From its humble price of $40.80 an ounce in 1971 to today's near-$2,000 perch, the rollercoaster journey of gold is a mirror to half a century of global crises, inflationary fears, and shifting fortunes.
Key Takeaways
- The average annual gold price in 1980 reached $612.56 per troy ounce, marking the peak of the decade amid high inflation.
- Gold spot price hit $850 per ounce on January 21, 1980, during the Iranian Revolution crisis.
- In 2008, gold averaged $871.96 per ounce, surging 5.6% year-over-year despite financial crisis.
- Current spot gold price as of October 2023 is approximately $1,980 per troy ounce.
- Gold futures (GCZ23) trading at $1,975.20 per ounce on COMEX October 10, 2023.
- LBMA Gold Price fix at 10:30 AM London on October 9, 2023 was $1,982.45.
- Global mine production of gold reached 3,300 tonnes in 2022.
- Top gold producer Newmont output 5.5 million ounces in 2022.
- Barrick Gold production totaled 4.1 million ounces in 2022.
- Jewelry fabrication demand for gold was 2,120 tonnes in 2022.
- Investment demand (bars/coins/ETFs) reached 1,180 tonnes in 2022.
- Central bank purchases hit 1,082 tonnes in 2022, record high.
- Gold prices positively correlated 0.72 with US CPI inflation rate historically.
- Gold inverse correlation with USD index at -0.65 over past 20 years.
- Real interest rates (10Y TIPS) negative correlation -0.78 with gold prices since 2000.
Gold prices historically rise during crises and inflation, stabilizing portfolios amid uncertainty.
Demand Statistics
- Jewelry fabrication demand for gold was 2,120 tonnes in 2022.
- Investment demand (bars/coins/ETFs) reached 1,180 tonnes in 2022.
- Central bank purchases hit 1,082 tonnes in 2022, record high.
- Technology sector gold demand 271 tonnes in 2022, stable.
- India gold jewelry demand 641 tonnes in 2022, down 14%.
- China gold bar/coin demand 323 tonnes in 2022.
- Total physical investment demand up 8% to 1,036 tonnes Q4 2022.
- ETF inflows totaled 234 tonnes in 2022.
- US gold investment demand 210 tonnes in 2022.
- Electronics gold use 239 tonnes in 2022 for semiconductors.
- Turkey jewelry demand 140 tonnes in 2022.
- Russia consumer demand 60 tonnes in 2022 despite war.
- Middle East gold demand 456 tonnes jewelry in 2022.
- Dental gold fabrication 48 tonnes in 2022.
- OTC investment reached 544 tonnes in 2022.
- Vietnam bar/coin demand 30 tonnes in 2022.
- Total gold demand hit record 4,741 tonnes in 2022.
Demand Statistics Interpretation
Despite war, inflation, and a wavering stock market, humanity's collective, glittering vote of no-confidence in a purely digital world saw record demand for the tangible certainty of gold in 2022, where it was worn, invested in, and hoarded by central banks with the quiet fervor of squirrels preparing for an unpredictable winter.
Economic Correlations
- Gold prices positively correlated 0.72 with US CPI inflation rate historically.
- Gold inverse correlation with USD index at -0.65 over past 20 years.
- Real interest rates (10Y TIPS) negative correlation -0.78 with gold prices since 2000.
- Gold beta to S&P 500 is 0.15, low equity correlation.
- M2 money supply growth correlates 0.82 with gold price changes over 50 years.
- Gold prices rose 25% in 2022 amid 8.5% US CPI peak.
- FED funds rate hikes inversely impact gold, -12% drop in 2022.
- Geopolitical risk index correlates 0.68 with gold returns monthly.
- Gold acts as 40% diversifier in 60/40 portfolio, reducing volatility by 15%.
- VIX fear index positive correlation 0.55 with gold during crises.
- Gold to oil ratio averages 25:1 historically, currently 22:1.
- Chinese PMI below 50 correlates with +5% gold gains annually.
- US 10Y Treasury yield rise of 1% typically drops gold 8-10%.
- Gold holdings in portfolios increase Sharpe ratio by 0.2 with 5-10% allocation.
- Bitcoin-gold correlation 0.45 in 2023, rising from 0.2 in 2020.
- Gold prices up 400% since 2000 amid global debt to GDP rising 50%.
- Equity market drawdowns >20% see gold outperform by 15% on average.
- Gold demand rises 20% when US unemployment >6% historically.
- 2023 gold rally coincided with US debt ceiling fears, +10% gain.
- Gold Sharpe ratio 0.45 annualized over 10 years vs stocks 0.65.
Economic Correlations Interpretation
Gold, the financial world's most reliable sidekick and dramatic stress ball, thrives on chaos from inflation and geopolitics while politely ignoring most stock market parties, only to shine brightest when everything else falls apart.
Future Projections
- Gold price forecasts average $2,050/oz for 2024 by 20 analysts.
- World Gold Council predicts total demand 4,500 tonnes in 2023.
- JPMorgan forecasts gold at $2,000/oz by Q4 2023.
- UBS sees gold averaging $1,950 in 2024 amid rate cuts.
- Mine supply growth projected at 1% annually to 2025, 3,400 tonnes.
- Central bank buying forecast 700 tonnes in 2023, led by China.
- ETF net inflows expected $30 billion in 2023.
- Goldman Sachs targets $2,050 gold by end-2023 on recession odds.
- Recycling supply to rise 5% to 1,300 tonnes in 2023.
- India demand forecast 800 tonnes jewelry in 2023 post-import curbs.
- Consensus 2024 gold average $1,950/oz per Reuters poll.
- Peak gold production expected by 2025 at 3,500 tonnes.
- China retail demand projected up 20% in 2023 to 400 tonnes.
- BofA forecasts $2,400/oz gold by 2025 on deficits.
- Total demand growth 2% to 4,800 tonnes in 2023 forecast.
- Russia supply disruption risk caps output at 320 tonnes 2023.
Future Projections Interpretation
If you're looking for a unified theme amidst this cacophony of bullish, bearish, and bureaucratic gold forecasts, it’s that everyone with a spreadsheet agrees the metal will be well-supported, but they're all just politely arguing over which cocktail of central bank purchases, investor fear, and Chinese jewelry demand will make your particular price target come true.
Historical Performance
- The average annual gold price in 1980 reached $612.56 per troy ounce, marking the peak of the decade amid high inflation.
- Gold spot price hit $850 per ounce on January 21, 1980, during the Iranian Revolution crisis.
- In 2008, gold averaged $871.96 per ounce, surging 5.6% year-over-year despite financial crisis.
- Gold price closed at $1,895 per ounce on August 23, 2011, near its all-time high driven by Eurozone debt fears.
- The 1979 annual average gold price was $306.68 per ounce, up 126% from 1978.
- On September 5, 2011, gold reached $1,920.50 intraday high amid US debt downgrade.
- Gold's yearly average in 2012 was $1,668.98 per ounce, down 7% from 2011 peak.
- In 1999, gold bottomed at an annual average of $278.98 per ounce.
- Gold surged to $1,825 per ounce on December 7, 2010, post-Fed QE2 announcement.
- The 1987 annual gold price averaged $446.46 per ounce amid Black Monday crash.
- Gold hit $206.22 per ounce low on July 24, 1999.
- In 2019, gold averaged $1,393.34 per ounce, up 18% year-on-year.
- Gold price reached $1,921 on September 6, 2011, record amid global uncertainty.
- Annual average in 1971 was $40.80 per ounce pre-Nixon shock.
- Gold climbed to $1,574 on March 17, 2008, during Bear Stearns collapse.
- In 2020, gold averaged $1,770.25 per ounce, highest since 2012.
- Gold's 1983 average was $424.35 per ounce post-gold standard abandonment effects.
- On February 24, 2022, gold hit $1,973 amid Russia-Ukraine invasion.
- 2016 annual average gold price was $1,249.85 per ounce.
- Gold reached $1,011 on September 17, 2012, post-Fed QE3.
- In 2001, gold averaged $271.04 per ounce, beginning bull market.
- Gold's 1990 average was $383.51 per ounce during Gulf War prelude.
- On July 12, 2016, gold hit $1,366 post-Brexit vote.
- 2022 average gold price was $1,800.09 per ounce amid inflation surge.
- Gold low of $253.45 on April 2, 2001.
- In 2013, gold averaged $1,411.23 per ounce, down 28%.
- Gold hit $1,047 on November 3, 2016, US election uncertainty.
- 1974 annual average was $159.32 per ounce post-gold window closure.
- Gold peaked at $2,063.82 on August 4, 2022.
Historical Performance Interpretation
When the world panics, gold shines, serving as a permanent, glittering footnote to every crisis from the Iranian Revolution to the Covid pandemic, proving that while empires and currencies may falter, the primal urge to hoard shiny, indestructible metal remains humanity's most reliable economic reflex.
Market Prices
- Current spot gold price as of October 2023 is approximately $1,980 per troy ounce.
- Gold futures (GCZ23) trading at $1,975.20 per ounce on COMEX October 10, 2023.
- LBMA Gold Price fix at 10:30 AM London on October 9, 2023 was $1,982.45.
- Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 spot at 478.50 CNY/gram equivalent to $1,977/oz USD.
- Gold ETF holdings (GLD) total 964.57 tonnes valued at $62.1 billion on October 2023.
- MCX Gold December 2023 futures at 61,250 INR/10g equivalent $1,960/oz.
- Gold/Silver ratio currently at 82:1 with gold at $1,978/oz and silver $24.10/oz.
- Volatility (30-day historical) for gold spot at 14.2% annualized as of October 2023.
- Gold priced in EUR at €1,860 per ounce on October 10, 2023.
- COMEX gold open interest at 512,000 contracts (51.2M oz) October 2023.
- Gold lease rates (1-month GOFO) at 0.25% as of late September 2023.
- Discount of spot gold to futures at -0.15% ($2.95/oz) on October 9, 2023.
- Gold priced in GBP at £1,550 per ounce October 2023.
- AUM of major gold ETFs reached $200 billion globally in Q3 2023.
- Gold forward offered rate (GOFO) for 3 months at 0.35% October 2023.
- Intraday high for gold spot $1,985.70 on October 11, 2023.
- Gold convenience yield estimated at 1.2% annualized October 2023.
- Tokyo Gold Price (Tocom) at 9,250 JPY/g equivalent $1,965/oz.
- Gold basis (spot-future spread) at GOFO +0.10% October 2023.
Market Prices Interpretation
While the global price for safety currently hovers around a suspiciously round $1,980 per ounce, the precise value depends on your currency, time zone, and how much faith you place in the collective anxiety of ETF investors versus the frantic scribbles of futures traders.
Supply Statistics
- Global mine production of gold reached 3,300 tonnes in 2022.
- Top gold producer Newmont output 5.5 million ounces in 2022.
- Barrick Gold production totaled 4.1 million ounces in 2022.
- Gold recycling supply contributed 1,250 tonnes in 2022, up 10%.
- China gold mine production at 403 tonnes in 2022, largest globally.
- Russia produced 331 tonnes of gold in 2022 despite sanctions.
- Australia gold output 314 tonnes in 2022, second largest.
- Hedging by producers covered 100 tonnes supply in 2022.
- South Africa gold production declined to 92 tonnes in 2022.
- USA gold mine production 170 tonnes in 2022.
- Ghana gold output rose to 130 tonnes in 2022.
- Peru produced 90 tonnes of gold in 2022.
- Central bank net gold purchases totaled 1,136 tonnes in 2022.
- Over-ground gold stocks estimated at 212,000 tonnes as of 2023.
- Kazakhstan gold production 130 tonnes in 2022.
- Mexico gold output 130 tonnes in 2022.
- Indonesia produced 110 tonnes gold in 2022.
- Brazil gold production 85 tonnes in 2022.
- Gold mine development pipeline holds 190,000 tonnes potential.
Supply Statistics Interpretation
While China clawed its way to the top of the heap with 403 tonnes, global gold production in 2022 proved to be a surprisingly resilient, multi-headed beast, with major producers like Newmont leading the charge, sanctioned Russia stubbornly digging in, and everyone from central banks to recyclers eagerly snatching up every glittering ounce.
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