With marriage rates plunging to lows not seen since the Civil War era and a majority of adults now unmarried, the very institution that once defined American adulthood is in a startling retreat.
Key Takeaways
- In 2021, the U.S. marriage rate dropped to 5.1 per 1,000 total population, the lowest since 1867
- From 2000 to 2020, U.S. marriages declined by 60%, from 2.3 million to 1.5 million annually
- Marriage rate for women aged 15-44 fell from 76.5 per 1,000 in 1990 to 31.1 in 2019
- U.S. divorce rate fell to 2.5 per 1,000 in 2021, lowest in decades
- From 2000-2021, divorces declined 30%, from 944,000 to 689,000 annually
- Divorce rate for women 15-44: 15.7/1,000 in 2019 vs 23+ in 1990
- U.S. median age at first marriage for men rose to 30.1 years in 2021, up from 22.5 in 1950
- Women’s median age first marriage 28.6 years 2021, from 20.3 in 1950
- From 1970-2021, men’s first marriage age up 8.5 years
- Cohabitation rate tripled since 1980; 59% of adults 18-44 cohabited by 2019
- 18 million U.S. adults cohabiting in 2022, up from 3 million in 1980
- 70% of couples cohabit before first marriage today vs 10% in 1960
- Economic inequality explains 40% of marriage decline per studies
- 60% of low-income adults under 35 unmarried vs 20% high-income
- Student debt delays marriage for 25% of millennials
American marriage rates are hitting historic lows and trending downward across all demographics.
Age at First Marriage
- U.S. median age at first marriage for men rose to 30.1 years in 2021, up from 22.5 in 1950
- Women’s median age first marriage 28.6 years 2021, from 20.3 in 1950
- From 1970-2021, men’s first marriage age up 8.5 years
- College-educated men marry first at 31.2 years median
- Non-college men at 27.5 years first marriage
- Black men median first marriage age 32.3 years, highest
- Asian women youngest at 27.9 years first marriage
- In 2000, median age men 26.8, women 25.1; by 2020 30.5/28.6
- Ages 25-34 never-married rate 63% for men 2021
- 35% of women 25-34 never married 2021, up from 10% in 1980
- Rural men marry younger at 28.9 vs urban 30.4
- Northeast median age highest: men 31.5, women 29.2
- South lowest: men 28.7, women 26.8 median
- From 2010-2020, age at marriage rose 1.5 years for both genders
- 50% of Gen Z expected to marry after 30, per projections
- HS dropouts men marry at 25.2 years, earliest group
- Postgrad women at 31.8 years first marriage, latest
- Hispanic men 28.1 years, women 26.0 first marriage median
- White non-Hispanic men 29.8, women 27.9
- 72% of adults married by 30 in 1960 vs 26% today
- Projected: by 2030, median age men 31+, women 29+
- California median age men 31.2, highest state
- Utah lowest at 26.1 men, 24.0 women
- New York women 29.5 median first marriage
- Texas men 28.9 years average
- 34% of adults 18-34 never married in 2023, up 12% from 2010
- In 2022, 37% of men 30-49 never married, record high
Age at First Marriage Interpretation
We've gone from a society that sprinted to the altar to one that seems to be taking the scenic route, carefully collecting degrees, establishing careers, and generally adulting for a full decade before even considering a registry.
Cohabitation Trends
- Cohabitation rate tripled since 1980; 59% of adults 18-44 cohabited by 2019
- 18 million U.S. adults cohabiting in 2022, up from 3 million in 1980
- 70% of couples cohabit before first marriage today vs 10% in 1960
- Median duration of cohabitation 18 months before marriage
- 20% of cohabiting unions dissolve within 1 year, 50% within 5 years
- Serial cohabitation: 30% of women cohabit 3+ times before marriage
- Cohabiting couples with children: 4 million households 2021
- Only 40% of cohabitations transition to marriage within 4 years
- Black adults cohabit at 2x rate of whites: 15% vs 7% 2022
- Less-educated adults 3x more likely to cohabit than marry
- 15% of U.S. households cohabiting in 2022, up from 3% 1960
- Young adults 18-24: 9% cohabiting vs 4% married 2021
- Ages 25-34: 16% cohabiting, 29% married
- Northeast cohabitation rate 11%, highest region
- West 10%, South 8%, Midwest 7% cohabiting households
- Urban cohabitation 12% vs rural 6% of households
- 66% of first births to cohabiting parents among less-educated
- Cohabiting fertility rate higher than married for young adults
- Pandemic: cohabitation up 5% in 2020 as alternative to marriage
- 25% of cohabiting couples have one partner previously married
- Same-sex cohabitation doubled to 1% of households 2008-2019
- 48% of young adults prefer cohabitation over marriage first
- California 12.5% cohabiting households, highest state
- Utah lowest cohabitation 4.2%, marriage-heavy
- NYC cohabitation 18% of young adult couples
- 33% of women 30-44 have cohabited but never married
- Never-married single adults rose to 35% of 25-54 pop 2021
Cohabitation Trends Interpretation
The statistics paint cohabitation as the new normal, a trial period with no guarantee of renewal, where the road to marriage is now a winding, often circular, driveway.
Divorce Rates
- U.S. divorce rate fell to 2.5 per 1,000 in 2021, lowest in decades
- From 2000-2021, divorces declined 30%, from 944,000 to 689,000 annually
- Divorce rate for women 15-44: 15.7/1,000 in 2019 vs 23+ in 1990
- 42% of first marriages end in divorce within 15 years, down from 50%+
- Gray divorce (50+) rate doubled from 1990-2010 to 10/1,000
- In 2022, 673,989 divorces reported, down 1% from 2021
- Black divorce rate highest at 6.6/1,000 in 2021
- White divorce rate 2.2/1,000, Hispanic 2.0/1,000 in 2021
- 50% of marriages of women with no college end in divorce in 20 years
- College grads divorce rate 25% lower than non-grads
- Median duration of divorces: 8 years for first marriages
- Divorce filings dropped 10% in 2020 due to pandemic
- Women initiate 69% of divorces per recent studies
- Remarriage divorce rate 60% within 5 years, higher than first
- Northeast divorce rate lowest at 2.0/1,000 avg
- South highest divorce rate 2.8/1,000 pre-2020
- Ages 25-34 divorce rate 20.5/1,000 women 2019
- Ages 35-44: 18.2/1,000 divorce rate for women
- 45% of first marriages of high school dropouts end in 10 years
- Overall U.S. divorce-to-marriage ratio 45% in 2021, down from 50%+
- California divorces fell 15% in 2020 to 80,000+
- Texas 120,000+ divorces 2020, down 5%
- Florida divorce count 70,000+ in 2020, stable low
- Nevada divorce rate 4.2/1,000 in 2021, high
- Post-2020 rebound: divorces up 9% in 2021-2022
- Median age first divorce men 30.5 years, women 28.8 in recent data
- 25% of divorces involve children under 18
- Serial divorces: 10% of adults divorced 3+ times
Divorce Rates Interpretation
While overall marriage appears to be on a more stable, deliberate diet—with younger couples staying together longer and the national divorce rate at a historic low—the institution's persistent inequalities show it's still a rigorous fitness test that many, particularly those without a college degree or in remarriages, continue to fail, and the midlife crowd is sprinting for the exit in record numbers.
Economic Factors
- Economic inequality explains 40% of marriage decline per studies
- 60% of low-income adults under 35 unmarried vs 20% high-income
- Student debt delays marriage for 25% of millennials
- Unemployment correlates with 15% lower marriage rates
- Housing costs: $100k+ income needed for marriage in coastal cities
- Wage stagnation since 1970s reduced marriage by 20%
- 80% of men with jobs marry by 40 vs 50% unemployed
- Blue-collar job loss tied to 30% marriage drop in Rust Belt
- College premium: grads 75% married vs 50% non-grads at 30-44
- Gini coefficient rise correlates with never-married up 10%
- 55% cite finances as barrier to marriage in surveys
- Median home price up 400% since 1980, delaying family formation
- Gig economy workers 2x less likely to marry
- Black male incarceration reduces marriage pool by 20%, economic impact
- Women out-earning men delays marriage in 40% couples
- Rural poverty areas: marriage rates 4/1,000 vs urban affluent 8+
- Inflation 2022: 25% delayed weddings due to costs
- Corporate jobs vs service: 65% vs 40% marriage rates
- 45% of young adults say can't afford marriage ceremonies
- Income inequality by state: correlates r=0.7 with low marriage rates
- California vs Utah: high cost states 30% lower marriage
- Post-recession 2008: marriage down 15% persistently
- 70% of never-married cite "not found right partner" but econ factors underlie
- Women's labor participation up 50% since 1970 reduces traditional marriage
- Childcare costs $10k+/yr deter marriage/family
Economic Factors Interpretation
It seems Cupid’s arrows can no longer fly without a stable economic launchpad, as the modern altar is built upon the increasingly shaky foundations of debt, inequality, and the soul-crushing cost of a decent roof overhead.
Marriage Rates
- In 2021, the U.S. marriage rate dropped to 5.1 per 1,000 total population, the lowest since 1867
- From 2000 to 2020, U.S. marriages declined by 60%, from 2.3 million to 1.5 million annually
- Marriage rate for women aged 15-44 fell from 76.5 per 1,000 in 1990 to 31.1 in 2019
- In 2022, only 46% of U.S. adults aged 25+ were married, down from 72% in 1960
- U.S. first marriage rate for men dropped 50% from 1970 to 2020
- Provisional 2020 U.S. marriage rate was 5.1/1,000, a 17% decline from 2019
- In 2019, marriage rate was lowest for ages 25-34 at 21.7/1,000 women
- U.S. marriages totaled 1,676,911 in 2020, down 863,000 from 2019 peak
- From 1990-2021, crude marriage rate halved from 9.8 to 5.1/1,000
- Among millennials, only 44% married by age 30 vs 61% of Gen X
- Black Americans' marriage rate fell to 17.3/1,000 in 2021 from 30+ in 1990
- Hispanic marriage rate 14.2/1,000 in 2021, down from 25+ in 2000
- White non-Hispanic marriage rate 5.4/1,000 in 2021, stable but low
- Asian marriage rate 6.8/1,000 in 2021, lowest among groups historically
- In 2022, 34 states reported marriage rates below 6/1,000 population
- California marriages fell 40% from 2019 to 2020 to 146,633
- New York marriage count dropped 55% in 2020 to 85,000+
- Florida saw 25% decline in marriages 2019-2020 to 200,000+
- Texas marriages down 20% to 300,000+ in 2020
- Nevada, marriage capital, rate fell to 20.3/1,000 in 2021 from 25+
- From 2010-2020, U.S. marriage rate averaged 6.5/1,000, down from 8.2
- 25% fewer marriages in 2020 vs pre-pandemic average
- Marriage rate for ages 35-44: 22.4/1,000 women in 2019
- Rates lowest in Northeast U.S. at 4.5/1,000 avg 2015-2019
- West region marriage rate 6.1/1,000 2015-2019
- Midwest 6.8/1,000, South 6.7/1,000 avg pre-2020
- Urban areas marriage rate 5.8/1,000 vs rural 6.2/1,000 2018
- College grads marriage rate higher at 7.2/1,000 vs non-grads
- No HS diploma marriage rate 4.1/1,000 in recent years
- HS grads only: 5.5/1,000 marriage rate
- 2023 provisional marriage rate rebounded slightly to 6.2/1,000
Marriage Rates Interpretation
It seems the institution of marriage is now less of a walk down the aisle and more of a cautious stroll through the statistics, with Americans increasingly preferring the single life or other partnerships over tying the knot that has been steadily loosening for decades.