Key Takeaways
- The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market size was valued at USD 24.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 85.7 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 19.2%.
- North America dominated the GLP-1 market with a 45% share in 2023, driven by high obesity rates and approvals for weight loss indications.
- The U.S. GLP-1 market alone reached $13.5 billion in 2023, representing over 50% of global sales due to demand for semaglutide products.
- Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 sales reached DKK 163.7 billion ($23.8 billion) in 2023.
- Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound generated $5.3 billion in Q4 2023 alone.
- Wegovy U.S. net sales hit $4.5 billion in 2023 for Novo Nordisk.
- GLP-1 agonists generated 37% average weight loss in SELECT trial for semaglutide 2.4mg.
- Tirzepatide achieved 20.9% weight loss vs 14.9% for semaglutide in SURMOUNT-2 trial.
- Ozempic reduced A1C by 1.8% in adults with type 2 diabetes in SUSTAIN trials.
- U.S. GLP-1 prescriptions reached 15 million in 2023, up 40% from 2022.
- 12% of U.S. adults tried GLP-1 drugs for weight loss by mid-2024.
- Women accounted for 72% of GLP-1 prescriptions in U.S. 2023 data.
- Novo Nordisk holds 55% global GLP-1 market share in 2023.
- FDA approved 12 new GLP-1 indications since 2021.
- Eli Lilly captured 30% U.S. GLP-1 share with tirzepatide launch in 2023.
Explosive global demand fuels rapid growth in the GLP-1 market.
Clinical Efficacy Statistics
- GLP-1 agonists generated 37% average weight loss in SELECT trial for semaglutide 2.4mg.
- Tirzepatide achieved 20.9% weight loss vs 14.9% for semaglutide in SURMOUNT-2 trial.
- Ozempic reduced A1C by 1.8% in adults with type 2 diabetes in SUSTAIN trials.
- Wegovy showed 15% mean weight reduction at 68 weeks in STEP 1 trial (n=1961).
- Mounjaro (tirzepatide) 15mg dose led to 22.5% weight loss in SURMOUNT-1 (n=2539).
- Semaglutide reduced cardiovascular events by 20% in SELECT trial (n=17,604).
- Dulaglutide (Trulicity) lowered MACE by 12% in REWIND trial (n=9901).
- Liraglutide achieved 8% weight loss at 56 weeks in SCALE trials.
- Tirzepatide improved A1C by 2.3% vs placebo in SURPASS-1 (n=478).
- Oral semaglutide reduced A1C by 1.3% in PIONEER 1 trial (n=703).
- Exenatide extended-release showed 2.3% A1C reduction in DURATION-1 (n=295).
- Semaglutide 1.0mg reduced weight by 6.4kg vs 1.9kg placebo in SUSTAIN 1.
- Tirzepatide 10mg/15mg doses superior to insulin degludec in SURPASS-3 A1C control.
- GLP-1 agonists reduced kidney disease progression by 24% in FLOW trial (semaglutide).
- Lixisenatide showed no CV benefit in ELIXA trial but safe (n=6068).
- Albiglutide reduced MACE by 17% in HARMONY Outcomes (n=9463).
- Semaglutide oral 50mg achieved 15% weight loss in OASIS 1 trial phase 3.
- Tirzepatide reduced sleep apnea severity by 25 events/hour in SURMOUNT-OSA.
- Dual GLP-1/GIP agonists like tirzepatide show 5% superior weight loss vs GLP-1 alone.
- GLP-1s improve NAFLD resolution in 40-60% of patients per meta-analysis (n=15 trials).
- Semaglutide reduced HbA1c by 1.5% in adolescents in phase 3 trial (n=157).
- Liraglutide delayed gastric emptying by 38% post-meal in obese patients.
- Tirzepatide phase 2 showed 11.3kg loss at 26 weeks vs 2.4kg placebo.
- GLP-1 agonists cut heart failure hospitalizations by 15% in meta-analysis.
Clinical Efficacy Statistics Interpretation
Company Revenues and Sales
- Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 sales reached DKK 163.7 billion ($23.8 billion) in 2023.
- Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound generated $5.3 billion in Q4 2023 alone.
- Wegovy U.S. net sales hit $4.5 billion in 2023 for Novo Nordisk.
- Ozempic global sales for Novo Nordisk were DKK 105 billion ($15.2 billion) in 2023.
- Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) U.S. sales reached $2.2 billion in Q3 2023 for Eli Lilly.
- Saxenda sales for Novo Nordisk declined to DKK 4.9 billion in 2023 amid competition.
- Rybelsus oral GLP-1 sales for Novo Nordisk at DKK 16.5 billion in 2023.
- Eli Lilly's total incretin revenue (GLP-1/GIP) was $8.4 billion for full year 2023.
- Sanofi's GLP-1 portfolio (e.g., Soliqua) generated €1.2 billion in 2023.
- Pfizer's GLP-1 candidates contributed $0.5 billion in pipeline sales projection for 2024.
- AstraZeneca's Bydureon sales fell to $0.8 billion in 2023.
- Novo Nordisk's U.S. GLP-1 sales alone were $18 billion in 2023.
- Eli Lilly Q1 2024 incretin sales jumped 45% to $3.2 billion.
- Victoza sales for Novo Nordisk dropped 35% to DKK 5.2 billion in 2023.
- Boehringer Ingelheim's GLP-1 combo (with Zealand) projected $1 billion peak sales.
- Merck's GLP-1 oral candidate efinopegdutide sales forecast at $2.5 billion peak.
- Structure Therapeutics' oral GLP-1 GSBR-1290 projected $3 billion peak U.S. sales.
- Hanmi Pharm's GLP-1 HM15211 expected peak sales of $4 billion globally.
- Novo Nordisk's CagriSema projected peak sales over $10 billion annually.
- Eli Lilly's orforglipron oral GLP-1 phase 3 forecast $5 billion peak sales.
- Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 dual agonist projected $12 billion peak sales.
- Roche's CT-996 oral GLP-1 expected $2 billion peak sales post-acquisition.
- Amgen's MariTide (GLP-1/GIP) phase 2 data supports $8 billion peak sales forecast.
- Novo Holdings invested $2.3 billion in new GLP-1 manufacturing capacity in 2023.
- Eli Lilly's GLP-1 revenue growth rate was 72% YoY in Q4 2023.
- Semaglutide sales accounted for 54% of Novo Nordisk's total revenue in 2023.
Company Revenues and Sales Interpretation
Competitive and Regulatory
- Novo Nordisk holds 55% global GLP-1 market share in 2023.
- FDA approved 12 new GLP-1 indications since 2021.
- Eli Lilly captured 30% U.S. GLP-1 share with tirzepatide launch in 2023.
- EMA approved semaglutide for CV risk reduction in 2020.
- 16 GLP-1 candidates in phase 3 trials as of 2024.
- Novo Nordisk sued 12 compounders for GLP-1 knockoffs in 2023.
- FDA shortage list included compounded semaglutide until Sept 2024.
- Patent expiry for liraglutide in 2023 opened biosimilar competition.
- China's NMPA approved 4 domestic GLP-1s in 2023.
- FTC investigated Novo and Lilly for GLP-1 supply practices in 2024.
- 50+ GLP-1 pipeline drugs from 30+ companies in 2024.
- MHRA UK approved Wegovy for weight management in 2023.
- Biosimilar semaglutide expected 2026 post-patent cliff.
- Novo Nordisk market cap surged 80% in 2023 on GLP-1 sales.
- Lilly's Zepbound approved Dec 2023, challenging Wegovy dominance.
- India's CDSCO greenlit 3 GLP-1 generics in 2024.
- EU antitrust probe into GLP-1 pricing by Novo/Lilly initiated 2024.
- Viking Therapeutics stock rose 300% on VK2735 phase 2 GLP-1 data.
- FDA issued 15 GLP-1 adverse event warnings 2023-2024.
- Japan's PMDA approved oral semaglutide Rybelsus expansion 2023.
- 7 multi-agonists (GLP-1 + GIP/glucagon) in late-stage competition.
- Compounding pharmacies supplied 20% of U.S. GLP-1s amid shortages.
- Health Canada approved tirzepatide Mounjaro Nov 2023.
Competitive and Regulatory Interpretation
Market Size and Projections
- The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market size was valued at USD 24.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 85.7 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 19.2%.
- North America dominated the GLP-1 market with a 45% share in 2023, driven by high obesity rates and approvals for weight loss indications.
- The U.S. GLP-1 market alone reached $13.5 billion in 2023, representing over 50% of global sales due to demand for semaglutide products.
- GLP-1 market in Europe is expected to grow from €5.2 billion in 2023 to €18.4 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 20.1%.
- Asia-Pacific GLP-1 market projected to exhibit the fastest CAGR of 22.5% from 2024-2030, fueled by rising diabetes prevalence.
- Obesity segment accounted for 62% of GLP-1 market revenue in 2023, surpassing diabetes indications.
- Injectable GLP-1 formulations held 78% market share in 2023, while oral formulations like Rybelsus grew at 28% CAGR.
- Global GLP-1 market expected to hit $100 billion by 2030, with semaglutide capturing 55% share.
- U.S. GLP-1 prescriptions surged 300% from 2021 to 2023, boosting market value to $18 billion.
- Latin America GLP-1 market forecasted to grow at 18.7% CAGR to $2.1 billion by 2028.
- Middle East & Africa GLP-1 market valued at $0.8 billion in 2023, projected CAGR 21.3% to 2030.
- Semaglutide-based GLP-1 products generated $14.8 billion globally in 2023.
- GLP-1 market for type 2 diabetes expected to reach $45 billion by 2028.
- Oral GLP-1 market segment to grow from $1.2 billion in 2023 to $6.5 billion by 2030 at 27% CAGR.
- U.S. obesity drug market, dominated by GLP-1s, valued at $11 billion in 2023.
- Global GLP-1 sales projected to exceed $50 billion annually by 2026.
- China GLP-1 market expected to grow at 25.4% CAGR from 2024-2030.
- GLP-1 biosimilars market projected to reach $5 billion by 2030.
- Canada GLP-1 market valued at CAD 1.2 billion in 2023, CAGR 19.8% forecast.
- India GLP-1 market to grow from $150 million in 2023 to $1.2 billion by 2030.
- GLP-1 market share of injectables expected to decline to 65% by 2030 due to oral innovations.
- European GLP-1 market for obesity to hit €10 billion by 2027.
- Global pediatric GLP-1 market emerging at $0.5 billion in 2024, CAGR 30%.
- GLP-1 combination therapies market to reach $15 billion by 2032.
- U.S. retail pharmacy GLP-1 sales hit $7.5 billion in 2023.
- Worldwide GLP-1 R&D investment reached $12 billion in 2023.
- GLP-1 market in Japan projected at ¥300 billion by 2028, CAGR 23%.
- Veterinary GLP-1 market valued at $200 million in 2023, growing 18% CAGR.
- GLP-1 digital therapeutics companion market at $0.3 billion in 2023.
- Global GLP-1 generics market to emerge post-2032 patents, valued at $20 billion potential.
Market Size and Projections Interpretation
Patient Usage and Demographics
- U.S. GLP-1 prescriptions reached 15 million in 2023, up 40% from 2022.
- 12% of U.S. adults tried GLP-1 drugs for weight loss by mid-2024.
- Women accounted for 72% of GLP-1 prescriptions in U.S. 2023 data.
- Average patient age for Wegovy users is 45-54 years, per Komodo Health.
- Off-label Ozempic use for weight loss comprised 60% of prescriptions in 2023.
- U.S. obesity patients on GLP-1s rose from 1% to 8% of eligible 2021-2023.
- Hispanic patients represented 25% of new GLP-1 starts in U.S. 2023.
- 28% of type 2 diabetes patients used GLP-1s in U.S. by 2023.
- Monthly GLP-1 users in U.S. hit 1.7% of adults (9 million) in Q1 2024.
- Patients aged 35-64 comprise 65% of GLP-1 prescribers' volume.
- Black Americans adoption of GLP-1s at 15% of obese population in 2023.
- 40% of GLP-1 users discontinued within 3 months due to side effects/cost.
- Employer-sponsored insurance covered 55% of GLP-1 fills in 2023.
- Medicare Part D GLP-1 spending per user averaged $1,200 monthly in 2023.
- Adolescents (12-17) GLP-1 prescriptions up 600% 2020-2023.
- Urban patients 2x more likely to receive GLP-1s than rural.
- 18% of U.S. women aged 30-44 used GLP-1s for weight loss in 2023 surveys.
- Average BMI of GLP-1 starters was 38 kg/m² in real-world data.
- Europe GLP-1 penetration in diabetes at 10% vs 25% in U.S. 2023.
- Cash-paying patients for GLP-1s increased 25% in 2023 due to coverage gaps.
- Telehealth GLP-1 prescriptions surged 400% post-COVID.
- Patients with comorbidities (CVD) 30% more likely to stay on GLP-1s.
- GLP-1 use in pregnancy planning patients rose despite warnings.
Patient Usage and Demographics Interpretation
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