Plague numbers can look simple until the gap between infections and outcomes shows up in the data. Modern antibiotics such as streptomycin cure about 85 to 95 percent of bubonic cases when treatment starts early, while untreated bubonic cases often reach fatality rates near 60 to 100 percent. The dataset below tracks how transmission conditions and recovery chances shaped severity from place to place.
Key Takeaways
- Modern antibiotics like streptomycin cure 85-95% bubonic plague if given early
- Europe's population was approximately 75-80 million in 1340 before the plague's arrival
- The Black Death originated in Central Asia around 1338-1339, likely from the Mongol Golden Horde region near Lake Issyk-Kul in modern Kyrgyzstan
- The plague led to labor shortages causing wages to double in England by 1350, per Statute of Labourers
- Black Death bubonic form had 30-60% fatality untreated, pneumonic 90-95%, septicemic nearly 100%
Black Plague outbreaks repeatedly swept through Europe, killing a large share of populations across multiple waves.
Related reading
01 · Category
Modern Understanding and Prevention27 stats
01
Modern antibiotics like streptomycin cure 85-95% bubonic plague if given early
02
Plague vaccines like Haffkine (1897) offered short-term protection but discontinued
03
Quarantine protocols since 1377 Venice (40 days) evolved into modern contact tracing
04
Flea control with insecticides reduces transmission by 90% in endemic areas
05
Rat-proofing buildings and waste management prevent urban outbreaks today
06
Ancient DNA sequencing in 2011 confirmed Yersinia pestis as Black Death agent
07
Genomic analysis shows Black Death strain Justinian2 lineage from Bronze Age
08
Pneumonic plague R0 estimated 1.3-2.1, bubonic 1.0-2.2 in models
09
Global plague cases now 1,000-2,000 annually, mostly Africa (Madagascar)
10
Case fatality 10% with treatment, 60-100% untreated per WHO data
11
Personal protective equipment (PPE) mandatory for plague responders today
12
Tetracycline prophylaxis for contacts in outbreaks, 7-day course
13
Climate change may expand plague vectors to new regions per ecological models
14
Reservoir hosts include prairie dogs in US Southwest, monitored by NPS
15
Rapid diagnostics via lateral flow assays detect plague antigen in 15 minutes
16
Post-exposure prophylaxis success 90% with doxycycline in animal models
17
WHO lists plague as neglected tropical disease, priority for surveillance
18
Mathematical models predict 1348 Europe spread matched rat migration patterns
19
Antibiotic resistance rare in Y. pestis, but monitored globally
20
Vaccine development ongoing with subunit F1-V antigen trials phase 2
21
Human-to-human transmission rare outside pneumonic outbreaks
22
Dusting sulfur on fleas kills 99% in rodent burrows for control
23
Sentinel rodent trapping monitors enzootic plague cycles annually
24
Black Death immunity waned by third generation, per genetic studies
25
Biosafety level 3 labs required for Y. pestis culture worldwide
26
Madagascar 2017 outbreak killed 243 of 2,417 cases due to delayed treatment
27
CRISPR-based diagnostics developed for field plague detection in 2020s
Interpretation
Modern Understanding and Prevention Interpretation
If our ancient ancestors had merely possessed our modern trifecta of antibiotics, rat-proof trash cans, and a deep understanding of fleas, their great historical lament might have been about poor Wi-Fi instead of the end of the world.
02 · Category
Mortality and Impact27 stats
01
Europe's population was approximately 75-80 million in 1340 before the plague's arrival
02
The Black Death killed an estimated 30-60% of Europe's population between 1347-1351
03
Globally, 75-200 million people died during the Black Death pandemic wave
04
In England, mortality reached 40-60%, reducing population from 6 million to 2.5-3 million
05
Florence, Italy lost 60% of its 110,000 residents, with 10,000 deaths in 1348 alone
06
Venice recorded 100,000 deaths out of 140,000 inhabitants in 1348, a 71% mortality rate
07
Paris saw 50,000 deaths from a population of 100,000, half dying in months
08
Hamburg and Bremen in Germany had 60% mortality, with mass graves evidencing rapid die-off
09
Avignon, France papal seat, lost 33% initially, then more, with Pope Clement VI consecrating the Rhone for mass burials
10
Muslim world in Cairo had 200,000-400,000 deaths in 1348-1349, per chronicler Ibn Khaldun
11
Children under 10 and elderly over 60 had higher mortality rates of up to 70% in affected areas
12
Clergy mortality was 40-60% in England, as they ministered to the dying
13
Laborers and peasants suffered 50-70% mortality, leading to labor shortages
14
Urban areas had higher death rates (50-70%) than rural (30-40%) due to density
15
Recurrence waves in 1361-1363 killed another 10-20% of survivors in Europe
16
Poland's lower mortality (estimated 15-25%) attributed to quarantines and rural dispersion
17
Mesoamerica population unaffected initially, but later plagues killed 90% post-contact, though not Black Death
18
Ancient DNA shows Black Death survivors had CCR5-delta32 mutation conferring partial plague resistance
19
London's East Smithfield plague pit held 2,400 bodies from 1349, indicating 50% city mortality
20
Italy's overall mortality averaged 50%, with some Tuscan villages losing 80%
21
France lost 30-50% nationally, with Normandy at 70% in some parishes
22
Holy Roman Empire regions like Bavaria saw 40-60% deaths, per tax records decline
23
Iberian Peninsula mortality 30-40%, lower due to drier climate less favorable to fleas
24
Scotland's population halved from 500,000 to 250,000 by 1350
25
Bohemia's Jewish communities suffered 80-90% mortality from pogroms and plague
26
Chroniclers like Jean Froissart reported entire villages depopulated in France
27
Post-plague Europe population stabilized at 50-60 million by 1400
Interpretation
Mortality and Impact Interpretation
Europe's grim mid-14th century party, which began as a pandemic with a catastrophic RSVP list claiming roughly half of all attendees, ultimately had the dubious historical distinction of clearing out entire cities, decimating social classes indiscriminately, and proving that population density was humanity's worst wingman.
03 · Category
Origins and Spread30 stats
01
The Black Death originated in Central Asia around 1338-1339, likely from the Mongol Golden Horde region near Lake Issyk-Kul in modern Kyrgyzstan
02
Yersinia pestis bacteria, the causative agent, was carried by fleas on black rats (Rattus rattus) that traveled via the Silk Road trade routes
03
The plague reached the Crimean port of Kaffa (modern Feodosia, Ukraine) in 1346 when Mongol besiegers catapulted infected corpses over the walls
04
From Kaffa, Genoese traders fleeing the siege brought the plague to Constantinople in May 1347
05
The disease arrived in Messina, Sicily on October 1, 1347, aboard Genoese ships, killing nearly all inhabitants within days
06
By January 1348, the plague had spread to Genoa and Venice in Italy, with ships carrying infected rats and fleas
07
Marseille, France was hit in late 1347, with the plague spreading rapidly inland via trade routes
08
The plague entered Spain through the port of Cartagena in 1348, affecting Iberian Peninsula kingdoms
09
England first recorded plague deaths in Melcombe Regis (Weymouth) on August 24, 1348, via ships from Gascony
10
Scotland saw the plague arrive in 1349 after English invasion forces brought it across the border
11
The plague reached Scandinavia by 1349, starting in Oslo, Norway, and spreading via Bergen to Sweden and Denmark
12
Eastern Europe, including Poland and Hungary, experienced delayed spread until 1349-1351 due to quarantine measures
13
In the Middle East, the plague hit Cairo in 1348, killing up to 40% of the population, spread from trade with Europe
14
India and China saw earlier outbreaks around 1330s, with the plague possibly originating from rodent die-offs in China's Yunnan Province
15
Maritime trade networks amplified spread, with incubation period of 1-7 days allowing asymptomatic carriers to travel far
16
Overland caravan routes from Central Asia to the Black Sea ports facilitated initial rodent migration
17
The plague's pneumonic form spread person-to-person via respiratory droplets, accelerating urban outbreaks
18
Flea vectors thrived in the warm, dry summers of 1348-1349, boosting transmission rates across Europe
19
Poor sanitation in medieval cities, with open sewers, aided rat proliferation and plague dissemination
20
The Second Pandemic of plague lasted from 1346 to 1840, with Black Death as its first major wave
21
Genetic studies confirm Yersinia pestis strains from Black Death match ancient DNA from mass graves in London and Germany
22
Plague spread at speeds up to 2-3 km per day in rural areas via migrating populations fleeing cities
23
Byzantine Empire records show plague arriving in Thessaloniki in 1347, spreading to rural Anatolia by 1348
24
In Sicily, 1347 outbreak killed 10,000 per day at peak, driven by ship arrivals
25
Venetian attempts to quarantine ships from infected ports in 1347 failed due to hidden infections
26
The plague reached Paris by June 1348, spreading along the Seine River trade corridors
27
German cities like Hamburg saw arrival in 1349 via Hanseatic League trade ships from Scandinavia
28
Russian principalities experienced plague in 1352, brought by Mongol Tatars from the east
29
African trade routes introduced plague to North Africa by 1348, affecting Morocco and Tunis
30
Climate data shows the Medieval Warm Period ending around 1340, possibly stressing rodent populations and initiating outbreaks
Interpretation
Origins and Spread Interpretation
It seems humanity’s first superhighway, the Silk Road, delivered not just silk and spices but a grisly stowaway: a pandemic that turned medieval trade routes into a devastating network of death.
05 · Category
Symptoms and Diagnosis30 stats
01
Black Death bubonic form had 30-60% fatality untreated, pneumonic 90-95%, septicemic nearly 100%
02
Primary symptom was painful swelling of lymph nodes (buboes) in groin, armpits, neck, 1-7 days post-infection
03
Fever up to 104°F (40°C), chills, extreme fatigue appeared 2-6 days before buboes
04
Gangrenous lesions on fingers, toes, nose caused "black death" name from acral necrosis
05
Pneumonic plague caused bloody sputum, chest pain, respiratory failure within 24 hours
06
Septicemic plague led to rapid blood infection, purpura fulminans, shock, death in 24 hours
07
Delirium, mental confusion common as toxins affected central nervous system
08
Incubation period averaged 3-5 days for bubonic, 1-3 days for pneumonic forms
09
Autopsy of Black Death victims shows Y. pestis biofilm in buboes, confirming diagnosis
10
Victims experienced intense headaches, dizziness from bacteremia early on
11
Vomiting of blood (hematemesis) in gastrointestinal involvement cases
12
Skin turned black from subcutaneous hemorrhages in advanced stages
13
Contemporary physicians like Guy de Chauliac described buboes as "carbuncles" lanced unsuccessfully
14
Tachycardia and hypotension preceded collapse in septic patients
15
Pharyngitis and tonsillar swelling in oropharyngeal plague variant
16
Average illness duration 4-7 days for survivors, death often by day 3-5
17
Post-plague convalescence involved suppuration of buboes lasting weeks
18
Medieval urine tests failed to diagnose, as plague mimicked other fevers
19
Radiographic findings in modern analogs show pulmonary infiltrates in pneumonic cases
20
Necropsy reveals massive splenomegaly, liver necrosis from Y. pestis toxins
21
Extreme thirst and dehydration from fever and diarrhea common symptoms
22
Ophthalmic plague caused conjunctivitis, chemosis, corneal ulcers rarely
23
Meningeal plague presented with stiff neck, photophobia in some cases
24
Laboratory confirmation today via PCR on bubo aspirate detects pla gene
25
Serology shows IgM antibodies 4-10 days post-onset in survivors
26
Culture on blood agar grows Y. pestis in 48 hours at 28°C
27
Black Death victims' teeth analysis shows hypercementosis from stress
28
Differential diagnosis included anthrax, typhus, smallpox by contemporaries
29
Lymphadenopathy measured 1-10 cm, painful on palpation
30
Leukocytosis with left shift in blood smears of acute cases
Interpretation
Symptoms and Diagnosis Interpretation
The Black Plague operated on a grisly sliding scale of doom, where if your choice of symptom was a painful swelling, you still had a fighting chance, but if it was a cough or blackened skin, nature had already sent its final and most emphatic invoice.
report visual · Comparison
What determined plague severity and spread?
High fatality without treatment contrasts with interventions that drastically reduce transmission or improve outcomes.
Early antibiotics cure (bubonic plague)-95%
Flea control reduces transmission90%
Case fatality with treatment10%
R0 (model estimate, range shown)0
Reference
Cite This Report
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APA
Alexander Schmidt. (2026, February 13). Black Plague Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/black-plague-statistics
MLA
Alexander Schmidt. "Black Plague Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/black-plague-statistics.
Chicago
Alexander Schmidt. 2026. "Black Plague Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/black-plague-statistics.
Sources & references
11 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level