As China's economy defied deflationary pressures to post a robust 5.2% growth in 2023, the underlying data reveals a nation strategically rebalancing, where soaring vehicle exports and a consumption-driven recovery are writing the next chapter of its global economic story.
Key Takeaways
- China's GDP in 2023 was 126.0582 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% year-on-year growth rate
- China's GDP per capita in 2023 stood at 89,358 yuan, up 6.2% from 2022
- Quarterly GDP growth in Q4 2023 was 5.3% year-on-year, contributing to annual target achievement
- China's total exports in 2023 reached 3.38 trillion USD, up 0.6% YoY
- Total imports in 2023 were 2.56 trillion USD, down 5.5% YoY
- Trade surplus in 2023 was 823.0 billion USD
- CPI inflation in 2023 averaged 0.2% year-on-year
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) 2023: 0.8% YoY average
- PPI in 2023 declined by 3.0% on average YoY
- Urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in 2023
- Surveyed urban unemployment Dec 2023: 5.1%
- Total employed persons 2023: 740.41 million, up 0.6%
- Public debt to GDP ratio 2023: 83.6%
- Central government debt 2023: 30.1 trillion yuan
- Local government debt 2023 explicit: 40.74 trillion yuan
China's economy grew steadily in 2023 despite facing deflation and a property sector downturn.
Employment and Labor
- Urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in 2023
- Surveyed urban unemployment Dec 2023: 5.1%
- Total employed persons 2023: 740.41 million, up 0.6%
- Youth unemployment (16-24 excl students) Dec 2023: 14.9%
- Migrant workers 2023: 296.63 million, up 1.7%
- Average monthly wage urban private units 2023: 66,809 yuan annually
- Non-private urban wage 2023: 120,698 yuan annually, up 3.8%
- Labor force participation rate 2023: around 68%
- New urban jobs 2023: 12.44 million created
- Unemployment in manufacturing 2023 stable at 4.5%
- Services sector employment share 2023: 48.1%
- Industry employment share 2023: 28.2%
- Agriculture employment 2023: 23.7%
- Minimum wage Beijing 2024: 2,420 yuan/month
- Female labor participation 2023: 61.3%
- Unemployment rate 25-59 years 2023 avg: 4.1%
- Rural surplus labor 2023: decreased by 1.5 million
- IT employment growth 2023: high demand
- Wage growth private sector 2023: 4.5% nominal
- Labor productivity growth 2023: 5.4%
- Gig economy workers 2023: over 200 million
- Unemployment surveyed Jan 2024: 5.2%
- Youth unemployment avg 2023: 14.9%, peaked at 21.3%
- Employment in high-tech manufacturing up 6.8% 2023
- Strategic emerging industries employment up 7.1% 2023
Employment and Labor Interpretation
The Chinese economy presents a tale of two workforces: a broadly stable, growing overall employment picture cheerfully masking the stubbornly high anxiety of its youth and the vast, grinding reality of its low-wage gig and migrant worker base, all while racing toward a high-tech future that may or may not have a desk for everyone.
GDP and Growth
- China's GDP in 2023 was 126.0582 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% year-on-year growth rate
- China's GDP per capita in 2023 stood at 89,358 yuan, up 6.2% from 2022
- Quarterly GDP growth in Q4 2023 was 5.3% year-on-year, contributing to annual target achievement
- China's GDP PPP in 2023 was estimated at 33.015 trillion international dollars
- Real GDP growth averaged 5.2% in 2023, driven by manufacturing recovery
- China's GDP expanded by 17.7 trillion yuan in constant prices from 2022 to 2023
- Contribution of final consumption to GDP growth in 2023 was 4.3 percentage points
- Capital formation contributed 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2023
- Net exports added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in 2023
- Primary industry GDP in 2023 was 9.95 trillion yuan, up 4.1%
- Secondary industry GDP in 2023 reached 49.08 trillion yuan, growing 4.7%
- Tertiary industry GDP in 2023 was 67.02 trillion yuan, up 5.8%
- China's GDP growth forecast for 2024 by IMF is 4.6%
- Local GDP in Beijing 2023 was 4.4 trillion yuan, growth 5.2%
- Shanghai GDP 2023 was 4.72 trillion yuan, up 5.0%
- Guangdong GDP 2023 was 13.57 trillion yuan, growth 4.8%
- Nominal GDP growth in 2023 was 6.0% year-on-year
- China's share of global GDP PPP was 19.0% in 2023
- GDP deflator in 2023 was approximately 0.8%
- Fixed asset investment growth in 2023 was 3.0%, supporting GDP
- China's GDP in USD terms 2023 was 17.79 trillion, second globally
- Annualized quarterly GDP growth Q1 2024 was 5.3%
- Contribution of services to GDP growth 82.9% in 2023
- Industry contribution to growth 37.3% in 2023
- Agriculture contribution to growth 7.1% in 2023
- GDP growth in H1 2023 was 5.5%
- Full-year GDP target for 2023 was around 5%, achieved at 5.2%
- China's GDP in 2022 was 121.02 trillion yuan for comparison
- Projected GDP growth 2025 IMF 4.1%
- Real GDP index 2023=102.6 (2022=100)
GDP and Growth Interpretation
While China's economic engine purred to a respectable 5.2% growth in 2023, the fact that its GDP deflator was a sleepy 0.8% suggests the real roar is coming from a services sector, contributing over 80% of that growth, desperately trying to wake up a slumbering dragon of domestic demand.
Inflation and Prices
- CPI inflation in 2023 averaged 0.2% year-on-year
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) 2023: 0.8% YoY average
- PPI in 2023 declined by 3.0% on average YoY
- CPI Dec 2023: -0.1% MoM, 0.1% YoY
- Food CPI 2023 average: -0.2% YoY
- Non-food CPI 2023: 0.4% YoY
- Consumer goods PPI 2023: down 2.4% YoY average
- CPI target 2024: around 3%
- Housing prices index urban YoY Dec 2023: down 0.5%
- Retail sales inflation implicit 2023 low due to weak demand
- GDP deflator 2023: 0.8%, indicating mild deflation pressure
- M2 money supply growth 2023: 10.4% YoY average
- CPI Q4 2023 average: 0.1% YoY
- Pork prices CPI contribution negative in 2023 due to oversupply
- Energy PPI 2023: down 9.1% YoY
- Vegetable prices CPI 2023: up 7.7% YoY average
- Inflation rate Jan 2024: 0.3% YoY
- Producer prices Jan 2024: -2.5% YoY
- CPI urban 2023: 0.3% YoY average, rural -0.6%
- Wholesale prices index 2023 end: down from peak
- Implicit price deflator services 2023: up 1.2%
- CPI forecast 2024 IMF: 1.7%
- Egg prices CPI 2023: up 21.5% YoY
- Fresh fruit CPI 2023: up 6.8% YoY
- Tobacco CPI 2023: up 3.3% YoY
- Liquor CPI 2023: up 0.3% YoY
- Clothing CPI 2023: down 0.2% YoY
- Household facilities CPI 2023: up 0.3% YoY
- Healthcare CPI 2023: up 0.4% YoY
- Transport CPI 2023: down 2.0% YoY
- Communication CPI 2023: down 0.2% YoY
- Recreation CPI 2023: up 1.0% YoY
- Education CPI 2023: up 1.4% YoY
- Residence CPI 2023: down 0.4% YoY
Inflation and Prices Interpretation
In a surprising act of national restraint, China’s economy in 2023 barely bothered to inflate, treating the process as more of a suggestion than a directive, while certain grocery items like eggs staged a spirited and costly rebellion of their own.
Public Debt and Investment
- Public debt to GDP ratio 2023: 83.6%
- Central government debt 2023: 30.1 trillion yuan
- Local government debt 2023 explicit: 40.74 trillion yuan
- Fiscal deficit 2023: 3.8% of GDP
- Fixed asset investment total 2023: 47.45 trillion yuan, up 3.0%
- Infrastructure investment 2023: 10.22 trillion yuan, up 5.9%
- Real estate investment 2023: down 9.6% YoY
- Manufacturing investment 2023: up 9.8%
- High-tech investment 2023: up 10.3% YoY
- Government bond issuance 2023: record levels for LGFVs
- Augmented fiscal deficit 2023: 8.6% of GDP IMF est.
- Social financing stock 2023 end: 346.64 trillion yuan, up 9.5%
- Bank loans growth 2023: 10.8% YoY
- Foreign direct investment used 2023: 1.1 trillion yuan, down 8%
- R&D expenditure 2023: 3.3 trillion yuan, up 8.4%
- Private investment growth 2023: 0.1%
- State-owned investment growth 2023: 11.5%
- Overseas direct investment 2023: 147.9 billion USD, up 1.8%
- Local govt special bonds 2023: 3.8 trillion yuan issued
- Debt servicing cost 2023: high for LGFVs
Public Debt and Investment Interpretation
The numbers paint a picture of a patient being strategically injected with state-led investment to mend a real estate fracture, but the pulse of private capital remains worryingly faint as the IV bag of public debt swells to record levels.
Trade and Exports
- China's total exports in 2023 reached 3.38 trillion USD, up 0.6% YoY
- Total imports in 2023 were 2.56 trillion USD, down 5.5% YoY
- Trade surplus in 2023 was 823.0 billion USD
- Exports to US in 2023: 500.3 billion USD, up 4.7%
- Imports from US 2023: 154.1 billion USD, up 5.6%
- Exports to EU 2023: 501.2 billion USD, down 6.2%
- FDI inflows 2023: 163.2 billion USD, down 27.1% YoY
- Exports of electrical machinery 2023: 827.7 billion USD
- Share of exports in GDP 2023: 19.7%
- Trade volume with ASEAN 2023: 911 billion USD, up 1.9%
- Exports growth Dec 2023: 2.3% YoY
- Imports growth Jan 2024: 2.1% YoY
- Belt and Road trade volume 2023: 19.47 trillion yuan, up 2.8%
- Mechanical products exports 2023: up 2.7% YoY
- High-tech products exports 2023: up 4.0% YoY
- Trade with RCEP countries 2023: 14.36 trillion yuan, up 0.4%
- Current account surplus 2023: 264.8 billion USD
- Foreign exchange reserves Dec 2023: 3.238 trillion USD
- Exports of vehicles 2023: 4.91 million units, up 57.3%
- Soybean imports 2023: 99.3 million tons, down 3.9%
- Crude oil imports 2023: 11.28 million bpd average
- LNG imports 2023: 79.42 million tons, up 12.3%
- Semiconductor imports 2023: 385 billion USD
- Trade balance with Japan 2023: surplus 48.5 billion USD
- Services trade deficit 2023: 152.2 billion USD
- Exports YoY growth target 2024: around 5-7%
- Imports of integrated circuits 2023: down 8.5%
- Total trade volume 2023: 5.94 trillion USD, down 4.6%
Trade and Exports Interpretation
Despite a global slowdown pinching its overall trade, China's export machine proved remarkably resilient in 2023, deftly navigating a pivot from Western markets toward strategic partners and high-value goods while running up a record surplus that could make even the most seasoned trade negotiator raise an eyebrow.
Sources & References
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