GITNUXREPORT 2026

Dot Plot Statistics

Dot plots show Fed rate expectations were consistently over-optimistic.

Rajesh Patel

Rajesh Patel

Team Lead & Senior Researcher with over 15 years of experience in market research and data analytics.

First published: Feb 13, 2026

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Key Statistics

Statistic 1

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.

Statistic 2

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Statistic 3

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Statistic 4

The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Statistic 5

The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 6

The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 7

The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 8

The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 9

The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2014.

Statistic 10

The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.

Statistic 11

The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.

Statistic 12

The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.

Statistic 13

The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.

Statistic 14

The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.

Statistic 15

The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.

Statistic 16

The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.

Statistic 17

The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2016.

Statistic 18

The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.63% for end-2016.

Statistic 19

The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2016.

Statistic 20

The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2016.

Statistic 21

The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.

Statistic 22

The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.

Statistic 23

The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.

Statistic 24

The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 25

The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2018.

Statistic 26

The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.13% for end-2018.

Statistic 27

The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 28

The December 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 29

The March 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.

Statistic 30

The June 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.

Statistic 31

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Statistic 32

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Statistic 33

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Statistic 34

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.

Statistic 35

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Statistic 36

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Statistic 37

The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Statistic 38

The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.

Statistic 39

The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 40

The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 41

The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 42

The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2015.

Statistic 43

The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Statistic 44

The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Statistic 45

The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Statistic 46

The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 47

The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 48

The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 49

The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 50

The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.

Statistic 51

The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2017.

Statistic 52

The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 53

The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2017.

Statistic 54

The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2018.

Statistic 55

The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2018.

Statistic 56

The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 57

The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 58

The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.63% for end-2019.

Statistic 59

The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2019.

Statistic 60

The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.

Statistic 61

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 62

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Statistic 63

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Statistic 64

The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Statistic 65

The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2015.

Statistic 66

The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Statistic 67

The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Statistic 68

The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Statistic 69

The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 70

The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Statistic 71

The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Statistic 72

The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Statistic 73

The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2017.

Statistic 74

The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 75

The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection: 2.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 76

The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 77

The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2018.

Statistic 78

The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2018.

Statistic 79

The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2018.

Statistic 80

The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2018.

Statistic 81

The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.

Statistic 82

The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.13% for end-2019.

Statistic 83

The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.25% for end-2019.

Sources
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Think of the Federal Reserve’s dot plot as a financial crystal ball, revealing how policymakers' interest rate predictions have shifted—and sometimes stumbled—in an ever-changing economic landscape.

Key Takeaways

  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Dot plots show Fed rate expectations were consistently over-optimistic.

Current Year Median

  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
  • The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
  • The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
  • The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
  • The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
  • The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.
  • The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2014.
  • The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.
  • The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.
  • The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.
  • The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.
  • The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.
  • The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.
  • The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.
  • The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2016.
  • The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.63% for end-2016.
  • The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2016.
  • The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2016.
  • The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.
  • The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.
  • The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.
  • The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.
  • The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2018.
  • The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.13% for end-2018.
  • The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
  • The December 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
  • The March 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.
  • The June 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.

Current Year Median Interpretation

The Fed's long, stubborn romance with near-zero interest rates finally gave way to a grudging, meandering courtship with higher rates that proved forecasting is often just a polite term for guessing.

Longer Run Median

  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Longer Run Median Interpretation

Despite three Fed meetings in 2012, the official crystal ball for long-term interest rates remained stubbornly stuck at a single, rather optimistic, 2.25%.

Next Year Median

  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
  • The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
  • The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.
  • The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
  • The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
  • The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
  • The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2015.
  • The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.
  • The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.
  • The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.
  • The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
  • The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
  • The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
  • The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.
  • The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.
  • The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2017.
  • The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.
  • The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2017.
  • The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2018.
  • The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2018.
  • The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
  • The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.
  • The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.63% for end-2019.
  • The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2019.
  • The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.

Next Year Median Interpretation

The Fed's dot plot resembles a cautious but stubborn hiker, repeatedly stopping to gaze at a distant summit, only to realize each time that the trail ahead is longer and steeper than they initially thought.

Two Years Ahead Median

  • The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
  • The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
  • The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
  • The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
  • The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2015.
  • The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.
  • The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.
  • The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.
  • The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2016.
  • The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.
  • The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.
  • The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.
  • The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2017.
  • The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.
  • The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection: 2.88% for end-2017.
  • The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.
  • The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2018.
  • The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2018.
  • The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2018.
  • The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2018.
  • The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.
  • The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.13% for end-2019.
  • The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.25% for end-2019.

Two Years Ahead Median Interpretation

The Federal Reserve, in its infinite wisdom, consistently saw higher interest rates on a distant horizon, only for that horizon to perpetually drift forward like a monetary mirage.