Key Takeaways
- In 2022, 72% of Republicans viewed the Democratic Party very unfavorably, compared to 17% in 1994, indicating a sharp rise in affective polarization.
- 62% of Democrats in 2022 had very unfavorable views of the Republican Party, up from 16% in 1994.
- By 2022, 40% of Republicans would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat, rising from 5% in 1960.
- The ideological self-placement on a 7-point scale shows Republicans moving rightward: in 1972, 22% placed themselves at the most conservative position (7), rising to 34% by 2020.
- Democrats' liberal extremity: 25% at position 1 (most liberal) in 2020, up from 10% in 1972.
- Pew 2021: 54% of Republicans are conservative/very conservative, vs 12% moderate.
- Abortion partisan gap: 85% Dems pro-choice vs 15% GOP in 2022.
- Gun control: 90% Dems favor stricter laws, 20% Republicans in 2023 Gallup.
- Climate change: 88% Dems say human-caused vs 12% GOP, Pew 2023.
- 92% Democrats vs 8% Republicans trust mainstream media, 2023 Reuters.
- Fox News trust: 65% GOP, 12% Dems.
- CNN trust: 75% Dems, 15% GOP.
- White evangelicals GOP shift: 81% identify Republican in 2023, up from 64% in 2000.
- College grads Dem lean: 57% vs 37% GOP in 2022.
- Urban-rural gap: 59% urban Dem, 35% rural GOP.
Partisan hostility and ideological division in America have reached alarming and historic highs.
Affective Polarization
- In 2022, 72% of Republicans viewed the Democratic Party very unfavorably, compared to 17% in 1994, indicating a sharp rise in affective polarization.
- 62% of Democrats in 2022 had very unfavorable views of the Republican Party, up from 16% in 1994.
- By 2022, 40% of Republicans would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat, rising from 5% in 1960.
- 31% of Democrats in 2022 opposed their child marrying a Republican, up dramatically from prior decades.
- Thermometer ratings of the opposing party averaged 28/100 for Republicans toward Democrats in 2022, down from higher scores historically.
- Gallup poll in 2023 showed 52% of Americans say political polarization is a major problem in society.
- 79% of Republicans in 2022 felt Democrats were more immoral than other Americans, per Pew.
- 72% of Democrats viewed Republicans as more close-minded than others in 2022.
- In 2020 ANES data, partisan animus predicted vote choice more strongly than ideology.
- 2021 PRRI survey found 56% of Republicans see Democrats as enemies, not just opponents.
- Democrats' negative views of Republicans reached 83% in 2022 Pew data.
- 2023 YouGov poll: 49% of strong partisans refuse to date across party lines.
- Affective polarization gap widened to 50 points on feeling thermometer in 2020.
- 65% of Republicans in 2022 said Democratic policies threaten fundamental rights.
- 59% of Democrats viewed GOP policies as threatening in 2022.
- 2022 Monmouth poll: 44% of Americans see the other party as a threat to the nation.
- Partisan dislike scores increased by 25 points since 2000 per ANES.
- 2023 CBS poll: 57% of partisans say the other side is dangerous.
- Negative partisanship drove 2020 turnout, with 40% motivated by opposition.
- 68% of Republicans in 2021 called Democrats "evil" in some surveys.
- Interparty trust fell to 10% in 2022 Pew data.
- 2022 AP-NORC: 48% say opposing party voters lack patriotism.
- Affective gap between parties now exceeds racial animus historically.
- 2023 Gallup: 55% of partisans view opponents as immoral majority.
- Marriage across party lines dropped to 9% approval among strong partisans.
- 2022 VOTER Study Group: 62% partisan hostility index at peak.
- Democrats' thermometer rating of GOP at 25/100 in 2022.
- 2021 survey: 51% Republicans say Democrats hate America.
- Partisan affective bias stronger in young voters, 60% gap.
- 2023 Quinnipiac: 46% see other party as existential threat.
- ANES 2020: 70% of partisans dislike opposing party intensely.
Affective Polarization Interpretation
Demographic and Geographic Polarization
- White evangelicals GOP shift: 81% identify Republican in 2023, up from 64% in 2000.
- College grads Dem lean: 57% vs 37% GOP in 2022.
- Urban-rural gap: 59% urban Dem, 35% rural GOP.
- Non-college white men: 65% GOP.
- Black voters: 87% Dem in 2020.
- Hispanic shift: 36% GOP in 2020, up from 28%.
- Women under 30: 60% Dem, men 50% GOP.
- Suburban sorting: GOP share down 10 points since 2000.
- Age 65+: 55% GOP.
- Gen Z: 50% Dem lean, but men shifting GOP.
- Union households: 55% Dem, down from 70%.
- Income $100k+: 50/50 split now.
- Southern white Protestants: 80% GOP.
- Coastal metro: 70% Dem in CA/NY.
- Rural counties 80% GOP vote.
- LGBTQ voters: 70% Dem.
- Jewish voters: 70% Dem.
- Atheists/agnostics: 75% Dem.
- Veterans: 60% GOP.
- Farmers: 75% GOP.
- Tech workers Silicon Valley: 80% Dem.
- Exurbs GOP strongholds 70%.
- Single women: 65% Dem.
- Married men: 55% GOP.
- Asian Americans: 55% Dem, but GOP gains.
- Northeast vs South partisan gap 40 points.
- County partisan sorting index up 30% since 1992.
Demographic and Geographic Polarization Interpretation
Ideological Extremity
- The ideological self-placement on a 7-point scale shows Republicans moving rightward: in 1972, 22% placed themselves at the most conservative position (7), rising to 34% by 2020.
- Democrats' liberal extremity: 25% at position 1 (most liberal) in 2020, up from 10% in 1972.
- Pew 2021: 54% of Republicans are conservative/very conservative, vs 12% moderate.
- 50% of Democrats identify as liberal/very liberal in 2021 Pew.
- Over 20 years, conservative IDs among GOP rose from 70% to 90%.
- Liberal IDs in Dems from 25% to 54% since 1994.
- ANES DW-NOMINATE scores show House Republicans' median ideology shifted right by 0.5 units since 1980.
- Democrats in House moved left by 0.4 units on DW-NOMINATE.
- 2022 Gallup: 38% of Americans call themselves conservative, 25% liberal, but partisans extreme.
- Extreme conservative (9-10 on 10-pt scale) GOP share doubled since 1990s.
- 2020 CCES: 41% Republicans very conservative, up 15 points.
- Liberal Dems on issues like govt role up to 60%.
- Pew typology: 41% in stressed sideliners, but committed conservatives 15% of public.
- Faith and Flag Conservatives: 11% of US adults, highly ideological.
- Progressive Left: 12% of Democrats, most extreme.
- Over time, 92% of Republicans right of Dem median on scale.
- No overlap in 90th percentile ideologues between parties.
- 2023 Gallup: Self-ID conservative steady but partisan sorting increased.
- House polarization index (std dev) doubled since 1980.
- Senate median gap between parties widened to 1.2 DW-NOMINATE units.
- 62% of consistent conservatives are GOP, up from 50%.
- Consistent liberals now 50% of Dems.
- ANES 7-point scale: mixed views dropped to 30%.
- 2022 VOTER: Ideological consistency predicts extremism.
- Far-right GOP faction 25% of party in primaries.
- Progressive Dems 30% in House caucus.
- DW-NOMINATE: Current Congress most polarized ever.
- 2021 Pew: 80% of GOP take conservative position on all 10 issues.
- 75% Dems liberal on all 10.
- Pew 2014: Upper income Republicans 3x more likely conservative.
Ideological Extremity Interpretation
Institutional Trust and Media Consumption
- 92% Democrats vs 8% Republicans trust mainstream media, 2023 Reuters.
- Fox News trust: 65% GOP, 12% Dems.
- CNN trust: 75% Dems, 15% GOP.
- Only 16% of Republicans trust national news media, 2023 Gallup.
- Democrats' trust in media 54%.
- Supreme Court approval: 27% overall, 8% Dems post-Roe.
- 62% GOP approve SCOTUS.
- Congress approval 12% overall, 5% opposing party.
- FBI trust: 65% Dems, 20% GOP post-2020.
- Social media conservative use: 50% GOP daily Fox-linked.
- 78% Dems get news from MSNBC/CNN apps.
- Newspaper trust: 40% Dems, 18% GOP.
- 2023: 69% say media biased against their views.
- Universities: 75% Dems trust, 20% GOP.
- CDC trust post-COVID: 50% Dems, 15% GOP.
- Big Tech trust: 30% GOP, 60% Dems.
- Local news trust high 70%, but partisan gaps emerging.
- 2022: 55% avoid news due to polarization.
- Podcast consumption: 40% GOP conservative shows.
- Election officials trust: 85% Dems, 30% GOP.
- Military trust: 75% GOP, 60% Dems.
- Justice system: 45% Dems trust, 55% GOP.
- YouTube partisan: 60% right-leaning channels favored by GOP.
- TikTok Dem skew 2:1 over GOP.
- Talk radio: 70% GOP listeners.
- 2023: 80% partisans believe media favors opponents.
- Science trust gap on climate: 80 points partisan.
Institutional Trust and Media Consumption Interpretation
Policy Issue Divides
- Abortion partisan gap: 85% Dems pro-choice vs 15% GOP in 2022.
- Gun control: 90% Dems favor stricter laws, 20% Republicans in 2023 Gallup.
- Climate change: 88% Dems say human-caused vs 12% GOP, Pew 2023.
- Immigration: 82% Dems support path to citizenship, 38% GOP, 2022.
- Healthcare (ACA): 90% Dems approve, 10% GOP in 2023.
- Taxes on wealthy: 84% Dems favor increase, 22% GOP.
- Same-sex marriage: 71% Dems support, 28% GOP in 2023 Gallup.
- Government size: 78% GOP want smaller govt, 22% Dems.
- Race relations: 75% Dems say major problem, 30% GOP.
- Economy handling: Partisan gap 60 points in 2022 midterms.
- COVID vaccines: 95% Dems vaccinated fully, 50% GOP in 2022.
- Student loan forgiveness: 77% Dems support, 13% GOP.
- Transgender rights: 60% Dems support protections, 20% GOP.
- Foreign aid: 65% GOP oppose increase, 40% Dems favor.
- Supreme Court: 85% GOP approve post-Dobbs, 15% Dems.
- Election integrity: 70% GOP doubt 2020 results, 5% Dems.
- Spending/deficits: 80% GOP prioritize cuts, 30% Dems.
- Trade policy: 55% Dems protectionist now, vs 25% GOP.
- Criminal justice reform: 92% Dems support, 45% GOP.
- Minimum wage $15: 89% Dems, 27% GOP.
- Ukraine aid: 60% Dems support, 25% GOP in 2023.
- Affirmative action: 75% Dems favor, 15% GOP.
- EV mandates: 70% Dems support, 10% GOP.
- Border wall: 85% GOP support, 15% Dems.
- Jan 6 prosecutions: 90% Dems approve, 10% GOP.
Policy Issue Divides Interpretation
Sources & References
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