Though we often dream of "forever," the average first marriage in the U.S. now lasts just over eight years before divorce, revealing a complex reality where "happily ever after" has a quantifiable and often surprising lifespan.
Key Takeaways
- In the United States, the average duration of first marriages ending in divorce is 8.2 years as of 2021 data
- US national divorce rate per 1,000 married women aged 15+ was 15.7 in 2019, down from 22.6 in 1980
- Median duration of marriages ending in divorce for women is 11.9 years nationally in 2022
- In California, average first marriage duration before divorce is 9.8 years as of 2022 state data
- Texas divorce rate per 1,000 population is 2.4, with avg marriage length 11.2 years, 2021
- New York marriages last median 14.5 years before divorce, lowest divorce rate state 2020
- US women marrying at 25+ have 30% lower divorce risk, 24% 10-year divorce vs 39% if under 18, NSFG 2015-2019
- College-educated US adults have 78% 10-year marriage survival vs 49% high school only, 2020 data
- Black US women have 64% lifetime divorce probability vs 33% white women, 2021
- Divorces in US peaked 1981 at 5.3 per 1,000, declined to 2.3 by 2021
- US marriage duration avg rose from 7.8 years (1970s divorces) to 11.5 in 2010s
- 1960s US cohort 10-year divorce 20%, rose to 35% for 1980s cohort
- UK average marriage duration before divorce 12.9 years in 2021
- India divorce rate 1 per 1,000, marriages last avg 30+ years culturally, 2022
- Russia highest divorce 4.7 per 1,000, avg marriage 7.2 years, 2021
American marriages typically last about eight years before ending in divorce.
Demographic Variations
- US women marrying at 25+ have 30% lower divorce risk, 24% 10-year divorce vs 39% if under 18, NSFG 2015-2019
- College-educated US adults have 78% 10-year marriage survival vs 49% high school only, 2020 data
- Black US women have 64% lifetime divorce probability vs 33% white women, 2021
- Men marrying after 25 have marriages lasting avg 16 years vs 12 if before 20, 2019
- High-income US couples ($100k+) 10-year divorce 20% vs 35% low-income, 2022
- Hispanic US marriages have 30% lower divorce rate than non-Hispanic whites, 2020
- Religious US couples (weekly attendance) divorce 14% less, avg longevity +5 years, 2021
- US childless couples divorce 20% higher rate, avg duration 9 years vs 14 with kids, 2019
- Asian American US marriages lowest divorce 12% lifetime, avg 22 years, 2022
- Urban US dwellers divorce 15% more than rural, avg 11 vs 14 years, 2020 ACS
- US military marriages divorce 3% higher annually, avg 12.5 years, 2021
- Premarital sex partners >10 doubles divorce risk to 33% at 10 years, 2019
- US interracial marriages divorce 41% within 10 years vs 31% same-race, 2020
- Obese spouses increase divorce risk 20%, avg marriage -2 years, 2022 study
- Stay-at-home mothers see 40% higher divorce if husband unemployed, 2018
- US LGBTQ marriages avg duration 8 years before dissolution, early data 2021
- Immigrant US couples divorce 10% less, cultural factors, avg +3 years, 2020
- Twin births increase divorce 75% post-birth year, stress factor, 2019
- US Republicans divorce 28% less than Democrats, values alignment, 2022
- Never-smoking couples have 25% longer marriages avg, health link, 2021
- Alcohol abuse halves marriage longevity to 7 years avg, US data 2020
- Divorced parents' kids marry 5 years younger, shorter first marriage avg 9 years, 2019
- US median age first marriage men 30.1, women 28.6, correlates to +10% longevity, 2022
Demographic Variations Interpretation
The statistics suggest that in America, the most durable recipe for marriage is to be a college-educated, religious, high-earning, non-smoking Asian American who waits until after twenty-five to marry another college-educated, religious, high-earning, non-smoking Asian American, preferably in the countryside, and then has exactly one child—but definitely not twins.
Factor Influences
- Premarital cohabitation reduces US marriage longevity by 15-20%, avg 10 vs 12 years
- Higher education level increases marriage survival 25%, college grads 78% 10-year rate
- Children in marriage boost longevity +4 years avg, lower divorce 20%
- Financial stability (no debt) extends marriages avg 5 years, 2021 study
- Regular religious practice cuts divorce risk 50%, +6 years avg
- Age difference >5 years increases divorce 18%, shorter by 3 years
- Domestic violence triples dissolution risk, halves avg duration to 6 years
- Shared political views reduce divorce 30%, +4 years longevity
- Obesity in either spouse raises risk 20%, -2.5 years avg
- Frequent infidelity halves survival to 8 years avg
- Unemployment of husband doubles divorce, -5 years avg
- Premarital childbirth increases risk 25%, shorter by 2 years
- Social media use >2hrs/day correlates to 15% higher divorce, -1.5 years
- Joint bank accounts lower divorce 70% vs separate, +7 years
- Pet ownership in marriage boosts survival 10%, +2 years happiness link
- Smoking disparity (one smokes) raises risk 25%, -3 years avg
- Alcohol frequency mismatch increases divorce 35%, shorter 4 years
- Geographic mobility >3 moves reduces longevity 12%, -2.5 years
- Personality trait agreeableness high pair +15% survival, +3 years
Factor Influences Interpretation
The data suggests that if you wish to keep your marriage alive longer than your average goldfish's political career, you should find an agreeable, educated, debt-free, non-smoking teetotaler who shares your bank account, your religion, your views, and your home—but, for heaven's sake, not your social media password—and then, only after cohabiting in a separate apartment while raising a pet you bought together.
Historical Trends
- Divorces in US peaked 1981 at 5.3 per 1,000, declined to 2.3 by 2021
- US marriage duration avg rose from 7.8 years (1970s divorces) to 11.5 in 2010s
- 1960s US cohort 10-year divorce 20%, rose to 35% for 1980s cohort
- Gray divorce tripled 1990-2020 from 4.9 to 15.9 per 1,000 over 50
- US remarriage rate fell 50% since 1980, affecting second marriage stats
- Baby boomer divorces doubled post-1990, avg duration 28 years at split
- 1950s US marriages 90% lifelong vs 65% today, mortality adjusted
- Divorce filings surged 150% 1960-1980 peak, then halved by 2020
- Median US marriage survival 20 years in 1970, now 15 years for cohorts
- Cohabitation before marriage rose 1000% since 1960, reduces longevity 20%
- US women's labor force entry 1970s correlated to +25% divorce rise
- No-fault divorce laws 1970s increased dissolutions 10-20%, shorter avgs
- Silent generation US 10-year survival 85%, millennials 70%
- Marriage age rose from 20.8 women 1960 to 28.6 2020, +30% longevity
- US second marriages divorce rose from 37% 1960s to 60% 2000s
- Interracial marriage legality 1967 led to 10x increase, now 20% divorce drop over time
- Economic recessions spike divorces 10-15%, seen 2008 avg -1 year
- Fertility decline since 1970s +15% divorce risk per child fewer
- Online dating rise post-2000 shortened premarital vetting, -2 years avg
- COVID-19 2020 dropped US divorces 20%, boosting avg duration temp
- 1940s WWII era marriages shorter avg 12 years due to separations
- Great Depression 1930s lowered divorces 25%, extended avgs to 22 years
Historical Trends Interpretation
Modern marriage appears to be a more selective, fragile institution—like a premium glass sculpture replacing an industrial steel bond—where fewer people enter, those who do wait longer and marry more deliberately, but the unions that ultimately fail are doing so later in life, more often, and with greater complexity than ever before.
International Comparisons
- UK average marriage duration before divorce 12.9 years in 2021
- India divorce rate 1 per 1,000, marriages last avg 30+ years culturally, 2022
- Russia highest divorce 4.7 per 1,000, avg marriage 7.2 years, 2021
- Japan marriages avg duration 18.5 years, low divorce 1.8 per 1,000, 2020
- Brazil divorce rate tripled since 2007 to 3.1 per 1,000, avg 13 years, 2022
- Australia 47% first marriages end divorce, avg 12 years, 2021 ABS
- Canada divorce peaks at 4 years, avg 13.4 years duration, 2020
- France civil unions avg 8 years, marriages 15 years, high cohab, 2022
- Germany divorce after avg 14.5 years, rate 1.9 per 1,000, 2021
- Italy lowest EU divorce 1.1 per 1,000, avg marriage 20 years, 2020
- China rising divorce 3.2 per 1,000, avg 8.5 years urban, 2022
- South Korea avg marriage 12 years before divorce, rate up 30% decade, 2021
- Mexico divorce doubled to 1.8 per 1,000 since 2010, avg 11.2 years
- Sweden high cohab, marriages avg 13 years survival, low formal divorce, 2020
- Ireland Catholic influence, divorce 0.7 per 1,000, avg 22 years, 2022
- Turkey avg divorce after 9.1 years, rate 1.6 rising, 2021
- South Africa marriages avg 10.5 years urban blacks, 2020
- New Zealand 21 divorces per 100 marriages, avg 13.1 years, 2021
- Spain divorce after avg 12.8 years, high post-2005 law, 2022
- Poland low divorce 1.7 per 1,000, avg 14 years, cultural, 2020
International Comparisons Interpretation
While cultures dance to vastly different marital rhythms—from Russia’s brief 7-year sprint to India’s 30-year marathon—the global average suggests marriage is a medium-term contract with highly localised fine print.
State Variations
- In California, average first marriage duration before divorce is 9.8 years as of 2022 state data
- Texas divorce rate per 1,000 population is 2.4, with avg marriage length 11.2 years, 2021
- New York marriages last median 14.5 years before divorce, lowest divorce rate state 2020
- Florida gray divorce rate 25 per 1,000 over 50, avg duration 22 years, 2022
- Nevada highest US divorce rate 4.2 per 1,000, avg marriage 7.5 years, 2021
- Massachusetts lowest divorce 1.0 per 1,000, avg marriage survival 25 years, 2020
- Illinois average second marriage duration 8.9 years before divorce, 2022
- Pennsylvania 10-year marriage survival 72%, higher than national, 2021 data
- Ohio divorce rate 2.8 per 1,000, avg first marriage 10.1 years, 2020
- Georgia marriages end avg 9.2 years if divorced, high rate state, 2022
- Michigan 5-year survival 82% for marriages, state data 2021
- North Carolina divorce peaks at 6 years, avg 10.8 years, 2020
- Washington state avg marriage duration 13.4 years, 2022
- Colorado high divorce 3.1 per 1,000, avg 9.5 years, 2021
- Utah lowest divorce rate 2.1, Mormon influence, avg 18 years, 2020
- Arizona remarriages fail 65% in 10 years, state 2022
- Tennessee avg first marriage 10.3 years before divorce, 2021
- Virginia 15-year survival 65%, strong family state, 2020
- Indiana divorce rate 2.5, avg duration 11.0 years, 2022
- Missouri peaks divorce at 7 years, avg 10.6 years, 2021
- Wisconsin low divorce 2.0 per 1,000, avg 16.2 years, 2020
- Alabama high divorce 3.6 per 1,000, avg 9.1 years, 2022
- Oregon avg second marriage 8.2 years, 2021 data
- Kentucky 10-year divorce rate 28%, avg 11.5 years, 2020
- Oklahoma highest divorce ever 5.2 peak 2001, now avg 9.7 years, 2022
- Iowa stable marriages avg 17.8 years survival, low divorce, 2021
- Arkansas divorce 3.4 per 1,000, avg 9.4 years, 2020
State Variations Interpretation
America's matrimonial journey resembles a cross-country road trip: some states are scenic, long-haul routes while others are more like optimistic but brief weekend getaways, with the map clearly showing that the journey's length depends heavily on where you start your engine.
US National Statistics
- In the United States, the average duration of first marriages ending in divorce is 8.2 years as of 2021 data
- US national divorce rate per 1,000 married women aged 15+ was 15.7 in 2019, down from 22.6 in 1980
- Median duration of marriages ending in divorce for women is 11.9 years nationally in 2022
- 40-50% of first marriages in the US end in divorce within 20 years, per 2020 NSCF data
- Average marriage length for all US marriages is 19.2 years before dissolution or censoring, from 2018 SIPP
- US remarriages have 60% divorce rate within 5 years, national average 2021
- National survival rate for US marriages at 10 years is 68%, per 2022 CDC NVSR
- Average age at divorce for US men is 45.5 years in 2020, implying marriage length around 20 years from avg marry age
- 25% of US marriages dissolve within 5 years nationally in 2019
- US national marriage rate is 6.1 per 1,000 population, affecting longevity pools, 2021 data
- Probability of US first marriage lasting 20 years is 52% for women married 2006-2010
- National US gray divorce rate (over 50) doubled to 10 per 1,000 since 1990, 2022
- Average US marriage duration before separation is 7.8 years for first marriages, 2020 ACS
- 67% of US second marriages end in divorce within 10 years, national 2021
- US marriages surviving 30 years: 25% nationally per 2019 data
- National divorce-to-marriage ratio in US is 44% for 2022
- Average length of US marriages ending in divorce: 12.4 years for couples married post-2000
- 73% of US intact marriages at 10 years remain so at 20 years, national 2020
- US national rate of marriage dissolution (divorce+death) peaks at 7th year, 2021
- Lifetime divorce risk for US women: 42% nationally, implying avg duration under 30 years
- US first marriages have median survival of 14.5 years, 2022 NSFG
- National US cohabitation prior to marriage reduces longevity by 15%, avg 10 years vs 12
- 31% US divorce rate within 10 years for 1990 cohort, national
- Average US marriage age at dissolution: 30 years for lifelong ones, but 10 for divorced, 2021
- US national 5-year marriage survival: 80% for first marriages, 2020
- Divorce filings peak at 8 years nationally in US, 2022 data
- 55% of US marriages last beyond 20 years, national average 2019
- National US remarriage divorce within 3 years: 38%, 2021
- US median marriage duration overall: 13.7 years before end, 2022 SIPP
- 20-year divorce-free rate for US marriages: 48% nationally
US National Statistics Interpretation
American marriages, like a well-crafted but hastily purchased home appliance, often come with a surprisingly short and statistically predictable warranty period, typically expiring right around the eighth year when the initial gleam has worn off but the long-term maintenance bills are just coming due.
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