While China's aluminum industry powered nearly 60% of the world's production last year, a complex story of surging demand, green transition, and regional shifts is reshaping the foundation of this global giant.
Key Takeaways
- In 2022, China's primary aluminum production reached 40.21 million metric tons, accounting for 59% of global output
- China's aluminum smelting capacity exceeded 46 million tons by end-2022, with major expansions in Yunnan province
- In 2023 Q1, China's primary aluminum output was 10.45 million tons, up 6% year-on-year
- China's apparent aluminum consumption reached 42 million tons in 2022, up 3% from 2021
- In 2023 H1, China's aluminum demand grew 5.2% to 22.5 million tons, driven by auto sector
- Automotive aluminum use in China hit 4.1 million tons in 2022, up 12% YoY
- In 2022, China exported 6.2 million tons of aluminum products, up 2% YoY
- China's primary aluminum exports were 590,000 tons in 2022, down 15% due to quotas
- Aluminum semi-fabricated exports from China hit 5.6 million tons in 2022
- Average Shanghai aluminum price was 18,500 RMB/ton in 2022, down 5% YoY
- LME aluminum futures settled at $2,650/ton average in 2022 for China deliveries
- China's aluminum premium over LME was $120/ton in 2022 average
- China's aluminum industry emitted 640 million tons CO2 in 2022, 12% of national total
- Aluminum smelters' power consumption was 13,800 kWh/ton in China 2022 average
- China pledged to peak aluminum carbon emissions by 2025, per 2021 policy
China's aluminum industry dominates global production and continues expanding significantly.
Consumption
- China's apparent aluminum consumption reached 42 million tons in 2022, up 3% from 2021
- In 2023 H1, China's aluminum demand grew 5.2% to 22.5 million tons, driven by auto sector
- Automotive aluminum use in China hit 4.1 million tons in 2022, up 12% YoY
- China's construction sector consumed 18 million tons of aluminum in 2022, 43% of total
- Power grid aluminum consumption was 5.2 million tons in China 2022
- Packaging industry aluminum demand in China reached 6.8 million tons in 2022
- China's beverage can aluminum consumption grew to 1.5 million tons in 2022
- Electronics sector used 2.3 million tons of aluminum in China 2022, up 8%
- Transportation excluding auto consumed 3.4 million tons aluminum in China 2022
- China's household appliances aluminum demand was 2.1 million tons in 2022
- Machinery sector aluminum consumption in China hit 1.9 million tons 2022
- In 2023, China's aluminum stock levels averaged 1.2 million tons, indicating tight supply-demand
- Solar PV frames consumed 0.8 million tons aluminum in China 2022
- China's aluminum per capita consumption was 30 kg in 2022, vs global 8 kg
- New energy vehicles boosted aluminum demand by 1.2 million tons extra in China 2022
- Building facades used 4.5 million tons aluminum in China 2022
- China's aluminum extrusion consumption reached 12 million tons in 2022
- Rail transport aluminum demand was 0.6 million tons in China 2022
- Furniture and daily use consumed 1.1 million tons aluminum China 2022
- Medical equipment aluminum use grew to 0.3 million tons in China 2022
- China's aluminum sheet consumption was 9.2 million tons in 2022
- Aviation sector consumed 0.15 million tons aluminum in China 2022
- Toys and sports equipment used 0.4 million tons aluminum China 2022
- China's total aluminum demand forecast for 2023 is 44.5 million tons, up 6%
Consumption Interpretation
While construction still props up nearly half of China's colossal aluminum appetite, the real action is a high-speed, multi-fronted race where shiny new energy vehicles and soda cans are gunning for the same light metal as your future solar panels and appliances, all conspiring to keep the nation's per capita consumption briskly at four times the global average.
Environment
- China's aluminum industry emitted 640 million tons CO2 in 2022, 12% of national total
- Aluminum smelters' power consumption was 13,800 kWh/ton in China 2022 average
- China pledged to peak aluminum carbon emissions by 2025, per 2021 policy
- PFAS emissions from aluminum fluorides controlled under 2022 standards in China
- Recycling rate of aluminum scrap in China reached 12% in 2022
- China's aluminum sector water usage was 2.5 billion cubic meters in 2022
- SO2 emissions from aluminum industry fell 15% to 120,000 tons in 2022 China
- Green aluminum production capacity hit 5 million tons in China by 2022 using hydro
- Fluoride emissions standard tightened to 0.8 kg/ton aluminum in 2022 China
- Coal-based aluminum smelters to phase out 10 million tons capacity by 2025
- China's aluminum industry PM2.5 emissions reduced 20% in 2022 via scrubbers
- Electrolytic aluminum carbon footprint targeted <12 tons CO2/ton by 2030
- Waste residue from alumina refining was 40 million tons in China 2022, red mud issue
- Hydro-powered aluminum output share rose to 45% in 2022 China southwest
- NOx emissions from aluminum plants down 18% to 80,000 tons in 2022
- Circular economy in aluminum recycling saved 10 million tons CO2 eq in 2022
- Bauxite residue utilization rate reached 15% in China 2022
- Aluminum sector energy intensity fell 3% to 13,500 kWh/ton in 2022
- Dual carbon goals cap new aluminum capacity at 500,000 tons/year till 2025
- Spent potlining waste treatment capacity expanded to 300,000 tons/year 2022
- Green electricity usage in aluminum smelting hit 30% in 2022 pilots
Environment Interpretation
While China's aluminum industry remains a colossal, coal-fired climate heavyweight, the data reveals a sector straining under a self-imposed green straightjacket, making measurable, if incremental, progress in an attempt to sweat out its colossal carbon hangover.
Market
- Average Shanghai aluminum price was 18,500 RMB/ton in 2022, down 5% YoY
- LME aluminum futures settled at $2,650/ton average in 2022 for China deliveries
- China's aluminum premium over LME was $120/ton in 2022 average
- Domestic aluminum ingot spot price ranged 17,800-19,200 RMB/ton in 2022
- Aluminum oxide price averaged 3,200 RMB/ton in China 2022
- Prebaked anode prices rose to 4,500 RMB/ton by end-2022 in China
- China's aluminum sector revenue reached 1.2 trillion RMB in 2022
- Top producer Chalco's aluminum revenue was 180 billion RMB in 2022
- Market cap of listed aluminum firms in China totaled 500 billion RMB end-2022
- Aluminum futures trading volume on SHFE was 120 million tons in 2022
- China's aluminum industry profit margin averaged 2.5% in 2022
- Spot aluminum price hit peak 22,000 RMB/ton in April 2022
- A00 aluminum premium in East China was 150 RMB/ton avg 2022
- Carbon electrode costs rose 15% to impact aluminum prices in 2022 China
- Chalco market share in primary aluminum was 25% in China 2022
- Aluminum ETF trading in China saw 50 billion RMB turnover 2022
- Power costs for aluminum smelting averaged 0.45 RMB/kWh in 2022 China
- Yunnan aluminum cash cost was 14,200 RMB/ton avg 2022, lowest nationally
- Industry capacity utilization drove prices up 10% in Q4 2022 China
- Aluminum billet price averaged 18,800 RMB/ton in 2022 South China
- Forex impact on aluminum trade prices was 5% variance in 2022 China
- Shandong aluminum relocation costs added 500 RMB/ton to prices 2022
- China's aluminum PMI index averaged 52 in 2022, expansionary
- Coal price surge raised alumina costs by 20% in mid-2022 China
- End-2022 aluminum price forecast by SMM was 19,000 RMB/ton
Market Interpretation
Despite squeezing out over a trillion yuan in revenue, China's aluminum industry survived 2022 on a razor-thin 2.5% margin, as global prices and domestic power and carbon costs engaged in a brutal tug-of-war that left even the mighty Chalco feeling the strain.
Production
- In 2022, China's primary aluminum production reached 40.21 million metric tons, accounting for 59% of global output
- China's aluminum smelting capacity exceeded 46 million tons by end-2022, with major expansions in Yunnan province
- In 2023 Q1, China's primary aluminum output was 10.45 million tons, up 6% year-on-year
- Guangxi province produced 6.2 million tons of primary aluminum in 2022, representing 15% of national total
- China's secondary aluminum production hit 6.8 million tons in 2022, driven by scrap recycling growth
- By 2023, China's aluminum electrolysis capacity utilization rate was 92.5%, highest in five years
- Shandong province's primary aluminum output was 4.1 million tons in 2022, down due to energy curbs
- In 2021, China's alumina refining capacity reached 130 million tons annually
- Xinjiang region produced 2.8 million tons of primary aluminum in 2022, leveraging hydropower
- China's aluminum can production capacity was 120 billion units per year in 2022
- Henan province's aluminum output stood at 3.5 million tons in 2022
- In H1 2023, China's primary aluminum production grew 8.5% to 21.2 million tons
- China's bauxite mining output was 90 million tons in 2022, mostly imported dependent
- Inner Mongolia's aluminum smelters produced 5.6 million tons in 2022
- China's aluminum foil production reached 1.2 million tons in 2022
- Qinghai province's output was 2.1 million tons of primary aluminum in 2022
- National aluminum profile extrusion capacity hit 18 million tons in 2022
- In 2023, China's prebaked anode production for aluminum smelting was 45 million tons
- Guizhou province produced 1.9 million tons primary aluminum in 2022
- China's aluminum sheet and plate output was 8.5 million tons in 2022
- Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region's aluminum production was 1.7 million tons in 2022
- In 2022, China's total aluminum processing capacity exceeded 55 million tons
- Shanxi province's primary aluminum output was 1.4 million tons in 2022
- China's carbon block production for aluminum industry was 3.2 million tons in 2022
- Gansu province produced 1.2 million tons aluminum in 2022
- China's aluminum cable and wire production volume was 4.8 million tons in 2022
- Chongqing municipality's aluminum output reached 0.9 million tons in 2022
- In 2023 Q2, primary aluminum production in China was 10.3 million tons, up 5% YoY
- China's aluminum die-casting capacity was 12 million tons annually in 2022
Production Interpretation
China is pouring more aluminum than any nation in history, yet the statistics whisper a fascinating tale of shifting production hubs, a relentless climb towards full capacity, and a quietly booming scrap-based side hustle.
Trade
- In 2022, China exported 6.2 million tons of aluminum products, up 2% YoY
- China's primary aluminum exports were 590,000 tons in 2022, down 15% due to quotas
- Aluminum semi-fabricated exports from China hit 5.6 million tons in 2022
- In 2023 H1, China imported 1.2 million tons of alumina, up 20%
- US imported $2.5 billion worth of aluminum from China in 2022
- China's aluminum foil exports reached 850,000 tons in 2022
- EU imported 1.1 million tons aluminum products from China in 2022
- China bauxite imports were 118 million tons in 2022, 70% from Guinea
- Japan's aluminum imports from China were 400,000 tons in 2022
- China's aluminum scrap imports dropped to 1.1 million tons in 2022
- South Korea imported 550,000 tons aluminum from China 2022
- In 2023 Q1, China aluminum exports rose 10% to 1.6 million tons
- India imported 300,000 tons aluminum products from China in 2022
- China's aluminum alloy exports were 1.2 million tons in 2022
- Vietnam was top destination for China aluminum exports at 800,000 tons in 2022
- Australia exported 25 million tons bauxite to China in 2022
- China's aluminum profile exports hit 2.1 million tons 2022
- Indonesia alumina exports to China were 10 million tons in 2022
- Mexico imported 150,000 tons aluminum from China 2022
- China's aluminum sheet exports were 1.8 million tons in 2022
- Brazil bauxite imports from China negligible, but China exported 50,000 tons products 2022
- In 2022, China aluminum trade surplus was $15 billion
- Thailand imported 250,000 tons aluminum from China 2022
- China's aluminum wire exports reached 450,000 tons 2022
- Russia imported 100,000 tons aluminum semi-products from China 2022
- In 2023, China's LME aluminum imports/exports balanced at 200,000 tons net export
- UAE imported 180,000 tons aluminum from China 2022
Trade Interpretation
China continues to play the world's metal market with a strategy befitting a chess grandmaster, shrewdly swapping its own raw material appetite for a torrent of finished goods that dominate global supply chains, all while carefully navigating the international political currents.
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