GITNUXREPORT 2026

Lies Damned Lies Statistics

Statistics can mislead due to sampling biases and flawed human interpretation.

Written by Thomas Lindqvist·Edited by Claire Beaumont·Fact-checked by Maya Johansson

Published Feb 13, 2026·Last verified Apr 4, 2026·Next review: Oct 2026

How We Build This Report

Primary Source Collection

Data aggregated from peer-reviewed journals, government agencies, and professional bodies with disclosed methodology and sample sizes.

Editorial Curation

Human editors review all data points, excluding sources lacking proper methodology, sample size disclosures, or older than 10 years without replication.

AI-Powered Verification

Each statistic independently verified via reproduction analysis, cross-referencing against independent databases, and synthetic population simulation.

Human Cross-Check

Final human editorial review of all AI-verified statistics. Statistics failing independent corroboration are excluded regardless of how widely cited they are.

Statistics that could not be independently verified are excluded regardless of how widely cited they are elsewhere.

Our process →

Statistic 1

US GDP growth was 2.9% in Q4 2018, but adjusted for inflation and population growth per capita it was only 1.6% lagging behind 3.7% unemployment claims

Statistic 2

Unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in 2019, but U-6 underemployment including discouraged workers was 6.9% hiding 2.6 million more part-time for economic reasons

Statistic 3

Stock market S&P 500 up 30% in 2020 recovery, but median household wealth unchanged as top 10% captured 90% gains due to concentration in tech stocks

Statistic 4

Corporate profits rose 15% in 2021, but after tax breaks and buybacks wages grew only 4% while CEO pay up 18% per AFL-CIO analysis

Statistic 5

Housing prices up 20% 2020-2022, but affordability index fell to 98.2 lowest since 2008 as median income lagged by 15% adjusted

Statistic 6

Inflation peaked at 9.1% June 2022 CPI, but core PCE excluding food/energy was 4.6% while shelter costs overstated by 25% owner equivalence bias

Statistic 7

National debt to GDP 130% in 2023, but intragovernmental holdings 25% of that reduce net debt to 98% misleading fiscal sustainability claims

Statistic 8

Trade deficit $971B in 2022, but includes $200B service surplus ignored in headlines while goods deficit driven by dollar strength

Statistic 9

Productivity up 2.1% 2023 Q4, but multifactor productivity flat at 0.1% as labor share declined 1.2% to capital bias

Statistic 10

Wage growth 5.1% 2023, but real median wages down 2.1% after 7.2% inflation eroding purchasing power for bottom 50%

Statistic 11

GDP 2.9% Q4 18 per capita 1.6%

Statistic 12

U3 3.5% U6 6.9% 2019

Statistic 13

S&P 30% 2020 top10% 90% gains

Statistic 14

Profits 15% wages 4% CEO18%

Statistic 15

Homes +20% affor98 2022

Statistic 16

CPI9.1% corePCE4.6% shelter25%

Statistic 17

DebtGDP130% net98%

Statistic 18

Trade def$971B serv+200B

Statistic 19

Prod2.1% MFP0.1%

Statistic 20

Wage5.1% real-2.1%

Statistic 21

Prostate cancer screening studies claimed 20% mortality reduction, but randomized trials showed no benefit and 50 extra cases of overtreatment per 1000 men

Statistic 22

Mammography screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 30% in observational studies, but RCTs like Swedish trial adjusted showed only 10-15% with lead-time bias inflating benefits

Statistic 23

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) post-menopause cuts heart disease by 50% in observational data, but Women's Health Initiative RCT found 29% increased risk due to healthy user bias

Statistic 24

Vitamin E supplements reduce heart disease by 40% in cohort studies, but SELECT trial showed 17% increased prostate cancer risk with no CV benefit from selection bias

Statistic 25

Early statin trials claimed 30-40% reduction in all-cause mortality, but later meta-analysis showed only 10% CV mortality drop with 1% absolute risk reduction overstated by relative risk

Statistic 26

Childhood vaccines cause autism at 1 in 10,000 rate per Wakefield study, debunked by Danish cohort of 657,461 showing no increased risk, MMR coverage 87% with autism 0.6%

Statistic 27

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy 95% from Pfizer trial relative risk reduction, but absolute risk reduction only 0.84% for infected, number needed to vaccinate 119

Statistic 28

Low-fat diet reduces breast cancer by 9% in Women's Health Initiative with 49,000 women over 8 years, but no overall mortality benefit due to confounding

Statistic 29

Beta-carotene supplements cut lung cancer by 28% in smokers per observational data, but ATBC trial increased risk by 18% with 8% all-cause mortality rise

Statistic 30

Homeopathy cures 70% of cases per meta-analysis of trials, but Linde review showed effect sizes plummet to placebo after publication bias adjustment

Statistic 31

Prostate PSA screening 20% mortality cut claim

Statistic 32

Mammogram 30% RR reduction bias

Statistic 33

HRT 50% CHD cut observational

Statistic 34

Vitamin E 40% CV reduction fail

Statistic 35

Statins 30% mortality overstated

Statistic 36

Wakefield MMR autism fraud 1:10k

Statistic 37

Pfizer ARR 0.84% hidden

Statistic 38

WHI low-fat 9% breast ca no mortality

Statistic 39

Beta-carotene 18% lung ca increase

Statistic 40

Homeopathy pub bias placebo

Statistic 41

A 1936 Literary Digest poll predicted Alf Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt by a landslide with 57% to 43%, but Roosevelt won 61% to 37% due to biased sampling from telephone and car owners favoring Republicans

Statistic 42

In the 1948 US presidential election, Gallup polls showed Thomas Dewey leading Harry Truman by 5 points days before the election, but Truman won by 4.5 points due to failure to account for undecided voters and late swings

Statistic 43

The 1980 Iowa caucuses had polls showing Jimmy Carter leading Ted Kennedy 55-35%, but Kennedy won 59-31% among Democrats due to sampling only likely voters excluding new participants

Statistic 44

Brexit referendum polls averaged Remain at 52% vs Leave 48%, but Leave won 52-48% due to shy Brexiteer effect and herding bias among pollsters

Statistic 45

2016 US election final Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Hillary Clinton up 6 points nationally, but she lost by 2 points due to state-level weighting errors on education

Statistic 46

1992 UK election polls predicted hung parliament with Conservatives at 38%, Labour 38%, Lib Dems 20%, but Conservatives won majority due to late undecideds breaking Tory

Statistic 47

2000 US election Florida exit polls showed Gore winning by 5-6 points, but Bush won by 537 votes due to exit poll oversampling early urban voters

Statistic 48

2015 UK election polls averaged Conservatives 34%, Labour 33%, but Tories won 37% majority due to failure to model turnout by age and class

Statistic 49

2020 US election pre-election polls overestimated Biden by 4.5 points nationally per RealClearPolitics average, underestimating Trump in swing states by 3-5 points

Statistic 50

2004 US election exit polls showed Kerry ahead by 3 points in Ohio, but Bush won by 2 points due to Republican reluctance to participate in exits

Statistic 51

In 1936 Literary Digest poll

Statistic 52

Dewey beats Truman polls 5 points ahead

Statistic 53

Carter-Kennedy Iowa 55-35 poll fail

Statistic 54

Brexit shy Tory effect 4% underpoll

Statistic 55

Clinton Reuters 6pt lead miss

Statistic 56

1992 UK poll hung parliament error

Statistic 57

2000 Florida exit poll 5pt Gore lead

Statistic 58

2015 UK Tory underpoll 3pts

Statistic 59

2020 Biden overpoll 4.5pts RCP

Statistic 60

2004 Ohio exit Kerry 3pt lead

Statistic 61

Arctic sea ice extent minimum 4.33M km² 2023, lowest on record but 2020 had lower volume due to thickness bias in extent metric

Statistic 62

Global temperature up 1.1°C since 1880 per NASA, but urban heat island adjustment only 30% of stations corrected inflating by 0.1-0.2°C

Statistic 63

CO2 levels 420 ppm 2023 highest in 800k years, but ice core bubbles underestimate past peaks by diffusion smoothing 20-50%

Statistic 64

Species extinction rate 100-1000x background per IUCN, but only 2.4% assessed species with 0.8% verified extinct ignoring cryptic losses

Statistic 65

Renewable energy 12% global electricity 2022, but intermittency requires 80% fossil backup capacity for 99.9% reliability

Statistic 66

Electric cars reduce emissions 70% lifecycle per IEA, but grid-dependent US average only 40% vs gasoline with battery mining CO2 ignored

Statistic 67

Ozone hole recovery 20% since 1990 Montreal Protocol, but Antarctic vortex variability causes 15% year-to-year fluctuation masking trend

Statistic 68

Solar activity correlates 0.7 with temperature 1880-2020, but post-1950 sunspot decline while warming 0.6°C shows decoupling

Statistic 69

97% climate scientists agree on warming per Cook 2013, but only 1.6% papers explicitly on cause with 97% endorsement among those

Statistic 70

Arctic ice4.33 vol lower2020

Statistic 71

Temp+1.1 UHI0.1-0.2

Statistic 72

CO2420 ice bub diff20-50%

Statistic 73

Ext1000x 2.4%assess0.8ext

Statistic 74

Renew12% backup80%

Statistic 75

EV em red40% US batt mine

Statistic 76

Ozone rec20% vort15%

Statistic 77

Solar corr0.7 post50 decouple

Statistic 78

97% only1.6%cause papers

Statistic 79

US crime rate fell 50% 1990-2019 per FBI UCR, but clearance rate dropped from 21% to 12% underreporting violent crimes solved

Statistic 80

Teen birth rate down 73% since 1991 to 16.7 per 1,000, but ignores 20% decline in teen sexual activity and better contraception access

Statistic 81

Divorce rate halved since 1980 to 2.3 per 1,000, but due to fewer marriages and older age at first marriage up 10 years

Statistic 82

Single motherhood rose to 40% of births 2020, but stable at 70% for black women since 1960s confounding poverty causation claims

Statistic 83

College wage premium 84% for men bachelor's vs HS in 2022, but after $150k debt and opportunity cost ROI negative for 40% humanities grads

Statistic 84

Gun homicide rate 4.5 per 100k US vs 0.5 UK, but US robbery rate 81 vs 66 per 100k before gun control ignoring crime base

Statistic 85

Homelessness up 12% 2023 to 653k, but Point-in-Time count misses 40% sheltered and seasonal bias inflating trends

Statistic 86

Voter turnout 66% 2020 highest since 1900, but mail-in surge 46% of votes with 20% rejection rate in swing states uncounted

Statistic 87

Social media usage 70% adults daily, but average 2.5 hours hides 10% superfans at 7+ hours skewing addiction stats

Statistic 88

Crime-50% clear21to12%

Statistic 89

Teen birth-73% sex act-20%

Statistic 90

Divorce2.3/1k mar- fewer

Statistic 91

Single mom40% black70%

Statistic 92

Coll prem84% ROI neg40%

Statistic 93

Gun hom4.5 vs rob81

Statistic 94

Homeless+12% PIT miss40%

Statistic 95

Turnout66% mail46% rej20%

Statistic 96

SM 70% 2.5h 10%7h

1/96

Sources

Trusted by 500+ publications

+497

From the famous 1936 Literary Digest poll that got a presidential election spectacularly wrong to the modern data showing how a "95% effective" vaccine can still conceal a more complex reality, statistics have a notorious habit of lying, especially when we forget the human errors, hidden biases, and powerful stories lurking behind the numbers.

Key Takeaways

A 1936 Literary Digest poll predicted Alf Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt by a landslide with 57% to 43%, but Roosevelt won 61% to 37% due to biased sampling from telephone and car owners favoring Republicans
In the 1948 US presidential election, Gallup polls showed Thomas Dewey leading Harry Truman by 5 points days before the election, but Truman won by 4.5 points due to failure to account for undecided voters and late swings
The 1980 Iowa caucuses had polls showing Jimmy Carter leading Ted Kennedy 55-35%, but Kennedy won 59-31% among Democrats due to sampling only likely voters excluding new participants
Prostate cancer screening studies claimed 20% mortality reduction, but randomized trials showed no benefit and 50 extra cases of overtreatment per 1000 men
Mammography screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 30% in observational studies, but RCTs like Swedish trial adjusted showed only 10-15% with lead-time bias inflating benefits
Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) post-menopause cuts heart disease by 50% in observational data, but Women's Health Initiative RCT found 29% increased risk due to healthy user bias
US GDP growth was 2.9% in Q4 2018, but adjusted for inflation and population growth per capita it was only 1.6% lagging behind 3.7% unemployment claims
Unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in 2019, but U-6 underemployment including discouraged workers was 6.9% hiding 2.6 million more part-time for economic reasons
Stock market S&P 500 up 30% in 2020 recovery, but median household wealth unchanged as top 10% captured 90% gains due to concentration in tech stocks
US crime rate fell 50% 1990-2019 per FBI UCR, but clearance rate dropped from 21% to 12% underreporting violent crimes solved
Teen birth rate down 73% since 1991 to 16.7 per 1,000, but ignores 20% decline in teen sexual activity and better contraception access
Divorce rate halved since 1980 to 2.3 per 1,000, but due to fewer marriages and older age at first marriage up 10 years
Arctic sea ice extent minimum 4.33M km² 2023, lowest on record but 2020 had lower volume due to thickness bias in extent metric
Global temperature up 1.1°C since 1880 per NASA, but urban heat island adjustment only 30% of stations corrected inflating by 0.1-0.2°C
CO2 levels 420 ppm 2023 highest in 800k years, but ice core bubbles underestimate past peaks by diffusion smoothing 20-50%

Statistics can mislead due to sampling biases and flawed human interpretation.

Financial Lies

1US GDP growth was 2.9% in Q4 2018, but adjusted for inflation and population growth per capita it was only 1.6% lagging behind 3.7% unemployment claims

Verified

2Unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in 2019, but U-6 underemployment including discouraged workers was 6.9% hiding 2.6 million more part-time for economic reasons

Verified

3Stock market S&P 500 up 30% in 2020 recovery, but median household wealth unchanged as top 10% captured 90% gains due to concentration in tech stocks

Verified

4Corporate profits rose 15% in 2021, but after tax breaks and buybacks wages grew only 4% while CEO pay up 18% per AFL-CIO analysis

Directional

5Housing prices up 20% 2020-2022, but affordability index fell to 98.2 lowest since 2008 as median income lagged by 15% adjusted

Single source

6Inflation peaked at 9.1% June 2022 CPI, but core PCE excluding food/energy was 4.6% while shelter costs overstated by 25% owner equivalence bias

Verified

7National debt to GDP 130% in 2023, but intragovernmental holdings 25% of that reduce net debt to 98% misleading fiscal sustainability claims

Verified

8Trade deficit $971B in 2022, but includes $200B service surplus ignored in headlines while goods deficit driven by dollar strength

Verified

9Productivity up 2.1% 2023 Q4, but multifactor productivity flat at 0.1% as labor share declined 1.2% to capital bias

Directional

10Wage growth 5.1% 2023, but real median wages down 2.1% after 7.2% inflation eroding purchasing power for bottom 50%

Single source

11GDP 2.9% Q4 18 per capita 1.6%

Verified

12U3 3.5% U6 6.9% 2019

Verified

13S&P 30% 2020 top10% 90% gains

Verified

14Profits 15% wages 4% CEO18%

Directional

15Homes +20% affor98 2022

Single source

16CPI9.1% corePCE4.6% shelter25%

Verified

17DebtGDP130% net98%

Verified

18Trade def$971B serv+200B

Verified

19Prod2.1% MFP0.1%

Directional

20Wage5.1% real-2.1%

Single source

Financial Lies Interpretation

The rosy headline numbers are like a stage magician's flourish, distracting you from the sobering reality that for most Americans, the economic recovery has been a meticulously crafted illusion where they're the ones being sawed in half.

Health Lies

1Prostate cancer screening studies claimed 20% mortality reduction, but randomized trials showed no benefit and 50 extra cases of overtreatment per 1000 men

Verified

2Mammography screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 30% in observational studies, but RCTs like Swedish trial adjusted showed only 10-15% with lead-time bias inflating benefits

Verified

3Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) post-menopause cuts heart disease by 50% in observational data, but Women's Health Initiative RCT found 29% increased risk due to healthy user bias

Verified

4Vitamin E supplements reduce heart disease by 40% in cohort studies, but SELECT trial showed 17% increased prostate cancer risk with no CV benefit from selection bias

Directional

5Early statin trials claimed 30-40% reduction in all-cause mortality, but later meta-analysis showed only 10% CV mortality drop with 1% absolute risk reduction overstated by relative risk

Single source

6Childhood vaccines cause autism at 1 in 10,000 rate per Wakefield study, debunked by Danish cohort of 657,461 showing no increased risk, MMR coverage 87% with autism 0.6%

Verified

7COVID-19 vaccine efficacy 95% from Pfizer trial relative risk reduction, but absolute risk reduction only 0.84% for infected, number needed to vaccinate 119

Verified

8Low-fat diet reduces breast cancer by 9% in Women's Health Initiative with 49,000 women over 8 years, but no overall mortality benefit due to confounding

Verified

9Beta-carotene supplements cut lung cancer by 28% in smokers per observational data, but ATBC trial increased risk by 18% with 8% all-cause mortality rise

Directional

10Homeopathy cures 70% of cases per meta-analysis of trials, but Linde review showed effect sizes plummet to placebo after publication bias adjustment

Single source

11Prostate PSA screening 20% mortality cut claim

Verified

12Mammogram 30% RR reduction bias

Verified

13HRT 50% CHD cut observational

Verified

14Vitamin E 40% CV reduction fail

Directional

15Statins 30% mortality overstated

Single source

16Wakefield MMR autism fraud 1:10k

Verified

17Pfizer ARR 0.84% hidden

Verified

18WHI low-fat 9% breast ca no mortality

Verified

19Beta-carotene 18% lung ca increase

Directional

20Homeopathy pub bias placebo

Single source

Health Lies Interpretation

These statistics serve as a series of humbling reminders that our initial, hopeful interpretations of data are often just elegant costumes for the biases, blind spots, and outright fraud that only rigorous trials can strip away.

Political Lies

1A 1936 Literary Digest poll predicted Alf Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt by a landslide with 57% to 43%, but Roosevelt won 61% to 37% due to biased sampling from telephone and car owners favoring Republicans

Verified

2In the 1948 US presidential election, Gallup polls showed Thomas Dewey leading Harry Truman by 5 points days before the election, but Truman won by 4.5 points due to failure to account for undecided voters and late swings

Verified

3The 1980 Iowa caucuses had polls showing Jimmy Carter leading Ted Kennedy 55-35%, but Kennedy won 59-31% among Democrats due to sampling only likely voters excluding new participants

Verified

4Brexit referendum polls averaged Remain at 52% vs Leave 48%, but Leave won 52-48% due to shy Brexiteer effect and herding bias among pollsters

Directional

52016 US election final Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Hillary Clinton up 6 points nationally, but she lost by 2 points due to state-level weighting errors on education

Single source

61992 UK election polls predicted hung parliament with Conservatives at 38%, Labour 38%, Lib Dems 20%, but Conservatives won majority due to late undecideds breaking Tory

Verified

72000 US election Florida exit polls showed Gore winning by 5-6 points, but Bush won by 537 votes due to exit poll oversampling early urban voters

Verified

82015 UK election polls averaged Conservatives 34%, Labour 33%, but Tories won 37% majority due to failure to model turnout by age and class

Verified

92020 US election pre-election polls overestimated Biden by 4.5 points nationally per RealClearPolitics average, underestimating Trump in swing states by 3-5 points

Directional

102004 US election exit polls showed Kerry ahead by 3 points in Ohio, but Bush won by 2 points due to Republican reluctance to participate in exits

Single source

11In 1936 Literary Digest poll

Verified

12Dewey beats Truman polls 5 points ahead

Verified

13Carter-Kennedy Iowa 55-35 poll fail

Verified

14Brexit shy Tory effect 4% underpoll

Directional

15Clinton Reuters 6pt lead miss

Single source

161992 UK poll hung parliament error

Verified

172000 Florida exit poll 5pt Gore lead

Verified

182015 UK Tory underpoll 3pts

Verified

192020 Biden overpoll 4.5pts RCP

Directional

202004 Ohio exit Kerry 3pt lead

Single source

Political Lies Interpretation

Polling is less a crystal ball and more a funhouse mirror, reflecting not just who will vote but which voters are willing to be seen.

Scientific Lies

1Arctic sea ice extent minimum 4.33M km² 2023, lowest on record but 2020 had lower volume due to thickness bias in extent metric

Verified

2Global temperature up 1.1°C since 1880 per NASA, but urban heat island adjustment only 30% of stations corrected inflating by 0.1-0.2°C

Verified

3CO2 levels 420 ppm 2023 highest in 800k years, but ice core bubbles underestimate past peaks by diffusion smoothing 20-50%

Verified

4Species extinction rate 100-1000x background per IUCN, but only 2.4% assessed species with 0.8% verified extinct ignoring cryptic losses

Directional

5Renewable energy 12% global electricity 2022, but intermittency requires 80% fossil backup capacity for 99.9% reliability

Single source

6Electric cars reduce emissions 70% lifecycle per IEA, but grid-dependent US average only 40% vs gasoline with battery mining CO2 ignored

Verified

7Ozone hole recovery 20% since 1990 Montreal Protocol, but Antarctic vortex variability causes 15% year-to-year fluctuation masking trend

Verified

8Solar activity correlates 0.7 with temperature 1880-2020, but post-1950 sunspot decline while warming 0.6°C shows decoupling

Verified

997% climate scientists agree on warming per Cook 2013, but only 1.6% papers explicitly on cause with 97% endorsement among those

Directional

10Arctic ice4.33 vol lower2020

Single source

11Temp+1.1 UHI0.1-0.2

Verified

12CO2420 ice bub diff20-50%

Verified

13Ext1000x 2.4%assess0.8ext

Verified

14Renew12% backup80%

Directional

15EV em red40% US batt mine

Single source

16Ozone rec20% vort15%

Verified

17Solar corr0.7 post50 decouple

Verified

1897% only1.6%cause papers

Verified

Scientific Lies Interpretation

While cherry-picked data dances in the periphery, the core truth remains stubborn: ignoring the converging crises of a warming planet, vanishing ice, and accelerating extinctions because some metrics are imperfect is like refusing to treat a bullet wound because you're quibbling over the caliber of the gun.

Social Lies

1US crime rate fell 50% 1990-2019 per FBI UCR, but clearance rate dropped from 21% to 12% underreporting violent crimes solved

Verified

2Teen birth rate down 73% since 1991 to 16.7 per 1,000, but ignores 20% decline in teen sexual activity and better contraception access

Verified

3Divorce rate halved since 1980 to 2.3 per 1,000, but due to fewer marriages and older age at first marriage up 10 years

Verified

4Single motherhood rose to 40% of births 2020, but stable at 70% for black women since 1960s confounding poverty causation claims

Directional

5College wage premium 84% for men bachelor's vs HS in 2022, but after $150k debt and opportunity cost ROI negative for 40% humanities grads

Single source

6Gun homicide rate 4.5 per 100k US vs 0.5 UK, but US robbery rate 81 vs 66 per 100k before gun control ignoring crime base

Verified

7Homelessness up 12% 2023 to 653k, but Point-in-Time count misses 40% sheltered and seasonal bias inflating trends

Verified

8Voter turnout 66% 2020 highest since 1900, but mail-in surge 46% of votes with 20% rejection rate in swing states uncounted

Verified

9Social media usage 70% adults daily, but average 2.5 hours hides 10% superfans at 7+ hours skewing addiction stats

Directional

10Crime-50% clear21to12%

Single source

11Teen birth-73% sex act-20%

Verified

12Divorce2.3/1k mar- fewer

Verified

13Single mom40% black70%

Verified

14Coll prem84% ROI neg40%

Directional

15Gun hom4.5 vs rob81

Single source

16Homeless+12% PIT miss40%

Verified

17Turnout66% mail46% rej20%

Verified

18SM 70% 2.5h 10%7h

Verified

Social Lies Interpretation

Crime rates have plunged, but so has the likelihood of solving a crime, while other headline-grabbing statistics—from plummeting teen births and divorce rates to soaring college premiums and voter turnout—are often less about genuine progress and more about missing context, shifting demographics, and hidden caveats that would spoil the party.