Critical minerals are the unsung engines of the green energy revolution—powering EV batteries, wind turbines, and tech innovation—but do we truly grasp the raw numbers shaping their global role? From lithium, where Australia leads with 6.2 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) reserves (out of 28 million global), to cobalt (the Democratic Republic of Congo controls 6 million of 8.5 million tons), nickel (Australia holds 24 million of 100 million metric tons), and graphite (China dominates 190 million of 340 million), these resources are foundational to modern life, with 2023 lithium mine production reaching 180,000 metric tons LCE and demand surging 30% year-on-year; yet supply is far from evenly spread, with 90% of lithium, 70% of cobalt, and 85% of rare earth processing concentrated in a handful of countries, and prices like $32,717 per metric ton for Chinese lithium carbonate in 2023, alongside forecasts such as EV battery lithium demand growing 40-fold by 2040, underscoring both their promise and the vulnerabilities they bring to global trade.
Key Takeaways
- Global reserves of lithium are estimated at 28 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE)
- Australia holds the largest lithium reserves at 6.2 million metric tons LCE as of 2024
- Chile's lithium reserves stand at 9.3 million metric tons LCE
- Global lithium mine production reached 180,000 metric tons LCE in 2023
- Australia produced 88,000 metric tons LCE of lithium in 2023
- Chile's lithium production was 44,000 metric tons LCE in 2023
- Clean energy technologies accounted for 35% of total lithium demand in 2023
- Global lithium demand grew by 30% year-on-year to approximately 130,000 tons LCE in 2023
- Battery demand represented 85% of global lithium consumption in 2023
- EV battery demand for lithium projected to increase 40-fold by 2040 under STEPS scenario
- Cobalt demand from clean energy tech to quadruple by 2030 to 1 million tons APS scenario
- Nickel battery demand growth to reach 7x by 2040 in net zero scenario
- Lithium prices averaged $32,717 per metric ton for carbonate in China spot 2023
- Battery-grade lithium hydroxide price averaged $17,168 per ton in North Asia 2023
- Cobalt metal powder price averaged $28,162 per metric ton in US 2023
Blog post on critical minerals covers reserves, production, demand, prices.
Consumption and Demand
- Clean energy technologies accounted for 35% of total lithium demand in 2023
- Global lithium demand grew by 30% year-on-year to approximately 130,000 tons LCE in 2023
- Battery demand represented 85% of global lithium consumption in 2023
- US apparent lithium consumption was 7,200 metric tons LCE in 2023
- Electric vehicle batteries drove 60% of cobalt demand globally in 2023
- World cobalt consumption exceeded 200,000 metric tons in 2023
- US cobalt apparent consumption totaled 7,100 metric tons in 2023
- Nickel demand for EV batteries reached 15% of total consumption in 2023
- Global nickel consumption was around 3,200,000 metric tons in stainless steel and batteries in 2023
- US nickel apparent consumption stood at 85,000 metric tons in 2023
- Graphite demand for batteries surged 25% to 500,000 tons in 2023
- Natural graphite consumption in the US was 29,000 metric tons in 2023
- Synthetic graphite overtook natural in battery anode demand at 60% share in 2023
- Rare earth demand for magnets in EVs and wind turbines hit 200,000 tons REO in 2023
- US REO apparent consumption was 11,000 metric tons in 2023
- Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide demand grew 15% to 60,000 tons in 2023
- Global manganese consumption for steelmaking was 20 million tons Mn units in 2023
- US manganese apparent consumption reached 1,100,000 metric tons (gross wt) in 2023
- Battery sector consumed 10% of manganese alloys in 2023
- US copper consumption 1,800,000 t in 2023
- Global EV sales drove 4 million tons copper demand in 2023
- Aluminum consumption in US 5,700,000 t in 2023
- Antimony US consumption 5,000 t in 2023
- Gallium global demand 500 t for semiconductors and LEDs in 2023
- Germanium demand 150 t mainly for fiber optics in 2023
- Tantalum US consumption 200 t for capacitors in 2023
Consumption and Demand Interpretation
In 2023, the global sprint to clean energy supercharged demand for critical minerals, with lithium surging 30% to 130,000 tons (85% for batteries, 35% for clean tech), cobalt hitting 200,000 tons (60% driven by EVs), nickel totaling 3.2 million tons (15% for EV batteries), synthetic graphite overtaking natural in battery anodes (60% share), and EVs alone spurring 4 million tons of copper demand—while the U.S. remained a major consumer, taking 7,200 tons of lithium, 7,100 tons of cobalt, and millions more of aluminum, manganese, and other metals, highlighting just how essential these materials have become to powering the electrified future.
Prices and Market Trends
- Lithium prices averaged $32,717 per metric ton for carbonate in China spot 2023
- Battery-grade lithium hydroxide price averaged $17,168 per ton in North Asia 2023
- Cobalt metal powder price averaged $28,162 per metric ton in US 2023
- Cobalt hydroxide (Co 30%) CIF China averaged $18,500 per ton in 2023
- Nickel cathode (London Metal Exchange) averaged $21,795 per metric ton in 2023
- Standard-grade nickel (Rotterdam) averaged $21,600 per ton in 2023
- Natural graphite (lump + chip) averaged $685 per metric ton in China 2023
- Large flake (+80 mesh) graphite averaged $1,275 per ton in 2023
- NdPr oxide price averaged $85,000 per metric ton FOB China in 2023
- Dysprosium oxide averaged $350 per kg in China 2023
- Electrolytic manganese metal averaged $2,150 per metric ton in China 2023
- Silicomanganese (DC) averaged $1,350 per gross ton in US 2023
- Antimony trioxide averaged $11,300 per metric ton in Europe 2023
- Beryllium (Be) metal 99.5% min avg $800 per kg in US 2023
- Chromium metal avg $2,500-$4,000 per ton in US 2023
- Gallium (99.99% Ga) avg $525 per kg in US 2023
- Copper price LME averaged $8,492 per ton in 2023
- Aluminum avg $2,798 per ton LME in 2023
- Antimony regulus avg $11,000/t China in 2023
- Tantalum oxide avg $196/kg min 99.9% in US 2023
- Tungsten carbide avg $37/kg in US 2023
- Vanadium pentoxide avg $8.50/lb V2O5 Europe 2023
- Zinc avg $2,840/t LME 2023
- Tin avg $25,365/t LME 2023
- Platinum avg $987/oz in 2023
- Palladium avg $1,190/oz LME 2023
Prices and Market Trends Interpretation
In 2023, the prices of critical minerals painted a varied picture—from lithium carbonate at $32,717 per metric ton in China to dysprosium oxide at $350 per kg in China, from natural graphite at $685 per metric ton in China to aluminum at $2,798 per ton on the LME, including cobalt hydroxide at $18,500 per ton CIF China, nickel cathode at $21,795 per metric ton via LME, pricy metals like platinum at $987 per ounce and palladium at $1,190 per ounce via LME, and common ones like copper at $8,492 per ton and zinc at $2,840 per ton via LME, along with industrial staples such as silicomanganese at $1,350 per gross ton in the US and chromium at $2,500–$4,000 per ton in the US—reflecting a diverse market where supply, demand, and global trade shape the cost of materials that power everything from batteries to heavy industry.
Production Statistics
- Global lithium mine production reached 180,000 metric tons LCE in 2023
- Australia produced 88,000 metric tons LCE of lithium in 2023
- Chile's lithium production was 44,000 metric tons LCE in 2023
- China produced 33,000 metric tons LCE of lithium in 2023
- Argentina's lithium output was 9,600 metric tons LCE in 2023
- World cobalt mine production totaled 220,000 metric tons in 2023
- DRC produced 170,000 metric tons of cobalt in 2023
- Indonesia's cobalt production reached 18,000 metric tons in 2023
- Russia produced 8,800 metric tons of cobalt in 2023
- Global nickel mine production was 3,500,000 metric tons in 2023
- Indonesia led with 1,800,000 metric tons of nickel production in 2023
- Philippines produced 420,000 metric tons of nickel in 2023
- Russia output 270,000 metric tons of nickel in 2023
- World natural graphite production hit 1,400,000 metric tons in 2023
- China produced 1,100,000 metric tons of natural graphite in 2023
- Madagascar's graphite production was 150,000 metric tons in 2023
- India produced 40,000 metric tons of graphite in 2023
- Global REO mine production reached 350,000 metric tons in 2023
- China produced 270,000 metric tons REO in 2023
- Australia output 18,000 metric tons REO in 2023
- Myanmar produced 12,000 metric tons REO in 2023
- World manganese ore production (gross weight) was 20,000,000 metric tons Mn content equivalent in 2023
- South Africa produced 7,400,000 metric tons of manganese ore in 2023
- Australia manganese production reached 6,600,000 metric tons in 2023
- Gabon output 4,200,000 metric tons of manganese ore in 2023
- Global copper mine production reached 22 million metric tons in 2023
- Chile produced 5.4 million metric tons of copper in 2023
- Peru's copper output was 2.6 million metric tons in 2023
- DRC copper production hit 2.5 million metric tons in 2023
- China copper mine production 1.7 million tons in 2023
- World aluminum production was 69 million metric tons in 2023
- China produced 42 million metric tons of primary aluminum in 2023
- Global antimony mine production 1,400,000 tons? Wait, 110,000 t in 2023
- China antimony production 80,000 t in 2023
- Russia antimony 30,000 t in 2023
- Tantalum world production 2,800 t in 2023
- Rwanda tantalum 1,200 t in 2023
- Global tungsten production 84,000 t in 2023
- China tungsten 63,000 t in 2023
- Vietnam tungsten 3,400 t in 2023
Production Statistics Interpretation
In 2023, global critical minerals production painted a vivid picture of both major dominance and niche specialization—Australia led lithium (88,000 metric tons LCE), DRC dominated cobalt (170,000 tons), Indonesia topped nickel (1.8 million tons), and China controlled most graphite (1.1 million out of 1.4 million) and rare earth oxides (270,000 out of 350,000), while South Africa and Australia mined most manganese (7.4 million and 6.6 million tons of Mn-equivalent ore); in copper, Chile (5.4 million), Peru (2.6 million), and DRC (2.5 million) led, China produced over 60% of global primary aluminum (42 million out of 69 million metric tons), and smaller but key contributions included Russia (30,000 tons of antimony), Rwanda (1,200 tons of tantalum), and Vietnam (3,400 tons of tungsten) joining China's 63,000 tons in that metal.
Reserves and Resources
- Global reserves of lithium are estimated at 28 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE)
- Australia holds the largest lithium reserves at 6.2 million metric tons LCE as of 2024
- Chile's lithium reserves stand at 9.3 million metric tons LCE
- China possesses 3 million metric tons of lithium reserves
- Argentina has 3.6 million metric tons LCE in lithium reserves
- World cobalt reserves total 8.5 million metric tons
- Democratic Republic of Congo holds 6 million metric tons of cobalt reserves
- Australia has 1.7 million metric tons of cobalt reserves
- Indonesia's cobalt reserves are estimated at 600,000 metric tons
- Global nickel reserves amount to 100 million metric tons
- Indonesia leads nickel reserves with 21 million metric tons
- Brazil has 16 million metric tons of nickel reserves
- Australia holds 24 million metric tons of nickel reserves
- World natural graphite reserves are 340 million metric tons
- China has 190 million metric tons of graphite reserves
- Brazil possesses 74 million metric tons of graphite reserves
- Madagascar holds 26 million metric tons of graphite reserves
- Global rare earth oxide (REO) reserves total 110 million metric tons
- China dominates REO reserves with 44 million metric tons
- Vietnam has 22 million metric tons of REO reserves
- Brazil holds 21 million metric tons of REO reserves
- World manganese reserves (contained Mn) are 1.7 billion metric tons
- South Africa has 530 million metric tons of manganese reserves
- Australia possesses 430 million metric tons of manganese reserves (Mn content)
Reserves and Resources Interpretation
Global critical minerals reserves, as of 2024, paint a vivid picture of where the world stands—lithium is dominated by Chile (9.3 million metric tons LCE) and Australia (6.2 million), with China (3 million) and Argentina (3.6 million) close behind; cobalt is largely held by the Democratic Republic of Congo (6 million) and Australia (1.7 million), with Indonesia contributing 0.6 million; nickel reserves total 100 million, led by Indonesia (21 million), Brazil (16 million), and Australia (24 million); graphite, at 340 million metric tons, is mostly controlled by China (190 million), Brazil (74 million), and Madagascar (26 million); rare earth oxides (REO) hit 110 million, with China (44 million) in the lead, followed by Vietnam (22 million) and Brazil (21 million); and manganese, containing 1.7 billion metric tons, is primarily South Africa (530 million) and Australia (430 million).
Supply Risks and Projections
- EV battery demand for lithium projected to increase 40-fold by 2040 under STEPS scenario
- Cobalt demand from clean energy tech to quadruple by 2030 to 1 million tons APS scenario
- Nickel battery demand growth to reach 7x by 2040 in net zero scenario
- Graphite demand forecast to rise 8-fold by 2040 for batteries
- Rare earths demand expected to triple by 2040 driven by magnets
- 90% global lithium supply concentrated in Australia, Chile, and China in 2023
- DRC supplies 70% of world cobalt production, posing high supply risk
- China processes 85% of global rare earth elements, creating supply vulnerability
- Indonesia controls 50% of nickel mine production amid export bans
- Recycling supplied 25% of cobalt demand in 2023, highest among critical minerals
- 60% of copper supply risk from Chile and Peru concentration
- China dominates 60% of aluminum production capacity
- Gallium 98% produced in China, high geopolitical risk
- Germanium 60% refined in China, supply chain vulnerability
- Tungsten 80% mine production from China
Supply Risks and Projections Interpretation
If the clean energy future runs on batteries and magnets, it’s going to need a *lot* of critical minerals—lithium demand could skyrocket 40 times by 2040, cobalt quadrupling by 2030, nickel growing 7x, graphite 8x, and rare earths tripling—but the catch is, the world’s leaning on a few shaky piles: 90% of lithium comes from Australia, Chile, and China; 70% of cobalt from the DRC (high supply risk, anyone?); China refines 85% of rare earths, dominates aluminum (60% capacity), and produces 98% of gallium, 80% of tungsten; Indonesia controls half of nickel mines, and export bans only add to the chaos; recycling helps with cobalt (covering 25% in 2023, the highest) but most metals still rely on fragile supply chains, with copper (60% risk from Chile and Peru) and germanium (60% refined in China) especially vulnerable to concentration.
Sources & References
- Reference 1PUBSpubs.usgs.govVisit source
- Reference 2IEAiea.orgVisit source
- Reference 3BENCHMARKMINERALSbenchmarkminerals.comVisit source
- Reference 4ADAMASINTELadamasintel.comVisit source
- Reference 5WORLDSTEELworldsteel.orgVisit source
- Reference 6BGSbgs.ac.ukVisit source
- Reference 7INTERNATIONAL-ALUMINIUMinternational-aluminium.orgVisit source
- Reference 8COPPERALLIANCEcopperalliance.orgVisit source