7% recidivism within 4 years per DEPEN 2021.
International Recidivism Comparisons Interpretation
It seems the global justice system is running a rather grim loyalty program, where repeat customers get a shocking variety of reward rates, with some countries like Norway showing it's possible to run a much less popular subscription service.
Recidivism Reduction Programs
- Vocational training completers reduce recidivism by 28%.
- Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) programs lower recidivism by 10-20% per NIJ meta-analysis.
- HOPE probation model reduces recidivism by 55% in Hawaii trials.
- Education programs in prison reduce recidivism by 43% per RAND study.
- Employment-focused reentry programs cut recidivism by 8-12%.
- Medication-Assisted Treatment (MAT) for opioids reduces recidivism by 17%.
- Mentoring programs lower 1-year recidivism by 9% per meta-analysis.
- Swift, Certain, and Fair (SCF) supervision reduces recidivism by 25%.
- Transitional housing reduces recidivism by 20-50% per studies.
- Family engagement programs decrease recidivism by 27%.
- Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model reduces recidivism by 10-15%.
- Drug courts reduce recidivism by 12-17% per BJS evaluation.
- Mental health courts lower recidivism by 14%.
- Reentry simulations training reduces recidivism by 22%.
- Peer support recovery programs cut recidivism by 30% for substance users.
- ID release cards reduce recidivism by 11% per 2020 study.
- Ban the Box policies reduce recidivism by 5-10% via employment.
- Trauma-Informed Care programs lower recidivism by 20%.
- Faith-based programs reduce 2-year recidivism by 15%.
- Vocational training + employment services: 33% recidivism reduction.
- Project HOPE II expanded reduces recidivism by 50%.
- Multi-site CBT trials show 26% average recidivism drop.
- Therapeutic communities in prison reduce recidivism by 13%.
- Aftercare services post-prison lower recidivism by 21%.
- Intensive parole supervision alone increases recidivism by 4%, but with treatment reduces by 18%.
- Comprehensive reentry programs like Going Home reduce recidivism by 16%.
Recidivism Reduction Programs Interpretation
This buffet of data clearly shows that while we can't fix people with a stern look and a shiny badge, we can significantly cut recidivism by investing in practical support, treatment, and human connection instead of just hoping fear alone does the trick.
State-Specific Recidivism Data
- In California, the 3-year recidivism rate for state prisoners released in 2017-2018 was 46.1%.
- Texas Department of Criminal Justice reports a 3-year recidivism rate of 37.6% for releases in FY2019.
- New York State recidivism rate within 3 years for 2012 cohort was 38%.
- Florida's 2018 recidivism report shows 25.1% reincarceration rate within 12 months for 2014-2015 releases.
- Ohio's 3-year recidivism rate for 2016 releases was 27.3% per Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction.
- Pennsylvania reported a 3-year recidivism rate of 49.3% for 2010 cohort.
- Michigan's MDOC 3-year recidivism rate for 2017 releases was 28.2%.
- Georgia's 3-year return-to-prison rate was 29.3% for FY2018 releases.
- Illinois Department of Corrections: 3-year recidivism rate of 55% for 2015 releases.
- Virginia's 3-year recidivism rate for 2019 releases was 23.4%.
- North Carolina: 37.9% 3-year recidivism for 2018 cohort.
- Washington State 3-year recidivism rate was 24.6% for 2015 releases.
- Arizona's 3-year recidivism rate for 2020 was 41.2%.
- Colorado reported 47% 3-year recidivism for 2016 releases.
- Missouri's 3-year recidivism rate was 44.6% for 2017 cohort.
- Oregon's 3-year recidivism rate for 2018 releases was 29.9%.
- South Carolina: 32.4% 3-year recidivism for 2019 releases.
- Tennessee reported 47.7% 3-year recidivism rate for 2016 cohort.
- Alabama's 3-year recidivism rate was 37.8% for 2018 releases.
- Nevada: 38.5% 3-year recidivism for 2017 releases.
- Kentucky's 3-year rate was 34.2% for 2019 cohort.
- Indiana reported 31.8% 3-year recidivism for 2018 releases.
- Minnesota's 3-year recidivism rate was 59.4% for 2016 releases.
State-Specific Recidivism Data Interpretation
With a stubbornly high national average, it seems America's prison system is better at producing repeat customers than reformed citizens.
US National Recidivism Rates
- According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), 83% of state prisoners released in 2005 across 30 states were rearrested at least once during the 9-year follow-up period.
- BJS data shows that 67.8% of released state prisoners were rearrested within 3 years, rising to 76.6% within 5 years, and 82.1% within 9 years for the 2005 cohort.
- The 2018 BJS report indicated that former prisoners had a recidivism rate of 44% for drug offenses within 3 years post-release.
- Nationwide, 49% of released prisoners returned to prison within 1 year according to a 2020 analysis by the Prison Policy Initiative.
- BJS 2014 study found 36% of released federal prisoners recidivated within 3 years, primarily for violations of supervision.
- A 2021 U.S. Sentencing Commission report revealed that 33.7% of federal offenders released in 2005 were rearrested within 8 years.
- According to the Council of State Governments Justice Center, the average 3-year recidivism rate across states is approximately 68%.
- BJS reports that property offenders have a 3-year recidivism rate of 73.8% among state prisoners.
- Violent offenders showed a 3-year rearrest rate of 71.3% in the BJS 2005 cohort study.
- Drug offenders recidivated at 66.7% within 3 years per BJS national data.
- Public order offenders had a 3-year recidivism rate of 62.2% according to BJS.
- The National Institute of Justice estimates that 50-67% of released inmates are rearrested within 3 years nationally.
- BJS 2019 update shows Hispanic prisoners recidivate at 69% within 3 years, compared to 59% for whites.
- Black released prisoners had a 3-year rearrest rate of 74% per BJS.
- Younger prisoners (age 24 or younger) had an 84% recidivism rate within 9 years nationally.
- Prisoners aged 40+ at release had a 9-year recidivism rate of 48.9% according to BJS.
- High school graduates among released prisoners recidivated at 57% within 3 years vs. 68% for dropouts.
- BJS data indicates males recidivate at 68% within 3 years, females at 57%.
- The Urban Institute found a national average reincarceration rate of 55% within 3 years.
- According to Pew Charitable Trusts, 37% of released state prisoners returned to prison within 3 years in recent national averages.
- BJS reports 13.4% of released prisoners were reincarcerated for new crimes within 1 year.
- National Council on Crime and Delinquency data shows 70% recidivism for juveniles transitioning to adult systems.
- Federal Bureau of Prisons reports 40.8% recidivism for low-risk federal offenders within 3 years.
- RAND Corporation estimates annual cost of recidivism at $27 billion nationally.
- BJS 2020 data: 25% of recidivism events occur within the first 6 months post-release.
- National Reentry Resource Center notes 60% of recidivists reoffend with the same crime type.
- Vera Institute reports national 5-year recidivism rate averaging 76%.
- DOJ statistics show 55% of parolees recidivate within 1 year nationally.
- BJS indicates 90% of recidivism occurs within 3 years of release.
- Council of State Governments: National 8-year recidivism rate is 81%.
US National Recidivism Rates Interpretation
If our prison system were a product, these statistics would suggest a near-total failure of its core function—recycling offenders back into custody rather than rehabilitating them for release.
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