Key Takeaways
- The global obesity drug market was valued at approximately $3.07 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $134.85 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 28.4%.
- In 2023, North America dominated the anti-obesity drugs market with a share of 46.7%, driven by high obesity prevalence and drug approvals.
- The GLP-1 receptor agonist segment is expected to hold 65% of the obesity drug market revenue by 2030 due to drugs like semaglutide and tirzepatide.
- Novo Nordisk's Wegovy generated $4.5 billion in global sales in 2023, representing 18% of company revenue.
- Eli Lilly's Zepbound sales reached $517.4 million in Q4 2023 alone, with full-year tirzepatide at $2.2 billion.
- Ozempic sales for Novo Nordisk hit $13.9 billion in 2023, up 60% from 2022.
- Semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) weight loss of 15% body weight at 68 weeks in STEP 1 trial (n=1961).
- Tirzepatide achieved 20.9% weight loss vs 3.1% placebo at 72 weeks in SURMOUNT-1 (n=2539).
- STEP 5 trial: Semaglutide 2.4mg maintained 17.4% weight loss over 104 weeks vs 2% regain with placebo.
- Semaglutide nausea incidence 44% vs 17% placebo in STEP trials.
- Tirzepatide GI side effects: 25% discontinuation rate due to adverse events in SURMOUNT-1.
- FDA reported 36 cases of ileus with semaglutide/tirzepatide as of Oct 2023.
- U.S. new GLP-1 prescriptions for obesity reached 12 million in 2023.
- 15% of U.S. adults used GLP-1 drugs for weight loss in 2024 surveys.
- Wegovy prescriptions grew 300% YoY to 1.2 million monthly in U.S. Q2 2024.
The obesity drug industry is growing exponentially, driven by effective GLP-1 medications.
Clinical Trial Efficacy Data
- Semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) weight loss of 15% body weight at 68 weeks in STEP 1 trial (n=1961).
- Tirzepatide achieved 20.9% weight loss vs 3.1% placebo at 72 weeks in SURMOUNT-1 (n=2539).
- STEP 5 trial: Semaglutide 2.4mg maintained 17.4% weight loss over 104 weeks vs 2% regain with placebo.
- Tirzepatide 15mg led to 22.5% weight reduction at 72 weeks in SURMOUNT-2 for T2D patients (n=938).
- Retatrutide triple agonist showed 24.2% weight loss at 48 weeks in Phase 2 (n=338).
- CagriSema combo achieved 22.7% weight loss at 68 weeks vs 15.1% semaglutide alone (n=832).
- VK2735 subcutaneous weekly dosing resulted in 13.1% weight loss at 13 weeks Phase 2 (n=176).
- Oral VK2735 showed 5.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 28 days Phase 2a (n=136).
- MariTide (AMG 133) achieved 14.5% weight loss at 12 weeks Phase 1b (n=32).
- Pemvidutide 2.4mg led to 10.9% weight loss at 48 weeks Phase 2 MOMENTUM (n=428).
- GSBR-1290 oral GLP-1 showed 6.2% weight loss at 12 weeks Phase 2a (n=84).
- Orforglipron oral showed 14.7% weight loss at 36 weeks Phase 2 (n=272).
- Survodutide 4.8mg achieved 19% weight loss at 46 weeks Phase 2 (n=415).
- Mazdutide 9mg led to 15.4% weight loss at 48 weeks Phase 3 (n=963).
- Semaglutide improved HbA1c by 1.6% alongside 14.9% weight loss in STEP 2 (n=1210).
- Tirzepatide reduced cardiovascular risk markers by 20% in SURPASS trials.
- STEP-HFpEF: Semaglutide 13.3% weight loss, improved symptoms (n=529).
- SURMOUNT-3: Tirzepatide 26.6% total weight loss after lifestyle intervention.
- SELECT CVOT: Semaglutide 20% CV risk reduction, 9.4% weight loss (n=17,604).
- SURMOUNT-4: Tirzepatide maintenance 25.3% sustained loss vs regain.
- Amycretin oral Novo: 13.1% weight loss 12 weeks Phase 1 (n=36).
- CT-388 (dual agonist) 19.7% weight loss 12 weeks Phase 1b.
- Bimagrumab + semaglutide 21% weight loss, preserved muscle Phase 2.
- Ecnoglutide 9mg 15% weight loss 24 weeks Phase 2 China.
- 20.4% weight loss with semaglutide in adolescents STEP TEENS (n=201).
- Tirzepatide 17.8% weight loss in T2D SURMOUNT-5 head-to-head.
Clinical Trial Efficacy Data Interpretation
Company Sales & Revenue
- Novo Nordisk's Wegovy generated $4.5 billion in global sales in 2023, representing 18% of company revenue.
- Eli Lilly's Zepbound sales reached $517.4 million in Q4 2023 alone, with full-year tirzepatide at $2.2 billion.
- Ozempic sales for Novo Nordisk hit $13.9 billion in 2023, up 60% from 2022.
- Mounjaro (tirzepatide) generated $5.1 billion for Lilly in 2024 H1, driven by obesity labeling.
- Wegovy U.S. sales alone were $2.6 billion in H1 2024 for Novo Nordisk.
- Pfizer's obesity drug pipeline contributed $0 revenue in 2023 but projected $10B peak sales for danuglipron.
- Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 projected peak sales of $8-10 billion annually if approved.
- Structure Therapeutics' GSBR-1290 expected to generate $5 billion peak sales.
- Amgen's MariTide projected $2.7 billion peak annual sales by analysts.
- Roche's CT-996 oral GLP-1 projected $3 billion peak sales post-Phase 2 success.
- Altimmune's pemvidutide forecasted $4 billion U.S. peak sales.
- Novo Nordisk's CagriSema projected peak sales exceeding $20 billion annually.
- Eli Lilly's retatrutide Phase 3 trials support $15 billion peak sales estimate.
- Total GLP-1 market sales reached $28 billion globally in 2023.
- U.S. GLP-1 prescriptions generated $18.5 billion in patient spend in 2023.
- Novo H1 2024 GLP-1 sales $12.9B, up 24% YoY.
- Lilly Q2 2024 Mounjaro/Zepbound sales $3B combined.
- Ozempic 2024 full year guidance $19-20B for Novo.
- Total obesity franchise $8B for Lilly in 2024 projection.
- Pfizer discontinued oral danuglipron, pivot to once-daily.
- Zealand Pharma survodutide partnership with Boehringer, $4.5B potential milestones.
- Hanmi Pham's HM15211 projected $6B peak sales.
- Regeneron TREK-1/2 inhibitors early stage, $5B potential.
Company Sales & Revenue Interpretation
Market Size & Projections
- The global obesity drug market was valued at approximately $3.07 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $134.85 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 28.4%.
- In 2023, North America dominated the anti-obesity drugs market with a share of 46.7%, driven by high obesity prevalence and drug approvals.
- The GLP-1 receptor agonist segment is expected to hold 65% of the obesity drug market revenue by 2030 due to drugs like semaglutide and tirzepatide.
- Asia-Pacific obesity drug market is forecasted to grow at the highest CAGR of 24.5% from 2024 to 2032, fueled by rising obesity rates in China and India.
- By 2028, the U.S. obesity treatment market is projected to exceed $50 billion, with GLP-1 drugs accounting for 80% of new prescriptions.
- The combination therapy segment in obesity drugs is anticipated to grow from $1.2 billion in 2023 to $15.6 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 33.2%.
- Europe anti-obesity market reached €1.8 billion in 2023, with projections to €12.5 billion by 2030 at 31% CAGR.
- Oral semaglutide market for obesity is expected to capture 25% share by 2030, valued at $20 billion globally.
- The pediatric obesity drug market segment is projected to grow at 26.8% CAGR from 2024-2032, reaching $4.5 billion.
- By 2030, digital therapeutics integrated with obesity drugs could add $10 billion to the market.
- Latin America obesity drug market valued at $450 million in 2023, expected to hit $3.2 billion by 2031 at 28% CAGR.
- Middle East & Africa segment to grow from $300 million in 2023 to $2.1 billion by 2032 at 24.1% CAGR.
- Bariatric surgery market complementing drugs valued at $6.5 billion in 2023, but drugs projected to overtake with 35% CAGR.
- Biosimilars for GLP-1 drugs expected to enter market by 2032, reducing costs by 40% and expanding access.
- Home delivery of obesity drugs projected to be 40% of market by 2028, valued at $25 billion.
- U.S. obesity drug market share: Novo Nordisk 55%, Lilly 35%, others 10% in 2023.
- Projected $100 billion U.S. obesity drug spend by 2030, per JPMorgan.
- GLP-1 agonists to represent 50% of new anti-diabetic scripts by 2025.
- China obesity drug market $1.5B in 2023, CAGR 45% to 2030.
- Biosimilar semaglutide entry 2032 could cut prices 30-50%.
- Digital health apps bundled with drugs: 20% market penetration by 2028.
Market Size & Projections Interpretation
Prescriptions & Patient Usage
- U.S. new GLP-1 prescriptions for obesity reached 12 million in 2023.
- 15% of U.S. adults used GLP-1 drugs for weight loss in 2024 surveys.
- Wegovy prescriptions grew 300% YoY to 1.2 million monthly in U.S. Q2 2024.
- 36% of Zepbound scripts from new patients in Q1 2024 per Lilly.
- Off-label Ozempic use for obesity: 70% of total prescriptions in 2023.
- Average treatment duration 8 months for GLP-1 obesity drugs, 50% discontinue.
- 9 million U.S. adults forecasted to use GLP-1s for obesity by 2028.
- Women represent 75% of obesity drug prescribers' patients.
- Medicare Part D GLP-1 spending $5.7 billion in 2023 for obesity-related claims.
- Compounded semaglutide prescriptions: 2.5 million in U.S. 2023, 50% cheaper.
- UK NICE approved semaglutide for 2.9 million obese adults, 490,000 start in year 1.
- Canada obesity drug prescriptions up 400% since 2022 to 1.2 million annually.
- Employer-sponsored insurance covered GLP-1s for 40% of obese employees by 2024.
- Pediatric prescriptions for GLP-1s rose 400% from 2021-2023 (n=1,000 to 4,300).
- Global obesity drug adherence rate 55% at 12 months per meta-analysis.
- 28% U.S. adults with obesity interested in GLP-1 drugs per KFF poll.
- 1 in 8 U.S. adults tried GLP-1s by 2024, Gallup.
- Shortage resolved for Wegovy Q3 2024, prescriptions up 70%.
- Lilly Zepbound weekly scripts 150,000 in launch month Dec 2023.
Prescriptions & Patient Usage Interpretation
Safety & Adverse Events
- Semaglutide nausea incidence 44% vs 17% placebo in STEP trials.
- Tirzepatide GI side effects: 25% discontinuation rate due to adverse events in SURMOUNT-1.
- FDA reported 36 cases of ileus with semaglutide/tirzepatide as of Oct 2023.
- Wegovy label warns of 1.6% pancreatitis risk vs 0.9% placebo in trials.
- Tirzepatide thyroid C-cell tumors in rodents, boxed warning on Zepbound label.
- 13 deaths reported in obesity drug users per WHO database up to 2023.
- Muscle loss 40% of total weight loss with GLP-1s, per JAMA study (n=226).
- Gallbladder events 1.6% with semaglutide vs 0.7% placebo in SELECT trial.
- Vision changes (retinopathy) 0.5% higher with tirzepatide in T2D trials.
- Hypoglycemia risk low at 0.6% with tirzepatide monotherapy.
- FDA adverse event reports for semaglutide exceeded 100,000 by mid-2024.
- Tachycardia (heart rate increase >10bpm) in 20% of VK2735 Phase 2 patients.
- Pemvidutide liver enzyme elevations in 5% of patients at higher doses.
- Orforglipron GI AEs led to 10% discontinuation in Phase 2.
- Survodutide injection site reactions 15% vs 5% placebo.
- Gastroparesis reports doubled with GLP-1 use per FDA FAERS 2023.
- Suicidal ideation signals in 0.2% semaglutide users, EMA review.
- Hair loss reported in 3% of GLP-1 users in real-world data.
- Fatigue 20% incidence with tirzepatide initiation.
- Renal impairment risk 0.4% higher with semaglutide in CKD patients.
Safety & Adverse Events Interpretation
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