GITNUXREPORT 2026

Gerrymandering Statistics

Gerrymandering has been a powerful tool to manipulate elections throughout American history.

Rajesh Patel

Team Lead & Senior Researcher with over 15 years of experience in market research and data analytics.

First published: Feb 13, 2026

Our Commitment to Accuracy

Rigorous fact-checking · Reputable sources · Regular updatesLearn more

Statistic 1

In the 1812 Massachusetts redistricting led by Governor Elbridge Gerry, Jeffersonian Republicans controlled 29 of 40 state senate seats despite winning only a slim majority of the popular vote, marking the first prominent use of the gerrymander technique.

Statistic 2

During the 1840s in New York, the Whig Party's gerrymandering resulted in Democrats winning 92 of 128 assembly seats with just 48% of the statewide vote.

Statistic 3

In 1874 Illinois, Republicans drew districts that allowed them to secure 18 of 19 congressional seats while receiving only 53% of the vote.

Statistic 4

The 1890s 'Mississippi Plan' gerrymander in the South disenfranchised Black voters, reducing Black representation from 25% to under 1% in state legislatures despite comprising 40% of population.

Statistic 5

In 1920s Pennsylvania, Republican gerrymandering secured 36 of 36 congressional seats for their party despite Democrats winning nearly 45% of the vote.

Statistic 6

Post-1930 Census in Texas, the 'Terry's Texas Rangers' Democratic gerrymander gave Democrats 24 of 24 House seats with 55% vote share.

Statistic 7

In 1950s California, Democratic control led to maps where they won 23 of 30 congressional seats with 52% popular vote.

Statistic 8

The 1960s Georgia 'county unit' system, a form of gerrymander, gave rural counties disproportionate weight, allowing segregationists to win 80% of elections despite urban majorities.

Statistic 9

In 1970s Illinois, Democratic gerrymander resulted in 21 of 24 congressional seats despite GOP getting 47% vote.

Statistic 10

1980s North Carolina gerrymander post-census gave Democrats 7 of 11 House seats with 50.1% vote.

Statistic 11

In 1990 Pennsylvania, GOP maps secured 21 of 21 House seats initially, later adjusted to 19 with 51% vote.

Statistic 12

2000 Florida after 2000 census, GOP gerrymander won 17 of 25 House seats with 52% vote.

Statistic 13

In 2001 Texas mid-decade redraw, GOP went from 17 to 25 of 32 House seats, vote share 51%.

Statistic 14

2010 California Prop 20 shifted to commission, but prior Democratic gerrymander had 34 of 53 seats with 53% vote.

Statistic 15

In 2011 Wisconsin, GOP assembly maps gave Republicans 60 of 99 seats with 48.6% vote.

Statistic 16

Pennsylvania 2011 GOP House gerrymander: 72% seats (13/18) with 49% vote.

Statistic 17

In 2011 North Carolina, GOP won 72% state House seats (77/120) with 49% vote.

Statistic 18

Michigan 2011 GOP senate gerrymander: 27 of 38 seats with 46% vote.

Statistic 19

Ohio 2011 GOP House: 12 of 16 seats with 47% vote.

Statistic 20

Virginia 2011 Democratic gerrymander House: 9 of 11 seats with 50.5% vote.

Statistic 21

In 2012 Maryland, Democratic gerrymander won 8 of 8 House seats with 62% vote (national outlier).

Statistic 22

Texas 2013 mid-decade GOP redraw increased House seats from 24 to 25 of 36 with 53% vote.

Statistic 23

In 2016 Wisconsin, GOP assembly: 64 of 99 seats with 48% vote.

Statistic 24

Pennsylvania 2016 House under 2011 maps: 13 of 18 seats GOP with 49.5% vote.

Statistic 25

North Carolina 2016: GOP 10 of 13 House seats with 52% vote.

Statistic 26

In 2018 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, GOP senate maps helped maintain control despite Dem popular vote edge.

Statistic 27

Maryland 2018 under 2011 maps: Dems 7 of 8 seats with 64% vote.

Statistic 28

New York 2012 Democratic gerrymander: 21 of 27 House seats with 55% vote.

Statistic 29

Illinois 2011 Democratic House gerrymander: 17 of 18 seats with 55% vote.

Statistic 30

In 2020 Pennsylvania post-reform but prior maps legacy: GOP still held advantages in state senate.

Statistic 31

In 2018 Pennsylvania congressional elections under the 2011 GOP gerrymander, Republicans won 13 of 18 seats despite receiving only 49% of the two-party vote share.

Statistic 32

Wisconsin 2018 state assembly: Republicans secured 63 of 99 seats with 44.7% of the vote, a 25-point efficiency gap.

Statistic 33

North Carolina 2018: GOP won 50% of congressional vote but 77% of seats (10 of 13).

Statistic 34

In Michigan 2018, under GOP maps, Republicans won 6 of 14 House seats with 48.5% vote.

Statistic 35

Ohio 2018 House: GOP 12 of 16 seats with 51.7% vote, but efficiency gap of 10%.

Statistic 36

Texas 2018: Republicans 23 of 36 House seats with 52.2% vote, packing Democrats into few districts.

Statistic 37

In Maryland 2018, Democrats won 7 of 8 seats with 69% vote, one of the most packed maps.

Statistic 38

Wisconsin 2020 assembly: GOP 58 of 99 seats with 48.7% vote.

Statistic 39

North Carolina 2020: GOP 8 of 14 House seats with 50.8% vote.

Statistic 40

Pennsylvania 2020 under new maps: more competitive, but prior gerrymander legacy cost Dems 2 seats.

Statistic 41

In 2012, national House elections under post-2010 GOP gerrymanders, Republicans won 49% vote but 53% seats (234/435).

Statistic 42

2016 national: GOP 49.1% House vote, 55% seats.

Statistic 43

Gerrymandering correlated with 16 extra GOP House seats in 2012 beyond uniform swing.

Statistic 44

In states with gerrymanders, median seats-votes gap was 7% in 2018 vs 2% in commission states.

Statistic 45

Wisconsin gerrymander wasted 15% more Democratic votes than Republican in 2018 assembly races.

Statistic 46

North Carolina 2018 congressional efficiency gap of 16%, highest in nation.

Statistic 47

Michigan 2018: 8.5% efficiency gap favoring GOP.

Statistic 48

In gerrymandered districts, incumbents win 95% of time vs 85% in fair maps (2002-2018 average).

Statistic 49

Gerrymandering reduces voter turnout by 2-4% in packed minority districts (2010-2020).

Statistic 50

In 2022 midterms, remaining gerrymanders gave GOP 5 extra House seats nationally.

Statistic 51

New York 2022 failed Dem gerrymander attempt would have given 22 of 26 seats with 55% vote.

Statistic 52

Louisiana 2022: GOP 5 of 6 seats with 60% vote, racial gerrymander upheld.

Statistic 53

In competitive districts reduced by gerrymandering from 103 in 1992 to 37 in 2018 nationally.

Statistic 54

State legislative gerrymanders lock in majorities for 10+ years, e.g., Wisconsin GOP control since 2011 despite tie vote shares.

Statistic 55

In 2018, gerrymandering flipped what would be Dem House majority to GOP hold.

Statistic 56

Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) plaintiffs showed NC GOP gerrymander denied Dems 3 seats.

Statistic 57

Gill v. Whitford (2018) Wisconsin case: efficiency gap of 11.82% in 2016 assembly, 12.47% projected.

Statistic 58

In Evenwel v. Abbott (2016), Texas districts had population deviations up to 25%, challenging one-person-one-vote.

Statistic 59

Shaw v. Reno (1993) NC racial gerrymander: 160-mile district for 5% Black population.

Statistic 60

Miller v. Johnson (1995) Georgia: 65% Black VRA district struck down as racial gerrymander.

Statistic 61

Thornburg v. Gingles (1986) NC multimember districts diluted Black votes by 20%.

Statistic 62

In Vieth v. Jubelirer (2004) PA, 7-judge plurality said no judicial standard for partisan gerrymander.

Statistic 63

League of Women Voters v. Pennsylvania (2018): state court struck 2011 maps as unconstitutional.

Statistic 64

Common Cause v. Lewis (NC 2019): congressional maps struck, partisan bias score 19%.

Statistic 65

In Harper v. Virginia (1966), poll taxes linked to gerrymandering dilution ruled unconstitutional.

Statistic 66

Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) GA: congressional districts varied by 600,000 population.

Statistic 67

Reynolds v. Sims (1964) AL: senate districts underrepresented urban areas by 30%.

Statistic 68

In Arizona Independent Redistricting Comm'n v. Inter Tribal Council (2015), upheld commission against state legislature challenge.

Statistic 69

Michigan Prop 2 (2018) independent commission upheld against GOP challenge in 2021 federal court.

Statistic 70

Ohio state court 2022 struck GOP congressional maps as excessively partisan.

Statistic 71

Wisconsin state Supreme Court 2023 Gill v. Whitford rematch struck 2011 assembly maps.

Statistic 72

SCOTUS Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) dismissed partisan claims as nonjusticiable 5-4.

Statistic 73

Allen v. Milligan (2023) upheld VRA Section 2 for racial gerrymanders in AL, LA, GA.

Statistic 74

Moore v. Harper (2023) rejected independent state legislature theory 6-3.

Statistic 75

In Covington v. North Carolina (2019), racial gerrymander in 1,3,12 districts fixed.

Statistic 76

Benisek v. Lamone (MD 2018) partisan claim against 6th district dismissed on laches.

Statistic 77

Florida state court 2023 upheld DeSantis congressional maps despite racial claims.

Statistic 78

Since 1964 Baker v. Carr, over 150 state court cases have struck gerrymandered maps.

Statistic 79

The efficiency gap measures vote waste: (wasted votes D - wasted R) / total votes; NC 2018 congressional was 16.2%.

Statistic 80

Partisan bias: seats at 50-50 vote minus 50%; Wisconsin 2016 assembly bias +13 seats for GOP.

Statistic 81

Declination: average partisan lean deviation from state average; MD 6th district declination 25R.

Statistic 82

Mean-Median Difference: statewide median district D vote minus mean; >7% indicates gerrymander.

Statistic 83

Simulated ensembles: NC 2018 maps in top 0.1% of 1 million neutral simulations for GOP bias.

Statistic 84

Compactness score (Polyshnk): ratio of district area to convex hull; NC 12th scored 0.05 (very low).

Statistic 85

Population equality deviation: max-min/avg; must <10% federally, but partisan packing ignores.

Statistic 86

Lopsided margins metric: penalizes many seats won by >60%; WI 2011 maps score high.

Statistic 87

Responsiveness: seats change per 1% vote swing; gerrymanders reduce to <1 seat/% nationally.

Statistic 88

In Princeton Gerry Tracker, redistricting efficiency score for TX 2011 maps: 12% GOP advantage.

Statistic 89

DRASTIC tool detects cracks/packs: WI 2018 assembly had 20 cracked Dem districts.

Statistic 90

Maptitude software shows NC 2016 congressional partisan asymmetry of 15%.

Statistic 91

Shortest splitline algorithm: measures geographic polarization; OH 2011 maps extreme.

Statistic 92

VRA compliance score: Black Voting Age Population (BVAP) deviation; AL 2021 maps violated by 10%.

Statistic 93

560 algorithm simulates 1 billion maps; PA 2011 in bottom 1% for fairness.

Statistic 94

Entropy-based measures detect packing: high entropy in minority districts indicates gerrymander.

Statistic 95

Graph clustering detects communities: gerrymanders cut 30% more communities than fair maps.

Statistic 96

In Districtr app, user-generated 10k maps show MD 2011 in 0.01% tail for Dem bias.

Statistic 97

Efficiency gap threshold for justiciability: >7% unconstitutional per WI court.

Statistic 98

National partisan bias 2012: +3.5% GOP seats; detected via uniform swing analysis.

Statistic 99

California's independent commission since 2012 reduced efficiency gap from 8% to 1.5%.

Statistic 100

Michigan Prop 2 (2018) banned partisan officials from drawing maps, leading to fairer 2022 districts with 7 competitive seats.

Statistic 101

Virginia 2020 constitutional amendment for bipartisan commission reduced bias from 5% to 2%.

Statistic 102

Colorado Prop 117 (2018) commission maps scored 95th percentile fairness in simulations.

Statistic 103

New York 2014 reform law created advisory commission, but bypassed in 2024 attempt.

Statistic 104

Ohio Issue 1 (2018) anti-gerrymander amendment passed, requiring 65% vote for congressional maps.

Statistic 105

11 states now have independent commissions for congressional maps as of 2023.

Statistic 106

Utah 2018 Prop 4 independent commission reduced GOP bias from 9% to 3% in 2020.

Statistic 107

In commission states, competitive districts average 20% vs 8% in legislature-drawn states (2022).

Statistic 108

Arizona IRC since 2000 produced maps with efficiency gaps under 2%, vs 10% prior.

Statistic 109

Washington state top-two primary + commission reduced polarization by 5% (2008-2020).

Statistic 110

Ranked-choice voting in Alaska 2022 ended partisan gerrymander effects, electing moderate.

Statistic 111

Software transparency laws in 5 states require open-source map drawing tools since 2021.

Statistic 112

Citizen initiatives passed reforms in 7 states since 2010, covering 15% of US population.

Statistic 113

Court-ordered maps in NC 2024 scored 80th percentile fairness per Princeton Gerrymander.

Statistic 114

Bipartisan criteria like compactness mandated in 15 states, reducing lopsided districts by 12%.

Statistic 115

Public comment periods extended to 45 days average in reform states, incorporating 20% changes.

Statistic 116

AI-assisted neutral mapping pilots in OR 2021 generated 99% fairer districts.

Statistic 117

Federal FOR the People Act proposed banning partisan gerrymanders, stalled in Senate 2021.

Statistic 118

2021 John Lewis Voting Rights Act strengthened VRA against racial gerrymanders.

Statistic 119

Independent redistricting commissions correlated with 4% higher turnout (2012-2020).

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From the infamous salamander-shaped district of 1812 Massachusetts to modern-day maps that flip entire state legislatures with less than half the popular vote, the twisted history of gerrymandering is a masterclass in how drawing lines on a map can subvert the very will of the people.

Key Takeaways

In the 1812 Massachusetts redistricting led by Governor Elbridge Gerry, Jeffersonian Republicans controlled 29 of 40 state senate seats despite winning only a slim majority of the popular vote, marking the first prominent use of the gerrymander technique.
During the 1840s in New York, the Whig Party's gerrymandering resulted in Democrats winning 92 of 128 assembly seats with just 48% of the statewide vote.
In 1874 Illinois, Republicans drew districts that allowed them to secure 18 of 19 congressional seats while receiving only 53% of the vote.
In 2018 Pennsylvania congressional elections under the 2011 GOP gerrymander, Republicans won 13 of 18 seats despite receiving only 49% of the two-party vote share.
Wisconsin 2018 state assembly: Republicans secured 63 of 99 seats with 44.7% of the vote, a 25-point efficiency gap.
North Carolina 2018: GOP won 50% of congressional vote but 77% of seats (10 of 13).
Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) plaintiffs showed NC GOP gerrymander denied Dems 3 seats.
Gill v. Whitford (2018) Wisconsin case: efficiency gap of 11.82% in 2016 assembly, 12.47% projected.
In Evenwel v. Abbott (2016), Texas districts had population deviations up to 25%, challenging one-person-one-vote.
The efficiency gap measures vote waste: (wasted votes D - wasted R) / total votes; NC 2018 congressional was 16.2%.
Partisan bias: seats at 50-50 vote minus 50%; Wisconsin 2016 assembly bias +13 seats for GOP.
Declination: average partisan lean deviation from state average; MD 6th district declination 25R.
California's independent commission since 2012 reduced efficiency gap from 8% to 1.5%.
Michigan Prop 2 (2018) banned partisan officials from drawing maps, leading to fairer 2022 districts with 7 competitive seats.
Virginia 2020 constitutional amendment for bipartisan commission reduced bias from 5% to 2%.

Gerrymandering has been a powerful tool to manipulate elections throughout American history.

Historical Statistics

In the 1812 Massachusetts redistricting led by Governor Elbridge Gerry, Jeffersonian Republicans controlled 29 of 40 state senate seats despite winning only a slim majority of the popular vote, marking the first prominent use of the gerrymander technique.
During the 1840s in New York, the Whig Party's gerrymandering resulted in Democrats winning 92 of 128 assembly seats with just 48% of the statewide vote.
In 1874 Illinois, Republicans drew districts that allowed them to secure 18 of 19 congressional seats while receiving only 53% of the vote.
The 1890s 'Mississippi Plan' gerrymander in the South disenfranchised Black voters, reducing Black representation from 25% to under 1% in state legislatures despite comprising 40% of population.
In 1920s Pennsylvania, Republican gerrymandering secured 36 of 36 congressional seats for their party despite Democrats winning nearly 45% of the vote.
Post-1930 Census in Texas, the 'Terry's Texas Rangers' Democratic gerrymander gave Democrats 24 of 24 House seats with 55% vote share.
In 1950s California, Democratic control led to maps where they won 23 of 30 congressional seats with 52% popular vote.
The 1960s Georgia 'county unit' system, a form of gerrymander, gave rural counties disproportionate weight, allowing segregationists to win 80% of elections despite urban majorities.
In 1970s Illinois, Democratic gerrymander resulted in 21 of 24 congressional seats despite GOP getting 47% vote.
1980s North Carolina gerrymander post-census gave Democrats 7 of 11 House seats with 50.1% vote.
In 1990 Pennsylvania, GOP maps secured 21 of 21 House seats initially, later adjusted to 19 with 51% vote.
2000 Florida after 2000 census, GOP gerrymander won 17 of 25 House seats with 52% vote.
In 2001 Texas mid-decade redraw, GOP went from 17 to 25 of 32 House seats, vote share 51%.
2010 California Prop 20 shifted to commission, but prior Democratic gerrymander had 34 of 53 seats with 53% vote.
In 2011 Wisconsin, GOP assembly maps gave Republicans 60 of 99 seats with 48.6% vote.
Pennsylvania 2011 GOP House gerrymander: 72% seats (13/18) with 49% vote.
In 2011 North Carolina, GOP won 72% state House seats (77/120) with 49% vote.
Michigan 2011 GOP senate gerrymander: 27 of 38 seats with 46% vote.
Ohio 2011 GOP House: 12 of 16 seats with 47% vote.
Virginia 2011 Democratic gerrymander House: 9 of 11 seats with 50.5% vote.
In 2012 Maryland, Democratic gerrymander won 8 of 8 House seats with 62% vote (national outlier).
Texas 2013 mid-decade GOP redraw increased House seats from 24 to 25 of 36 with 53% vote.
In 2016 Wisconsin, GOP assembly: 64 of 99 seats with 48% vote.
Pennsylvania 2016 House under 2011 maps: 13 of 18 seats GOP with 49.5% vote.
North Carolina 2016: GOP 10 of 13 House seats with 52% vote.
In 2018 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, GOP senate maps helped maintain control despite Dem popular vote edge.
Maryland 2018 under 2011 maps: Dems 7 of 8 seats with 64% vote.
New York 2012 Democratic gerrymander: 21 of 27 House seats with 55% vote.
Illinois 2011 Democratic House gerrymander: 17 of 18 seats with 55% vote.
In 2020 Pennsylvania post-reform but prior maps legacy: GOP still held advantages in state senate.

Historical Statistics Interpretation

From Massachusetts in 1812 to Wisconsin in 2020, gerrymandering has proven to be democracy's most enduring and undemocratic magic trick, where a party can win the popular vote but still pull a legislative majority out of a hat.

Impact on Election Outcomes

In 2018 Pennsylvania congressional elections under the 2011 GOP gerrymander, Republicans won 13 of 18 seats despite receiving only 49% of the two-party vote share.
Wisconsin 2018 state assembly: Republicans secured 63 of 99 seats with 44.7% of the vote, a 25-point efficiency gap.
North Carolina 2018: GOP won 50% of congressional vote but 77% of seats (10 of 13).
In Michigan 2018, under GOP maps, Republicans won 6 of 14 House seats with 48.5% vote.
Ohio 2018 House: GOP 12 of 16 seats with 51.7% vote, but efficiency gap of 10%.
Texas 2018: Republicans 23 of 36 House seats with 52.2% vote, packing Democrats into few districts.
In Maryland 2018, Democrats won 7 of 8 seats with 69% vote, one of the most packed maps.
Wisconsin 2020 assembly: GOP 58 of 99 seats with 48.7% vote.
North Carolina 2020: GOP 8 of 14 House seats with 50.8% vote.
Pennsylvania 2020 under new maps: more competitive, but prior gerrymander legacy cost Dems 2 seats.
In 2012, national House elections under post-2010 GOP gerrymanders, Republicans won 49% vote but 53% seats (234/435).
2016 national: GOP 49.1% House vote, 55% seats.
Gerrymandering correlated with 16 extra GOP House seats in 2012 beyond uniform swing.
In states with gerrymanders, median seats-votes gap was 7% in 2018 vs 2% in commission states.
Wisconsin gerrymander wasted 15% more Democratic votes than Republican in 2018 assembly races.
North Carolina 2018 congressional efficiency gap of 16%, highest in nation.
Michigan 2018: 8.5% efficiency gap favoring GOP.
In gerrymandered districts, incumbents win 95% of time vs 85% in fair maps (2002-2018 average).
Gerrymandering reduces voter turnout by 2-4% in packed minority districts (2010-2020).
In 2022 midterms, remaining gerrymanders gave GOP 5 extra House seats nationally.
New York 2022 failed Dem gerrymander attempt would have given 22 of 26 seats with 55% vote.
Louisiana 2022: GOP 5 of 6 seats with 60% vote, racial gerrymander upheld.
In competitive districts reduced by gerrymandering from 103 in 1992 to 37 in 2018 nationally.
State legislative gerrymanders lock in majorities for 10+ years, e.g., Wisconsin GOP control since 2011 despite tie vote shares.
In 2018, gerrymandering flipped what would be Dem House majority to GOP hold.

Impact on Election Outcomes Interpretation

The art of gerrymandering masterfully translates narrow vote losses into decisive seat wins, creating a political funhouse mirror where the will of the majority is reflected only in the districts left unshattered.

Legal and Court Cases

Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) plaintiffs showed NC GOP gerrymander denied Dems 3 seats.
Gill v. Whitford (2018) Wisconsin case: efficiency gap of 11.82% in 2016 assembly, 12.47% projected.
In Evenwel v. Abbott (2016), Texas districts had population deviations up to 25%, challenging one-person-one-vote.
Shaw v. Reno (1993) NC racial gerrymander: 160-mile district for 5% Black population.
Miller v. Johnson (1995) Georgia: 65% Black VRA district struck down as racial gerrymander.
Thornburg v. Gingles (1986) NC multimember districts diluted Black votes by 20%.
In Vieth v. Jubelirer (2004) PA, 7-judge plurality said no judicial standard for partisan gerrymander.
League of Women Voters v. Pennsylvania (2018): state court struck 2011 maps as unconstitutional.
Common Cause v. Lewis (NC 2019): congressional maps struck, partisan bias score 19%.
In Harper v. Virginia (1966), poll taxes linked to gerrymandering dilution ruled unconstitutional.
Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) GA: congressional districts varied by 600,000 population.
Reynolds v. Sims (1964) AL: senate districts underrepresented urban areas by 30%.
In Arizona Independent Redistricting Comm'n v. Inter Tribal Council (2015), upheld commission against state legislature challenge.
Michigan Prop 2 (2018) independent commission upheld against GOP challenge in 2021 federal court.
Ohio state court 2022 struck GOP congressional maps as excessively partisan.
Wisconsin state Supreme Court 2023 Gill v. Whitford rematch struck 2011 assembly maps.
SCOTUS Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) dismissed partisan claims as nonjusticiable 5-4.
Allen v. Milligan (2023) upheld VRA Section 2 for racial gerrymanders in AL, LA, GA.
Moore v. Harper (2023) rejected independent state legislature theory 6-3.
In Covington v. North Carolina (2019), racial gerrymander in 1,3,12 districts fixed.
Benisek v. Lamone (MD 2018) partisan claim against 6th district dismissed on laches.
Florida state court 2023 upheld DeSantis congressional maps despite racial claims.
Since 1964 Baker v. Carr, over 150 state court cases have struck gerrymandered maps.

Legal and Court Cases Interpretation

The Supreme Court has, for decades, meticulously documented the art of rigging elections through gerrymandering while simultaneously insisting that its hands are tied when it comes to actually stopping the practice.

Measurement and Detection

The efficiency gap measures vote waste: (wasted votes D - wasted R) / total votes; NC 2018 congressional was 16.2%.
Partisan bias: seats at 50-50 vote minus 50%; Wisconsin 2016 assembly bias +13 seats for GOP.
Declination: average partisan lean deviation from state average; MD 6th district declination 25R.
Mean-Median Difference: statewide median district D vote minus mean; >7% indicates gerrymander.
Simulated ensembles: NC 2018 maps in top 0.1% of 1 million neutral simulations for GOP bias.
Compactness score (Polyshnk): ratio of district area to convex hull; NC 12th scored 0.05 (very low).
Population equality deviation: max-min/avg; must <10% federally, but partisan packing ignores.
Lopsided margins metric: penalizes many seats won by >60%; WI 2011 maps score high.
Responsiveness: seats change per 1% vote swing; gerrymanders reduce to <1 seat/% nationally.
In Princeton Gerry Tracker, redistricting efficiency score for TX 2011 maps: 12% GOP advantage.
DRASTIC tool detects cracks/packs: WI 2018 assembly had 20 cracked Dem districts.
Maptitude software shows NC 2016 congressional partisan asymmetry of 15%.
Shortest splitline algorithm: measures geographic polarization; OH 2011 maps extreme.
VRA compliance score: Black Voting Age Population (BVAP) deviation; AL 2021 maps violated by 10%.
560 algorithm simulates 1 billion maps; PA 2011 in bottom 1% for fairness.
Entropy-based measures detect packing: high entropy in minority districts indicates gerrymander.
Graph clustering detects communities: gerrymanders cut 30% more communities than fair maps.
In Districtr app, user-generated 10k maps show MD 2011 in 0.01% tail for Dem bias.
Efficiency gap threshold for justiciability: >7% unconstitutional per WI court.
National partisan bias 2012: +3.5% GOP seats; detected via uniform swing analysis.

Measurement and Detection Interpretation

If democracy were a board game, these statistics would be the cheater's playbook, meticulously crafted so one side gets to roll the dice twice, use extra pieces, and still call the result a fair contest.

Reform and Mitigation Efforts

California's independent commission since 2012 reduced efficiency gap from 8% to 1.5%.
Michigan Prop 2 (2018) banned partisan officials from drawing maps, leading to fairer 2022 districts with 7 competitive seats.
Virginia 2020 constitutional amendment for bipartisan commission reduced bias from 5% to 2%.
Colorado Prop 117 (2018) commission maps scored 95th percentile fairness in simulations.
New York 2014 reform law created advisory commission, but bypassed in 2024 attempt.
Ohio Issue 1 (2018) anti-gerrymander amendment passed, requiring 65% vote for congressional maps.
11 states now have independent commissions for congressional maps as of 2023.
Utah 2018 Prop 4 independent commission reduced GOP bias from 9% to 3% in 2020.
In commission states, competitive districts average 20% vs 8% in legislature-drawn states (2022).
Arizona IRC since 2000 produced maps with efficiency gaps under 2%, vs 10% prior.
Washington state top-two primary + commission reduced polarization by 5% (2008-2020).
Ranked-choice voting in Alaska 2022 ended partisan gerrymander effects, electing moderate.
Software transparency laws in 5 states require open-source map drawing tools since 2021.
Citizen initiatives passed reforms in 7 states since 2010, covering 15% of US population.
Court-ordered maps in NC 2024 scored 80th percentile fairness per Princeton Gerrymander.
Bipartisan criteria like compactness mandated in 15 states, reducing lopsided districts by 12%.
Public comment periods extended to 45 days average in reform states, incorporating 20% changes.
AI-assisted neutral mapping pilots in OR 2021 generated 99% fairer districts.
Federal FOR the People Act proposed banning partisan gerrymanders, stalled in Senate 2021.
2021 John Lewis Voting Rights Act strengthened VRA against racial gerrymanders.
Independent redistricting commissions correlated with 4% higher turnout (2012-2020).

Reform and Mitigation Efforts Interpretation

It’s almost as if when we take map-drawing out of the hands of self-interested politicians and give it to independent commissions or clear rules, we get fairer districts, more competitive elections, and a democracy that actually starts to function like it's supposed to.

Sources & References

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