Key Takeaways
- The average cost to bring a new drug to market is approximately $2.6 billion, including failure rates.
- Global pharmaceutical R&D spending reached $238 billion in 2022.
- R&D expenditure by top 20 pharma companies was $162 billion in 2021.
- Phase I trials take average 2.1 years to complete.
- Phase II trials average 2.5 years duration.
- Phase III trials last average 3.2 years.
- FDA approved 37 new drugs in 2022.
- EMA approved 39 new medicines in 2022.
- Average FDA review time for standard drugs is 10 months.
- Global pharma market size was $1.48 trillion in 2022.
- US pharma market share 45% of global at $675 billion in 2022.
- Biologics market projected to $500 billion by 2025.
- mRNA therapeutics market to $127 billion by 2030.
- Cell and gene therapy approvals doubled since 2017.
- AI drug discovery investments $20 billion in 2022.
Drug development is astronomically expensive with high failure rates despite massive global investment.
Clinical Trials;,
- Phase I trials take average 2.1 years to complete.
- Phase II trials average 2.5 years duration.
- Phase III trials last average 3.2 years.
- Overall clinical trial timeline is 6-7 years from Phase I to approval.
- 85% of experimental drugs fail in clinical trials.
- Phase I success rate to Phase II is 63%.
- Phase II to Phase III success rate is 31%.
- Phase III to approval success rate is 58%.
- Over 1 million clinical trials registered globally since 2000.
- US hosts 45% of global clinical trials.
- Average Phase III trial enrolls 300-3000 patients.
- Oncology trials have 3.4% success rate from Phase I to approval.
- Infectious disease trials success rate 20.6%.
- Number of Phase I starts increased 8% YoY in 2022.
- Adaptive trial designs used in 20% of Phase II/III trials in 2022.
- Patient recruitment takes 30% of total trial time.
- Decentralized trials grew 5x since 2020.
- AI used in 25% of trial design processes in 2023.
- Average trial site activation time is 3-6 months.
- 70% of trials are multinational.
- Rare disease trials enroll median 20 patients.
- Diversity in trials: 75% White, 8% Black participants in US.
- Cost of Phase III trial averages $20-50 million.
- Real-world evidence used in 15% of trials post-2020.
- Basket/umbrella trials increased 300% since 2015.
- Pediatric trials represent 5% of total trials.
- Vaccine trials success rate 33.4% Phase I to approval.
Clinical Trials;, Interpretation
Innovation Trends
- Protein degraders (PROTACs) pipeline: 100+ candidates.
Innovation Trends Interpretation
Innovation Trends;,
- mRNA therapeutics market to $127 billion by 2030.
- Cell and gene therapy approvals doubled since 2017.
- AI drug discovery investments $20 billion in 2022.
- CRISPR gene editing trials: 50+ active in 2023.
- Precision medicine market $110 billion in 2022.
- CAR-T therapies approved: 6 by FDA as of 2023.
- Organoid models used in 15% of preclinical studies 2023.
- Digital twins in trials piloted by 20 pharma companies.
- RNA interference (RNAi) drugs approved: 5 since 2018.
- Nanotechnology drug delivery systems in 10% new approvals.
- Microbiome therapeutics trials: 200+ ongoing.
- Quantum computing pilots for drug discovery by 5 big pharma.
- Wearables data in trials increased 400% post-COVID.
Innovation Trends;, Interpretation
Market Economics;,
- Global pharma market size was $1.48 trillion in 2022.
- US pharma market share 45% of global at $675 billion in 2022.
- Biologics market projected to $500 billion by 2025.
- Oncology drugs generated $203 billion revenue in 2022.
- Top 10 pharma companies revenue $400 billion in 2022.
- Pfizer revenue $100.3 billion in 2022 driven by COVID vaccines.
- Roche sales CHF 63.3 billion in 2022.
- J&J pharma sales $52.1 billion in 2022.
- Merck revenue $59.3 billion in 2022.
- Novartis sales $45.4 billion in 2022.
- AbbVie revenue $58.1 billion in 2022.
- AstraZeneca sales $45.8 billion in 2022.
- Sanofi revenue €43.4 billion in 2022.
- GSK sales £29.3 billion in 2022.
- Bristol Myers Squibb revenue $46.2 billion in 2022.
- Eli Lilly sales $28.5 billion in 2022.
- Gilead revenue $27.1 billion in 2022.
- Amgen sales $26.3 billion in 2022.
- Generics market $100 billion in US 2022.
- Biosimilars market $20 billion globally in 2022.
Market Economics;, Interpretation
R&D Costs;,
- The average cost to bring a new drug to market is approximately $2.6 billion, including failure rates.
- Global pharmaceutical R&D spending reached $238 billion in 2022.
- R&D expenditure by top 20 pharma companies was $162 billion in 2021.
- Probability of success from Phase I to approval is 8.4% for all drugs.
- Cost per approved drug has risen to $1.3 billion out-of-pocket since 2010.
- Biopharma R&D investment hit $147 billion in 2020.
- Average R&D intensity (R&D/sales) for pharma is 19-20%.
- US biopharma firms invested $102 billion in R&D in 2021.
- Capitalized cost of a new drug development is $2,794 million.
- R&D spending grew 5.5% annually from 2017-2022.
- Pfizer's R&D spend was $11.4 billion in 2022.
- Roche invested CHF 13.4 billion in R&D in 2022.
- Novartis R&D budget was $10.7 billion in 2022.
- Merck & Co. spent $12.2 billion on R&D in 2022.
- J&J R&D expenditure was $14.9 billion in 2022.
- AstraZeneca R&D spend reached $8.1 billion in 2022.
- Sanofi invested €6.3 billion in R&D in 2022.
- GSK R&D budget was £5.0 billion in 2022.
- Bristol Myers Squibb spent $9.0 billion on R&D in 2022.
- Eli Lilly R&D investment was $7.6 billion in 2022.
- AbbVie R&D spend totaled $6.5 billion in 2022.
- Gilead Sciences invested $5.0 billion in R&D in 2022.
- Amgen R&D expenditure was $4.5 billion in 2022.
- Biogen spent $3.0 billion on R&D in 2022.
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals R&D was $4.2 billion in 2022.
- Moderna invested $4.9 billion in R&D in 2022.
- BioNTech R&D spend was €2.0 billion in 2022.
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals R&D was $2.4 billion in 2022.
- Incyte Corporation invested $900 million in R&D 2022.
- Exelixis R&D spend was $500 million in 2022.
R&D Costs;, Interpretation
Regulatory Approvals;,
- FDA approved 37 new drugs in 2022.
- EMA approved 39 new medicines in 2022.
- Average FDA review time for standard drugs is 10 months.
- Priority review shortens FDA time to 6 months.
- 55 novel drugs approved by FDA in 2021.
- Breakthrough Therapy designation granted to 98 drugs since 2012.
- Orphan Drug Designation for 600+ products annually.
- Accelerated Approval pathway used for 70% oncology drugs.
- FDA issued 50 complete response letters in 2022.
- PMDA Japan approved 40 new drugs in 2022.
- Health Canada approved 45 new drugs in 2022.
- TGA Australia approved 30 innovative medicines in 2022.
- 20% of approvals via Real-Time Oncology Review in 2022.
- RMAT designation for 50+ cell/gene therapies since 2017.
- FDA warning letters to pharma firms: 15 in 2022.
- Post-approval changes require prior approval for 40% of submissions.
- EU conditional marketing authorization for 10 drugs in 2022.
- Fast Track designation for 150+ programs annually.
- ANDA approvals: 700+ generics by FDA in 2022.
- Biosimilar approvals reached 40 by FDA as of 2023.
- Global harmonization via ICH guidelines adopted by 7 regions.
- FDA user fee for NDA is $3.1 million in FY2023.
Regulatory Approvals;, Interpretation
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