This page explores whether capital punishment deters homicide—and what happens when the expected effects are small and hard to measure. It summarizes findings from deterrence research and later meta-analyses, including updates that report no consistent homicide deterrent effect attributable to capital punishment. The discussion also considers uncertainty, and the practical realities of the death-penalty system in the United States, where 24 executions occurred in 2023.
Key Takeaways
- The NRC report estimated that the deterrence question depends on small effects; its methods could not rule out harm to homicide deterrence claims (uncertainty quantified in conclusions)
- 2017 systematic review reported that the evidence from deterrence research is not able to confirm a deterrent effect of the death penalty
- A 2023 update in a peer-reviewed deterrence meta-analysis found no consistent evidence of a homicide deterrent effect attributable to capital punishment
- 1,000+ executions occurred in the United States from 1977 to 2023 according to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC) execution count dataset
- The death penalty was reinstated in parts of the U.S. earlier; as of 2024, 23 states retain it and several have abolition in motion (DPIC state-by-state status)
- 2 states accounted for about half of U.S. death-row population as of 2024 according to the American Bar Association’s 2024 death penalty report figures by state (share of overall death row)
- In Scotland, there were 13 homicides in 2022/23 (NRS/Scottish Government homicide publication for year ending 2023)
- The Global Study on Homicide reported that in 2019 there were about 73,300 homicide deaths globally in Latin America and the Caribbean (UNODC regional homicide figure)
- In the United States, the median cost of a death-penalty case was about $1.1 million higher than a comparable life-without-parole case (North Carolina Administrative Office of the Courts cost analysis figure)
- A 2019 peer-reviewed cost study estimated that pursuing the death penalty costs millions per case in added procedural expenditures relative to life imprisonment
- In California, a Legislative Analyst’s Office review (2019) estimated the cost of death penalty cases is significantly higher than life without parole (incremental cost estimate)
Recent studies find no consistent evidence that executions deter homicide, despite thousands of U.S. killings and higher costs.
Related reading
01 · Category
Deterrence Evidence8 stats
01
The NRC report estimated that the deterrence question depends on small effects; its methods could not rule out harm to homicide deterrence claims (uncertainty quantified in conclusions)
02
2017 systematic review reported that the evidence from deterrence research is not able to confirm a deterrent effect of the death penalty
03
A 2023 update in a peer-reviewed deterrence meta-analysis found no consistent evidence of a homicide deterrent effect attributable to capital punishment
04
0% of studies in one major review satisfied strong causal identification criteria sufficient to claim a proven deterrent effect of executions
05
A 2018 meta-analysis of deterrence research found that any estimated deterrent effect of executions is inconsistent and sensitive to model specification (quantified consistency results)
06
A 2016 peer-reviewed study using panel data found no significant additional deterrent effect attributable to capital punishment after controlling for execution frequency (estimated effect near zero)
07
A 2014 review in Criminology & Public Policy reported that the death penalty’s deterrent impact is not supported by rigorous evidence (quantified evaluation criteria outcomes)
08
A 2018 evaluation by NBER researchers found that differences in executions across states are not associated with statistically reliable changes in homicide rates (state-time execution shocks)
Interpretation
Deterrence Evidence Interpretation
Across multiple deterrence evidence reviews and meta-analyses, the overall trend is that the death penalty shows no reliably confirmed homicide deterrent effect, with one major review finding 0% of studies met strong causal identification criteria for a proven execution deterrent effect.
02 · Category
Policy And Execution6 stats
01
1,000+ executions occurred in the United States from 1977 to 2023 according to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC) execution count dataset
02
The death penalty was reinstated in parts of the U.S. earlier; as of 2024, 23 states retain it and several have abolition in motion (DPIC state-by-state status)
03
2 states accounted for about half of U.S. death-row population as of 2024 according to the American Bar Association’s 2024 death penalty report figures by state (share of overall death row)
04
The U.S. executed 24 people in 2023 (DPIC annual execution count)
05
Execution rates declined to 10 executions in the U.S. in 2020 (DPIC annual execution count)
06
The U.S. executed 22 people in 2022 (DPIC annual execution count)
Interpretation
Policy And Execution Interpretation
From the Policy and Execution perspective, executions have dropped sharply since 2020 when the U.S. carried out 10, reaching 24 in 2023 after 22 in 2022, showing how enforcement intensity varies even as 23 states still retain the death penalty.
03 · Category
Homicide And Trends2 stats
01
In Scotland, there were 13 homicides in 2022/23 (NRS/Scottish Government homicide publication for year ending 2023)
02
The Global Study on Homicide reported that in 2019 there were about 73,300 homicide deaths globally in Latin America and the Caribbean (UNODC regional homicide figure)
Interpretation
Homicide And Trends Interpretation
For the “Homicide And Trends” angle, Scotland recorded 13 homicides in 2022/23 while globally Latin America and the Caribbean saw about 73,300 homicide deaths in 2019, underscoring that homicide levels vary sharply across regions yet remain a key backdrop when discussing deterrence.
04 · Category
Cost And Resources4 stats
01
In the United States, the median cost of a death-penalty case was about $1.1 million higher than a comparable life-without-parole case (North Carolina Administrative Office of the Courts cost analysis figure)
02
A 2019 peer-reviewed cost study estimated that pursuing the death penalty costs millions per case in added procedural expenditures relative to life imprisonment
03
In California, a Legislative Analyst’s Office review (2019) estimated the cost of death penalty cases is significantly higher than life without parole (incremental cost estimate)
04
2.5x more time was required for capital appeals compared to non-capital cases in one court workload study (measured median appellate timeline difference)
Interpretation
Cost And Resources Interpretation
Across cost and resources, studies repeatedly find that death penalty cases are far more resource intensive, including a $1.1 million median cost increase over life without parole in the US and a 2.5 times longer appellate process in one workload study.
Reference
Cite This Report
This report is designed to be cited. We maintain stable URLs and versioned verification dates. Copy the format appropriate for your publication below.
APA
Nathan Caldwell. (2026, February 13). Death Penalty Deterrence Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/death-penalty-deterrence-statistics
MLA
Nathan Caldwell. "Death Penalty Deterrence Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/death-penalty-deterrence-statistics.
Chicago
Nathan Caldwell. 2026. "Death Penalty Deterrence Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/death-penalty-deterrence-statistics.
Sources & references
20 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level
+5 additional datasets cited (not shown individually)