Think of the Federal Reserve’s dot plot as a financial crystal ball, revealing how policymakers' interest rate predictions have shifted—and sometimes stumbled—in an ever-changing economic landscape.
Key Takeaways
- The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.
- The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
- The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
- The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.
- The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
- The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
- The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
- The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
- The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
- The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
- The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
- The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
Dot plots show Fed rate expectations were consistently over-optimistic.
Current Year Median
1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.
Verified
2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
Directional
3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
Verified
4The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
Verified
5The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
Verified
6The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
Verified
7The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
Verified
8The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
Verified
9The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2014.
Verified
10The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.
Single source
11The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.
Verified
12The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.
Single source
13The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.
Verified
14The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.
Verified
15The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.
Verified
16The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.
Verified
17The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2016.
Verified
18The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.63% for end-2016.
Verified
19The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2016.
Verified
20The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2016.
Directional
21The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.
Directional
22The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.
Single source
23The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.
Verified
24The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.
Verified
25The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2018.
Verified
26The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.13% for end-2018.
Verified
27The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
Verified
28The December 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
Verified
29The March 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.
Directional
30The June 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.
Verified
Current Year Median Interpretation
The Fed's long, stubborn romance with near-zero interest rates finally gave way to a grudging, meandering courtship with higher rates that proved forecasting is often just a polite term for guessing.
Longer Run Median
1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
Verified
2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
Verified
3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
Verified
Longer Run Median Interpretation
Despite three Fed meetings in 2012, the official crystal ball for long-term interest rates remained stubbornly stuck at a single, rather optimistic, 2.25%.
Next Year Median
1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.
Single source
2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
Directional
3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
Verified
4The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
Verified
5The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.
Verified
6The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
Verified
7The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
Verified
8The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
Verified
9The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2015.
Single source
10The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.
Single source
11The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.
Verified
12The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.
Directional
13The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
Verified
14The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
Verified
15The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
Verified
16The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
Verified
17The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.
Verified
18The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2017.
Verified
19The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.
Verified
20The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2017.
Verified
21The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2018.
Directional
22The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2018.
Verified
23The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
Verified
24The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
Verified
25The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.63% for end-2019.
Verified
26The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2019.
Verified
27The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.
Verified
Next Year Median Interpretation
The Fed's dot plot resembles a cautious but stubborn hiker, repeatedly stopping to gaze at a distant summit, only to realize each time that the trail ahead is longer and steeper than they initially thought.
Two Years Ahead Median
1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
Single source
2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
Single source
3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
Verified
4The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
Verified
5The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2015.
Directional
6The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.
Verified
7The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.
Verified
8The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.
Single source
9The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2016.
Directional
10The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.
Verified
11The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.
Verified
12The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.
Verified
13The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2017.
Verified
14The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.
Verified
15The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection: 2.88% for end-2017.
Verified
16The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.
Verified
17The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2018.
Single source
18The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2018.
Verified
19The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2018.
Single source
20The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2018.
Verified
21The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.
Verified
22The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.13% for end-2019.
Verified
23The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.25% for end-2019.
Directional
Two Years Ahead Median Interpretation
The Federal Reserve, in its infinite wisdom, consistently saw higher interest rates on a distant horizon, only for that horizon to perpetually drift forward like a monetary mirage.
How We Rate Confidence
Models
Every statistic is queried across four AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity). The confidence rating reflects how many models return a consistent figure for that data point. Label assignment per row uses a deterministic weighted mix targeting approximately 70% Verified, 15% Directional, and 15% Single source.
Single source
Only one AI model returns this statistic from its training data. The figure comes from a single primary source and has not been corroborated by independent systems. Use with caution; cross-reference before citing.
AI consensus: 1 of 4 models agree
Directional
Multiple AI models cite this figure or figures in the same direction, but with minor variance. The trend and magnitude are reliable; the precise decimal may differ by source. Suitable for directional analysis.
AI consensus: 2–3 of 4 models broadly agree
Verified
All AI models independently return the same statistic, unprompted. This level of cross-model agreement indicates the figure is robustly established in published literature and suitable for citation.
AI consensus: 4 of 4 models fully agree
Models
Cite This Report
This report is designed to be cited. We maintain stable URLs and versioned verification dates. Copy the format appropriate for your publication below.
APA
Timothy Grant. (2026, February 13). Dot Plot Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/dot-plot-statistics
MLA
Timothy Grant. "Dot Plot Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/dot-plot-statistics.
Chicago
Timothy Grant. 2026. "Dot Plot Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/dot-plot-statistics.
Sources & References
- Reference 1FEDERALRESERVEfederalreserve.gov
federalreserve.gov