While Indonesia cemented its staggering dominance, producing nearly half the world's nickel in 2022 as global output surged to fuel the electric vehicle revolution, the industry's explosive growth masks a complex web of geopolitical tensions, environmental trade-offs, and a frantic race to secure the resources powering our clean energy future.
Key Takeaways
- In 2022, global nickel mine production totaled 3,300 thousand metric tons, marking a 9% increase from 2021 primarily driven by expansions in Indonesia and the Philippines
- Indonesia accounted for 49% of global nickel mine production in 2022 with 1,610 thousand metric tons, largely from laterite deposits processed via HPAL and RKEF technologies
- The Philippines produced 380 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022, representing 12% of global output despite regulatory challenges on mining operations
- Identified nickel resources worldwide totaled 100 million metric tons as of 2022, with 95 million in laterites and 5 million in sulfides
- Indonesia holds 21 million metric tons of nickel reserves, 21% of global total, concentrated in Sulawesi laterite deposits
- Australia possesses 24 million metric tons of nickel resources, primarily laterites in Western Australia
- LME nickel price averaged $25,066 per metric ton in 2022, up 26% from 2021 amid supply fears
- Shanghai nickel futures averaged CNY 140,000 per ton ($20,000 USD) in 2022
- Nickel spot price peaked at $101,365 per ton on LME March 2022 due to short squeeze
- Norilsk Nickel (GMKN) produced 210 kt refined nickel in 2022, world's largest producer
- Vale SA's global nickel output was 170 kt in 2022 across Canada, Brazil, Indonesia
- Glencore Plc nickel production totaled 90 kt in 2022 from Australia, Canada, New Caledonia
- Global nickel mining GHG emissions average 15 tCO2e per ton Ni, laterites 25 vs sulfides 5
- Indonesia nickel smelters emitted 100 Mt CO2 in 2022 from coal-powered RKEF
- Tailings from nickel laterite processing average 10:1 waste to ore ratio globally
In 2022, Indonesia led global nickel production growth, fueled by electric vehicle demand.
Companies
- Norilsk Nickel (GMKN) produced 210 kt refined nickel in 2022, world's largest producer
- Vale SA's global nickel output was 170 kt in 2022 across Canada, Brazil, Indonesia
- Glencore Plc nickel production totaled 90 kt in 2022 from Australia, Canada, New Caledonia
- BHP Group Nickel West output 72 kt in FY2022, with $1.2B capex for expansion
- PT Vale Indonesia Tbk produced 76 kt nickel matte in 2022, 50% owned by Vale
- Jinchuan Group refined 140 kt nickel in 2022, China's largest
- Eramet Group SLN New Caledonia ferronickel 12 kt in 2022, facing restructuring
- Sherritt International Moa JV Cuba 30 kt nickel + 3 kt cobalt 2022
- First Quantum Minerals Ravensthorpe 35 kt nickel 2022 after $230M investment
- Tsingshan Holding dominates Indonesia with 500 kt NPI capacity at IMIP 2022
- Nornickel palladium-nickel revenue $17B in 2022, 42% from nickel
- Anglo American's Aquila JV planned 20 kt nickel by 2024 from Australia
- Terrafame Oy Finland 15 kt nickel 2022, expanding to 44 kt by 2027
- Lundin Mining Eagle Mine USA 15 kt nickel concentrate 2022
- PolyMet NorthMet USA permitted 50 kt nickel equiv annually post-2024
- Western Areas Forrestania 10 kt nickel concentrate 2022 Australia
- IGO Ltd Nova-Bollinger 40 kt NiS equiv 2022 high-grade sulfide
- Independence Group Nickel West toll 20 kt 2022
- Nickel 28 Capital Pony Creek 10 kt HPAL planned 2025
- Ardea Resources Kalgoorlie Ni-Co 40 kt NiSO4 equiv Go-1 PFS 2022
- Chalice Mining Julimar PGE-Ni discovery 2022 maiden resource 11Mt 0.45% Ni
- Australia Nickel Pty Ltd (AGNICO) Savannah 10 kt Ni 2022
- Mincor Resources Cassini Kambalda 5 kt Ni 2022
- Celsius Resources Maukala Indonesia 50 kt NPI planned
- Nickel Asia Corp Philippines 40 kt ore equiv 2022 multiple mines
- MBK Metals Madagascar Tamatave HPAL 50 kt MHP targeted 2025
Companies Interpretation
The cold, industrial chessboard of global nickel production sees Russia's Norilsk holding a formidable, palladium-laced king's position at 210kt, while the archipelago of rivals—from Vale's 170kt empire to Tsingshan's staggering 500kt capacity in Indonesia—jostle for strategic squares, all under the looming shadow of an electric future demanding ever more of this silvery-white metal.
Environment
- Global nickel mining GHG emissions average 15 tCO2e per ton Ni, laterites 25 vs sulfides 5
- Indonesia nickel smelters emitted 100 Mt CO2 in 2022 from coal-powered RKEF
- Tailings from nickel laterite processing average 10:1 waste to ore ratio globally
- Norilsk Nickel diesel spill 2020 released 21 kt fuel affecting 350 km2 Arctic tundra
- HPAL nickel process water use 1,000 m3 per ton Ni, high risk in water-scarce areas
- Biodiversity loss at 80% of nickel mines in tropical rainforests like Indonesia/Philippines
- Nickel recycling rate globally 68% in 2022, highest among base metals
- Energy intensity for sulfide smelting 40 GJ/ton Ni vs HPAL 100 GJ/ton
- Acid mine drainage from nickel sulfides pH <4 affects 20% legacy sites
- Indonesia Weda Bay mine deforestation 5,000 ha by 2022 for nickel laterites
- SLN New Caledonia mine tailings dam failure risk high, storing 50 Mt waste
- Global nickel supply chain Scope 3 emissions 50 tCO2e/ton for batteries
- Ravensthorpe mine rehab cost $100M for 1,000 ha disturbed land Australia
- Bioleaching at Terrafame reduces sulfuric acid use by 90% vs traditional roast
- Nickel in wastewater from plating >1 mg/L toxic to aquatic life, regulated EU <0.5 mg/L
- Carbon footprint of Indonesian NPI 30 tCO2e/ton Ni vs Class 1 10 tCO2e/ton
- Morowali IMIP smelters SO2 emissions exceed 1,000 t/day without scrubbers 2022
- Recycling secondary nickel saves 75% energy vs primary production
- Water recycling rate at Ambatovy Madagascar 85%, reducing fresh use to 2 m3/t ore
- Airborne dust PM2.5 from nickel open pits >50 ug/m3 near communities Philippines
- ESG rating for nickel miners average 45/100, low due to tailings risks
- HPAL residue neutralization uses 5 t limestone per ton Ni, generating gypsum byproduct
- Coral reef damage near Goro mine New Caledonia from red mud discharge 500 ha
- Methane emissions from nickel mine waste dumps 0.5 tCH4/kt ore
- Sustainable nickel initiative (SNI) members produce 20% low-carbon nickel 2022
- Land rehabilitation success rate 60% for nickel laterite mines after 10 years
- PFAS chemicals detected in 30% nickel processing sites groundwater
Environment Interpretation
The nickel industry is a powerful engine of modern progress, yet it is fueled by a troubling paradox: it electrifies our future while simultaneously belching its carbon into our atmosphere, scarring our landscapes with its waste, and poisoning the very ecosystems it claims to advance.
Prices
- LME nickel price averaged $25,066 per metric ton in 2022, up 26% from 2021 amid supply fears
- Shanghai nickel futures averaged CNY 140,000 per ton ($20,000 USD) in 2022
- Nickel spot price peaked at $101,365 per ton on LME March 2022 due to short squeeze
- Global nickel market saw a 100 thousand metric ton surplus in 2022 per Wood Mackenzie
- Battery nickel demand grew 40% to 250 thousand metric tons in 2022, pushing Class 1 premiums
- Stainless steel consumption used 1,800 thousand metric tons nickel in 2022, 70% of total demand
- LME nickel inventory dropped to 20 thousand tons by end-2022 from 300 thousand in 2021
- Nickel premium for Rotterdam delivery averaged $1,200 per ton in 2022
- Chinese NPI nickel price averaged $15,000 per ton in 2022, lower than Class 1
- MHP nickel sulfate equivalent price reached $25,000 per ton in 2022
- Global nickel trade volume was 1,500 thousand metric tons in 2022, led by Indonesia exports ban lift partial
- Indonesia nickel ore exports totaled 50 million wet metric tons in 2022 before ban
- Russia nickel exports to China hit 150 thousand tons in 2022, evading some sanctions
- Nickel ETF (NNickel) traded average $30 per share reflecting spot prices in 2022
- All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for nickel averaged $12,000 per ton in 2022 globally
- High-purity Class 1 nickel traded at $30,000 per ton CFR Asia average in Q4 2022
- Ferronickel 20-30% Ni price averaged $18,000 per ton in 2022 Europe
- Nickel pig iron 10-15% Ni CFR China averaged $1,200 per ton %Ni basis 2022
- LME nickel 3-month forward curve backwardated by $2,000/ton end-2022
- Nickel options implied volatility averaged 40% in 2022 amid volatility
- Global nickel demand reached 2,800 thousand metric tons in 2022, up 5%
- EV battery nickel demand forecast to hit 500 kt by 2025 from 250 kt 2022
- Stainless steel slab production consumed 1,900 kt nickel in 2023 forecast
- Norilsk Nickel market cap was $40 billion USD end-2022 despite sanctions
- BHP Billiton nickel segment EBITDA $500 million in FY2022
- Vale SA nickel revenue $4.2 billion in 2022 from 170 kt sales
- Glencore nickel production revenue $2.8 billion from 90 kt in 2022
- LME nickel cash settlement $24,500/ton average Q1 2023
- Global stainless steel demand fell 2% to 52 mt in 2022, impacting nickel 1.8 mt use
- Class 2 nickel (NPI, ferronickel) share of supply rose to 50% in 2022 from 40% 2021
- Nickel sulphate hexahydrate price averaged $15,000/ton Ni contained in 2022 battery market
- Indonesia banned raw nickel ore exports Jan 2020, lifting processed only, affecting $5B trade
Prices Interpretation
Despite a staggering market surplus and a chaotic short squeeze, nickel's price surged on battery-driven FOMO, proving that in the modern economy, even a metal can have an identity crisis between stainless steel kitchens and electric car dreams.
Production
- In 2022, global nickel mine production totaled 3,300 thousand metric tons, marking a 9% increase from 2021 primarily driven by expansions in Indonesia and the Philippines
- Indonesia accounted for 49% of global nickel mine production in 2022 with 1,610 thousand metric tons, largely from laterite deposits processed via HPAL and RKEF technologies
- The Philippines produced 380 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022, representing 12% of global output despite regulatory challenges on mining operations
- Russia contributed 240 thousand metric tons of nickel mine production in 2022, mainly from sulfide deposits in Norilsk by Norilsk Nickel
- Australia produced 160 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022, with a focus on high-grade sulfide ores from Western Australia
- New Caledonia's nickel production reached 200 thousand metric tons in 2022, primarily from SLN's operations amid political instability
- Canada's nickel output was 130 thousand metric tons in 2022, led by Vale's Sudbury and Raglan mines
- China's nickel mine production was 120 thousand metric tons in 2022, supplemented heavily by imports for smelting
- Brazil produced 90 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022 from Vale's Onça Puma mine restart
- Global refined nickel production hit 2,900 thousand metric tons in 2022, with China dominating at 1,200 thousand metric tons
- Indonesia's HPAL projects contributed 150 thousand metric tons of nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in 2022
- Norilsk Nickel's refined nickel output was 210 thousand metric tons in 2022 despite logistics disruptions from sanctions
- BHP's Nickel West produced 72 thousand metric tons of nickel in FY2022, focusing on sustainable sulfide mining
- Glencore's Murrin Murrin mine in Australia output 42 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022 from laterite ores
- First Quantum's Ravensthorpe mine produced 35 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022 after operational ramp-up
- Sherritt International's Moa Joint Venture in Cuba yielded 30 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022
- PT Vale Indonesia produced 76 thousand metric tons of nickel in matte in 2022 from Sorowako operations
- Jinchuan Group's Jinchuan mine output was 100 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022, China's largest sulfide producer
- Eramet's SLN in New Caledonia produced 12 thousand metric tons of ferronickel in 2022 amid cost pressures
- Madagascar's Ambatovy mine ramped up to 35 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022 by Sherritt and partners
- Global Class 1 nickel production (high purity) was 1,400 thousand metric tons in 2022
- Indonesia's RKEF stainless steel slag byproduct yielded 1,200 thousand metric tons nickel equivalent in 2022
- Western Australia's nickel production declined 20% to 160 thousand metric tons in 2022 due to low prices
- Finland's Terrafame mine produced 15 thousand metric tons of nickel in 2022 from bioleach technology
- Koniambo Nickel SAS in New Caledonia output stalled at 10 thousand metric tons in 2022 due to funding issues
- Global nickel pig iron (NPI) production reached 1,600 thousand metric tons in 2022, mostly in China and Indonesia
- Tsingshan Holding Group's Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park produced 500 thousand metric tons NPI nickel in 2022
- Vale's VNC operations in New Caledonia contributed 20 thousand metric tons ferronickel before closure in 2022
- United States nickel mine production was negligible at under 10 thousand metric tons in 2022, reliant on recycling
- Global nickel production forecast for 2023 estimated at 3,500 thousand metric tons mine output
Production Interpretation
While Indonesia's staggering, tech-driven output of nearly half the world's nickel is reshaping global supply, it underscores a future where geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and market volatility are as abundant as the metal itself.
Reserves
- Identified nickel resources worldwide totaled 100 million metric tons as of 2022, with 95 million in laterites and 5 million in sulfides
- Indonesia holds 21 million metric tons of nickel reserves, 21% of global total, concentrated in Sulawesi laterite deposits
- Australia possesses 24 million metric tons of nickel resources, primarily laterites in Western Australia
- Brazil has 16 million metric tons of nickel resources, with major deposits in Goiás and Carajás
- Russia reserves stand at 7.4 million metric tons, dominated by Norilsk-Talnakh sulfide district
- New Caledonia holds 7.1 million metric tons of nickel resources in laterite profiles
- Philippines nickel resources estimated at 5 million metric tons, mostly laterites in Mindanao
- Canada has 2.5 million metric tons of nickel reserves from Sudbury and Thompson belts
- China possesses 3 million metric tons nickel resources, mainly Jinchuan sulfide
- Cuba's Moa and Nicaro deposits hold 1.5 million metric tons nickel laterite resources
- Madagascar's Ambatovy deposit contains 2.4 million metric tons nickel resources
- Guatemala's Fénix project by Solway has 0.8 million metric tons nickel resources
- Colombia's Cerromatoso mine resources at 0.5 million metric tons nickel laterite
- Global laterite nickel resources account for 95% of total at 95 million metric tons
- Sulfide nickel resources worldwide are 5 million metric tons, concentrated in few districts like Norilsk
- Indonesia's Weda Bay deposit alone has 5.5 million metric tons nickel resources
- Australia's Murrin Murrin resources measured at 1.2 million metric tons nickel
- Ravensthorpe deposit in WA has 0.9 million metric tons nickel resources
- Norilsk-Talnakh district resources exceed 10 million metric tons nickel equivalent
- Sudbury Basin, Canada, has 2 million metric tons historical nickel resources
- Ramu, Papua New Guinea, laterite resources at 1.1 million metric tons nickel
- Goro deposit, New Caledonia, proven reserves 1.7 million metric tons nickel
- Pomalaa, Indonesia, resources 1.5 million metric tons nickel laterite
- Voisey's Bay, Canada, has 0.15 million metric tons nickel reserves
- Eagle Mine, Michigan USA, resources 0.2 million metric tons nickel sulfide
- Julimar, WA Australia, new discovery with 0.5 million metric tons nickel potential
- Araguaia, Brazil, resources 1.9 million metric tons nickel laterite
- Greenbushes tantalum but nickel byproducts 0.3 million tons equivalent
- Global nickel reserve life at current production rates estimated at 30 years as of 2022
Reserves Interpretation
While the world's nickel is overwhelmingly lounging in tropical laterite deposits like a sunbather, the real power and headaches reside in a few concentrated, geologically intense sulfide districts that could spark a geopolitical brawl over a dwindling 30-year supply.
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