While many economists anticipated a synchronized global slowdown, the latest data paints a picture of stark divergence as the US economy chugs along at a 2.8% annual rate, Japan unexpectedly contracts, and powerhouse China cools to 4.7% growth.
Key Takeaways
- US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the advance estimate
- China's GDP growth rate was 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024
- Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- US CPI inflation rate was 2.9% year-over-year in July 2024
- Eurozone HICP inflation stood at 2.6% year-over-year in July 2024
- China's CPI rose 0.3% year-over-year in July 2024
- US unemployment rate was 4.3% in July 2024
- Eurozone unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in July 2024
- Japan's unemployment rate was 2.7% in July 2024
- US imports of goods and services were $4.16 trillion annualized in Q2 2024
- US exports of goods and services $3.21 trillion annualized Q2 2024
- China trade surplus $99.4 billion in July 2024
- US consumer spending increased 2.3% annualized Q2 2024
- US personal income rose 0.4% in June 2024
- US retail sales up 1.0% in July 2024
Global economic growth is uneven, with mixed inflation and varied manufacturing activity.
Business Indicators
1US ISM manufacturing PMI 46.8 August 2024
Verified2Eurozone manufacturing PMI 45.8 August 2024
Verified3China Caixin manufacturing PMI 49.8 August 2024
Verified4UK manufacturing PMI 46.1 August 2024
Directional5Japan manufacturing PMI 48.0 August 2024
Single source6US ISM services PMI 51.4 August 2024
Verified7Germany Ifo business climate 87.0 August 2024
Verified8France manufacturing PMI 46.0 August 2024
Verified9Italy manufacturing PMI 48.0 August 2024
Directional10Brazil industrial production up 2.0% yoy June 2024
Single source11Australia business confidence 50.4 Q2 2024 NAB
Verified12South Korea business survey index 94.6 July 2024
Verified13Canada Ivey PMI 51.0 July 2024
Verified14US capacity utilization 77.6% July 2024
Directional15China PMI manufacturing 49.4 July 2024 NBS
Single source16US NFIB small business optimism 97.9 July 2024
Verified17Eurozone services PMI 51.9 August 2024
Verified18Japan tankan large manufacturing index 13 Q2 2024
Verified19Mexico manufacturing PMI 51.4 August 2024
Directional20India manufacturing PMI 57.5 August 2024
Single source21Spain business confidence 106.4 July 2024
Verified22US industrial production up 0.2% mom July 2024
Verified23Global PMI composite 51.0 August 2024 JPMorgan
Verified24Russia business confidence 51.5 July 2024
Directional25Turkey capacity utilization 75.6% July 2024
Single sourceBusiness Indicators Interpretation
While the global factory floor is decidedly chilly, with nearly every major manufacturing PMI stuck in contraction, the world's economic engine is still sputtering along thanks to services acting as a surprisingly cheerful, if somewhat tipsy, bartender keeping the lights on.
Consumer Indicators
1US consumer spending increased 2.3% annualized Q2 2024
Verified2US personal income rose 0.4% in June 2024
Verified3US retail sales up 1.0% in July 2024
Verified4Eurozone retail sales volume down 0.1% mom June 2024
Directional5China retail sales grew 2.7% yoy July 2024
Single source6UK retail sales volumes up 1.4% mom July 2024
Verified7Japan retail sales up 2.7% yoy July 2024
Verified8Canada retail sales up 0.5% in June 2024
Verified9India passenger vehicle sales 4.12 million FY2024
Directional10Australia retail turnover up 0.5% mom June 2024
Single source11US consumer confidence index 100.4 in August 2024
Verified12South Korea private consumption up 1.9% yoy Q2 2024
Verified13Brazil retail sales up 4.0% yoy June 2024
Verified14France household consumption down 0.7% mom June 2024
Directional15Germany retail sales down 1.9% yoy June 2024
Single source16Italy consumer confidence 97.9 in July 2024
Verified17Spain retail sales up 3.3% yoy June 2024
Verified18US personal saving rate 3.4% in June 2024
Verified19Global consumer spending growth 3.2% 2024 OECD
Directional20Turkey retail sales up 4.2% yoy June 2024
Single source21Indonesia retail sales up 2.1% yoy July 2024
Verified22PCE services spending up 3.9% yoy June 2024 US
Verified23US durable goods orders up 9.3% mom July 2024
Verified24EU consumer confidence -13.7 in July 2024
Directional25Japan household spending up 0.7% yoy July 2024
Single sourceConsumer Indicators Interpretation
The American consumer, armed with modest savings and impressive confidence, is buying bigger boats while much of Europe frets over bread prices, revealing a world where spending remains robust but is far from evenly shared.
GDP
1US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the advance estimate
Verified2China's GDP growth rate was 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024
Verified3Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Verified4Japan's GDP contracted by 0.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024, revised figure
Directional5India's GDP grew by 6.7% year-over-year in Q1 FY2024-25
Single source6UK GDP rose by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Verified7Canada's GDP increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June 2024
Verified8Brazil's GDP grew by 2.9% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Verified9Australia's GDP expanded by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Directional10South Korea's GDP grew by 2.3% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Single source11Mexico's GDP increased by 2.2% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Verified12Russia's GDP grew by 4.3% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Verified13France's GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Verified14Germany's GDP contracted by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Directional15Italy's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Single source16Spain's GDP expanded by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Verified17Turkey's GDP grew by 3.0% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
Verified18Indonesia's GDP increased by 5.1% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Verified19Saudi Arabia's GDP grew by 1.4% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Directional20US GDP per capita was $85,373 in 2023
Single source21Global GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 3.2% by IMF
Verified22EU GDP growth projected at 0.8% for 2024
Verified23World GDP reached $105.4 trillion in 2023 PPP terms
Verified24Singapore's GDP grew by 3.5% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Directional25Argentina's GDP contracted by 1.7% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Single source26Nigeria's GDP grew by 2.9% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Verified27US PCE GDP implicit price deflator rose 2.0% in Q2 2024
Verified28China's GDP deflator was 0.3% in Q2 2024
Verified29UK GDP chain volume measure increased 0.7% in Q2 2024 from Q1
Directional30Euro area GDP up 0.3% in Q2 2024 sa
Single sourceGDP Interpretation
While the world economy is collectively trying to keep its head above water, a careful observer might note it's less a synchronized swim and more a chaotic, nation-specific doggy paddle, with Germany taking on a bit of water, India doing butterfly laps, and Japan momentarily forgetting how to float.
Inflation
1US CPI inflation rate was 2.9% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified2Eurozone HICP inflation stood at 2.6% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified3China's CPI rose 0.3% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified4UK's CPI inflation was 2.2% year-over-year in July 2024
Directional5Japan's CPI inflation rate was 2.8% year-over-year in July 2024
Single source6India's retail inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified7Canada's CPI inflation was 2.0% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified8Brazil's IPCA inflation rate was 4.50% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified9Australia's CPI rose 3.6% year-over-year in Q2 2024
Directional10South Korea's CPI inflation was 2.4% year-over-year in July 2024
Single source11Mexico's INPC inflation was 5.57% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified12Russia's CPI inflation reached 9.2% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified13France's CPI inflation was 2.3% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified14Germany's HICP inflation was 2.6% year-over-year in July 2024
Directional15Italy's CPI inflation stood at 1.3% year-over-year in July 2024
Single source16Spain's CPI inflation was 2.8% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified17Turkey's annual CPI inflation was 61.8% in July 2024
Verified18Indonesia's CPI inflation was 2.13% year-over-year in July 2024
Verified19US core CPI increased 3.2% year-over-year in July 2024
Directional20Global inflation forecast for 2024 is 5.9% by IMF
Single source21PCE price index rose 2.5% year-over-year in June 2024 US
Verified22Producer Price Index for final demand up 2.2% yoy July 2024 US
Verified23Saudi Arabia CPI inflation was 1.6% yoy in June 2024
Verified24Argentina CPI inflation 4.0% month-over-month July 2024
Directional25Nigeria headline inflation 33.40% yoy June 2024
Single source26Singapore core inflation 2.5% yoy July 2024
VerifiedInflation Interpretation
This smorgasbord of inflation figures shows that while much of the world is stuck politely bickering over the thermostat, a few economies are sweating through an inferno, and China is apparently wondering if the heater is even on.
Labor Market
1US unemployment rate was 4.3% in July 2024
Verified2Eurozone unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in July 2024
Verified3Japan's unemployment rate was 2.7% in July 2024
Verified4UK's unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in three months to June 2024
Directional5Canada's unemployment rate increased to 6.4% in July 2024
Single source6Australia's unemployment rate was 4.2% in July 2024
Verified7South Korea's unemployment rate was 2.7% in July 2024
Verified8Mexico's unemployment rate was 2.6% in July 2024
Verified9Brazil's unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in Q2 2024
Directional10India's urban unemployment rate was 9.2% in Q1 2024-25
Single source11China's urban unemployment rate was 5.0% in July 2024
Verified12France's unemployment rate was 7.4% in Q2 2024
Verified13Germany's unemployment rate was 6.4% in July 2024
Verified14Italy's unemployment rate was 6.9% in June 2024
Directional15Spain's unemployment rate was 11.3% in Q2 2024
Single source16US nonfarm payrolls added 114,000 jobs in July 2024
Verified17Euro area employment up 0.2% qoq in Q1 2024
Verified18Japan job-to-applicant ratio 1.23 in July 2024
Verified19UK employment rate 74.5% for 16-64 in June 2024
Directional20Canada employment +27,000 in July 2024
Single source21US labor force participation rate 62.7% in July 2024
Verified22Global unemployment rate 5.0% in 2024 forecast ILO
Verified23Turkey unemployment rate 8.4% in June 2024
Verified24Indonesia unemployment rate 4.91% in August 2024 survey
Directional25US average hourly earnings up 3.6% yoy July 2024
Single source26EU employment rate 75.4% in 2023
Verified27US JOLTS job openings 7.66 million in June 2024
Verified28China surveyed unemployment youth 16.0% July 2024
VerifiedLabor Market Interpretation
The global job market is putting on a performance worthy of mixed reviews, with economies from Japan to Spain proving that while unemployment may be a universal concept, the drama it inspires is decidedly local.
Trade
1US imports of goods and services were $4.16 trillion annualized in Q2 2024
Verified2US exports of goods and services $3.21 trillion annualized Q2 2024
Verified3China trade surplus $99.4 billion in July 2024
Verified4EU exports to non-EU countries €238.4 billion in June 2024
Directional5Germany trade surplus €3.0 billion in June 2024
Single source6UK goods trade deficit £15.4 billion in June 2024
Verified7Japan trade deficit ¥221.5 billion in July 2024
Verified8Canada merchandise trade deficit C$1.2 billion July 2024
Verified9Mexico trade surplus $9.37 billion in July 2024
Directional10India trade deficit $21.8 billion in July 2024
Single source11South Korea exports $57.5 billion in July 2024
Verified12Brazil trade surplus $30.1 billion Jan-Jul 2024
Verified13Australia trade surplus A$7.0 billion June 2024
Verified14US trade deficit with China $28.6 billion in June 2024
Directional15World trade volume growth 3.4% in 2024 forecast WTO
Single source16Russia trade surplus $13.9 billion May 2024
Verified17France trade deficit €6.5 billion June 2024
Verified18Italy trade surplus €5.5 billion June 2024
Verified19Spain trade deficit €3.3 billion June 2024
Directional20Turkey exports $22.3 billion July 2024
Single source21Indonesia trade surplus $2.51 billion July 2024
Verified22Saudi Arabia non-oil exports SAR 14.5 billion June 2024
Verified23Global merchandise trade $25 trillion in 2023 WTO
Verified24US-China Phase One trade agreement compliance 57% in 2023
Directional25EU-US goods trade €1.6 trillion in 2023
Single source26Vietnam trade surplus $18.0 billion Jan-Jul 2024
Verified27Singapore total trade $123 billion July 2024
Verified28Nigeria trade balance -$1.2 billion Q2 2024
VerifiedTrade Interpretation
The world is playing a high-stakes game of musical chairs, and the music—a relentless $25 trillion symphony of goods—is pausing just long enough for everyone to notice that while the US is running a colossal tab, China is collecting the chips, and Germany is quietly winning its own private game.
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