Key Takeaways
- Nigeria produced 1,454,000 barrels per day of crude oil on average in 2022 according to OPEC
- In 2021, Nigeria's crude oil production averaged 1,377,000 bpd, down from 1,528,000 bpd in 2020 per BP Statistical Review
- Nigeria's oil production peaked at 2.496 million bpd in November 2005
- Nigeria's proven oil reserves as of 2022: 36.9 billion barrels
- OPEC estimates Nigeria's proven reserves at 37.1 billion barrels in 2023
- EIA data: Nigeria holds 37.5 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves (2021)
- Nigeria's crude oil exports in 2022 totaled 368 million tonnes
- 2022 oil exports value: $68.3 billion
- Monthly export average 2023 Q1: 41.7 million barrels
- Nigeria has over 159 oil fields, with 80 onshore, 60 shallow water, 19 deepwater
- Agbami deepwater field daily production: 250,000 bpd peak
- Bonga field, operated by Shell, produces 200,000 bpd from 9 billion boe reserves
- Oil theft losses: N1.29 trillion ($3.3 billion) in 2022
- Pipeline vandalism incidents: 469 in 2022
- Production shut-ins due to theft: 619,000 bpd in Q1 2023
Nigeria's oil production has declined significantly from its peak and now faces major challenges.
Disruptions
- Oil theft losses: N1.29 trillion ($3.3 billion) in 2022
- Pipeline vandalism incidents: 469 in 2022
- Production shut-ins due to theft: 619,000 bpd in Q1 2023
- Militant attacks reduced production by 1 million bpd in 2006 peak
- COVID-19 impact: 40% drop in demand led to 500,000 bpd cut in 2020
- Forcados pipeline rupture 2016: Shut-in 250,000 bpd for months
- Niger Delta Avengers attacks 2016: Production fell to 1.4 million bpd from 2.1
- Illegal refining sites destroyed: 8,408 in 2022 by security forces
- Gas flaring volume: 240 million scf/day in 2022
- OPEC quota non-compliance: Nigeria exceeded by 100,000 bpd in 2022
- Maintenance shut-ins: 200,000 bpd in Q4 2023 planned
- Spill incidents: 197 in 2022
- Cleanup costs: $1 billion annually for spills and theft
- Community conflicts: 15% production loss in OMLs
- Weather-related disruptions: Minimal, less than 1% annually
- COVID lockdowns: Additional 100,000 bpd loss in 2021
- Bonga field shut-in 2011: 225,000 bpd offline for 2 weeks
- Qua Iboe maintenance 2023: 100,000 bpd offline
- Offshore piracy incidents: 12 in 2022 affecting tankers
Disruptions Interpretation
Economic Impact
- Oil revenue contribution to GDP: 5.5% in 2022
- Federation Account oil revenue: N6.3 trillion in 2022
- Oil accounts for 90% of export earnings
- NNPCL remittances to federation: $22.5 billion in 2023
- Upstream investment FDI: $2.5 billion in 2022
- Jobs in oil sector: 200,000 direct, 500,000 indirect
- Local content spend: N2.36 trillion since 2010
- Tax oil revenue: 65% of total non-oil tax in 2022
- Budget allocation oil-dependent: 70% of 2023 budget from oil
- Royalty payments: N1.1 trillion in 2022
- PSC profit oil share to govt: 60-80% depending on tranche
- JV cash call arrears: $3 billion pending from govt
- Gas revenue: $1.5 billion exports in 2022
- Refining capacity utilization: 10% average in 2022
- Import substitution savings potential: $10 billion/year if refineries at 100%
Economic Impact Interpretation
Export Figures
- Nigeria's crude oil exports in 2022 totaled 368 million tonnes
- 2022 oil exports value: $68.3 billion
- Monthly export average 2023 Q1: 41.7 million barrels
- Top destination US imports from Nigeria: 8.2 million barrels in 2022
- India imported 233,000 bpd from Nigeria in 2023
- EU imports from Nigeria: 5% of total EU oil imports in 2022
- Export terminals: Bonny exported 1.2 million bpd in 2022 average
- Crude oil export proceeds Jan-Nov 2023: $50.8 billion
- 2021 exports: 1.38 million bpd average
- Pipeline exports via EAEP: 20,000 bpd to Cameroon
- LNG exports: 22 million tonnes in 2022 from Nigeria LNG
- Refined product exports negligible, less than 1% of production
- Forcados terminal exports: 225,000 bpd capacity
- Brass terminal planned exports: 1 million bpd
- Export disruptions 2023: 314,000 bpd loss due to theft
- Crude grade Qua Iboe exports: 7.5 million barrels/month average
- Bonny Light exports to Europe: 40% of Nigerian crude in 2022
- Agbami crude exports: Primarily to US and Asia, 600,000 bpd
Export Figures Interpretation
Field Data
- Nigeria has over 159 oil fields, with 80 onshore, 60 shallow water, 19 deepwater
- Agbami deepwater field daily production: 250,000 bpd peak
- Bonga field, operated by Shell, produces 200,000 bpd from 9 billion boe reserves
- Erha FPSO produces 150,000 bpd, operated by ExxonMobil
- OML 130 (Usan) field: 150,000 bpd capacity, TotalEnergies operator
- Akpo deepwater field: 175,000 bpd, TotalEnergies
- Egina FPSO: 200,000 bpd, operational since 2018
- Abo field: 50,000 bpd, Eni operator
- Qua Iboe terminal processes 650,000 bpd
- Bonny Terminal: Handles 1.25 million bpd export capacity
- Forcados Terminal: 400,000 bpd capacity post-repair
- Pennington-1 well discovery: 1.2 billion boe potential
- OML 127 (Madu) field: Recent 24 trillion bcf gas discovery
- Onshore fields contribute 40% of production
- Deepwater fields: 30% of total production
- FPSOs in operation: 12 units producing 1 million bpd combined
- Niger Delta Basin hosts 90% of fields
- OML 49 (Ikebiri) field: 20,000 bpd
- Asasa field discovery: 500 million boe
Field Data Interpretation
Production Volumes
- Nigeria produced 1,454,000 barrels per day of crude oil on average in 2022 according to OPEC
- In 2021, Nigeria's crude oil production averaged 1,377,000 bpd, down from 1,528,000 bpd in 2020 per BP Statistical Review
- Nigeria's oil production peaked at 2.496 million bpd in November 2005
- Monthly average crude oil production in Nigeria for February 2023 was 1,367,857 bpd as reported by NNPC
- Nigeria's 2023 average daily oil production forecast by EIA is 1.4 million bpd
- In Q1 2023, Nigeria produced an average of 1.31 million bpd of crude oil
- Nigeria's condensate production averaged 239,000 bpd in 2022
- Total petroleum liquids production in Nigeria was 1.69 million bpd in 2022 per EIA
- Nigeria's oil production dropped to 1.25 million bpd in August 2023 due to theft
- Historical peak monthly production: 2.58 million bpd in December 2002
- Nigeria's 2019 average crude production was 1.822 million bpd
- In 2020, production fell to 1.738 million bpd amid COVID-19
- Q4 2022 average: 1.37 million bpd
- January 2024 production: 1.64 million bpd
Production Volumes Interpretation
Reserves Estimates
- Nigeria's proven oil reserves as of 2022: 36.9 billion barrels
- OPEC estimates Nigeria's proven reserves at 37.1 billion barrels in 2023
- EIA data: Nigeria holds 37.5 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves (2021)
- NNPC reports total hydrocarbon reserves at 198.74 trillion cubic feet of gas and 37 billion barrels oil equivalent
- Undiscovered technically recoverable oil resources: 6 billion barrels per USGS
- Proven reserves-to-production ratio: 57 years based on 2022 data
- Niger Delta reserves concentration: Over 90% of reserves in 159 fields
- Deepwater reserves: Approximately 15 billion barrels untapped
- Total recoverable reserves estimate: 38 billion barrels by 2023 OPEC survey
- Gas reserves: 206 trillion cubic feet proven (2022)
- Agbami field reserves: 1 billion barrels
- Bonga field: 9 billion barrels oil equivalent reserves
- Erha field: Over 1 billion barrels recoverable
- Nigeria LNG reserves support: 25 trillion cubic feet
- Frontier basins reserves potential: 40 billion barrels undiscovered
Reserves Estimates Interpretation
Sources & References
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