Key Takeaways
- In 2022, the total mortgage refinance volume in the US reached $2.7 trillion, representing 45% of all mortgage originations that year
- The mortgage refinance market size was valued at $1.8 trillion in 2021, growing at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2017 to 2021 due to historically low interest rates
- Refinance originations accounted for 68% of total mortgage originations in Q3 2021, the highest quarterly share since 2003
- Refinance applications spiked 500% in early 2021 compared to 2020 baseline
- Weekly refinance applications fell 45% in the week ending January 2024 to the lowest since 1996
- Cash-out refinance applications increased 18% YoY in Q3 2023, comprising 60% of total refi apps
- The average 30-year fixed refinance rate was 2.65% in January 2021, the lowest on record since 1971
- Refinance rates averaged 5.25% in Q4 2023, 250 basis points above 2021 lows
- Borrowers saved $150 billion in interest payments via refinancing in 2021 at sub-3% rates
- Homeowners aged 35-44 comprised 38% of refinance borrowers in 2021, seeking rate drops
- 62% of 2021 refinancers were millennials with home equity over 20%
- Repeat refinancers made up 25% of 2021 volume, averaging 740 FICO scores
- Dodd-Frank Act reduced refi denial rates for subprime borrowers by 15% post-2014
- Fed rate hikes from 0.25% to 5.5% in 2022-2023 caused 80% drop in refi activity
- CARES Act forbearance allowed 4 million refis indirectly via payment relief in 2020
The refinance industry saw a brief boom before plunging due to soaring interest rates.
Borrower Profiles and Demographics
- Homeowners aged 35-44 comprised 38% of refinance borrowers in 2021, seeking rate drops
- 62% of 2021 refinancers were millennials with home equity over 20%
- Repeat refinancers made up 25% of 2021 volume, averaging 740 FICO scores
- Female-headed households refinanced at 15% higher rate than male in 2022 equity boom
- Borrowers in suburbs accounted for 55% of refi apps in 2021 vs 25% urban
- Average refinance borrower LTV was 65% in 2023, up from 55% in low-rate 2021
- 45% of cash-out refinancers were aged 55+ tapping $100k+ equity in 2022
- First-time homeowners refinanced 12% of their loans in 2021, double 2019 rate
- Hispanic borrowers increased refi share to 14% in 2021 from 9% pre-pandemic
- Self-employed refinancers grew to 22% of apps in 2023 with alternative income docs
- Borrowers with DTI over 43% comprised 28% of approved refis in 2022
- Retirees aged 65+ did 8% of cash-out refis in 2023 for debt consolidation
- College-educated borrowers refinanced at 1.8x rate of non-college in 2021
- Midwest borrowers had highest refi rate per capita at 22% in 2021
Borrower Profiles and Demographics Interpretation
Interest Rates and Pricing
- The average 30-year fixed refinance rate was 2.65% in January 2021, the lowest on record since 1971
- Refinance rates averaged 5.25% in Q4 2023, 250 basis points above 2021 lows
- Borrowers saved $150 billion in interest payments via refinancing in 2021 at sub-3% rates
- The 15-year fixed refinance rate dipped to 2.09% in early 2021, enabling 40% equity extraction
- ARM refinance rates averaged 3.8% in 2023, attracting 15% of refinancers seeking lower payments
- Rate-and-term refinancers needed 0.75% rate drop incentive on average in 2022
- Jumbo refinance rates were 0.45% higher than conforming in 2023 averaging 6.1%
- Cash-out refi rates carried 0.25% premium over rate-term in 2021 at 2.9% average
- FHA refinance rates averaged 3.1% in 2021, 20 bps below conventional
- VA refinance rates hit 2.5% IRRRL average in 2021, no appraisal required
- Refinance discount points averaged 0.8 in 2023 to buy down rates by 0.25%
- Closing costs for refinances averaged $5,200 in 2023, 2.3% of loan amount
- Break-even period for refinance averaged 2.5 years at 2021 low rates
- 5/1 ARM refi share rose to 12% in 2023 from 4% in 2021 as fixed rates climbed
- Refinance APR spread over contract rate was 0.18% in Q3 2023
- Borrowers with 760+ FICO saved 0.35% lower rates on refi vs sub-700 in 2022
Interest Rates and Pricing Interpretation
Market Size and Growth
- In 2022, the total mortgage refinance volume in the US reached $2.7 trillion, representing 45% of all mortgage originations that year
- The mortgage refinance market size was valued at $1.8 trillion in 2021, growing at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2017 to 2021 due to historically low interest rates
- Refinance originations accounted for 68% of total mortgage originations in Q3 2021, the highest quarterly share since 2003
- The global mortgage refinance market is projected to grow from $5.2 trillion in 2023 to $7.8 trillion by 2030 at a CAGR of 6.1%
- US refinance lending volume dropped 83% year-over-year in 2023 to $428 billion, the lowest since 1990s tracking began
- In 2020, refinance activity surged to $3.1 trillion, comprising 52% of the $5.9 trillion total mortgage market
- The refinance share of mortgage applications peaked at 79% in January 2021 before declining to 32% by end-2023
- Institutional investors held 28% of the refinance mortgage-backed securities market in 2022 valued at $750 billion
- Refinance loan production in Q4 2022 totaled $312 billion, down 62% from Q4 2021
- The US cash-out refinance segment within the market reached $195 billion in 2023, up 15% YoY
- Rate-term refinance volume was $1.2 trillion in 2021, representing 65% of total refinances
- Jumbo refinance loans over $1 million totaled $45 billion in 2022, 12% of high-balance refinances
- FHA refinance volume hit $250 billion in 2021, driven by streamline programs
- VA IRRRL refinances accounted for 22% of VA loans refinanced in 2022, totaling $180 billion
- The refinance market contraction in 2023 led to a 75% drop in originations to under $500 billion annually
- GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) backed 55% of refinance loans in 2022, amounting to $1.5 trillion
- Non-agency refinance securitizations reached $120 billion in 2021 peak
Market Size and Growth Interpretation
Refinance Volumes and Applications
- Refinance applications spiked 500% in early 2021 compared to 2020 baseline
- Weekly refinance applications fell 45% in the week ending January 2024 to the lowest since 1996
- Cash-out refinance applications increased 18% YoY in Q3 2023, comprising 60% of total refi apps
- Total refinance applications in 2021 averaged 150,000 per week, up from 25,000 in 2020
- Refinance share of applications dropped to 0.4% seasonally adjusted in late 2023, near record lows
- FHA streamline refinance applications surged 300% in 2021 to over 1 million loans
- VA refinance applications peaked at 45,000 per week in March 2021
- Purchase-refi spread in applications widened to 95% purchase in Q4 2023 from 20% in 2021
- Serial refinancers completed 2.5 refinances on average per borrower in 2020-2022 boom
- Online refinance applications grew to 42% of total in 2023 from 28% in 2019
- Refinance pull-through rate averaged 65% in 2021, dropping to 45% in high-rate 2023
- Texas led refinance applications with 8.5% market share in 2022 due to no-income refi programs
- California refinance volume totaled $450 billion in 2021, 18% of national total
- Florida saw 1.2 million refinance applications in 2021, up 450% YoY
Refinance Volumes and Applications Interpretation
Regulatory and Economic Influences
- Dodd-Frank Act reduced refi denial rates for subprime borrowers by 15% post-2014
- Fed rate hikes from 0.25% to 5.5% in 2022-2023 caused 80% drop in refi activity
- CARES Act forbearance allowed 4 million refis indirectly via payment relief in 2020
- QM rule amendments in 2021 boosted refi access for non-QM loans by 20%
- Inflation Reduction Act indirectly supported green refinances with $10k tax credits in 2023
- TRID rule implementation cut refi closing times by 10 days on average since 2015
- GSE pricing adjustments in 2022 added 0.125% to refi rates for high-LTV loans
- COVID-19 stimulus checks enabled 500k extra refis by boosting savings for closing costs
- Basel III capital rules increased lender refi margins by 15 bps in 2023
- Homeowner equity gains of $28 trillion since 2020 fueled $1 trillion cash-out refis
- Unemployment rate drop to 3.5% in 2023 supported 10% higher refi approvals
- Housing inventory shortage of 4 million units propped refi equity by 35% since 2019
- GDP growth slowdown to 1.6% in Q3 2023 correlated with 20% refi app decline
Regulatory and Economic Influences Interpretation
Sources & References
- Reference 1MBAmba.orgVisit source
- Reference 2STATISTAstatista.comVisit source
- Reference 3FREDDIEMACfreddiemac.comVisit source
- Reference 4MARKETSANDMARKETSmarketsandmarkets.comVisit source
- Reference 5INSIDEinside.comVisit source
- Reference 6FANNIEMAEfanniemae.comVisit source
- Reference 7SIFMAsifma.orgVisit source
- Reference 8BLACKKNIGHTblackknight.comVisit source
- Reference 9OPTIMASOFTWAREoptimasoftware.comVisit source
- Reference 10HUDhud.govVisit source
- Reference 11BENEFITSbenefits.va.govVisit source
- Reference 12NATIONALMORTGAGENEWSnationalmortgagenews.comVisit source
- Reference 13FHFAfhfa.govVisit source
- Reference 14HUDUSERhuduser.govVisit source
- Reference 15MORTGAGENEWS DAILYmortgagenews daily.comVisit source
- Reference 16ELLIE MAEellie mae.comVisit source
- Reference 17DOFdof.ca.govVisit source
- Reference 18FLORIDAREALTORSfloridarealtors.orgVisit source
- Reference 19BANKRATEbankrate.comVisit source
- Reference 20CONSUMERFINANCEconsumerfinance.govVisit source
- Reference 21PMMSpmms.freddiemac.comVisit source
- Reference 22NEWYORKFEDnewyorkfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 23NERDWALLETnerdwallet.comVisit source
- Reference 24ROCKETMORTGAGErocketmortgage.comVisit source
- Reference 25LENDINGTREElendingtree.comVisit source
- Reference 26VETERANSUNITEDveteransunited.comVisit source
- Reference 27CLOSINGCORPclosingcorp.comVisit source
- Reference 28MORTGAGE-NEWS-DAILYmortgage-news-daily.comVisit source
- Reference 29FFIECffiec.govVisit source
- Reference 30MYFICOmyfico.comVisit source
- Reference 31NARnar.realtorVisit source
- Reference 32CORELOGICcorelogic.comVisit source
- Reference 33ZILLOWzillow.comVisit source
- Reference 34ELLIEMAEelliemae.comVisit source
- Reference 35CFPBcfpb.govVisit source
- Reference 36AARPaarp.orgVisit source
- Reference 37URBANurban.orgVisit source
- Reference 38FEDERALRESERVEfederalreserve.govVisit source
- Reference 39URBANINSTITUTEurbaninstitute.orgVisit source
- Reference 40ENERGYenergy.govVisit source
- Reference 41BROOKINGSbrookings.eduVisit source
- Reference 42FDICfdic.govVisit source
- Reference 43BLSbls.govVisit source
- Reference 44BEAbea.govVisit source






