While many economists anticipated a synchronized global slowdown, the latest data paints a picture of stark divergence as the US economy chugs along at a 2.8% annual rate, Japan unexpectedly contracts, and powerhouse China cools to 4.7% growth.
Key Takeaways
- US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the advance estimate
- China's GDP growth rate was 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024
- Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- US CPI inflation rate was 2.9% year-over-year in July 2024
- Eurozone HICP inflation stood at 2.6% year-over-year in July 2024
- China's CPI rose 0.3% year-over-year in July 2024
- US unemployment rate was 4.3% in July 2024
- Eurozone unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in July 2024
- Japan's unemployment rate was 2.7% in July 2024
- US imports of goods and services were $4.16 trillion annualized in Q2 2024
- US exports of goods and services $3.21 trillion annualized Q2 2024
- China trade surplus $99.4 billion in July 2024
- US consumer spending increased 2.3% annualized Q2 2024
- US personal income rose 0.4% in June 2024
- US retail sales up 1.0% in July 2024
Global economic growth is uneven, with mixed inflation and varied manufacturing activity.
Business Indicators
- US ISM manufacturing PMI 46.8 August 2024
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI 45.8 August 2024
- China Caixin manufacturing PMI 49.8 August 2024
- UK manufacturing PMI 46.1 August 2024
- Japan manufacturing PMI 48.0 August 2024
- US ISM services PMI 51.4 August 2024
- Germany Ifo business climate 87.0 August 2024
- France manufacturing PMI 46.0 August 2024
- Italy manufacturing PMI 48.0 August 2024
- Brazil industrial production up 2.0% yoy June 2024
- Australia business confidence 50.4 Q2 2024 NAB
- South Korea business survey index 94.6 July 2024
- Canada Ivey PMI 51.0 July 2024
- US capacity utilization 77.6% July 2024
- China PMI manufacturing 49.4 July 2024 NBS
- US NFIB small business optimism 97.9 July 2024
- Eurozone services PMI 51.9 August 2024
- Japan tankan large manufacturing index 13 Q2 2024
- Mexico manufacturing PMI 51.4 August 2024
- India manufacturing PMI 57.5 August 2024
- Spain business confidence 106.4 July 2024
- US industrial production up 0.2% mom July 2024
- Global PMI composite 51.0 August 2024 JPMorgan
- Russia business confidence 51.5 July 2024
- Turkey capacity utilization 75.6% July 2024
Business Indicators Interpretation
While the global factory floor is decidedly chilly, with nearly every major manufacturing PMI stuck in contraction, the world's economic engine is still sputtering along thanks to services acting as a surprisingly cheerful, if somewhat tipsy, bartender keeping the lights on.
Consumer Indicators
- US consumer spending increased 2.3% annualized Q2 2024
- US personal income rose 0.4% in June 2024
- US retail sales up 1.0% in July 2024
- Eurozone retail sales volume down 0.1% mom June 2024
- China retail sales grew 2.7% yoy July 2024
- UK retail sales volumes up 1.4% mom July 2024
- Japan retail sales up 2.7% yoy July 2024
- Canada retail sales up 0.5% in June 2024
- India passenger vehicle sales 4.12 million FY2024
- Australia retail turnover up 0.5% mom June 2024
- US consumer confidence index 100.4 in August 2024
- South Korea private consumption up 1.9% yoy Q2 2024
- Brazil retail sales up 4.0% yoy June 2024
- France household consumption down 0.7% mom June 2024
- Germany retail sales down 1.9% yoy June 2024
- Italy consumer confidence 97.9 in July 2024
- Spain retail sales up 3.3% yoy June 2024
- US personal saving rate 3.4% in June 2024
- Global consumer spending growth 3.2% 2024 OECD
- Turkey retail sales up 4.2% yoy June 2024
- Indonesia retail sales up 2.1% yoy July 2024
- PCE services spending up 3.9% yoy June 2024 US
- US durable goods orders up 9.3% mom July 2024
- EU consumer confidence -13.7 in July 2024
- Japan household spending up 0.7% yoy July 2024
Consumer Indicators Interpretation
The American consumer, armed with modest savings and impressive confidence, is buying bigger boats while much of Europe frets over bread prices, revealing a world where spending remains robust but is far from evenly shared.
GDP
- US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the advance estimate
- China's GDP growth rate was 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024
- Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- Japan's GDP contracted by 0.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024, revised figure
- India's GDP grew by 6.7% year-over-year in Q1 FY2024-25
- UK GDP rose by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- Canada's GDP increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June 2024
- Brazil's GDP grew by 2.9% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- Australia's GDP expanded by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- South Korea's GDP grew by 2.3% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- Mexico's GDP increased by 2.2% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- Russia's GDP grew by 4.3% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- France's GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- Germany's GDP contracted by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- Italy's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- Spain's GDP expanded by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- Turkey's GDP grew by 3.0% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024
- Indonesia's GDP increased by 5.1% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- Saudi Arabia's GDP grew by 1.4% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- US GDP per capita was $85,373 in 2023
- Global GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 3.2% by IMF
- EU GDP growth projected at 0.8% for 2024
- World GDP reached $105.4 trillion in 2023 PPP terms
- Singapore's GDP grew by 3.5% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- Argentina's GDP contracted by 1.7% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- Nigeria's GDP grew by 2.9% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- US PCE GDP implicit price deflator rose 2.0% in Q2 2024
- China's GDP deflator was 0.3% in Q2 2024
- UK GDP chain volume measure increased 0.7% in Q2 2024 from Q1
- Euro area GDP up 0.3% in Q2 2024 sa
GDP Interpretation
While the world economy is collectively trying to keep its head above water, a careful observer might note it's less a synchronized swim and more a chaotic, nation-specific doggy paddle, with Germany taking on a bit of water, India doing butterfly laps, and Japan momentarily forgetting how to float.
Inflation
- US CPI inflation rate was 2.9% year-over-year in July 2024
- Eurozone HICP inflation stood at 2.6% year-over-year in July 2024
- China's CPI rose 0.3% year-over-year in July 2024
- UK's CPI inflation was 2.2% year-over-year in July 2024
- Japan's CPI inflation rate was 2.8% year-over-year in July 2024
- India's retail inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year in July 2024
- Canada's CPI inflation was 2.0% year-over-year in July 2024
- Brazil's IPCA inflation rate was 4.50% year-over-year in July 2024
- Australia's CPI rose 3.6% year-over-year in Q2 2024
- South Korea's CPI inflation was 2.4% year-over-year in July 2024
- Mexico's INPC inflation was 5.57% year-over-year in July 2024
- Russia's CPI inflation reached 9.2% year-over-year in July 2024
- France's CPI inflation was 2.3% year-over-year in July 2024
- Germany's HICP inflation was 2.6% year-over-year in July 2024
- Italy's CPI inflation stood at 1.3% year-over-year in July 2024
- Spain's CPI inflation was 2.8% year-over-year in July 2024
- Turkey's annual CPI inflation was 61.8% in July 2024
- Indonesia's CPI inflation was 2.13% year-over-year in July 2024
- US core CPI increased 3.2% year-over-year in July 2024
- Global inflation forecast for 2024 is 5.9% by IMF
- PCE price index rose 2.5% year-over-year in June 2024 US
- Producer Price Index for final demand up 2.2% yoy July 2024 US
- Saudi Arabia CPI inflation was 1.6% yoy in June 2024
- Argentina CPI inflation 4.0% month-over-month July 2024
- Nigeria headline inflation 33.40% yoy June 2024
- Singapore core inflation 2.5% yoy July 2024
Inflation Interpretation
This smorgasbord of inflation figures shows that while much of the world is stuck politely bickering over the thermostat, a few economies are sweating through an inferno, and China is apparently wondering if the heater is even on.
Labor Market
- US unemployment rate was 4.3% in July 2024
- Eurozone unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in July 2024
- Japan's unemployment rate was 2.7% in July 2024
- UK's unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in three months to June 2024
- Canada's unemployment rate increased to 6.4% in July 2024
- Australia's unemployment rate was 4.2% in July 2024
- South Korea's unemployment rate was 2.7% in July 2024
- Mexico's unemployment rate was 2.6% in July 2024
- Brazil's unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in Q2 2024
- India's urban unemployment rate was 9.2% in Q1 2024-25
- China's urban unemployment rate was 5.0% in July 2024
- France's unemployment rate was 7.4% in Q2 2024
- Germany's unemployment rate was 6.4% in July 2024
- Italy's unemployment rate was 6.9% in June 2024
- Spain's unemployment rate was 11.3% in Q2 2024
- US nonfarm payrolls added 114,000 jobs in July 2024
- Euro area employment up 0.2% qoq in Q1 2024
- Japan job-to-applicant ratio 1.23 in July 2024
- UK employment rate 74.5% for 16-64 in June 2024
- Canada employment +27,000 in July 2024
- US labor force participation rate 62.7% in July 2024
- Global unemployment rate 5.0% in 2024 forecast ILO
- Turkey unemployment rate 8.4% in June 2024
- Indonesia unemployment rate 4.91% in August 2024 survey
- US average hourly earnings up 3.6% yoy July 2024
- EU employment rate 75.4% in 2023
- US JOLTS job openings 7.66 million in June 2024
- China surveyed unemployment youth 16.0% July 2024
Labor Market Interpretation
The global job market is putting on a performance worthy of mixed reviews, with economies from Japan to Spain proving that while unemployment may be a universal concept, the drama it inspires is decidedly local.
Trade
- US imports of goods and services were $4.16 trillion annualized in Q2 2024
- US exports of goods and services $3.21 trillion annualized Q2 2024
- China trade surplus $99.4 billion in July 2024
- EU exports to non-EU countries €238.4 billion in June 2024
- Germany trade surplus €3.0 billion in June 2024
- UK goods trade deficit £15.4 billion in June 2024
- Japan trade deficit ¥221.5 billion in July 2024
- Canada merchandise trade deficit C$1.2 billion July 2024
- Mexico trade surplus $9.37 billion in July 2024
- India trade deficit $21.8 billion in July 2024
- South Korea exports $57.5 billion in July 2024
- Brazil trade surplus $30.1 billion Jan-Jul 2024
- Australia trade surplus A$7.0 billion June 2024
- US trade deficit with China $28.6 billion in June 2024
- World trade volume growth 3.4% in 2024 forecast WTO
- Russia trade surplus $13.9 billion May 2024
- France trade deficit €6.5 billion June 2024
- Italy trade surplus €5.5 billion June 2024
- Spain trade deficit €3.3 billion June 2024
- Turkey exports $22.3 billion July 2024
- Indonesia trade surplus $2.51 billion July 2024
- Saudi Arabia non-oil exports SAR 14.5 billion June 2024
- Global merchandise trade $25 trillion in 2023 WTO
- US-China Phase One trade agreement compliance 57% in 2023
- EU-US goods trade €1.6 trillion in 2023
- Vietnam trade surplus $18.0 billion Jan-Jul 2024
- Singapore total trade $123 billion July 2024
- Nigeria trade balance -$1.2 billion Q2 2024
Trade Interpretation
The world is playing a high-stakes game of musical chairs, and the music—a relentless $25 trillion symphony of goods—is pausing just long enough for everyone to notice that while the US is running a colossal tab, China is collecting the chips, and Germany is quietly winning its own private game.
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