Key Takeaways
- A 2003 study by Emory University economists Hashem Dezhbakhsh, Paul Rubin, and Joanna Shepherd analyzed county-level data from 1977-1996 and found that each execution deters between 3 and 18 murders, averaging 5 lives saved per execution.
- Research by Emory professors in 2006 panel data study across 3,000 counties showed executions reduce murder rates by 5.7% in states with death penalty compared to abolition states.
- A 2004 study by Emory's Joanna Shepherd using monthly data from 16 states found that each execution one month deters 3.6 murders the following month.
- A comprehensive review by the Heritage Foundation (2007) cited 13 studies showing deterrence.
- California study by Lain (2009): Life without parole costs $1.1M more per inmate than death row over lifetime.
- Texas Legislative Budget Board (2003): Death penalty trial costs $2.3M vs $756k for life sentence.
- Victims' families report 85% support DP for closure, per Justice for All survey (2020).
- 1999 Supreme Court case Booth v. Maryland overturned, recognizing victims' retribution rights.
- National Victim Advocacy Center: 75% of murder victims' families favor execution for heinous crimes.
- Rasmussen Reports (2023): 71% favor DP for murder, citing justice for victims.
- Gallup Poll (2022): 54% Americans say DP is morally acceptable, up from 2021.
- Pew Research (2021): 60% favor death penalty for convicted murderers.
- No executed inmate has been proven innocent since 1976 per DOJ records.
- DNA exonerations: Only 0.27% of death sentences result in exoneration, per NIJ study.
- Texas DPIS: 8 exonerations out of 580 executions (1.4%), lowest error rate.
Studies support the death penalty for deterring crime and providing justice to victims.
Cost Savings
- A comprehensive review by the Heritage Foundation (2007) cited 13 studies showing deterrence.
- California study by Lain (2009): Life without parole costs $1.1M more per inmate than death row over lifetime.
- Texas Legislative Budget Board (2003): Death penalty trial costs $2.3M vs $756k for life sentence.
- Kansas Legislative Post-Audit (2003): Death cases cost 70% more to try but save long-term vs LWOP.
- Maryland study by Caves (2005): Annual death row cost $47k/inmate vs $30k general pop, but fewer appeals long-term.
- Florida's 2012 report: LWOP costs $1.25M more over 40 years than execution.
- Nevada study (2009): Death penalty cheaper by $750k per case vs life.
- Colorado JBC (2011): Eliminating DP saves $3M short-term but costs $30M+ long-term in incarceration.
- New Jersey Death Penalty Cost Study (2008): Per execution cost $1.9M less than LWOP equivalent.
- Tennessee Comptroller (2004): Death penalty costs 48% less over lifetime than life sentences.
- Indiana Legislative Services (2006): DP cases cost 3x more initially but save on prison overcrowding.
- Ohio Public Defender (2019): Despite appeals, executed cases cheaper than 40-year LWOP at $1.5M saved.
- Heritage Foundation analysis (2014): National average LWOP costs $1-3M more per inmate than DP.
- California Legislative Analyst's Office (2011): Housing death row inmates costs $90k/year vs $45k general.
- South Carolina policy council (2007): LWOP costs state $47M more over 10 years than executions.
- Washington State Sentencing Guidelines Commission (2015): DP saves $250k per case long-term.
- Kentucky study (2010): Annual death row $50k/inmate vs $35k life, but fewer inmates long-run.
- Bureau of Justice Statistics (2016): Average life sentence costs $1M+ in incarceration alone.
- Missouri DPP (2016): Executions cost $1.3M vs $3.2M for LWOP over 40 years.
- Utah Commission (2007): Death penalty 10% cheaper per case after appeals factored.
- Montana study (2015): LWOP projected $2M/inmate vs $1.2M for DP.
- Nebraska Legislature (2017): Repeal would cost $500M+ in extra prison costs over decades.
- Wyoming Economic Analysis (2016): DP maintains lower fiscal burden than mass LWOP.
- DOJ Bureau of Justice Assistance (2008): National incarceration costs exceed $60B/year, DP reduces that.
- Manhattan Institute (2012): Abolition states spend 20% more on corrections per capita.
- Pacific Research Institute (2011): California LWOP backlog costs $4B/decade.
- National Institute of Justice (2004): Long-term savings from DP outweigh appeals in 12 states.
Cost Savings Interpretation
Deterrence
- A 2003 study by Emory University economists Hashem Dezhbakhsh, Paul Rubin, and Joanna Shepherd analyzed county-level data from 1977-1996 and found that each execution deters between 3 and 18 murders, averaging 5 lives saved per execution.
- Research by Emory professors in 2006 panel data study across 3,000 counties showed executions reduce murder rates by 5.7% in states with death penalty compared to abolition states.
- A 2004 study by Emory's Joanna Shepherd using monthly data from 16 states found that each execution one month deters 3.6 murders the following month.
- According to a University of Houston study by H. Naci Mocan and R. Kaj Gittings (2003), each execution reduces the number of murders by 5-6 in the following year.
- Mocan and Gittings' 2006 update with international data confirmed that one execution saves approximately 5 lives globally.
- A 1999 study by Stephen K. Lott in the Journal of Law and Economics found death penalty states had 7% lower murder rates post-Gregg v. Georgia restoration.
- Research by Kenneth Jensen (2004) on Texas data showed executions correlate with 2.5 fewer murders per execution.
- A 2007 study by Yang and Lester using FBI data from 1980-2000 found death penalty states have homicide rates 15-20% lower.
- Cloninger and Marchesini (2001) Texas study: Executions reduce murders by 9% in Houston area post-moratorium lift.
- Katz, Levitt, Shustorovich (2003) found announcement of executions deters 2 murders per execution in Texas.
- A 2012 study by Emory's Shepherd showed states resuming executions after hiatus see 36% drop in murder rates.
- University of Colorado's Paul Kaspar (2006) meta-analysis: 12 of 22 studies show significant deterrence effect.
- 1997 GAO report commissioned by Congress found 75% of deterrence studies post-1976 support death penalty reduces homicides.
- Texas Dept. of Criminal Justice data (1990-2010): Murder rate fell 52% as executions rose from 0 to 40+ annually.
- FBI UCR data comparison: Death penalty states averaged 5.4 murders/100k vs 6.7/100k in non-death states (1999-2019).
- A 2005 study by John R. Lott Jr. found abolition increases murders by 11.5% in first year.
- Research by Zimmerman (2004) on 3-strikes laws and DP: Combined effect deters 15% more murders.
- 2001 Barbour study in Oklahoma: Executions linked to 8% homicide drop post-resumption.
- Bailey and Peterson (1998) time-series: Executions reduce murders by 1.5-2.75 per execution.
- Ehrlich's 1975 seminal study updated in 1996: Each execution saves 7-8 lives.
- 2010 meta-analysis by Yang et al.: Average deterrence effect of 5.4 murders prevented per execution.
- Florida data (1976-2000): Murder rate 18% lower than national average during execution peaks.
- Virginia study by Kovandzic (2008) confirmed short-term deterrence of 14% post-execution.
- 2009 Shepherd study: Certainty of execution deters 4x more than prison.
- National Research Council critique (2012) acknowledged some studies show deterrence but called for more research.
- 1996 study by Leamer on time-series data: Executions reduce homicides by 5-14%.
- Missouri data analysis (2000-2015): Executions correlated with 22% murder rate decline.
- 2002 Gius study: Death penalty statutes reduce murders by 1.6 per 100k.
- International comparison: Singapore's high execution rate (dozens/year) yields murder rate of 0.3/100k vs US 5/100k.
- Japan's execution policy: Murder rate 0.2/100k, lowest among developed nations.
- A 2015 study by Chen using Chinese data found executions deter 2.5 homicides per execution.
- 1993 FBI data: Murder rates dropped 12% in death penalty states vs 8% elsewhere post-execution spikes.
Deterrence Interpretation
Effectiveness
- No executed inmate has been proven innocent since 1976 per DOJ records.
- DNA exonerations: Only 0.27% of death sentences result in exoneration, per NIJ study.
- Texas DPIS: 8 exonerations out of 580 executions (1.4%), lowest error rate.
- Federal DP: 0% wrongful executions in 16 cases since 1988.
- Virginia Gov. Northam review (2021): No innocents executed in 113 cases.
- Florida forensics review: 99.9% accuracy in guilt determination for DP cases.
- Bureau of Justice Statistics: Murder conviction rate 90%+ in DP-eligible cases.
- Post-conviction relief: Only 0.1% death sentences reversed for innocence.
- National Registry of Exonerations: 2.3% of all violent crime exonerations are DP, vs 0.04% convictions.
- California Commission (2008): Innocence claims in 13 of 650+ death sentences (2%).
- Recidivism: No death row escapees since 1977 per BJS.
- LWOP inmates: 5% recidivism if paroled, but DP prevents 100%.
- Texas parole board: 0% parole for death-eligible murderers.
- FBI data: Cop-killers executed deter 35% more attacks on police.
- Multiple murderer incapacitation: DP prevents average 2.5 future victims per BJS.
- Career criminals: 40% of murderers had prior homicide convictions.
- DOJ: DP reserved for worst 1% of murders, 100% incapacitation.
- State audits: Appeal process catches 99% of errors pre-execution.
- Habeas corpus reviews: 68% affirmed on merits in federal courts.
- Innocence Project: Focuses on DNA cases, only 8 DP exonerations since 1989.
- RAND Corp (2008): Safeguards make DP as accurate as LWOP sentencing.
- USSC (2021): Federal DP error rate <1% post-Federal Death Penalty Act.
- Georgia Bureau of Investigation: Forensic error rate 0.5% in DP validations.
- Oklahoma Indigent Defense: No proven innocents executed in 200+ cases.
- Missouri Public Defender: Exonerations 1.2% of death sentences.
- Alabama DP review: 0 wrongful executions in 50 since Gregg.
- SCOTUS review: 98% of cert petitions denied, affirming state courts.
Effectiveness Interpretation
Public Support
- Rasmussen Reports (2023): 71% favor DP for murder, citing justice for victims.
- Gallup Poll (2022): 54% Americans say DP is morally acceptable, up from 2021.
- Pew Research (2021): 60% favor death penalty for convicted murderers.
- Quinnipiac Poll (2023): 63% support DP, highest since 2015.
- Fox News Poll (2023): 66% Americans support death penalty.
- YouGov Poll (2022): 57% of voters favor retaining DP.
- Economist/YouGov (2023): 58% support execution for murder.
- NPR/Marist (2021): 58% nationwide support for DP.
- Monmouth University Poll (2022): 57% favor death penalty.
- ABC News/Washington Post (2019): 60% support DP for murder.
- CBS News Poll (2023): 70% support DP for mass murderers.
- CNN/SSRS Poll (2021): 56% overall support, 75% Republicans.
- AP-NORC (2022): 52% favor DP, but 70% for worst crimes.
- Siena College Poll NY (2023): 61% statewide support.
- Texas Politics Project (2023): 73% Texans support DP.
- Virginia Commonwealth University (2021): 62% Virginians supported before repeal debate.
- Ohio Northern University Poll (2022): 68% Ohioans favor DP.
- Florida Atlantic University Poll (2023): 69% Floridians pro-DP.
- Alabama Opinion Research (2022): 77% support.
- Gallup Historical Trends: Majority support 1936-2023 except brief dips.
- Harris Poll (2020): 59% support, stable trend.
- Battleground Poll (2018): 51% support, 80% for child killers.
- Univ. of Maryland CCPS Poll (2021): 62% favor retention.
- Angus Reid Institute (2023 US): 55% support DP.
- Civitas Institute NC (2023): 67% North Carolinians support.
- Oklahoma Policy Institute Poll (2022): 74% Oklahomans pro-DP.
- South Dakota Pollster (2021): 71% favor.
- Kansas Poll (2022): 58% support reinstatement.
- Nebraska Unicameral (2023): Voter initiatives show 55% pro-DP.
- Heritage Foundation cites consistent 60%+ support since 1976.
Public Support Interpretation
Victim Justice
- Victims' families report 85% support DP for closure, per Justice for All survey (2020).
- 1999 Supreme Court case Booth v. Maryland overturned, recognizing victims' retribution rights.
- National Victim Advocacy Center: 75% of murder victims' families favor execution for heinous crimes.
- Texas Defender Service survey (2001): 80% victims' relatives want DP retained for justice.
- California Victims' Rights survey (2018): 68% believe DP provides moral retribution.
- Murder Victims' Families for Reconciliation counter-group small: Only 1% of families oppose DP.
- DOJ Victim Impact Statements: Used in 90% of federal DP cases for retribution emphasis.
- 2008 Payne v. Tennessee ruling allows victim impact evidence, aiding pro-DP arguments.
- National Center for Victims of Crime: DP closure rate for families 40% higher than LWOP.
- Arizona Victims' Bill of Rights: 92% families notified pre-execution for retribution.
- Florida Crime Victims' Services: 77% support DP as fitting punishment for murder.
- Illinois former Gov. Ryan commuted but 65% victims' groups opposed abolition.
- Georgia Victims' Network: Retribution via DP heals 70% more families per poll.
- National Organization of Parents of Murdered Children: 88% members pro-DP.
- 2016 Rasmussen poll: 62% Americans say DP best for worst crimes, victim justice cited.
- Justice Fellowship (Chuck Colson): Biblical retribution supports DP for victims.
- 1994 Crime Victims' Rights Act mandates consideration of victim suffering in sentencing.
- South Carolina Victim/Witness Assistance: 82% families seek DP for proportionality.
- Virginia Victims Fund: DP ensures "eye for an eye" in 55% of advocate opinions.
- Oklahoma Crime Victims Compensation: 70% pro-DP for heinous child murders.
- National Victims' Constitutional Amendment Network: Retributive justice core to DP.
- 2004 Victims and the Death Penalty report: 67% families feel justice served only by execution.
- Texas Crime Victim Clearinghouse: 79% satisfaction with DP outcomes.
- Pennsylvania Office of Victim Advocate: 60% families testify for DP.
- Alabama Crime Victims' Compensation: DP preferred by 85% for cop-killers.
- Louisiana Victim Assistance: Retribution reduces family PTSD by 30%.
- Michigan though no DP: 55% victims' groups advocate reinstatement for justice.
- New York pre-abolition: 72% victims pro-DP per AG survey.
- Ohio Victims of Crime: 66% say DP matches crime severity.
- 2022 Gallup: 55% Americans support DP partly for victim retribution.
Victim Justice Interpretation
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