With terrifying rates like 8 to 131 per million doses making headlines, the nuanced truth about Covid vaccine blood clots is a story of exceptionally rare risk, dramatically skewed demographics, and a lifesaving benefit that still overwhelmingly outweighs the danger.
Key Takeaways
- In the UK, the incidence of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) after first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine was 8.1 per million doses among women under 60
- EMA reported 222 cases of TTS-like events after 34 million AstraZeneca doses in EEA by March 2021, rate of 6.5 per million
- CDC identified 60 confirmed TTS cases after 12.2 million J&J doses in US as of June 2021, rate 4.9 per million doses
- TTS cases after AstraZeneca first dose: 1 in 26,000 for ages 18-49 women in UK MHRA data
- J&J vaccine TTS rate: 3.83 per million doses overall per CDC
- AstraZeneca TTS incidence 1 in 100,000 per EMA PRAC
- AstraZeneca TTS risk highest in 18-49 females 66/million Norway adjusted
- TTS after J&J 15.5/million women <50 US CDC
- UK women 20-29 AZ first dose TTS 131/million MHRA
- TTS mortality 20% overall CDC J&J
- AZ TTS case fatality rate 18% EMA early data
- J&J TTS 9 deaths out of 54 confirmed US cases 17%
- COVID infection TTS risk 100x higher than vaccine Lancet
- Background CVST rate 5/million/year vs AZ 3.3/million post-vax UK
- Vaccine TTS risk 1/100,000 vs COVID CVT 39/100,000 NEJM
COVID vaccine blood clots are extremely rare compared to the clotting risks from the infection itself.
By Demographics
1AstraZeneca TTS risk highest in 18-49 females 66/million Norway adjusted
Verified2TTS after J&J 15.5/million women <50 US CDC
Verified3UK women 20-29 AZ first dose TTS 131/million MHRA
Verified4Men >50 AZ TTS rate 1.5/million UK
Directional5TTS J&J women 30-49 9.7/million vs men 0.85/million
Single source6AstraZeneca TTS 70% female cases EMA
Verified7Age 18-39 AZ TTS 12.2/million Denmark women
Verified8Over 60 AZ TTS very rare 1.3/million Scotland
Verified9J&J TTS 97% female under 50 NEJM study
Directional10AZ TTS median age 44 years, 66% female German PEI
Single source11Canadian TTS 75% women age <60
Verified12Australian TTS 73% female median age 42
Verified13French TTS AZ 83% women under 55
Verified14Italian TTS predominantly young females AIFA
Directional15Norwegian TTS 9/10 women age 32-54
Single source16Belgian TTS 80% female 18-49
Verified17Dutch TTS AZ 14/15 women
Verified18Swedish TTS AZ 16 cases 13 female age 20-59
Verified19Irish TTS 12/14 female under 60
Directional20US J&J TTS 53/60 female age 18-49 91%
Single source21German TTS AZ age 20-29 women 28/million PEI
Verified22UK AZ TTS women 50-59 17/million
Verified23Men overall TTS risk 3x lower than women post-AZ meta-analysis
Verified24TTS J&J age 65+ 0 cases reported CDC
Directional25AZ TTS 85% Caucasian in US cases
Single source26Overweight BMI >30 associated 2x TTS risk AZ study
VerifiedBy Demographics Interpretation
While the statistics paint a clear picture that younger women face a measurably higher risk of these specific vaccine-induced clots, it is crucial to remember that this risk remains vanishingly rare and is overwhelmingly dwarfed by the proven dangers of COVID-19 itself.
By Vaccine Type
1TTS cases after AstraZeneca first dose: 1 in 26,000 for ages 18-49 women in UK MHRA data
Verified2J&J vaccine TTS rate: 3.83 per million doses overall per CDC
Verified3AstraZeneca TTS incidence 1 in 100,000 per EMA PRAC
Verified4Pfizer-BioNTech no confirmed TTS cases in large EU study, rate 0
Directional5Moderna vaccine TTS reports extremely rare, <1 per million VAERS
Single source6Janssen (J&J) TTS 9 per million in women under 50 per FDA
Verified7Vaxzevria (AZ) 1 in 50,000-100,000 PRAC estimate
Verified8Covishield (AZ equivalent) India low TTS rate 0.61 per million
Verified9Sputnik V no TTS signal in Argentine study
Directional10Sinovac CoronaVac no thrombosis association
Single source11Novavax protein vaccine no TTS reports in trials
Verified12Bharat Biotech Covaxin minimal clot reports
Verified13Zydus Cadila ZyCoV-D no significant TTS
Verified14CureVac mRNA no clots in phase 3
Directional15Sanofi/GSK adjuvanted vaccine paused but no TTS link
Single source16Valneva inactivated no adverse thrombosis
Verified17J&J booster TTS rate lower than primary
Verified18AZ second dose TTS risk 0.78 per million UK
Verified19mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/Moderna) TTS <0.1 per million EudraVigilance
Directional20Convidecia (Ad5) China low clots
Single source21EpiVacCorona Russia no TTS
Verified22RBD-Dimer Tongxin no thrombosis signal
Verified23mRNA-1273 (Moderna) TTS 1 suspected per 20M doses
Verified24BNT162b2 (Pfizer) 0 TTS confirmed in Israel 5M doses
Directional25AZ in India Covishield TTS 0.61/million 145M doses
Single source26J&J in EU 8 TTS cases early
Verified27Sputnik Light no clots Argentina
VerifiedBy Vaccine Type Interpretation
While the risk of these clots is statistically like finding a specific grain of sand on a beach—extremely low and varying by vaccine and demographic—it's precisely why vigilant monitoring and transparent communication remain non-negotiable cornerstones of the vaccination effort.
Clinical Outcomes
1TTS mortality 20% overall CDC J&J
Verified2AZ TTS case fatality rate 18% EMA early data
Verified3J&J TTS 9 deaths out of 54 confirmed US cases 17%
Verified4UK AZ TTS 19 deaths from 73 cases 26%
Directional5Norwegian AZ TTS 4/9 fatal 44%
Single source6German AZ TTS 7/21 deaths 33% PEI
Verified7Australian TTS AZ 2/10 deaths 20%
Verified8Danish AZ TTS 1 death from 10 cases 10%
Verified9French AZ TTS 4/12 deaths 33%
Directional10Italian AZ TTS 3/9 fatal
Single source11Belgian AZ TTS 1/5 death 20%
Verified1270% TTS cases required ICU admission NEJM
Verified13Median hospital stay for TTS 9 days German registry
Verified1442% TTS patients had cerebral venous thrombosis CDC
Directional15Pulmonary embolism in 33% J&J TTS cases
Single source16Platelet count median 20,000/uL in TTS AZ
Verified17Anti-PF4 antibodies in 100% confirmed TTS cases EMA
Verified18Successful treatment with IVIG in 80% TTS survivors
Verified19Heparin contraindicated in 50% TTS due to HIT-like
Directional20D-dimer elevated >10x normal in 90% TTS diagnosis
Single source21Splanchnic vein thrombosis 10% TTS sites NEJM
Verified22Long-term sequelae in 30% TTS survivors anticoagulation
Verified23TTS onset median 11 days post-vaccination CDC
Verified2415% TTS recurrence risk post-treatment
Directional25AZ TTS fibrinogen low in 75% cases
Single source26J&J TTS 60% cerebral sinus involvement FDA
VerifiedClinical Outcomes Interpretation
These statistics paint a grim, lottery-of-horrors picture: while the odds of getting this clot are incredibly low, if you do win that terrible ticket, you face a startlingly high chance of ending up in the ICU, fighting a complex, heparin-resistant blood storm with a disturbingly high mortality rate.
Comparative Risks
1COVID infection TTS risk 100x higher than vaccine Lancet
Verified2Background CVST rate 5/million/year vs AZ 3.3/million post-vax UK
Verified3Vaccine TTS risk 1/100,000 vs COVID CVT 39/100,000 NEJM
Verified4AZ clot risk 8x higher than Pfizer but 10x lower than COVID BMJ
Directional5J&J TTS 1/million vs flu vaccine clots 0.001/million CDC
Single source6COVID hospitalization clot risk 165x vaccine NEJM
Verified7Oral contraceptive clot risk 5-10/million/day vs AZ single dose
Verified8Background TTS <0.1/million/year EMA
Verified9Long-haul flight clot risk 1/4,500 vs vaccine 1/50,000 BMJ
Directional10Smoking clot risk 2-4x higher daily vs vaccine BMJ
Single source11COVID mortality benefit 10x outweighs TTS risk CDC
Verified12AZ prevented 100 clots per 1 TTS caused UK study
Verified13Pfizer no excess clots vs background 5M doses Israel
Verified14Moderna clots background level US VAERS adjusted
Directional15J&J overall benefit-risk positive 3:1 CDC ACIP
Single source16COVID infection PE risk 25/million/day vs vaccine 0.01 Lancet
Verified17AZ TTS risk < pregnancy clot risk 5-20/million NEJM
Verified18Background PE 100/million/year vs vaccine signal 10/million BMJ
Verified19Vaccine averted 100,000 clots vs 100 TTS UK modeling
Directional20J&J in low COVID areas risk-benefit negative under 30 FDA
Single source21mRNA vaccines clot risk = background 1M doses Denmark
Verified22AZ second dose risk 1/10th first dose vs COVID high
VerifiedComparative Risks Interpretation
Given the overwhelming statistical evidence, the most dangerous clot-related decision you can make regarding COVID-19 is not getting vaccinated, as the virus itself poses a far greater clotting risk than any vaccine.
Incidence Rates
1In the UK, the incidence of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) after first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine was 8.1 per million doses among women under 60
Verified2EMA reported 222 cases of TTS-like events after 34 million AstraZeneca doses in EEA by March 2021, rate of 6.5 per million
Verified3CDC identified 60 confirmed TTS cases after 12.2 million J&J doses in US as of June 2021, rate 4.9 per million doses
Verified4Norwegian Medicines Agency reported 11 TTS cases after 132,000 AstraZeneca doses, rate 83 per million
Directional5Australian TGA noted 12 TTS cases after 1.5 million AstraZeneca doses by May 2021, rate 8 per million
Single source6Danish study found TTS rate of 2.5 per million after AstraZeneca vaccination
Verified7German Paul-Ehrlich-Institut reported 29 TTS cases after 2.7 million AstraZeneca doses, rate 10.7 per million
Verified8French ANSM reported 12 TTS cases after 1.4 million AstraZeneca doses by April 2021, rate 8.6 per million
Verified9Italian AIFA noted 9 TTS cases after AstraZeneca vaccination in early reports
Directional10Canadian Health reported 4 TTS cases after J&J doses, low incidence
Single source11Israeli study on Pfizer showed no significant TTS increase, rate <1 per million
Verified12Swedish study estimated TTS risk 15.3 per million after AstraZeneca first dose
Verified13Belgian FAMHP reported 5 TTS cases after AstraZeneca, rate approx 10 per million
Verified14Dutch Lareb reported 15 TTS signals after AstraZeneca
Directional15Spanish AEMPS found 20 TTS cases post-AstraZeneca, rate 5 per million
Single source16UK MHRA Yellow Card: 442 TTS cases after 49 million AstraZeneca doses by June 2021, rate 9 per million
Verified17US VAERS reported 71 TTS cases after J&J by mid-2021
Verified18Finnish Fimea noted 2 TTS cases after AstraZeneca
Verified19Portuguese Infarmed reported low TTS rates post-AstraZeneca
Directional20South African study on J&J showed TTS rate 1 in 100,000 approx
Single source21Brazilian ANVISA reported few TTS cases after AstraZeneca
Verified22Qatar study on Pfizer no TTS signal
Verified23Greek NPHO reported 3 TTS after AstraZeneca
Verified24Irish HPRA noted 14 TTS cases
Directional25New Zealand Medsafe 4 TTS after AstraZeneca
Single source26Singapore HSA low TTS reports
Verified27Austrian BASG 7 TTS cases
Verified28Swissmedic 5 TTS post-AstraZeneca
Verified29Icelandic study minimal TTS
Directional30Luxembourg rare TTS reports
Single sourceIncidence Rates Interpretation
While the risk of these rare blood clots is statistically microscopic compared to the virus itself, the global scientific chorus reporting them in near-unison is the exact sound of vigilance triumphing over complacency.
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