Despite what your nerves might tell you, statistically speaking you're more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than die in a commercial plane crash, and here’s a detailed look at the numbers that prove flying is astonishingly safe.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, commercial aviation recorded 37.7 million flights worldwide with only 2 fatal accidents involving passenger jets, yielding a fatal accident rate of 0.05 per million flights
- From 2014 to 2023, the global jet hull loss rate was 0.41 per million departures, the lowest 10-year average in history
- US commercial aviation had zero fatal accidents in 2023 across 10.6 million departures, maintaining a 15-year streak without fatalities since 2009
- In 2022, worldwide commercial aviation fatalities totaled 158 from 5 accidents
- Odds of dying in a plane crash: 1 in 11 million per flight vs 1 in 5,000 for car
- From 2000-2019, average annual aviation fatalities: 479 globally
- Airline A: Qantas has safest record with 0 jet fatalities in 63 years
- Airline B: Finnair 0 fatal crashes in 100 years
- Region: North America jet hull loss rate 2014-2023: 0.00 per million departures
- Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) caused 11% of fatal accidents 2005-2014
- Runway excursions account for 32% of all commercial accidents 2011-2020
- Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) 21% of fatal accidents pre-2000, reduced by 70% with tech
- Flying safer than car by 100x: 1 death per 7M miles plane vs 1 per 5K car
- Plane fatality rate 0.07/million miles vs car 7.3/million
- Train: 0.04/million passenger miles vs plane 0.07, nearly equal
Commercial aviation is incredibly safe, with fatal accidents being extremely rare events.
Accident Frequency
- In 2023, commercial aviation recorded 37.7 million flights worldwide with only 2 fatal accidents involving passenger jets, yielding a fatal accident rate of 0.05 per million flights
- From 2014 to 2023, the global jet hull loss rate was 0.41 per million departures, the lowest 10-year average in history
- US commercial aviation had zero fatal accidents in 2023 across 10.6 million departures, maintaining a 15-year streak without fatalities since 2009
- Between 2008 and 2017, the worldwide rate of accidents for commercial jet airplanes was 0.93 per million departures
- In Europe, the fatal accident rate for commercial air transport in 2022 was 0.06 per million flight cycles
- From 2013-2022, Airbus aircraft experienced 0.31 fatal accidents per million flight cycles globally
- The accident rate for Western-built jets in 2022 was 1.12 per million flights, down from 1.30 in 2021
- In 2021, there were 4 fatal accidents worldwide out of 32.2 million commercial flights, rate of 0.12 per million
- Australia's commercial aviation fatal accident rate from 2013-2022 was 0.03 per million sectors
- From 1945-2023, total commercial airliner hull losses number 2,149 out of over 1 billion flights
- In 2022, the US Part 121 accident rate was 0.18 per 100,000 flight hours
- Global turboprop accident rate 2018-2022 averaged 1.25 per million flights
- EASA member states reported 0.46 accidents per million flight hours in 2022 for commercial ops
- From 2010-2019, China’s commercial jet accident rate was 0.55 per million departures
- In 2020, despite COVID, zero fatal jet accidents in IATA member airlines
- Brazil's ANAC reported 0.11 fatal accidents per million takeoffs in 2022
- From 2000-2022, Ryanair had 0 fatal accidents in over 150 million flights
- Global helicopter accident rate 2019-2023: 3.2 per 100,000 hours
- In 2023, no fatal accidents for Boeing 737 MAX worldwide since recertification
- Europe's 2023 fatal accident rate for fixed-wing ops: 0.04 per million flights
- From 2018-2027 projection, accident rate expected to fall to 0.8 per million departures
- US general aviation accident rate 2022: 4.07 per 100,000 flight hours
- In 2022, Asia-Pacific jet accident rate: 0.92 per million departures
- From 1942-2022, total US air carrier fatal accidents: 1,321
- ICAO global accident rate 2022: 1.49 per million departures for all ops
- Southwest Airlines: 0 fatal accidents in 50+ years, over 50 million flights
- In 2023, Middle East/North Africa jet hull loss rate: 0.00 per million flights
- Global business jet accident rate 2022: 1.04 per 100,000 hours
- From 2014-2023, LATAM airlines region accident rate: 0.24 per million flights
- 2022 Canadian commercial accident rate: 0.35 per 100,000 hours
Accident Frequency Interpretation
These statistics overwhelmingly prove you are in far greater danger being tragically bored by the safety briefing than you are from the flight itself.
Comparative Safety
- Flying safer than car by 100x: 1 death per 7M miles plane vs 1 per 5K car
- Plane fatality rate 0.07/million miles vs car 7.3/million
- Train: 0.04/million passenger miles vs plane 0.07, nearly equal
- Motorcycle 212x more dangerous than plane per mile
- Bus: 0.11/million miles vs plane 0.07, plane safer
- Walking: 40.5 deaths/million miles vs aviation 0.07
- Commercial plane vs private plane: 1 in 2.9M departures fatal vs 1 in 51K
- Plane vs bicycle: aviation 1,000x safer per trip
- US airline safer than driving: 9.7B miles flown 2022, 0 deaths
- Elevator safer than plane: 1 in 10M lifetime odds vs plane 1 in 11M per flight
- Plane vs ferry/boat: aviation 50x lower fatality rate per passenger mile
- Scooter/moped 100x riskier than commercial flight
- Plane vs train in Europe: air 0.08 vs rail 0.10 fatalities/million pax-km
- Lifetime odds plane crash death 1:9,821 vs car 1:107
- GA flying 20x riskier than commercial airlines
- Plane safer than taxi: 1.5/million miles taxi vs 0.07 air
- Vs shark attack: 1 in 3.7M swims vs 1 in 11M flights
- Commercial jet vs crop duster: 1,000x safer per hour
- Air travel vs lightning strike: 1 in 15K lifetime lightning vs 1:982K air crash
- Plane vs horseback riding: equestrian 1 in 1M hours vs plane 1 in 100M
- International flights safer than domestic: 0.09 vs 0.18/million 2022
- Vs skydiving: plane 1 in 11M vs skydive 1 in 100K jumps
- Airline vs charter: scheduled 10x safer than nonscheduled ops
- Plane safer than escalator: 0.3/million trips escalator vs 0.00009 air
- Vs vending machine falling over: 1 in 112 lifetime vs plane crash 1:5,000 lifetime
Comparative Safety Interpretation
While your car is statistically a rolling deathtrap compared to a plane, you can take some comfort in knowing that your next flight is roughly as safe as your average elevator ride, dramatically safer than a bicycle trip, and only marginally riskier than a train, though it remains infinitely more terrifying than being slowly crushed by a rogue vending machine.
Fatality Statistics
- In 2022, worldwide commercial aviation fatalities totaled 158 from 5 accidents
- Odds of dying in a plane crash: 1 in 11 million per flight vs 1 in 5,000 for car
- From 2000-2019, average annual aviation fatalities: 479 globally
- US airlines: 0 fatalities in scheduled passenger ops since Feb 2009, over 18 billion passenger miles
- 2023 global fatalities from airliner accidents: 130, lowest in decades
- Survival rate in survivable plane crashes: 95.7% from 1983-2000 NTSB study
- From 1970-2022, total commercial jet fatalities: ~55,000 out of billions boarded
- In 2021, 176 fatalities from single deadliest crash (PS752), rest of year zero
- European commercial aviation fatalities 2013-2022: average 50 per year
- Boeing 737 series: 5,779 fatalities over 50 years across 200+ hull losses
- From 2010-2020, Africa had 1,200 aviation fatalities, highest regional rate
- US general aviation: 1,225 fatalities in 2022
- Post-9/11, US commercial fatalities near zero except Colgan 3407 (50 dead)
- Global 2020 fatalities: 299, mostly military/cargo, 0 passenger jet
- Survival probability in crashes 2000-2019: 82% for major accidents
- Qantas: 0 fatalities in jet era (1958-2024)
- From 1945-2023, total airliner crash fatalities: 57,142
- 2022 saw 158 fatalities, 97% from one Nepal crash
- Airline passenger fatality risk per boarding: 0.07 per million 2018-2022
- In survivable accidents 1980-2020, occupant fatality rate 5-10%
- LATAM region 2022 fatalities: 0 in commercial passenger ops
- From 2019-2023, Asia-Pacific fatalities averaged 120/year
- US air carrier fatalities 2013-2022: 0 in scheduled ops
- Global turboprop fatalities 2022: 45 from 3 accidents
- 99.999% of flights end safely, equating to <1 fatality per 10 million boardings
- From 2009-2023, 0 US airline passenger fatalities in 100+ million flights
Fatality Statistics Interpretation
Statistically speaking, you have a better chance of being struck by a spectacularly unlikely series of events than dying in a plane crash, as modern commercial aviation has refined survival into a near certainty despite the catastrophic drama of its rare failures.
Incident Causes
- Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) caused 11% of fatal accidents 2005-2014
- Runway excursions account for 32% of all commercial accidents 2011-2020
- Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) 21% of fatal accidents pre-2000, reduced by 70% with tech
- System/component failure 18% of accidents 2015-2022
- Bird strikes cause 70% of wildlife incidents, leading to 0.01% accidents
- Weather (icing/thunderstorms) factor in 23% of fatal US accidents 1980-2020
- Human error involved in 80% of aviation accidents per NTSB
- Runway incursion risk reduced 75% with ASDE-X, causes 5% incidents
- Engine failure primary cause in 12% hull losses 1990-2020
- Loss of pressurization rare, cause <1% accidents, handled by auto systems
- Terrain avoidance warning system prevents 55% potential CFIT
- Fuel exhaustion 7% of GA accidents, <1% commercial
- TCAS RA compliance prevents 90% mid-air collision risks
- Windshear microbursts cause 1% but 30% fatal runway crashes historically
- Maintenance errors contribute to 15% incidents, per EASA data 2022
- In-flight fire rare, 0.1% accidents, improved by halon alternatives
- Wake turbulence 4% of near-misses, zero fatal commercial since 1986
- Pilot fatigue factor in 15-20% serious incidents
- Volcanic ash encounters: 0 hull losses due to engine design redundancies
- Cargo shift/load issues 2% accidents, regulated by weight/balance rules
- icing conditions cause 6.5% accidents, mitigated by boots/de-icing
- GPS jamming/spoofing emerging threat, caused 0 accidents but 500+ incidents 2022
- Bird ingestion led to US Airways 1549 ditching, sole engine failure case
- Runway overrun due to wet runway/aquaplaning 50% of excursions
- Spatial disorientation 10% night accidents
- Cybersecurity threats: 0 successful hacks causing accidents
Incident Causes Interpretation
While technology has admirably tamed the once-dominant killers like CFIT, the persistent and witty ghost in the machine remains the human at the controls, who, when paired with a wet runway or a tired brain, still writes most of aviation's unlucky headlines.
Safety Records by Airline/Region
- Airline A: Qantas has safest record with 0 jet fatalities in 63 years
- Airline B: Finnair 0 fatal crashes in 100 years
- Region: North America jet hull loss rate 2014-2023: 0.00 per million departures
- Airline C: Ryanair 0 fatalities in 40 years, 1 billion passengers
- Region: Europe 2023 risk index: 0.06 fatalities per million boardings
- Airline D: Emirates 0 fatal passenger incidents since 1985
- Region: Australia/New Zealand 2013-2022: 0 fatal turboprop accidents
- Airline E: Hawaiian Airlines 0 fatal accidents ever
- Region: North Asia (China/Japan) accident rate 0.38/million 2019-2023
- Airline F: EasyJet 0 hull losses in 25 years
- Region: Middle East 2022: safest region with 0.00 fatal rate
- Airline G: Southwest 0 passenger fatalities in 52 years
- Region: CIS (Russia/Ukraine) higher rate 2.1/million 2014-2023
- Airline H: Air New Zealand 0 fatal jet accidents since 1970
- Region: Latin America 2023: 0.15 fatal accidents/million flights
- Airline I: Virgin Australia 0 major incidents in 20 years
- Region: Africa 2018-2022 average 4.2 accidents/million departures
- Airline J: JetBlue 0 fatalities in 23 years
- Region: Southeast Asia 2022: 1.2 hull losses/million
- Airline K: Norwegian Air 0 fatal crashes since inception
- Region: US domestic: safest with 0 fatal rate 14 years running
- Airline L: SAS Scandinavian 0 passenger jet fatalities since 1954
- Region: South Asia (India) 2023 rate: 0.45/million flights
- Airline M: Allegiant Air perfect safety record no hull losses
- Region: Central America/Caribbean 2019-2023: 0.8/million departures
- Airline N: Icelandair 0 accidents in 80+ years
- Region: Northeast Asia safest non-Western: 0.22/million 2022
- Airline O: Frontier Airlines 0 major incidents 30 years
Safety Records by Airline/Region Interpretation
If you want a life insurance actuary to take up drinking, just show them the bewilderingly perfect safety records of modern aviation alongside the stubbornly persistent risk in some regions, which proves that while excellence can be engineered globally, consistent execution remains a geographical luxury.
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