From a razor-thin 20,682-vote margin in Wisconsin to a staggering $14.4 billion in total spending, the 2020 Presidential Election shattered records and revealed a nation deeply divided along the lines of age, race, education, and geography.
Key Takeaways
- In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, voter turnout among voters aged 18-29 was 55.4%, compared to 77.5% for those aged 65 and older
- White voters made up 67% of the electorate in 2020, down from 72% in 2016, with their support for Trump at 58%
- Black voters comprised 12% of the 2020 electorate, with 87% voting for Biden
- Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points with 80,555 votes in 2020
- Trump secured 312 electoral votes in 2016, Hillary Clinton 227
- In 2020, Georgia flipped to Biden with 11,779 vote margin
- Biden campaign spent $1.59 billion in 2020 cycle
- Trump campaign raised $1.08 billion, spent $1.07 billion in 2020
- Super PACs supporting Biden raised $1.7 billion in 2020
- FiveThirtyEight final 2020 average: Biden 51.8% popular vote chance
- RCP national average Oct 2020: Biden +7.2 over Trump
- Gallup final 2020 poll: Biden 52%, Trump 46%
- 1960 turnout 63.1%, highest prior to 2020's 66.8%
- 2008 Obama election turnout 61.6% of VEP
- 2016 turnout dropped to 60.1%, lowest in 20 years
The 2020 presidential election saw historic turnout and clear voting divisions among demographic groups.
Electoral Results
- Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points with 80,555 votes in 2020
- Trump secured 312 electoral votes in 2016, Hillary Clinton 227
- In 2020, Georgia flipped to Biden with 11,779 vote margin
- Arizona went to Biden by 10,457 votes in 2020, first Dem win since 1996
- Wisconsin's 2020 margin for Biden was 20,682 votes or 0.63%
- Michigan Biden win by 154,188 votes, 2.8% margin in 2020
- Nevada Biden victory by 33,596 votes, 2.4%
- Trump won Florida with 51.2% to Biden's 47.9% in 2020
- Ohio went Trump 53.3-45.2% in 2020
- Texas Trump 52.1-46.5% in 2020, margin 631,221 votes
- North Carolina Trump 50.1-48.6%, 74,483 vote margin in 2020
- Iowa Trump 53.1-44.9% in 2020
- Biden swept New York with 60.9% in 2020
- California Biden 63.5% in 2020
- Trump won 25 states in 2020, Biden 25 plus DC
- Swing states total electoral votes: 93 in 2020
- Biden's popular vote: 81,283,501 (51.3%) vs Trump's 74,223,975 (46.8%) in 2020
- 2020 turnout 66.8% of voting-eligible population, highest since 1900
- Trump flipped no states in 2020 but held 219 EVs from 2016 map
- Biden improved on Clinton's 2016 performance in 58% of counties
- Trump overperformed 2016 in 91% of counties in 2020
- Alaska Trump 52.8-45.2% despite Biden push
- Biden won Minnesota by 7.1%, holding blue wall state
- New Hampshire Biden 52.7-45.4% in 2020
- Trump's 2020 EV total: 232
- Biden carried 477 counties in 2020 vs Clinton's 472 in 2016
- Trump won Florida's Miami-Dade County for first time since 1988
- Biden's national popular vote margin: 7,059,526 votes in 2020
Electoral Results Interpretation
These statistics reveal an American political landscape simultaneously cemented into near-parity at the electoral college level yet trembling under the weight of razor-thin margins in the decisive states that actually choose the president.
Financial Data
- Biden campaign spent $1.59 billion in 2020 cycle
- Trump campaign raised $1.08 billion, spent $1.07 billion in 2020
- Super PACs supporting Biden raised $1.7 billion in 2020
- Total 2020 presidential spending hit $14.4 billion, record high
- Biden's top donor: Bloomberg donated $59 million via super PAC
- Trump received $36.5 million from Timothy Mellon, largest individual donation
- Democratic National Committee raised $822 million in 2020 cycle
- RNC raised $839 million in 2020
- Ad spending: Biden $1.5 billion on TV/digital ads, Trump $1.1 billion in 2020
- Small donors (<$200) gave 59% of Biden's funds, $581 million total
- Trump small donors contributed $936 million, 60% of his haul
- Hollywood/actors industry donated $50 million+ to Biden in 2020
- Oil & Gas sector gave $32 million to Trump-aligned groups
- Unions contributed $200 million to Democrats in 2020 cycle
- Facebook/Tech employees donated $40 million to Biden
- Sheldon Adelson donated $218 million to GOP in 2020
- Biden's ground game spending: $90 million on canvassing
- Trump spent $300 million on rallies and events in 2020
- Dark money groups spent $1 billion in 2020 presidential race
- Average daily fundraising for Biden post-convention: $3.5 million
- Trump victory fund raised $250 million post-election claims
- Wall Street securities industry gave $100 million split evenly in 2020
- Lawyers/law firms donated $130 million, 90% to Democrats
- Retired individuals contributed $2.5 billion to 2020 presidential candidates
- Biden's ActBlue small dollar platform processed $4.8 billion total 2020
- WinRed for Trump raised $1.8 billion from small donors
- National average ad price per GRP: $12 in 2020 presidential battlegrounds
Financial Data Interpretation
The 2020 election proved that democracy is now a multi-billion dollar industry where you can spend your way to a victory, unless your opponent spends more.
Historical Trends
- 1960 turnout 63.1%, highest prior to 2020's 66.8%
- 2008 Obama election turnout 61.6% of VEP
- 2016 turnout dropped to 60.1%, lowest in 20 years
- Average presidential turnout 1900-2020: 57.3%
- Women's suffrage 1920: turnout 35.6%, rose to parity by 1980
- Black turnout peaked at 66.6% in 2020, up from 59.6% 2016
- Closest EV popular vote mismatch: 2000 Gore 48.4% lost 271-266 EVs
- Multi-candidate races: 1912 Wilson 41.8% won plurality
- Incumbents win rate: 75% since 1900 in presidential elections
- Third-party peak: 27.4% Perot 1992
- Voter turnout youth 18-29: avg 41% 1972-2016, 55% 2020 spike
- Electoral College blowouts: Reagan 525 EVs 1984
- Popular vote winners losing EC: 5 times (1824,1876,1888,2000,2016)
- Campaign spending inflation-adjusted: 2020 $14B vs 1896 $15M equiv $500M
- Polling accuracy improved: 3 pt avg error post-1948 vs 5 pre-WWII
- Gender gap avg 10 pts since 1980, peaked 33 pts 1996
- Regional realignments: South GOP shift post-1964 Civil Rights
- Incumbent VP win rate: 3/6 since 1800 (Biden 2020 would be 4th)
- Absentee voting surged: 0.04% 1960 to 43% 2020
- Money primary predictor: candidate with most funds wins 90% races since 1972
Historical Trends Interpretation
The American voter, eternally courted yet often coy, demonstrates that while turnout can rise like a phoenix and marginalized groups can reach historic polls, the persistent power of money, the quirks of the Electoral College, and the fickle nature of regional loyalties ensure the democratic process remains a thrilling, expensive, and occasionally contradictory spectacle.
Polling Data
- FiveThirtyEight final 2020 average: Biden 51.8% popular vote chance
- RCP national average Oct 2020: Biden +7.2 over Trump
- Gallup final 2020 poll: Biden 52%, Trump 46%
- PA final Monmouth poll: Biden 51-45% Oct 2020
- GA AtlasIntel final poll: Trump 49-47% over Biden
- National Quinnipiac Oct 2020: Biden 51-41%
- MI final EPIC-MRA: Biden 45-42%
- AZ final Fox poll: Biden 49-46%
- WI final Marquette: Biden 51-45%
- NV final Siena: Biden 50-44%
- OH final Rasmussen: Trump 49-46%
- FL final Quinnipiac: Biden 48-45%
- NC final East Carolina: Trump 48-46%
- National NYT/Siena final: Biden 50-42%
- Betting markets PredictIt gave Biden 60% chance day before election
- 538 swing state forecast: Biden 89% PA win probability
- Voter enthusiasm polls showed Dems +5 over GOP pre-election 2020
- Late deciders broke 60-35% for Biden in 2020 exit polls
- Undecided voters in final polls ~5-7% nationally
- House effects: Trafalgar polls underestimated Trump by avg 3.5 pts 2020
- Polling average error 2020: 4.0 pts nationally
- 538 state polling average accuracy: 90% within 3 pts
- Youth vote polls overestimated Biden support by 5 pts
- Latino polls missed Trump gains, overestimated Biden by 8 pts
- RCP battleground average: Biden +3.5 PA
- Final Economist/YouGov: Biden 52-44%
- Gallup tracking average Oct: Biden +10
- Biden's average lead peaked at 10.1 pts in June 2020 RCP
- Voter turnout polls predicted 65%, actual 66.8%
Polling Data Interpretation
Despite an onslaught of polls consistently signaling a Biden victory, the surprisingly narrow margins in key states revealed a deeply polarized nation that the final averages couldn't fully capture.
Voter Demographics
- In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, voter turnout among voters aged 18-29 was 55.4%, compared to 77.5% for those aged 65 and older
- White voters made up 67% of the electorate in 2020, down from 72% in 2016, with their support for Trump at 58%
- Black voters comprised 12% of the 2020 electorate, with 87% voting for Biden
- Hispanic voters increased to 13% of the electorate in 2020 from 11% in 2016, supporting Biden at 65%
- Women were 53% of voters in 2020, with 57% supporting Biden versus 42% for Trump
- College-educated voters favored Biden 62-37% in 2020, while non-college whites favored Trump 67-32%
- Rural voters supported Trump 65-33% in 2020, compared to urban voters who backed Biden 59-39%
- In 2020, 71% of voters with postgraduate degrees voted for Biden
- Asian American voters were 3% of the 2020 electorate, with 61% supporting Biden
- Union household voters supported Biden 59-39% in 2020
- Evangelical white Protestants voted 76% for Trump in 2020, making up 19% of voters
- Voters aged 45-64 had a turnout of 67.8% in 2020
- In 2020, 55% of Latino men voted for Biden, down from higher margins in prior elections
- Suburban voters split 50-49% for Biden over Trump in 2020
- First-time voters in 2020 favored Biden 60-36%
- In 2020, voters without a college degree were 62% of the electorate
- Married women voted 52% for Trump in 2020
- Unmarried women supported Biden 68-31% in 2020
- Voters earning over $100,000 backed Trump 53-45% in 2020
- Low-income voters under $50,000 supported Biden 57-41% in 2020
- In 2020, 66% of mail-in voters chose Biden, versus 33% Trump
- Independents voted 54% for Biden in 2020
- Democrats were 37% of voters, Republicans 35%, others 28% in 2020
- White evangelicals were 20% of 2020 voters, 81% for Trump
- In 2020, turnout among 18-24 year olds reached 51.4%, highest since 1992
- Native American voters in key states like AZ had turnout over 70% in 2020
- LGBTQ+ voters supported Biden at 85% in 2020 exit polls
- Veterans voted 60% for Trump in 2020
- Homeowners favored Trump 54-44% in 2020
- Renters backed Biden 61-37% in 2020
Voter Demographics Interpretation
The American electorate in 2020 painted a portrait of two nations, cleaved less by geography than by age, education, and identity, as the older, whiter, and more rural coalition of Trump strained against the rising tide of a younger, more diverse, and urbanized Biden majority.
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