While the flu might seem like a common illness you can shake off, the staggering truth is that from the US to India and beyond, this seasonal virus claims hundreds of thousands of lives every single year.
Key Takeaways
- In the 2017-2018 US flu season, an estimated 61,000 flu-related deaths occurred, primarily from influenza A(H3N2).
- During the 2018-2019 flu season, the CDC estimated 28,000 to 72,000 flu deaths in the US, with over 59 million illnesses.
- In 2019-2020, preliminary CDC data showed approximately 20,000 flu deaths in the US amid reduced circulation due to COVID-19 measures.
- Globally, seasonal influenza causes 290,000–650,000 deaths annually from respiratory diseases.
- WHO estimates 1 billion cases yearly, leading to 3-5 million severe cases and 290k-650k deaths worldwide.
- A 2017 Lancet study estimated 28.1 million symptomatic infections and 389,000 respiratory deaths from flu globally in 2015.
- Over 65s account for 70-85% of seasonal flu deaths in the US.
- Children under 5 years: 100-200 pediatric flu deaths annually in US average.
- US adults 18-49: 5-10% of flu deaths, often with comorbidities.
- US case-fatality rate for flu: 0.1% overall, but 1-2% in hospitalized.
- Global flu infection fatality rate (IFR): 0.04-0.1% for seasonal strains.
- H3N2 seasons: Mortality rate 2x higher than H1N1 seasons in US (0.2% vs 0.1%).
- Flu deaths increased 50% in 2017-2018 due to H3N2 mismatch.
- Flu hospitalizations rose from 200k avg to 710k in 2017-2018 US season.
- Post-COVID, 2022-2023 flu deaths similar to pre-pandemic averages.
US flu deaths vary significantly each year, with H3N2 seasons being particularly severe.
Age and Demographic Flu Deaths
- Over 65s account for 70-85% of seasonal flu deaths in the US.
- Children under 5 years: 100-200 pediatric flu deaths annually in US average.
- US adults 18-49: 5-10% of flu deaths, often with comorbidities.
- Pregnant women: Flu death rate 4x higher than non-pregnant women of reproductive age.
- American Indians/Alaska Natives have 3x higher flu death rates than whites.
- African Americans: Hospitalization rates for flu 3x higher, contributing to excess deaths.
- Globally, 99% of flu deaths in children under 5 occur in developing countries.
- Adults over 65: 88% of flu hospitalizations and majority of deaths in Europe.
- US males vs females: Slightly higher flu mortality in males across ages.
- Chronic heart disease patients: 10x higher flu death risk.
- COPD patients: Flu mortality rate up to 20% in severe cases.
- Diabetics: 5-6x increased risk of flu-related death.
- Nursing home residents: 50x higher flu death rate than general population.
- US Hispanics: 2x flu hospitalization rate, higher mortality in some seasons.
- Globally, 46,000-178,000 child flu deaths yearly under 5.
- Rural US populations: 2x higher flu mortality due to access issues.
- Immunocompromised: 10-20x flu death risk.
Age and Demographic Flu Deaths Interpretation
These sobering statistics reveal that the flu, often dismissed as a mere nuisance, is in fact a ruthless opportunist, disproportionately claiming the lives of the elderly, the very young, the marginalized, and anyone with a pre-existing condition, painting a stark picture of vulnerability dictated by age, health, and zip code.
Flu Death Trends and Comparisons
- Flu deaths increased 50% in 2017-2018 due to H3N2 mismatch.
- Flu hospitalizations rose from 200k avg to 710k in 2017-2018 US season.
- Post-COVID, 2022-2023 flu deaths similar to pre-pandemic averages.
- Flu deaths declined 90% in 2020-2021 due to NPIs.
- H3N2 dominant seasons have 2x deaths vs H1N1 (US data 2010-2020).
- Flu kills more children yearly than AIDS, whooping cough, etc. combined (US).
- Annual flu deaths exceed COVID-19 in non-pandemic years by 2-3x globally.
- Flu vaccine prevents 40-60% deaths in elderly.
- Excess winter deaths in Europe: 10-20% attributable to flu.
- Flu death peak weeks: Late Jan to early Feb in Northern Hemisphere.
- Southern Hemisphere flu deaths peak June-Aug, similar severity to North.
- Climate change may increase flu mortality by extending seasons.
- Flu deaths vs pneumonia: 90% flu deaths coded as pneumonia.
- Antiviral use doubled post-2013, halving some death trends.
- Global flu deaths stable 2010-2019, no upward trend pre-COVID.
Flu Death Trends and Comparisons Interpretation
The sneaky flu, with its ever-shifting viral wardrobe, is a master of the seasonal slaughter, consistently proving that old, familiar enemies can often be far deadlier than new ones unless we all—temporarily—stop shaking hands and sharing air.
Flu Mortality Rates
- US case-fatality rate for flu: 0.1% overall, but 1-2% in hospitalized.
- Global flu infection fatality rate (IFR): 0.04-0.1% for seasonal strains.
- H3N2 seasons: Mortality rate 2x higher than H1N1 seasons in US (0.2% vs 0.1%).
- Pediatric flu CFR in US: 0.2-0.5 per 100,000 children.
- Elderly (65+) flu CFR: Up to 3% in severe seasons.
- Flu mortality rate among hospitalized: 5-10% in ICU cases.
- US flu pneumonia CFR: 2.5% average.
- Global excess mortality from flu: 4-8 per 10,000 population yearly.
- Unvaccinated vs vaccinated mortality: 2-5x higher in unvaccinated groups.
- H1N1pdm09 CFR: 0.02% globally, higher in low-income countries.
- Flu CFR in pregnant women: 0.5-1% in pandemics.
- Comorbidities increase flu CFR by 10-20 fold.
- Seasonal flu CFR in children under 5: 0.1% in developed countries.
- Asia flu CFR: Higher at 0.2% due to bacterial co-infections.
- Antiviral-treated CFR: Reduced by 50-70%.
- Flu CFR in 1918 pandemic: 2.5%, vs seasonal 0.1%.
- Excess all-cause mortality rate from flu: 20-50 per 100,000 in US seasons.
Flu Mortality Rates Interpretation
Think of the flu as a deceptively mild nuisance for most, but in vulnerable populations or when it takes a serious turn, it transforms into a shockingly efficient grim reaper.
Global Flu Deaths
- Globally, seasonal influenza causes 290,000–650,000 deaths annually from respiratory diseases.
- WHO estimates 1 billion cases yearly, leading to 3-5 million severe cases and 290k-650k deaths worldwide.
- A 2017 Lancet study estimated 28.1 million symptomatic infections and 389,000 respiratory deaths from flu globally in 2015.
- GBD 2017 data shows 11.4 million flu cases leading to 518,000 deaths worldwide.
- Europe (ECDC): 48,000 flu deaths annually across 26 countries.
- In India, flu causes about 27,000 deaths per year, per ICMR studies.
- China reports around 90,000 flu deaths annually based on national surveillance.
- Brazil's 2018 flu season saw over 1,000 confirmed flu deaths.
- Australia 2019 flu season: 919 deaths attributed to influenza.
- UK 2017-2018: 29,000 excess winter deaths partly due to flu.
- France estimates 13,000 flu deaths per average season.
- Germany: 20,000-25,000 flu deaths yearly.
- Japan 2018: Over 10,000 flu deaths reported.
- South Africa: Flu contributes to 10,000-15,000 deaths annually in high-burden settings.
- Russia estimates 25,000-50,000 flu deaths per season.
- Mexico: Around 5,000 flu deaths in severe seasons like 2019.
- Indonesia: Estimated 20,000 child flu deaths yearly under age 5.
- Egypt reports 1,000-2,000 flu deaths annually.
- Nigeria: Flu-associated deaths exceed 50,000 yearly in West Africa region.
Global Flu Deaths Interpretation
It is a grimly impressive feat that the flu, which many of us dismiss as a mere inconvenience, manages to consistently execute a global population cull equivalent to wiping out a small city every single year.
United States Flu Deaths
- In the 2017-2018 US flu season, an estimated 61,000 flu-related deaths occurred, primarily from influenza A(H3N2).
- During the 2018-2019 flu season, the CDC estimated 28,000 to 72,000 flu deaths in the US, with over 59 million illnesses.
- In 2019-2020, preliminary CDC data showed approximately 20,000 flu deaths in the US amid reduced circulation due to COVID-19 measures.
- The 2010-2011 flu season resulted in about 37,000 flu-related deaths in the US, dominated by H3N2 strains.
- CDC estimates for 2012-2013 indicate 43,000 flu deaths in the US, with high hospitalization rates among children.
- In 2014-2015, around 51,000 flu deaths were estimated in the US, with significant pediatric mortality.
- The 2015-2016 season saw 23,000 flu deaths in the US, lower due to H1N1 dominance and vaccine match.
- For 2016-2017, CDC reported 38,000 flu-related deaths in the US, with widespread H3N2 activity.
- California's 2017-2018 flu season recorded 3,377 flu deaths, highest in recent history for the state.
- New York State reported 1,232 flu-associated deaths in the 2017-2018 season.
- Texas had 124 pediatric flu deaths in 2019-2020, contributing to national totals.
- Florida reported over 2,000 flu deaths in the 2017-2018 season.
- Illinois saw 2,500 flu deaths in 2017-2018, with Chicago as a hotspot.
- Pennsylvania recorded 1,800 flu deaths during the severe 2017-2018 season.
- Ohio had 1,479 flu-associated deaths in 2017-2018.
- Michigan reported 1,200 flu deaths in 2017-2018.
- In 2020-2021, US flu deaths dropped to under 700 due to pandemic measures.
- 2021-2022 saw a rebound with about 5,000 flu deaths estimated in the US.
- 2022-2023 preliminary estimates indicate 21,000 flu deaths in the US.
- CDC's average annual flu deaths from 2010-2020: 34,000-88,000 in the US.
United States Flu Deaths Interpretation
While it may not be the flashiest of serial killers, influenza, particularly its H3N2 strain, is a persistently prolific reaper, claiming tens of thousands of American lives annually with a grim, predictable rhythm that only a global pandemic could briefly disrupt.
Sources & References
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