Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 Index has historically returned an average of 10.26% annually from 1928 to 2023, including dividends reinvested.
- From 1957 to 2023, the S&P 500's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 10.67% with dividends.
- Over the past 20 years ending 2023, the S&P 500 annualized return was 9.7%, outperforming inflation by 6.8%.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.25% from 1962 to 2023.
- Investment-grade corporate bonds returned 5.2% annually from 1973-2023.
- High-yield junk bonds averaged 8.1% annual returns from 1983-2023.
- Global REIT index returned 9.2% annually from 2000-2023.
- U.S. commercial real estate cap rates average 6.5% for offices in 2023.
- Gold price increased 7.8% annually from 1971-2023 post-gold standard.
- 60/40 portfolio (stocks/bonds) returned 8.5% annually 1926-2023.
- Diversification reduced portfolio volatility by 30% in 2008 crash.
- Rebalancing annually adds 0.5-1% to returns long-term.
- 68% of individual investors underperform the market annually.
- Average investor return is 5.5% vs. S&P 10.7% over 30 years.
- Loss aversion causes investors to sell winners too early 20% more often.
Long-term stock market investing has historically rewarded patient investors despite periods of volatility.
Alternatives
- Global REIT index returned 9.2% annually from 2000-2023.
- U.S. commercial real estate cap rates average 6.5% for offices in 2023.
- Gold price increased 7.8% annually from 1971-2023 post-gold standard.
- Bitcoin annualized return since 2010 is over 200%, but with 80% volatility.
- Hedge funds averaged 7.1% net returns from 1990-2023.
- Private equity buyouts returned 15.2% annually 1986-2022.
- Commodities (GSCI) returned 5.4% annually 1970-2023.
- U.S. farmland values rose 5.1% annually 1992-2023.
- Timberland investments returned 8.9% annually long-term.
- Art market (Mei Moses) returned 6.5% annually 1986-2023.
- Venture capital median IRR is 2.4x multiples since inception.
- Infrastructure funds returned 10.5% annually 2000-2023.
- Silver price volatility is 25% annualized vs. gold's 15%.
- REIT dividend yields average 4.2% for equity REITs.
- Oil futures contango costs average 5% annually.
- Collectibles like wine returned 8.2% annually via Liv-ex index.
- Cryptocurrency market cap reached $2.5 trillion peak in 2021.
- Peer-to-peer lending defaults average 4-6% on platforms.
- Carbon credits traded $851 billion in 2022.
- Shipping container investments yield 8-10% leases.
- Whiskey cask investments returned 12% annually historically.
- Royalty trusts in energy yield 7-9% dividends.
Alternatives Interpretation
Behavioral Finance
- 68% of individual investors underperform the market annually.
- Average investor return is 5.5% vs. S&P 10.7% over 30 years.
- Loss aversion causes investors to sell winners too early 20% more often.
- Herding behavior amplified 1987 crash by 30%.
- Overconfidence leads to 1.5% annual underperformance.
- 40% of investors chase past performance.
- Disposition effect: hold losers 2x longer than winners.
- Recency bias causes 15% allocation shift post-bull markets.
- Anchoring to purchase price affects 25% of sell decisions.
- Confirmation bias in 78% of retail trader news consumption.
- Endowment effect values owned stocks 20-30% higher.
- Mental accounting separates gains/losses into buckets 60% of time.
- Status quo bias retains underperforming funds 45% longer.
- Hindsight bias post-event: 80% claim they predicted it.
- Availability bias favors recent events, skewing risk perception by 25%.
- Social proof: 55% mimic top holdings of famous investors.
- Regret aversion delays rebalancing by 3 months on average.
- Framing effect: gains framed as % beat $ amounts 70% preference.
- Hyperbolic discounting favors now over future at 2:1 ratio.
- Illusion of control in active trading boosts volume 50%.
- Gambler's fallacy after streaks affects 35% of trades.
- Self-attribution bias claims skill after wins 65% of time.
- House money effect risks more after gains 40%.
- Diversification insufficiency: naive 1/N rule used by 80% retail.
Behavioral Finance Interpretation
Equities
- The S&P 500 Index has historically returned an average of 10.26% annually from 1928 to 2023, including dividends reinvested.
- From 1957 to 2023, the S&P 500's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 10.67% with dividends.
- Over the past 20 years ending 2023, the S&P 500 annualized return was 9.7%, outperforming inflation by 6.8%.
- The NASDAQ Composite Index averaged 11.8% annual returns from 1971 to 2023.
- Dividend yield on the S&P 500 averaged 4.1% during the 1970s decade.
- In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a maximum drawdown of 25.4% from its peak.
- Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) returned 11.9% annually from 1979 to 2023.
- Value stocks outperformed growth stocks by 4.5% annually from 1927 to 2023.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average has compounded at 7.5% annually since 1896.
- Tech sector in S&P 500 grew from 8% to 29% of index weight from 2000 to 2023.
- S&P 500 forward P/E ratio averaged 16.8x from 1871 to 2023.
- Earnings growth for S&P 500 companies averaged 6.7% annually over the last 10 years to 2023.
- 70% of S&P 500 daily moves are less than 1% since 1950.
- Beta of S&P 500 to itself is 1.0, with average stock beta at 1.1.
- Sharpe ratio for S&P 500 buy-and-hold from 1926-2023 is 0.42.
- Number of S&P 500 companies increased from 500 in 1957 to over 500 today with reconstitutions.
- Average annual volatility (standard deviation) of S&P 500 returns is 15.2% from 1928-2023.
- S&P 500 has positive returns in 73% of calendar years since 1928.
- Best single-year S&P 500 return was 53.99% in 1933.
- Worst single-year S&P 500 return was -43.84% in 1931.
- S&P 500 median annual return from 1928-2023 is 11.9%.
- Turnover rate in S&P 500 is about 4-5% annually due to reconstitutions.
- Magnificent 7 stocks accounted for 28% of S&P 500 market cap in 2023.
- Average market cap of S&P 500 constituents is $85 billion as of 2023.
- S&P 500 price-to-book ratio averaged 2.9x from 1976-2023.
- Institutional ownership in S&P 500 stocks averages 80%.
- Average dividend payout ratio for S&P 500 is 38% over the last decade.
- S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats have outperformed the broader index by 2% annually since 2005.
- Number of IPOs on NYSE/Nasdaq averaged 150 per year from 2010-2019.
- Average first-day IPO pop was 18% in 2021.
Equities Interpretation
Fixed Income
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.25% from 1962 to 2023.
- Investment-grade corporate bonds returned 5.2% annually from 1973-2023.
- High-yield junk bonds averaged 8.1% annual returns from 1983-2023.
- Duration of Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is 6.2 years as of 2023.
- Yield to maturity on AAA municipals averaged 3.5% over 20 years to 2023.
- In 2022, long-term Treasuries lost 31% amid rising rates.
- Credit spreads for BBB corporates averaged 150 bps over Treasuries since 2000.
- TIPS inflation-protected securities returned 4.1% annually since 1997.
- Average coupon on outstanding U.S. Treasuries is 2.5% as of 2023.
- Emerging market sovereign debt yields averaged 6.8% from 2000-2023.
- Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prepayment rate averages 10% annually.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rates peaked at 18.63% in 1981.
- Bond market size exceeded $130 trillion globally in 2023.
- U.S. corporate bond issuance hit $2 trillion in 2021.
- Default rate on high-yield bonds averaged 3.1% annually since 1981.
- Sharpe ratio for U.S. Aggregate Bonds 1976-2023 is 0.52.
- 62% of bond returns are from yield, 38% from price changes historically.
- Callable bond premium averages 20-50 bps over non-callable.
- Inflation erodes bond purchasing power by 2.5% annually on average.
- Zero-coupon Treasury STRIPS yield curve slope is 1.2% (10y-2y) in 2023.
- Agency debt spreads over Treasuries average 10 bps.
- U.S. municipal bond market size is $4 trillion outstanding.
- Tax-equivalent yield for munis at 40% bracket and 3% yield is 5%.
- Leveraged loans returned 5.9% annually since 1992.
- S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index yield averages 5.8%.
Fixed Income Interpretation
Global Markets
- China A-shares P/E averaged 15x vs. global 18x 2010-2023.
- MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 7.9% annually 1988-2023.
- Euro Stoxx 50 averaged 7.2% returns 1990-2023.
- Nikkei 225 CAGR 5.1% since 1989 bubble peak to 2023.
- Brazil Bovespa returned 10.4% annualized in USD 1994-2023.
- India Nifty 50 grew 12.1% annually 2000-2023.
- Currency risk: USD vs. EUR volatility 10% annually.
- ADRs represent 20% of U.S. trading volume for foreign stocks.
- Frontier markets volatility 25% vs. EM 18%.
- Saudi Arabia Tadawul returned 8.5% since IPO reforms.
- Global stock market cap $110 trillion in 2023, U.S. 60%.
- Carry trade yen unwind caused 15% EM currency drop 2022.
- MSCI ACWI ex-US returned 6.8% vs. US 10.2% 2000-2023.
- Dividend yield in Europe averages 3.5% vs. US 1.6%.
- Russia RTS index down 90% from peak due to sanctions.
- Taiwan Weighted Index tech-heavy 70% weight.
- Africa equity markets grew 8% annually 2010-2023.
- GDR trading volume $50 billion annually.
- Sovereign wealth funds AUM $11 trillion in 2023.
- Foreign ownership in Japan stocks 30%.
- LatAm bonds yield 7.5% average.
- ASEAN markets correlation to US 0.6.
Global Markets Interpretation
Portfolio Management
- 60/40 portfolio (stocks/bonds) returned 8.5% annually 1926-2023.
- Diversification reduced portfolio volatility by 30% in 2008 crash.
- Rebalancing annually adds 0.5-1% to returns long-term.
- Target-date funds assets under management hit $3.5 trillion in 2023.
- Monte Carlo simulations show 95% success rate for 4% withdrawal over 30 years.
- Dollar-cost averaging outperforms lump sum in 68% of 10-year periods.
- ETF assets grew from $1 trillion in 2010 to $10 trillion in 2023.
- Smart beta strategies capture 80% of factor premia.
- ESG funds inflows reached $350 billion in 2021.
- Robo-advisors manage $1 trillion AUM as of 2023.
- Factor timing success rate is below 50% for value/momentum.
- Maximum drawdown in balanced portfolios averages 20-25% in crashes.
- Tax-loss harvesting saves 1% annually in taxable accounts.
- Glide path in target-date funds shifts from 90/10 to 50/50 equities.
- Overlay strategies reduce transaction costs by 50%.
- Core-satellite allocation: 70% passive, 30% active typically.
- Risk parity portfolios equalize volatility contributions.
- All-weather portfolio (Bridgewater) targets 10% volatility.
- Tactical asset allocation beats strategic in 55% of periods.
- Withdrawal rate sustainability: 3.5% for 40 years at 90% confidence.
- 85% of active funds underperform benchmarks over 10 years.
- Home bias: U.S. investors allocate 70% to domestic equities.
Portfolio Management Interpretation
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