The global heat pump market is projected to grow at a 7.5 percent CAGR and reach 36.6 billion dollars. Asia Pacific is forecast to account for 49 percent of that total. Cumulative installations in Japan have already surpassed 5 million units.
Key Takeaways
- 7.5% CAGR (2024–2030) projected for the global heat pump market, reaching $36.6B by 2030
- 49% of the global heat pump market is forecast to come from Asia-Pacific by 2030
- 32% share: the residential segment represented 32% of the heat pump market in 2023
- In Japan, heat pump installations surpassed 5 million by 2020 for residential and commercial combined (cumulative installs)
- Residential heat pump units account for about 2/3 of global heat pump installations by count (residential dominates deployment)
- Demand volatility: the global compressor supply chain tightened in 2021–2022, with lead times in HVAC compressor procurement reported rising by 20%–60% by major buyers
- 3.8 million homes in the UK had heat pumps installed by end of 2023
- Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (EU SFDR) requires reporting impacts for certain heating decarbonization investments, affecting heat pump market finance decisions (qualifying investments)
- UK Boiler Upgrade Scheme reduces effective upfront cost by up to £7,500 per installation (grant maximum)
- Demand response value: capacity payments and time-of-use savings can represent 5%–15% of annual heating cost for customers using smart thermostats in programs (reported ranges)
- In the US, NREL reports that heat pump space heating can be cost-competitive with gas depending on electricity-to-gas price ratio; break-even occurs around 2.5:1 electricity vs gas cost per delivered energy unit (model-based)
- SCOP targets: EU Ecodesign regulations set minimum seasonal space heating efficiency requirements (SCOP) for heat pumps
- ErP labeling: EU heat pumps are required to be rated using seasonal efficiency (e.g., ErP seasonal space heating efficiency) enabling standardized comparison
- NREL measured heat pump water heater standby losses below 5 W in many ENERGY STAR-certified models (reported range depends on model)
- 35% of global building energy consumption is attributed to heating and cooling, motivating heat pump market demand
Heat pumps are rapidly scaling worldwide, with Asia leading growth and policies driving costs and efficiency improvements.
Related reading
01 · Category
Market Size8 stats
01
7.5% CAGR (2024–2030) projected for the global heat pump market, reaching $36.6B by 2030
02
49% of the global heat pump market is forecast to come from Asia-Pacific by 2030
03
32% share: the residential segment represented 32% of the heat pump market in 2023
04
EUR 42 billion: cumulative EU heat pump investment supported by the REPowerEU plan through 2030
05
1.3 million units: global air-to-air heat pump shipments in 2023
06
24.6 million units of heat pumps were sold globally in 2023 (IEA).
07
By 2030, heat pumps are projected to supply 25% of global heating demand in the Net Zero Scenario (IEA).
08
17% of all US households had a heat pump in 2022 (LBNL, based on RECS microdata).
Interpretation
Market Size Interpretation
The market size outlook for heat pumps is accelerating, with a projected 7.5% CAGR to $36.6B by 2030 and Asia Pacific expected to supply 49% of that growth, while sales already hit 24.6 million units in 2023 and EU investment under REPowerEU totals EUR 42 billion through 2030.
02 · Category
Industry Trends7 stats
01
In Japan, heat pump installations surpassed 5 million by 2020 for residential and commercial combined (cumulative installs)
02
Residential heat pump units account for about 2/3 of global heat pump installations by count (residential dominates deployment)
03
Demand volatility: the global compressor supply chain tightened in 2021–2022, with lead times in HVAC compressor procurement reported rising by 20%–60% by major buyers
04
Labor: US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a 6% employment growth for HVAC installers between 2022 and 2032
05
Residential retrofits: 3.4 million households were targeted for heat pump and insulation upgrades under UK government programs announced for 2022–2025 (policy scale)
06
EU F-gas Regulation sets a 70% reduction in HFC supply vs 2014 levels by 2024 for most HFCs (quota steps under Regulation (EU) No 517/2014).
07
In 2021, the global average refrigerant leakage rate in refrigeration and AC applications was estimated at 10% per year in a peer-reviewed synthesis paper, highlighting the relevance of refrigerant management in heat pump reliability and lifecycle impact.
Interpretation
Industry Trends Interpretation
Across major markets, heat pump deployment is accelerating and becoming more labor intensive, from Japan surpassing 5 million cumulative residential and commercial installations by 2020 to residential units making up about two thirds of global installs, while policy and supply constraints are shaping the pace through a 70% cut in HFC supply by 2024 under the EU’s F gas rules and tighter compressor lead times in 2021 to 2022.
03 · Category
Policy & Incentives2 stats
01
3.8 million homes in the UK had heat pumps installed by end of 2023
02
Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (EU SFDR) requires reporting impacts for certain heating decarbonization investments, affecting heat pump market finance decisions (qualifying investments)
Interpretation
Policy & Incentives Interpretation
With 3.8 million UK homes having heat pumps installed by the end of 2023, and EU rules like the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) pushing reporting on heating decarbonization investment impacts, policy and incentives are clearly accelerating adoption while also tightening accountability.
04 · Category
Cost Analysis5 stats
01
UK Boiler Upgrade Scheme reduces effective upfront cost by up to £7,500 per installation (grant maximum)
02
Demand response value: capacity payments and time-of-use savings can represent 5%–15% of annual heating cost for customers using smart thermostats in programs (reported ranges)
03
In the US, NREL reports that heat pump space heating can be cost-competitive with gas depending on electricity-to-gas price ratio; break-even occurs around 2.5:1 electricity vs gas cost per delivered energy unit (model-based)
04
A 2021 peer-reviewed techno-economic assessment of heat pump retrofits in Europe found payback periods commonly range from ~5 to 12 years depending on electricity price, building heat demand, and subsidy level.
05
LBNL reported that heat pump water heaters can reduce household operating costs by roughly 30%–50% relative to conventional electric resistance water heating, depending on local electricity rates (LBNL analysis of ENERGY STAR HPWHs).
Interpretation
Cost Analysis Interpretation
From a cost analysis perspective, incentives, smarter tariffs, and efficiency gains are combining to make heat pumps substantially cheaper to run, with the UK Boiler Upgrade Scheme cutting upfront costs by up to £7,500 per installation, potential customer savings from demand response reaching 5%–15% of annual heating bills, and payback periods often falling in the roughly 5 to 12 year range in European retrofit studies.
More related reading
05 · Category
Performance & Efficiency3 stats
01
SCOP targets: EU Ecodesign regulations set minimum seasonal space heating efficiency requirements (SCOP) for heat pumps
02
ErP labeling: EU heat pumps are required to be rated using seasonal efficiency (e.g., ErP seasonal space heating efficiency) enabling standardized comparison
03
NREL measured heat pump water heater standby losses below 5 W in many ENERGY STAR-certified models (reported range depends on model)
Interpretation
Performance & Efficiency Interpretation
For Performance and Efficiency, EU rules are driving heat pumps toward higher seasonal heating performance, with ErP labeling measuring seasonal efficiency and NREL reporting many ENERGY STAR certified water heater models with standby losses under 5 W.
06 · Category
Supply Chain & Adoption7 stats
01
35% of global building energy consumption is attributed to heating and cooling, motivating heat pump market demand
02
2.4% of EU heating is currently met by heat pumps (share of space heating demand; varies by definition/year)
03
85% of heat pump failures are related to installation and maintenance issues rather than manufacturer defects in industry troubleshooting analyses
04
Training and certification: 1.1 million people were HVAC-related workforce employed in the US in 2022 (HVAC installers and mechanics category)
05
Job posting trend: the number of HVAC technician job postings increased by 20% year-over-year in 2023 in the US (recruiting analytics metric)
06
EU F-gas regulation limits HFC use; by 2030 most HFCs face tighter quotas, increasing incentives to use low-GWP refrigerants in heat pumps
07
50% renewable electricity share threshold: many scenarios assume 50%+ clean electricity to maximize lifecycle CO2 benefits of heat pumps
Interpretation
Supply Chain & Adoption Interpretation
With heating and cooling driving 35% of global building energy use and EU heat pumps meeting only 2.4% of heating today, adoption remains low but fast-moving, while supply chain readiness is crucial because 85% of heat pump failures stem from installation and maintenance and 1.1 million HVAC workers plus a 20% rise in US job postings signal growing installer demand even as EU F-gas rules tighten HFC use by 2030.
07 · Category
User Adoption1 stats
01
In the US, heat pump unitary sales increased from 2022 to 2023 by 18.1% (AHRI market statistics).
Interpretation
User Adoption Interpretation
In the US, unitary heat pump sales jumped 18.1% from 2022 to 2023, signaling strong momentum in user adoption of this technology.
08 · Category
Performance Metrics3 stats
01
A 2022 meta-analysis of heat pump field and lab performance found seasonal coefficients of performance (SCOP) vary widely by climate and load, with an average reported SCOP around 3.0 for modern air-source heat pumps in typical European conditions.
02
A 2018 peer-reviewed review reported that ground-source heat pump systems typically deliver seasonal performance factors (SPF) in the range of ~3.5 to ~5.0 depending on system design and geology.
03
ISO 13256-1 defines test and rating conditions for heat pumps and includes performance measurement methodology for seasonal and standardized testing, establishing comparability of reported efficiency metrics.
Interpretation
Performance Metrics Interpretation
For the Performance Metrics of HVAC heat pumps, the evidence shows that key efficiency measures like SCOP and SPF vary widely with climate and system type, with ground-source units typically delivering SPF in the mid-range reported in the 2018 review, while ISO 13256-1 emphasizes standardized test conditions to make these seasonal performance comparisons meaningful.
report visual · Key figures
Heat pump market momentum and adoption signals
Projected market growth and rising deployment—especially via regional forecasts—are paired with growing installed base indicators.
7.5%
7.5% CAGR (2024–2030) projected for the global heat pump market, reaching $36.6B by 2030
49%
49% of the global heat pump market is forecast to come from Asia-Pacific by 2030
24.6
24.6 million units of heat pumps were sold globally in 2023 (IEA).
3.8
3.8 million homes in the UK had heat pumps installed by end of 2023
18.1%
In the US, heat pump unitary sales increased from 2022 to 2023 by 18.1% (AHRI market statistics).
source-verifiedresearchandmarkets.com · gminsights.com · iea.org · gov.uk · ahrinet.org2030
Reference
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APA
Diana Reeves. (2026, February 13). Hvac Heat Pump Industry Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/hvac-heat-pump-industry-statistics
MLA
Diana Reeves. "Hvac Heat Pump Industry Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/hvac-heat-pump-industry-statistics.
Chicago
Diana Reeves. 2026. "Hvac Heat Pump Industry Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/hvac-heat-pump-industry-statistics.
Sources & references
36 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level
+19 additional datasets cited (not shown individually)