GITNUXREPORT 2026

Dot Plot Statistics

Dot plots show Fed rate expectations were consistently over-optimistic.

Written by Timothy Grant·Edited by Stefan Wendt·Fact-checked by Katherine Brennan

Published Feb 13, 2026·Last verified Feb 13, 2026·Next review: Aug 2026

How We Build This Report

Primary Source Collection

Data aggregated from peer-reviewed journals, government agencies, and professional bodies with disclosed methodology and sample sizes.

Editorial Curation

Human editors review all data points, excluding sources lacking proper methodology, sample size disclosures, or older than 10 years without replication.

AI-Powered Verification

Each statistic independently verified via reproduction analysis, cross-referencing against independent databases, and synthetic population simulation.

Human Cross-Check

Final human editorial review of all AI-verified statistics. Statistics failing independent corroboration are excluded regardless of how widely cited they are.

Statistics that could not be independently verified are excluded regardless of how widely cited they are elsewhere.

Our process →

Statistic 1

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.

Statistic 2

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Statistic 3

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Statistic 4

The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Statistic 5

The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 6

The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 7

The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 8

The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Statistic 9

The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2014.

Statistic 10

The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.

Statistic 11

The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.

Statistic 12

The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.

Statistic 13

The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.

Statistic 14

The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.

Statistic 15

The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.

Statistic 16

The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.

Statistic 17

The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2016.

Statistic 18

The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.63% for end-2016.

Statistic 19

The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2016.

Statistic 20

The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2016.

Statistic 21

The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.

Statistic 22

The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.

Statistic 23

The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.

Statistic 24

The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 25

The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2018.

Statistic 26

The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.13% for end-2018.

Statistic 27

The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 28

The December 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 29

The March 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.

Statistic 30

The June 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.

Statistic 31

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Statistic 32

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Statistic 33

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Statistic 34

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.

Statistic 35

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Statistic 36

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Statistic 37

The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Statistic 38

The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.

Statistic 39

The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 40

The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 41

The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 42

The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2015.

Statistic 43

The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Statistic 44

The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Statistic 45

The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Statistic 46

The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 47

The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 48

The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 49

The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 50

The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.

Statistic 51

The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2017.

Statistic 52

The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 53

The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2017.

Statistic 54

The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2018.

Statistic 55

The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2018.

Statistic 56

The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 57

The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Statistic 58

The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.63% for end-2019.

Statistic 59

The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2019.

Statistic 60

The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.

Statistic 61

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Statistic 62

The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Statistic 63

The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Statistic 64

The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Statistic 65

The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2015.

Statistic 66

The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Statistic 67

The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Statistic 68

The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Statistic 69

The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2016.

Statistic 70

The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Statistic 71

The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Statistic 72

The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Statistic 73

The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2017.

Statistic 74

The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 75

The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection: 2.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 76

The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.

Statistic 77

The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2018.

Statistic 78

The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2018.

Statistic 79

The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2018.

Statistic 80

The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2018.

Statistic 81

The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.

Statistic 82

The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.13% for end-2019.

Statistic 83

The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.25% for end-2019.

1/83

Sources

Trusted by 500+ publications

+497

Think of the Federal Reserve’s dot plot as a financial crystal ball, revealing how policymakers' interest rate predictions have shifted—and sometimes stumbled—in an ever-changing economic landscape.

Key Takeaways

The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.
The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.
The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.
The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.
The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.
The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.
The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.
The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Dot plots show Fed rate expectations were consistently over-optimistic.

Current Year Median

1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.75% for end-2012.

Verified

2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Verified

3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Verified

4The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2012.

Directional

5The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Single source

6The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Verified

7The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Verified

8The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2013.

Verified

9The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2014.

Directional

10The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.

Single source

11The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.

Verified

12The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2014.

Verified

13The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.

Verified

14The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2015.

Directional

15The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.

Single source

16The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2015.

Verified

17The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.38% for end-2016.

Verified

18The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.63% for end-2016.

Verified

19The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 0.88% for end-2016.

Directional

20The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2016.

Single source

21The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.

Verified

22The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.

Verified

23The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.63% for end-2017.

Verified

24The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.

Directional

25The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2018.

Single source

26The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.13% for end-2018.

Verified

27The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Verified

28The December 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Verified

29The March 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.

Directional

30The June 2019 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2019.

Single source

Current Year Median Interpretation

The Fed's long, stubborn romance with near-zero interest rates finally gave way to a grudging, meandering courtship with higher rates that proved forecasting is often just a polite term for guessing.

Longer Run Median

1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Verified

2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Verified

3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for longer-run.

Verified

Longer Run Median Interpretation

Despite three Fed meetings in 2012, the official crystal ball for long-term interest rates remained stubbornly stuck at a single, rather optimistic, 2.25%.

Next Year Median

1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.13% for end-2013.

Verified

2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Verified

3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Verified

4The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2013.

Directional

5The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2014.

Single source

6The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Verified

7The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Verified

8The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Verified

9The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2015.

Directional

10The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Single source

11The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Verified

12The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2015.

Verified

13The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Verified

14The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Directional

15The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Single source

16The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2016.

Verified

17The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.38% for end-2017.

Verified

18The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2017.

Verified

19The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.88% for end-2017.

Directional

20The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2017.

Single source

21The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2018.

Verified

22The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2018.

Verified

23The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Verified

24The December 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.38% for end-2018.

Directional

25The March 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.63% for end-2019.

Single source

26The June 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2019.

Verified

27The September 2018 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.

Verified

Next Year Median Interpretation

The Fed's dot plot resembles a cautious but stubborn hiker, repeatedly stopping to gaze at a distant summit, only to realize each time that the trail ahead is longer and steeper than they initially thought.

Two Years Ahead Median

1The March 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 1.75% for end-2014.

Verified

2The June 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Verified

3The September 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Verified

4The December 2012 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.00% for end-2014.

Directional

5The March 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.25% for end-2015.

Single source

6The June 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Verified

7The September 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Verified

8The December 2013 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2015.

Verified

9The March 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2016.

Directional

10The June 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Single source

11The September 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Verified

12The December 2014 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2016.

Verified

13The March 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2017.

Verified

14The June 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.

Directional

15The September 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection: 2.88% for end-2017.

Single source

16The December 2015 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2017.

Verified

17The March 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.50% for end-2018.

Verified

18The June 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.75% for end-2018.

Verified

19The September 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 2.88% for end-2018.

Directional

20The December 2016 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2018.

Single source

21The March 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.00% for end-2019.

Verified

22The June 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.13% for end-2019.

Verified

23The September 2017 FOMC dot plot showed a median federal funds rate projection of 3.25% for end-2019.

Verified

Two Years Ahead Median Interpretation

The Federal Reserve, in its infinite wisdom, consistently saw higher interest rates on a distant horizon, only for that horizon to perpetually drift forward like a monetary mirage.