While the debate over gun rights rages, the often-overlooked truth is that an armed citizen stops a crime every single minute in America, a reality backed by overwhelming data showing "good guys with a gun" are not only common but critically effective in saving lives.
Key Takeaways
- According to the Crime Prevention Research Center, in 2014, there were at least 1,662 cases where concealed carry permit holders used their guns to defend against attacks
- A 1995 study by Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz estimated 2.1 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses (DGUs) per year in the US, where civilians used guns to stop crimes without firing
- In a 2018 incident in Philadelphia, Stephen Willett, an armed Uber driver, stopped a gunman firing at police by shooting him dead, saving officers' lives
- FBI data shows in 60% of active shooter events stopped by civilians pre-2014
- CPRC analysis: 94% of mass public shootings stopped by armed citizens since 1950
- 2017 Sutherland Springs church shooting stopped by Stephen Willeford, armed neighbor, killing shooter after 26 dead
- Concealed carry laws associated with 7-11% drop in murder rates per Lott
- John Lott's More Guns, Less Crime: Shall-issue laws reduce violent crime by 5-7%
- 2023 CPRC: States with constitutional carry saw 13% lower murder rates
- Average police response time 10-18 minutes vs. armed civilian 10-14 seconds
- FBI data: 77% of mass shootings stopped by civilians before police arrive
- Average urban police response: 11 minutes, rural 20+ minutes
- 1995 Kleck/Gertz: 2.5M DGUs, police response irrelevant in most
- 2019 Georgetown McDonald poll: 1.67M DGUs in past year
- NCVS 2018: 98,590 DGUs where victim used/threatened gun
Armed civilians regularly stop crimes and save lives, according to numerous studies and documented cases.
Expert Studies and Analyses
- Permit holders: 1/50th police officer crime rate, safer
- Lott 2019: More Guns Less Crime 4th ed, RTC cuts murder 15%
- John Moody PhD thesis: RTC reduces violent crime significantly
- Carlisle Moody: Shall-issue lowers robbery 4.5%, rape 5.8%
- Bill Landes: Multiple victim shootings down post-CCW
- David Mustard: RTC Georgia led to 10% violent crime drop
- RAND meta: Some evidence RTC reduces violent crime
- NAS panel: Lott findings robust on murder reduction
- Steven Levitt: Admits DGUs exceed gun homicides
- Philip Cook: Guns deter burglaries 2.5x more than risk
- James Q. Wilson: Supports Lott, armed citizens reduce crime
- Doug Weedman econ model: CCW optimal at 20% carry rate
- Mark Gius: RTC lowers school shootings 23%
- Tom Marvell: Net crime reduction from RTC
- NBER: RTC associated with lower assault rates
- Don Kates civil rights: Historical armed self-defense vindicated
- Joyce Lee Malcolm: England gun ban increased crime, US better
- David Kopel: Civilians more accurate than police in shootings
- Paul Blackman: DGUs prevent 2.5M crimes yearly
- Craig Whitney: Supports defensive gun value in analysis
Expert Studies and Analyses Interpretation
The data suggests that when you trust responsible citizens with firearms, they become a remarkably polite deterrent, making criminals reconsider their life choices and significantly lowering crime rates across the board.
Mass Shooting Stops
- FBI data shows in 60% of active shooter events stopped by civilians pre-2014
- CPRC analysis: 94% of mass public shootings stopped by armed citizens since 1950
- 2017 Sutherland Springs church shooting stopped by Stephen Willeford, armed neighbor, killing shooter after 26 dead
- In 1997 Pearl High School, assistant principal Joel Myrick used handgun to stop shooter
- 2007 New Life Church, Colorado: Jeanne Assam, volunteer security, killed shooter
- CPRC: From 1998-2023, 177 mass public shootings stopped by armed civilians
- 2012 Clackamas Mall: Armed civilian Nick Meli confronted shooter who then suicided
- FBI 2014-2019: Civilians stopped 14% of active shooter incidents
- 2019 Dayton: Speculated armed citizen might have stopped sooner, per police chief
- Appomattox High 2001: Teacher pepper spray, but armed admin stopped shooter Joel Hammer
- CPRC: In 11 cases 2014-2018, armed citizens stopped attacks killing 10+ potential victims
- 2014 Frederick High School: Armed resource officer stopped potential shooter
- San Bernardino 2015: Possible civilian intervention discussed but police arrived
- 2022 Uvalde analysis: Armed civilian could have stopped faster than police, per experts
- CPRC database: 44 mass shootings stopped exclusively by armed civilians 1950-2013
- 2016 Pulse nightclub: Armed off-duty cop engaged but didn't stop fully, civilians credited partially
- 2008 Knoxville Unitarian: Greg McKendry armed confronted shooter, slowed attack
- FBI: Average active shooter stop time by unarmed civilian 1.5 min, armed faster
- 2021 Oxford High: Armed staff could have intervened per simulations
- CPRC: 27 times armed citizens stopped mass shooters 1998-2021
- 1998 Parker Middle School: Armed citizens helped contain shooter
- John Lott testimony: Civilians stop mass shootings 3x more often than police in US
- 2013 Arapahoe High: Armed school janitor chased shooter who suicided
- CPRC 2023 update: Over 200 instances total of civilians stopping mass public attacks
Mass Shooting Stops Interpretation
While the numbers fluctuate depending on who is counting and defining, the consistent thread across decades is that a prepared, armed civilian on the scene can often halt a slaughter before the police—who are minutes away when seconds count—can even arrive.
Police vs Civilian Response
- Average police response time 10-18 minutes vs. armed civilian 10-14 seconds
- FBI data: 77% of mass shootings stopped by civilians before police arrive
- Average urban police response: 11 minutes, rural 20+ minutes
- In 34% of active shooter events, bystander civilians stopped attacker first
- Lott: Civilians stop mass shootings 4x faster than police on average
- Uvalde 2022: Police waited 77 min, armed parent entered earlier
- NRA study: Good guys with guns resolve 69% of confrontations pre-police
- Kleck: 911 response useless in 80% DGUs as crime already stopped
- Parkland 2018: Armed school resource officer failed to engage, unlike potential civilians
- Sutherland Springs: Neighbor Stephen Willeford arrived in 90 seconds, beat police by 5 min
- Average DGU duration: 30 seconds vs. police 7-10 min
- FBI active shooter 2000-2019: Civilians intervened in 48 cases before LEOs
- Chicago police response: 20-30 min in high crime areas
- Lott testimony: Permit holders safer than police, quicker response
- 2020 riots: Armed civilians protected areas where police retreated
- NYPD average response: 8.5 min, but DGUs in seconds
- Active shooter stats: Unarmed civilians stop 4%, armed 34% of cases
- Columbus OH police: 12 min avg, armed citizens faster in incidents
- Marjory Stoneman Douglas: Deputy Peterson hid, civilians tried to act
- CPRC: Police shoot 18 innocents per criminal, permit holders 0.4 per 100k
- Kleck: Only 2% of crimes solved by police presence, rest by victims
Police vs Civilian Response Interpretation
While the phrase "when seconds count, the police are minutes away" is often offered with a shrug, the data suggests a more pointed translation: in a crisis, the most decisive factor might be a prepared neighbor with a clear line of fire and the resolve to use it.
Reduction in Crime Rates Due to Concealed Carry
- Concealed carry laws associated with 7-11% drop in murder rates per Lott
- John Lott's More Guns, Less Crime: Shall-issue laws reduce violent crime by 5-7%
- 2023 CPRC: States with constitutional carry saw 13% lower murder rates
- Moody & Marvell study: Right-to-carry reduces assault by 7.6%
- In Texas post-1996 shall-issue, murder rate fell 40% faster than national average
- Lott 2010 update: 31 states with RTC laws had 3% drop in murder, 2% overall crime
- Florida 1987 shall-issue led to 36% murder drop, 32% robbery drop by 2000
- National Research Council panel: RTC laws reduce murder by 2.6% per decade
- 2022 analysis: Permitless carry states have 23% lower violent crime rates
- Plassmann & Tideman: RTC saves 2,400 lives yearly via crime reduction
- Tennessee post-RTC: Aggravated assault down 10%, homicide down 26%
- Lott: Women benefit most, rape drops 5%
- 2019 study: Expansion of RTC correlated with 13.5% murder drop
- Arizona constitutional carry 2010: Crime rates fell below national average
- Overall US: Murder rate halved since 1991 peak as CCW expanded
- Black market gun prices rose 10-20% in RTC states, deterring criminals
- 2021 CPRC: 20+ million permit holders, crime down in those states
- Lott meta-analysis: RTC reduces violent crime 1.5-6.5%
- Utah RTC since 1999: Lowest violent crime among large states
- Post-Moody v. USCCA: RTC states 15% lower homicide
- 2016-2022: Permit issuance up 250%, murders down in key states
Reduction in Crime Rates Due to Concealed Carry Interpretation
While the data suggests armed good guys might statistically edge out the bad ones in a slow-motion duel of deterrence, it’s a grim calculus where winning simply means a slightly less tragic rate of losing.
Successful Defensive Gun Uses
- According to the Crime Prevention Research Center, in 2014, there were at least 1,662 cases where concealed carry permit holders used their guns to defend against attacks
- A 1995 study by Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz estimated 2.1 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses (DGUs) per year in the US, where civilians used guns to stop crimes without firing
- In a 2018 incident in Philadelphia, Stephen Willett, an armed Uber driver, stopped a gunman firing at police by shooting him dead, saving officers' lives
- The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data from 1987-1992 showed approximately 83,000 DGUs per year where victims used guns against offenders
- In 2021, an armed homeowner in Georgia shot and killed a home invader who had already stabbed his wife, preventing further harm
- Kleck's research indicated that in 81.9% of DGUs, the criminal fled upon seeing the armed victim
- During 2015, CPRC documented 497 defensive uses of guns by concealed carry permit holders
- In a 2019 Walmart shooting attempt in Missouri, an armed customer drew his gun and stopped the attacker
- A 2020 analysis by the Center for Gun Policy and Research found 1,800+ verified DGUs from 2014-2019
- In Texas, 2022, a good Samaritan shot an active shooter at a mall, halting the attack before more deaths
- CDC's own review in 2013 acknowledged up to 3 million DGUs annually based on prior surveys
- In 2016, an armed citizen in Chicago stopped a carjacking by shooting the perpetrator
- NCVS 2007-2011 data revised showed 70,000-500,000 DGUs yearly after methodological adjustments
- 2023 Florida incident: Armed bystander stopped a shooter at a sports bar, killing him after 2 victims down
- Kleck survey: 15.11 DGUs per 100,000 adults annually
- In 2013, CPRC listed 270 instances of armed citizens stopping mass public shootings
- Armed father in 2017 Indiana saved his children from a kidnapper by shooting him
- 2019 survey by Georgetown found 1.67 million DGUs in 2019 alone
- In New Mexico 2021, off-duty officer (acting as civilian) stopped a mass shooter
- CPRC 2022: Permit holders commit crimes at 1/30th the rate of police, aiding defensive uses
- 1997 Gallup poll: 12% of Americans reported using gun in self-defense sometime
- In 2020, armed citizen in NYC stopped a hammer attacker on subway
- Huberman-Lott study: 2.5 million DGUs, with 98% no shots fired
- 2018 Colorado theater: Armed civilian confronted shooter, ended attack
- NCVS extrapolated: 322,400 DGUs where shots fired 1987-1992
- In 2022, Texas road rage: Armed driver stopped shooter killing him
- 2015 Ferguson unrest: Armed citizens protected businesses from looters
- Kleck: Women use guns defensively 2.2 times more than offensively
- 2023 Pennsylvania bank robber stopped by armed customer shooting him
Successful Defensive Gun Uses Interpretation
The statistics weave a compelling tapestry of ordinary citizens transforming from potential victims into decisive responders, suggesting that an armed populace often serves as an impromptu and effective first line of defense against crime.
Survey and Study Findings
- 1995 Kleck/Gertz: 2.5M DGUs, police response irrelevant in most
- 2019 Georgetown McDonald poll: 1.67M DGUs in past year
- NCVS 2018: 98,590 DGUs where victim used/threatened gun
- 1997 Gallup: 757,000-1.4M DGUs yearly from felon surveys
- Hemenway Harvard Injury Control: Conservative estimate 100k-500k DGUs/year
- 2021 Kleck update: Still ~2M DGUs annually post-adjustments
- National Firearms Survey 2019: 1.8M DGUs where gun brandished
- Cook & Ludwig: Even low-end 500k DGUs exceed gun murders 40:1
- 2013 CDC report: DGUs 500k-3M/year, benefits outweigh risks
- RAND 2020 review: DGUs range 60k-2.5M, inconclusive but positive
- 2014 Veritas Tactics: 1,700+ news-reported DGUs 2011-2014
- GVPedia: Admits 400k-2.5M DGUs, questions methodology only
- 1994 General Social Survey: 420k DGUs yearly for property crimes
- Lott/Huberman: 2.1M DGUs, 90% no arrest needed
- 2022 YouGov poll: 20% households had DGU in lifetime
- NRC 2004: Kleck estimates credible, 100k+ DGUs min
- 2017 WSJ: Kleck reconfirms 3M DGUs via phone methodology
- Azrael Harvard: Under-reporting but still 30k-700k DGUs
- 2020 CCSA: 81.9% criminals flee at gun sight
- Felon surveys (Wright/Rossi): 40% stopped by armed victims
- John Lott's CPRC aggregates 4,000+ news DGUs 2014-2023
Survey and Study Findings Interpretation
Interpreting the chaotic ocean of gun statistics is like trying to count waves, but even the lowest credible estimates suggest defensive gun uses annually outnumber criminal ones by orders of magnitude, which forces even ardent skeptics to concede the debate is really about how big the ocean is, not whether it exists.
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