While many Americans cast a ballot for president, the true decider is a 236-year-old system where your vote carries radically different weight depending on your zip code, a reality born from the Electoral College, first established in Article II of the U.S. Constitution on September 17, 1787.
Key Takeaways
- The Electoral College was first established in Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution, ratified on September 17, 1787, providing each state electors equal to its total congressional representation.
- The original purpose of the Electoral College included balancing power between populous and smaller states while avoiding direct popular election due to fears of mob rule, as debated in Federalist Paper No. 68 by Alexander Hamilton.
- In the first presidential election of 1788-89, 69 electors participated, unanimously electing George Washington with all votes.
- In 2024 apportionment based on 2020 Census, California holds 54 electoral votes, the highest of any state.
- Texas has 40 electoral votes in the 2024 cycle, reflecting its population growth from the 2020 Census.
- Florida's electoral votes increased to 30 for 2024 due to gaining 1 seat in House apportionment post-2020 Census.
- In 2020, Joe Biden won with 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 232.
- Donald Trump secured 304 electoral votes in the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton's 227.
- Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes in 2012 over Mitt Romney's 206.
- The popular vote loser has won the Electoral College 5 times: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016.
- In 2000, Al Gore won the national popular vote by 543,895 votes but lost the Electoral College 271-266.
- Donald Trump in 2016 won the presidency with 304 EC votes despite losing popular vote by 2.1 million to Hillary Clinton.
- The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has been enacted by 17 states and D.C., totaling 209 EC votes as of 2024.
- A 2020 Gallup poll showed 61% of Americans support abolishing the Electoral College for direct popular vote.
- The House passed a direct popular vote amendment in 1969 (H.J.Res. 681) by 338-70, but it failed in Senate.
The blog post outlines the Electoral College's historical evolution and its ongoing impacts on modern American politics.
Current Allocation
- In 2024 apportionment based on 2020 Census, California holds 54 electoral votes, the highest of any state.
- Texas has 40 electoral votes in the 2024 cycle, reflecting its population growth from the 2020 Census.
- Florida's electoral votes increased to 30 for 2024 due to gaining 1 seat in House apportionment post-2020 Census.
- New York has 28 electoral votes in 2024, down from 29 after losing one House seat in 2020 reapportionment.
- Illinois holds 19 electoral votes for 2024, decreased by one from prior cycle due to population shifts.
- Ohio has 17 electoral votes in 2024, down two from 2020 after losing House seats in apportionment.
- Pennsylvania maintains 19 electoral votes for 2024 despite minor population changes in 2020 Census.
- Georgia gained one electoral vote to 16 for 2024 following population increase noted in 2020 Census data.
- Michigan lost one electoral vote to 15 for 2024 after 2020 Census showed slower population growth.
- North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in 2024, up one from gaining a House seat post-2020 Census.
Current Allocation Interpretation
The census giveth and the census taketh away, leaving California as the electoral king with 54 votes while New York, Illinois, and Ohio mourn their lost political power as the national center of gravity continues its southern and western shuffle.
Historical Development
- The Electoral College was first established in Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution, ratified on September 17, 1787, providing each state electors equal to its total congressional representation.
- The original purpose of the Electoral College included balancing power between populous and smaller states while avoiding direct popular election due to fears of mob rule, as debated in Federalist Paper No. 68 by Alexander Hamilton.
- In the first presidential election of 1788-89, 69 electors participated, unanimously electing George Washington with all votes.
- The 12th Amendment, ratified on June 15, 1804, separated the presidential and vice-presidential ballots to prevent future ties like in 1800.
- From 1804 to 1820, state legislatures in some states chose electors instead of popular vote, with South Carolina doing so until 1868.
- The Electoral College has been used in all 59 presidential elections held as of 2020, with a total of 538 electors since 1964.
- In 1832, all states except South Carolina used popular vote to choose electors, marking a shift to democratic selection.
- The 23rd Amendment, ratified in 1961, granted Washington D.C. three electoral votes starting in 1964.
- During Reconstruction, Congress passed laws ensuring electors be chosen by popular vote, fully implemented by 1868.
- The winner-take-all rule for electors was adopted by states starting with Virginia in 1788, now used by 48 states.
- In 1789, the first Congress set elector meetings for first Wednesday in January, still influential today.
- Federalist Paper No. 39 by Madison described EC as a republican compromise between democracy and aristocracy.
- The 1800 election tie between Jefferson and Burr led to 36 House ballots to decide the presidency.
- By 1836, all states used popular vote except South Carolina, fully by 1860.
- The 14th Amendment's apportionment clause indirectly affects EC votes via House seats.
- Colorado briefly chose electors by referendum in 1876 before switching back.
- Faithless electors have occurred 167 times historically, but never flipped an election.
- The 1960 election saw 14 unpledged Southern electors vote against Kennedy.
- Washington D.C.'s first EC votes went to Lyndon Johnson in 1964 with 3 votes.
Historical Development Interpretation
Conceived as a noble firewall against tyranny of the majority, the Electoral College’s history reveals a 233-year-old machine that has been persistently jury-rigged with amendments, state laws, and political hardball, yet somehow still coughs out a president every four years without ever being fully trusted.
Past Election Results
- In 2020, Joe Biden won with 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 232.
- Donald Trump secured 304 electoral votes in the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton's 227.
- Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes in 2012 over Mitt Romney's 206.
- George W. Bush defeated John Kerry 286 to 251 in electoral votes in 2004.
- In 2000, George W. Bush won 271 electoral votes to Al Gore's 266, the closest margin ever.
- Bill Clinton won 379 electoral votes against Bob Dole's 159 in 1996.
- In 1992, Bill Clinton took 370 electoral votes over George H.W. Bush's 168.
- George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral votes to Michael Dukakis's 111 in 1988.
- Ronald Reagan swept 525 electoral votes against Walter Mondale's 13 in 1984.
- Jimmy Carter won 297 electoral votes to Gerald Ford's 240 in the disputed 1976 election.
- Reagan won 49 states in 1984, securing 525 EC votes, largest landslide.
- In 1980, Reagan got 489 EC votes to Carter's 49.
- Nixon won 301 EC votes in 1972 over McGovern's 17.
- Nixon's 1968 victory was 301 to Humphrey's 191 and Wallace's 46 (faithless).
- Kennedy won 303 EC votes in 1960 against Nixon's 219, closest popular margin.
- Eisenhower took 442 EC votes in 1956 over Stevenson's 73.
- Truman won 303 EC votes in 1948 upset over Dewey's 189.
- Roosevelt won all but 2 states in 1936 with 523 EC votes.
Past Election Results Interpretation
The Electoral College has a way of turning decisive popular victories into political landslides and narrow squeakers into historic upsets, often with a dash of irony, like the guy who lost the popular vote but won the presidency later losing to the guy who won both.
Popular Vote Discrepancies
- The popular vote loser has won the Electoral College 5 times: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016.
- In 2000, Al Gore won the national popular vote by 543,895 votes but lost the Electoral College 271-266.
- Donald Trump in 2016 won the presidency with 304 EC votes despite losing popular vote by 2.1 million to Hillary Clinton.
- In 1888, Benjamin Harrison won 233 EC votes while Grover Cleveland had 168 but a popular vote plurality of 0.8%.
- Rutherford B. Hayes won 185 EC votes in 1876 against Samuel Tilden's 184, despite trailing popular vote by 3%.
- John Quincy Adams won 1824 with 84 EC votes (32.2%) in a contingent election, trailing Andrew Jackson's popular support.
- Since 1992, the Electoral College winner has matched the popular vote winner in 4 out of 7 elections (57%).
- In swing states, a candidate needs only 50.1% of the vote for all electors, amplifying margins nationally.
- One Wyoming voter’s influence in 2020 was 3.6 times greater than a California voter due to EC allocation.
- In 1824, no candidate reached 131 majority, leading to House contingent election won by Adams.
- 1876 saw 20 disputed EC votes resolved by special commission favoring Hayes.
- Since 1900, popular vote and EC have diverged 5 times out of 31 elections (16%).
- A shift of 77,000 votes in 3 states would have flipped 2016 from Trump to Clinton.
- Voters in small states like Vermont have 3.3 times more EC power per capita than in Texas.
Popular Vote Discrepancies Interpretation
America's history reveals a stubborn quirk in its democratic engine: the Electoral College, designed to blend diverse voices, occasionally rewards the driver who came in second, proving that in this grand race, the map sometimes matters more than the mileage.
Reform Proposals
- The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has been enacted by 17 states and D.C., totaling 209 EC votes as of 2024.
- A 2020 Gallup poll showed 61% of Americans support abolishing the Electoral College for direct popular vote.
- The House passed a direct popular vote amendment in 1969 (H.J.Res. 681) by 338-70, but it failed in Senate.
- Proportional allocation of electors is used in Maine and Nebraska since 1969 and 1992, respectively.
- FairVote proposes the National Popular Vote plan, requiring states with 270 EC votes to award to popular winner.
- In 1970, a constitutional amendment for automatic EC vote by plurality failed in Senate 35-54.
- 80% of Democrats support EC abolition per 2023 Pew survey, vs. 23% of Republicans.
- The Congressional Research Service notes over 700 amendment proposals to change EC since 1800.
- Maine's district system awarded its 2 statewide + 2 district EC votes split in 2012 and 2020 elections.
- National Popular Vote bill passed legislatures totaling 196 EC votes before 2020.
- 2022 YouGov poll: 63% overall favor popular vote over EC.
- Every state except 2 uses winner-take-all, distorting vote value by up to 4:1.
- In 1950, Congress proposed district system but failed ratification by 7 states.
- Ranked-choice voting could pair with EC reforms, supported by 55% in 2023 survey.
- 40 proposals for EC elimination introduced in Congress since 2000.
- Nebraska's 1992 law split 3 district + 2 statewide votes, used in every election since.
Reform Proposals Interpretation
Despite over 700 attempts to reform or replace it since 1800, the Electoral College endures like a political algorithm stuck in a boot-up loop, continuously rebooting the national debate while a growing majority of Americans simply wish to force-quit and install a direct popular vote system.
State Allocations
- As of 2024, California has 54 electoral votes, determined by 52 House seats + 2 Senators post-2020 Census.
- Texas allocates 40 electoral votes for 2024: 38 House + 2 Senators, up from 38 in 2020.
- Florida's 30 EC votes in 2024 reflect 28 House members + 2 Senators after gaining population.
- New York's 28 EC votes decreased to 26 House + 2 Senators due to 2020 Census migration losses.
- Illinois has 19 EC votes: 17 House + 2 Senators, down one House seat in recent apportionment.
- Pennsylvania's 19 EC votes: 17 House + 2 Senators, stable despite Rust Belt population trends.
- Ohio allocates 17 EC votes for 2024: 15 House + 2 Senators, lost two seats post-2020 Census.
- Georgia's 16 EC votes: 14 House + 2 Senators, gained one from Southern population shift.
- North Carolina has 16 EC votes: 14 House + 2 Senators, up due to growth in 2020 Census.
- Michigan's 15 EC votes: 13 House + 2 Senators, down one from prior cycle.
- Wyoming has 3 electoral votes for 2024: 1 House + 2 Senators, smallest population state.
- Alaska allocates 3 EC votes: 1 House + 2 Senators, unchanged for decades.
- Washington's 12 EC votes: 10 House + 2 Senators, grown with tech boom.
- Minnesota has 10 EC votes: 8 House + 2 Senators, stable allocation.
- Wisconsin's 10 EC votes: 8 House + 2 Senators, key battleground.
- Arizona has 11 EC votes for 2024: 9 House + 2 Senators, up one recently.
- Nevada's 6 EC votes: 4 House + 2 Senators, pivotal swing state.
- Colorado allocates 10 EC votes: 8 House + 2 Senators post-2020 growth.
State Allocations Interpretation
The shifting electoral vote map reveals a nation where political power is constantly being repacked and shipped, following a moving van of migration from colder, older industrial states to the sun-drenched frontiers of the South and West.
Sources & References
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